Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

Turnbull’s stellar personal ratings take a hit in the latest Newspoll, but the two-party result remains unchanged despite the government’s bumpy ride last week.

The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,069 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  2. TBA @646

    The reason one would compensate the poor for a GST rise at the current time is that not doing so risks driving the economy into recession because it removes the entire increase applying to the poor (who spend almost all they have) from final demand.

    To avoid this one pays compensation, but of course this prompts a question as to why one would raise the GST in the first place.

  3. [TBA @646
    explain to me WHY some groups have to be “compensated” for a tax increase?

    A tax increase should be across the board, not a pick’n’choose affair. Everyones gotta do their bit to pay down Labors debt… everyone.
    ]
    We all come from nothing and get thrown onto the planet. Some get to own large slices of the planet and then complain about paying for the system that gave them everything. They insist the people who got stuff all from the system should contribute just as much as them.

    I say if they don’t understand how much they owe, perhaps they should take their money and live on a deserted island… where it is worth nothing.

  4. With all this talk about raising taxes and/or cutting spending to balance the budget one would think that Australia was running some sort of command economy with taxes at 60%+ of GDP.

    A market economy like Australia’s doesn’t work like that

    The only situation in which the Commonwealth budget can possibly be in balance is when the other two sectors (external and private domestic) in aggregate are in balance.

    This is simply a fact (those who dislike fact should stop now) typically termed the sectoral balance equation; it always holds, but does not imply causation.

    In Australia’s market economy it is the private sector balance that drives the rest. As Paul Keating said the budget will “whirr back into surplus once the domestic economy recovers”. And not before then: that’s the way market economies in fact work; those who prefer the government balance to drive the market side should consider moving to North Korea where such things occur.

  5. EG Theodore – exactly. People with lower incomes spend almost everything they earn. People with greater income and wealth save a lot more and consequently have the actual ability to pay more tax.

  6. So given Labor is at 33% primary and only 23% approve of Bill Shorten then 10% of Labor voters don’t approve of the leader excluding of course consideration of any Greens who might approve of Bill. Interesting Tanya and Albo rate higher however no one with a clear majority like Turnbull did over Abbott so not much point in changing.

    Great to see Labor looking like an opposition over the past few weeks instead of the Greens trying to mumble in the Wilderness by ourselves.

  7. Agreed EG,

    Taxes are not very high in Oz and the (government) budget deficit is not crippling at current levels (bracket creep will fix it). Many argue that now is an excellent time to borrow.

  9. JimmyDoyle @655

    People if greater means will react to a tax increase by (at least in part) reducing their saving. They may also reduce their consumption but by less (typically much less) than 100% of their increased liability.

    Decreases in domestic saving more or less inevitably move the government balance in the direction of surplus (leakage via the external account is of course possible but not that likely or common).

    Decreases in domestic saving were once extremely problematic, however:
    – the way modern banking “works” is such that banks hardly rely on savings for the provision of business finance (to the extent they still provide business finance). Instead loans generate deposits (that too works backwards: the good sold is in fact the term deposit and its basis is loans made).
    – more positively, many modern corporations become self financing rather quickly and thereafter use the financial system only for timing and tax planning

  10. Anyone who’s been awake for the past thirty years will have observed that the bankers capture more of the wealth of the nation(s) as each year goes by.

    The reason bankers have been able to capture everyone’s wealth for themselves is “information superiority”: bankers understand how the financial economy works whilst almost everyone else does not; in particular they understand that:
    – borrowers are their “supply chain”
    – depositors are their customers

    Unless they (first) have made loans they have nothing (no supplies) with which to serve their customers.

    Of course neither the supply chain nor the customers typically understand their role, hence the banks can play both ends against the middle, and so they do.

  12. [657
    Question
    Taxes are not very high in Oz and the (government) budget deficit is not crippling at current levels (bracket creep will fix it). Many argue that now is an excellent time to borrow.    ]

    Totally agree. The tax burden in Australia is 25.6% of GDP. The IPA would like to argue that that number is inaccurate as it doesn’t include superannuation, which is breathtakingly stupid.

    Also I agree vociferously with everything you’ve said so far 🙂

  17. Nicholas@621

    Thanks for pointing this blog post out. A job guarantee for all is a great idea. We need to make sure that everyone in our wealthy (Yes, it is true) society has a decent standard of living, nutrition, shelter and health care, including good mental health care.

