The Newspoll result in tomorrow’s Australian, which is presumably the last for the year, has the Coalition’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of 45% for the Coalition (down one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 12% for the Greens (up one). However, Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings have taken a knock, with approval down eight to 52% and disapproval up eight to 30%. Bill Shorten’s ratings plumb new depths with a three-point drop in approval to 23%, while disapproval is up four to 61%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is down slightly, from 64-15 to 60-14.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The penultimate Essential Research fortnightly average for the year is unchanged at 51-49 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 44% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which fail to back up Newspoll’s reported slide for both Malcolm Turnbull, who is at 56% approval (steady) and 23% disapproval (up three), and Bill Shorten, who is unchanged at 27% approval and 47% disapproval. Turnbull’s preferred prime minister lead is at 55-15, barely changed from 55-14 a fortnight ago. There are also questions on preferred Liberal and Labor leader, of which the former finds Turnbull on 42%, up five since the immediate wake of the leadership change, with Julie Bishop down one to 13% and Tony Abbott steady on 9%. On the latter question, Bill Shorten is down three since August to 13%, putting him one point behind both Anthony Albanese (up two points) and Tanya Plibersek (up one). The poll also finds 30% saying Tony Abbott should resign from parliament now and 19% saying he should do so at the next election, compared with 14% who say he should stay as a back-bencher and 18% who say he should return to the ministry; and 44% approving of use of the foreign aid budget to help Pacific nations tackle climate change, versus 40% disapproval.
Keneally (my bold):
[The other reveal in the past two weeks is Shorten’s comfort with a strong team approach. True, a leader probably shouldn’t lead the charge in a situation like this, and unlike the Cayman attack, Shorten didn’t. Shorten, Chris Bowen and Tanya Plibersek kept a focus on policy issues while Dreyfus, Tony Burke and Anthony Albanese kept the drum beat on Brough going.
Shorten’s style of leadership empowers the team around him. It’s a good contrast with the egocentric Turnbull, whose battle-weary MPs most likely eagerly left for their summer holidays grateful to get a break from infighting and division.]
Trouble bubbling away for ‘the Member for Net Worth’ –
[ Nationals plan Macfarlane cabinet return with leadership change
Former industry minister Ian Macfarlane’s intended return to cabinet is being planned to coincide with Warren Truss stepping aside as Nationals leader for Barnaby Joyce early in 2016.
Mr Joyce will then insist Mr Macfarlane be promoted under a new Coalition agreement.
Despite furious Liberals pulling out all stops to stop Mr Macfarlane defecting to the Nationals so he can re-enter cabinet under the Coalition quota system, the former Liberal minister and the Nationals are pushing on unperturbed.
Sources told The Australian Financial Review that Mr Truss, whose retirement from politics has long been expected, will stand down as Nationals leader in March, after the pre-budget expenditure review committee, or razor gang, process is finished.
Mr Joyce has the numbers to replace him and, upon doing so, will need to negotiate a new Coalition agreement with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Mr Joyce will demand the Nationals be given four cabinet positions, one more than the party has now.]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/nationals-plan-macfarlane-cabinet-return-with-leadership-change-20151207-
victoria
Well, Abbott’s warts are all on show now 😉
victoria
[Hockey has Blackmailed Turnbull to get his posting to USA turnbull caves in even though hock didn’t pass one Budget nor reach any targets]
He actually performed a huge service for the Liberal party. How electable would the Libs be if he had passed the budget they wanted ?
Abbott seems to be Donald Trump’s apprentice.
[Business pushes Turnbull on industrial relations, tax
The campaign by business leaders for lower taxes and a more flexible workplace system to meet the challenges of digital disruption has been dismissed by eminent economist Ross Garnaut and the union movement as an exercise in self-interest.