    But, equally important for the mental health and self esteem of all, we need to make sure that there is work available for all. Work is where we get a lot of our social interaction and sense of accomplishment; despite the really horrific week I had work-wise last week – it happens – when I thought of giving up, I could not imagine what else I could do with my time and energy.

    So, I think the work guarantee is a brilliant idea. We will need to be inventive, to find work for the diverse range of people in our society, and their diverse range of capabilities, but it will keep the money flowing through the economy, and stem disadvantage.

    An important demographic is older people. While there are great volunteering opportunities, if you are living near below the poverty line, then traveling to that volunteer work may well be beyond your means.

    Another demographic that needs meaningful work is that of those affected by Fetal Alcohol Syndrome and other diseases associated with poor nutrition etc. while in the womb, and in the early years of life.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Early posting today – I woke up at 1:30 and knew I wouldn’t get back to sleep.

    It’s official – Abbott is delusional. And dangerous.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-i-would-have-won-the-next-election-20151208-glifg7.html
    Kelly O’Dwyer opens up about life inside the cabinet.
    http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/growing/kelly-odwyer-says-turnbulls-cabinet-can-be-brutal-20151207-glhynh.html
    Subtlety doesn’t seem to figure in Trump’s armoury. And he has good company in the remaining Republican candidates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-calls-for-muslims-to-be-barred-from-entering-us-20151207-glhws0.html
    Coles chief issues a warning to its suppliers. Again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-chiefs-treasure-island-warning-to-suppliers-20151208-glijm3.html
    Has Apple got too smart by half with its obsession with phone thinness?
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mobiles/apple-debuts-its-own-battery-extender-for-iphone-6s-20151208-glis32.html
    Something to be proud about?
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/un-climate-conference/paris-un-climate-conference-2015-australia-ranked-third-to-last-for-emissions-20151207-glhtxf.html
    Not a good day yesterday for the reputation of the Victorian police force.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/boys-will-be-boys-toxic-sexist-police-culture-haunts-victims-20151207-glhggg.html
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/08/police-chief-commissioner-concealed-priests-sex-abuse-crimes-inquiry-hears
    The creative (innovative perhaps?) accounting behind Turnbull’s and Pyne’s innovation announcement.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/borrowing-cutting-and-boosting-the-creative-accounting-behind-innovation-plans-11b-budget-20151208-glijnm.html
    Oh dear. Has civil war broken out in the Coalition?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ian-macfarlane-defection-liberals-weigh-bid-to-poach-warren-truss-seat-20151208-gli1gl.html

  20. Section 2 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Ross Gittins looks at the workings of the capitalist system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-we-all-fall-for-phishing-schemes-20151207-glhy2d.html
    “View from the Street” examines Clive Palmer’s current financial woes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-palmers-political-career-heads-the-way-of-the-titanic-ii-20151208-gliler.html
    “Work for the dole” is not working and here’s an alternative approach.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/reward-is-better-than-punishment-a-work-for-the-dole-alternative,8467
    Big dollars ride on the festivals of death (like Stereosonic).
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/12/07/big-dollars-riding-festivals-death/
    McDonalds has been named and shamed over junk food advertising aimed at minors.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2015/12/07/mcdonalds-junk-food-child_n_8745978.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
    David Pope with Hockey doing it hard.

    Maybe Ron Tandberg’s on to something here?

    Alan Moir, after a long break, takes us to the troubled USA.

    Mark Knight and the streets of Melbourne.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/07de533daeabf12333fe96fa2757a4a5?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    David Rowe has Joe arriving in the US.

  23. Morning BK. Up early for work too. I was thinking of this quote in relation to Abbott’s claim.

    “I could have been a contender, instead of just a bum, which is what I am now.”

  27. [It’s official – Abbott is delusional. And dangerous.]
    Barely 4 a.m. and my day’s quota of 😆 is already filled.

    Abbott and his crew will be like Hiroo Onoda and his comrades.

    [Hiroo Onoda, Japanese soldier who long refused to surrender

    ….in the jungles of the Philippines for nearly three decades, refusing to believe that World War II had ended………Onoda and a few fellow holdouts hid in the jungles, dismissing messages saying the war was over.

    For 29 years, he survived on food gathered from the jungle or stolen from local farmers.

    After losing his comrades to various circumstances, Onoda was eventually persuaded to come out of hiding in 1974.]
    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/17/world/asia/japan-philippines-ww2-soldier-dies/

  29. Nicholas
    My thanks also for that blog.

    I have been arguing for a job creation scheme, for some time, but I now see that what I call for has a name Job Guarantee.

    I am 100% for it. Mayber this is the issue on which Labor could be courageous and progressive.

  30. Ophuph Hucksake

    ‘Tweren’t me, but Carboor Upper is over the next lot of hills. I am aware there was flooding there as well.

    This morning, apart from piles of leaves everywhere and a general dampness, you wouldn’t know anything untoward had happened at all.

  31. Kelly O’Dwyer says some minorly off key things in that article, but this stands out —

    [O’Dwyer said tax arrangements can discourage a second income earner, which is often a woman, from returning to work and this is an issue the government is looking at.

    “All too often, the marginal financial benefit after tax is simply too low for the second income earner to justify the stress of juggling work, family commitments and loss of time with loved ones,” she said.]

    What on earth does she mean by this? This could only be the case if a couple’s income was taxed as one. Taxed individually, as is the case, there is no disincentive (tax wise) for both members of a couple to work.

    There is a disincentive, tax wise, for one partner to work longer hours because the other person isn’t working.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/growing/kelly-odwyer-says-turnbulls-cabinet-can-be-brutal-20151207-glhynh.html#ixzz3tlR78wqW
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  32. Very interesting chat between Marius Benson and Laura Tingle on Newsradio just now about the Tax Mix and the GST.

    Apparently, the thinking inside the Martin Parkinson/Malcolm Turnbull/Scott Morrison tent is that it is Bracket Creep that is scaring them most, rather than a backlash from the GST. If it is allowed to continue unperturbed by Income Tax Cuts then ~80% of taxpayers will be in the top tax bracket before too long. They see this as an unacceptable situation and so are prepared to wear the backlash from an increased GST so as to be able to deal with it.

    Laura Tingle also said that the politics will be dealt with by the federal government accepting the warm fuzzies from the electorate for cutting Income Tax but push the blowback for increasing the GST onto the States, as it’s ‘their’ tax. Which is why you keep hearing Morrison and Turnbull say that they are just doing the States’ work by investigating an increase to the GST.

    On the other hand, I heard Dr Andrew Leigh reiterating Peter Costello’s point that the Liberal Party promised, hand on heart when the GST was introduced, that it would ‘Never Ever’ go beyond 10%.

    Personally, if I were the Labor Economic team I would go to the election with a comprehensive tax policy that dealt with Property Tax, Multinational Cost Shifting and Super Concessions. As long as it seemed a fair deal to the electorate I think they would look upon it favourably. Also I have no doubt that the obsessive-compulsive economics team of Bowen & Leigh & Burke have been working their butts off on something to release later that ties all the threads together into a seamless whole.

    As far as a Property Tax reform goes, I say that as a result of hearing on the radio today that there are 80000!!! empty properties sitting around the Greater Melbourne area alone with no tenants in them and simply as a tax dodge. This would apply to most of Australia I hazard a guess. To deal with this would also be a fairness issue.

  33. O’Dwyer apparently bases her remarks on Productivity Committee figures – however, elsewhere the example she cites is of a single mother returning to work.

    [Take single mother, Nicola, and her two and three year old children. Nicola earns $31.54 per hour, and sends her children to long-day care at a cost of $88 per day each.

    As she thinks about providing for her family, Nicola has to think about how working will impact her eligibility for Parenting Payment, Family Tax Benefit Part A, the Childcare Benefit and Childcare Rebate. And of course she has to think about the income tax system.

    Scarily, the Commission’s analysis shows that she faces an effective marginal tax rate of 38.6 per cent in working a solitary day. The effective marginal tax rate to work the second day rises to 66.5 per cent, and to 76.3 per cent for the third. The killer, though, is that the effective marginal tax rate approaches 100 per cent for day four. At that point, Nicola is financially better off to stay home rather than work..]

    http://kmo.ministers.treasury.gov.au/speech/007-2015/

    Which means she seriously has no idea what she is talking about. Nicola’s situation isn’t the same as that of a couple, so the tax disincentives O’Dwyer refers to do not apply.

    And, btw, child care costs are NOT part of the taxation system.

  34. Morning all

    Zoomster

    ABC radio reported earlier that a person’s home in the Oven region was washed away yesterday. Did you hear about this?