BCA president Catherine Livingstone urged the government to quickly build on Monday’s $1.1 billion innovation statement with workplace relations and taxation reforms to allow business to respond to intensifying pressure as up to 60 per cent of jobs face automation
“Vested interests are becoming more concentrated,” Professor Garnaut told the conference.
“Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey took responsibility for the budget as they should but it was more a big business budget than any other we have seen. Don’t do that to Prime Minister [Malcolm] Turnbull.”
…Mr Oliver said: “My experience and that of most workers is that flexibility is often less of a buzzword and more of a code word for cost cutting.”
Professor Garnaut also slammed big business for instinctively seeking to “defend privilege…to push out innovation if it threatens the old ways things” and being “somewhat uncomfortable” with the challenges of disruption after a comfortable quarter of a century.
…He said calls for a cut in the company tax rate – led by the BCA – were not justified in sectors such as banks, resources, retail and utilities that faced weak competition. ]
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/economy/employment/business-pushes-turnbull-on-industrial-relations-tax-20151208-glib5v#ixzz3tleavXOf
Morning all.
Yes, Abbott’s whiteanting is public but I wonder if that’s because the press gallery aren’t buying a chinese whispers campaign because a) it’s now universally accepted that this is how Rudd whiteanted and b) Abbott himself publicly declared he wouldn’t whiteant and undermine.
I thought that Joe Hockey’s statement that if he had stayed in Parliament he would have concentrated on ‘getting even’ absolutely extraordinary. It shows him to be a very small man, characterwise if not physically.
And how does he think that it would have been reasonable, taking the taxpayer dollar in the form of a Minister’s or backbencher’s salary, to support him while he takes his revenge? Does he think he is ‘entitled’?
My understanding is ‘Privilege’ is composed of the Latin words for private and law, which describes a legal system in which not everyone is equally bound –
[ Billionaire businessman Gautum Adani has personally asked Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to frame a special law that prohibits activist groups from seeking judicial review of environmental approvals for major projects such as Adani’s proposed $15 billion coal mine, rail and port project in Queensland.
Mr Adani said the proposal was placed before the Australian government during an hour-long meeting with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on 4 November.
Now it is enough. They cannot continue to challenge the project – Gautum Adani
“Now it is enough. They cannot continue to challenge the project. They cannot go for judicial review all the time. In OECD countries, you are not given approvals with closed eyes,” he said.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/adani-demanded-certainty-from-turnbull-20151208-gliuk8.html#ixzz3tlhMLQAp
Steve777:
I took Hockey’s remarks to be a pot shot at Abbott. After all it’s pretty clear he’s only hanging around to wreak havoc.
‘To be fair, Abbott’s campaign for #libspill3 is much more public than Ruddy Rudd’s ruddy campaign. #auspol’
Remember how someone from Abbott’s time at Oxford described his fighting style? Wtte: Tony piles on the haymakers, some of them connect, some of them don’t but eventually the opponent was battered into submission. A full frontal attack machine! Malcolm will eventually collapse like the soggy bag of mashed potato that he is, the Coalition will erupt into true ‘chaos and dysfunction’ and Labor will walk it in at the next election. Too easy! 😀
victoria,
The Medicare Levy will not be increased because the Liberals see it as a de facto Income Tax and so they are against raising it.
c@tmomma
That is Abbott’s plan. If he cant have the precious, why should Truffles! And of course, JBishop as his deputy!!
c@tmomma
The libs wont, but I suspect Fed Labor would consider it
C@tmomma
Tones described his style as “whirling dervisher” . He was at least honest enough to admit adopting the style because he was a bit worried about getting hurt so wanted to get it over as quick as possible.
The problem with that style is that if an opponent keeps out of reach for a round or two a “whirling dervisher” will then keel over knackered. Just ask Shorten 🙂
*jabs nation in chest* Hey Australia – have a good look at yourself: you’re rubbish. You’re shit. Stop thinking you’re any good, sunshine. Cos you’re not. You’ve embarassmed yourself, and you’ve embarassed your family. Look at this effort. Now bugger off. Pick up your act – and dont come back here till you can look me in the eye.