  35. [GOP Panic? Republican ‘Operatives’ Unleash “Anti-Trump” Super-PAC

    Liz Mair, former online communications director for the Republican National Committee, created a limited liability company in October called Trump Card LLC – a super PAC that could collect unlimited funds from individual donors.

    The anti-Trump effort is focusing on the two states hosting the earliest nominating contests, Iowa and New Hampshire. In an e-mail to supporters, Ms. Mair said the group has reached out to 150 churches in Iowa, 50 community leaders in New Hampshire and media outlets in both states. She said the group is circulating opposition research about his business record, support for socialized medicine and position on abortion, including recent comments in which he declined to say definitively whether the Supreme Court decision legalizing most abortions should be overturned.

    “Where Trump is concerned, many are alarmed at what he says and believes with regard to topics like these when they learn where he really is on these matters,” Ms. Mair said in the e-mail, which was sent before Mr. Trump released his proposal to ban Muslims’ entry to the U.S.]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-08/gop-panic-republican-operatives-unleash-anti-trump-super-pac

  36. victoria

    There was a huge landslide on the road between Myrtleford and Bright. I would think that’s what’s being referred to, but of course there’s still reports coming in.

  37. c@tmomma

    Thr Vic State Treasurer has once again reiterated that they have suggested increasing the medicare levy in order to fund increased health costs. The Vic govt state that it is fairer to do this as revenue is raised in the fairest possible way. ie medicare levy is paid as percentage of taxable income. This is basically what they will put to COAG,

  39. [I have been arguing for a job creation scheme, for some time, but I now see that what I call for has a name Job Guarantee.]

    Can someone please give me a brief explanation as to how the Job Guarantee concept works?

  41. Interesting tweet from George Negus

    [GeorgeNegus
    GeorgeNegus – Verified account ‏@GeorgeNegus

    Malcolm, you scurried home from Paris because climate change had disappeared overnight, right? Brough & McFarlane had zero to do with it!?
    3:58 AM – 8 Dec 2015
    4 RETWEETS4 LIKES]

  45. Seriously if the CFMEU leadership in Vic can be charged with blackmail, this situation would certainly qualify considering that Hockey actually receives huge inducement. In light of his admission yesterday that if he had of stayed in parliament, he would be focussed on getting even with those who brought him down. Truly the chutzpah of this mob is breathtaking

    [Geoff Pearson
    Geoff Pearson – ‏@GCobber99

    Hockey has Blackmailed Turnbull to get his posting to USA turnbull caves in even though hock didnt pass one Budget nor reach any targets
    1:15 PM – 8 Dec 2015
    2 RETWEETS1 LIKE]

  46. Che commodities rout continues –

    [Benchmark 62-per cent grade iron ore for delivery to China’s Tianjin port fell 0.3 per cent to $US38.80 a tonne on Tuesday, according to The Steel Index (TSI), falling for an eighth straight day. It was the lowest on record by TSI since it began collecting data in 2008.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/tianjin-port-ore-falls-to-us3880-a-tonne-20151208-glittr.html#ixzz3tlbcVBFR

    …

    [ Anglo American will shelve its dividend, seek to sell a majority of its assets and cut its workforce by 85,000 as part of a radical overhaul of the Anglo-South African mining house aimed at surviving the prolonged downturn in commodity prices.

    Anglo’s Australian coal and manganese operations could be caught up in the painful restructure announced by the company’s Woollongong-born chief executive, Mark Cutifani ]

    …the market remains nervous about whether the balance sheets of big mining companies are capable of withstanding the worst commodities slump in more than 15 years. Anglo shares fell more than 10 per cent to record lows during London trading, taking its losses for the year to more than 70 per cent. BHP Billiton’s London stock was down more than 6 per cent in late trading, Rio Tinto fell almost 7 per cent and Glencore slumped 6 per cent.

    …the proposed changes would reduce its workforce to 50,000 from 135,000

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/anglo-american-suspends-dividend-may-sell-australian-assets-20151208-glitj7#ixzz3tlan9B1U

  47. Too true. Lol!

    [Je Suis Human
    Je Suis Human – ‏@geeksrulz

    To be fair, Abbott’s campaign for #libspill3 is much more public than Ruddy Rudd’s ruddy campaign. #auspol
    1:15 PM – 8 Dec 2015]

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