[Australia ranks third last on climate change action from the world’s large emitters…The latest Climate Change Performance Index ranks Australia ahead of only Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia based on carbon emissions, trends, renewable energy and climate policy].
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/fragment/australia-ranks-third-last-climate-report
poroti,
Malcolm would like us to think he is a ‘Twinkle Toes’!
The ABS released the National Health Survey results yesterday which reveal 50% of women are overweight/obese.
That is a chronic disease tsunami on the horizon for the coming decades.
poroti:
There’s also relevance deprivation about Abbott’s constant whingeing. After all those years of being able to summon media attention simply by donning high vis and parroting 3 word slogans, he’s bound to be feeling bereft now he has no reason for speaking to the media.
My heart bleeds. 😀
Apparently there was a neurologist who wrote a letter to the Finacial Review who actually pointed out (in medical terms) that Abbott had all the symptoms of being punch drunk. Loss of words periodically, tremors, nervous ricks (tongue) and other symptoms would indicate a clinical diagnosis.
lefty e,
‘ Australia ranks third last on climate change action from the world’s large emitters…’
And if any journo tries to point that out to Greg the Lying Hunt he will simply attempt to bamboozle them with a welter of ‘facts’ that proves Climate Carbon black is white.
Malcolm is one of those flowering weeds on an enormous turdpile called the LNP.
Thanks to them, we’re now an international laughing stock.
And for what? A completely outdated idea of what an economy looks like. This idea of an economy is now so intellectually bankrupt, it can only be explained as a product of corruption by vested interests.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/fragment/australia-ranks-third-last-climate-report
“If I defend the legacy of my government, I’m helping the foundations of the Turnbull government.”
…to crumble.
It’s always what Abbott doesn’t say that is important.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-i-would-have-won-the-next-election-20151208-glifg7.html#ixzz3tll87AoF
A simple question for Mr Abbott in his latest incarnation. Which has taken the largest death toll within Australia: radical Islam, or paedophile Catholicism?
lizzie @ 701:
Shorten’s style of leadership empowers the team around him. It’s a good contrast with the egocentric Turnbull
Lol! Hopefully it will empower them enough to find the courage to challenge. You do know Turnbull is ahead 60-something to 15 as PPM don’t you? Sometimes I think the self delusion runs so deep here you may not be aware of reality.
And even after Turnbull’s “awful week” with Ashbygate, the Macfarlane defection, and Julie’s $30K Perth trip, Newspoll remained stubbornly unmoved at 53-47.
lefty e:
Yes it’s pretty appalling how we’ve passed the buck on GHGEs under a coalition govt. Turnbull no better than Abbott.
[Ms Donna
Ms Donna – @simpsubhswf
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/sean-kelly/2015/08/2015/1449552310/ghost-turnbulls-past …
Once again it seems we have a PM who wanted the title but not the job.]
The Lorax
Your delusion is that the PPM figures are all that matter. As for challengers… in Essential, for example, it was not Labor voters who preferenced others above Shorten as leader.
lizzie
The “concern” by Lorax is admirable
@ The Lorax – polling doesn’t move that quickly.
This week we saw:
Labor up 1% primary in Essential.
Liberals giving 1% to Greens in Newspoll.
Turnbull losing 16 in net positive performance (9 more than Shorten lost).
Shorten gaining 3 on Turnbull for PPM.
Previously, Turnbull had been trending up, now on all 4 metrics we saw this week that growth has slowed, stopped, and started to reverse.
Why would Labor challenge Shorten? Labor know that taking down a personally popular Prime Minister in the first term of government is an extremely difficult task, and that Shorten is doing great at rising to the challenge.
victoria@729
A one trick pony.
Scott B:
As Kevin B noted Turnbull’s surge has finally peaked.
[A one trick pony.]
I wouldn’t have said pony and not as clever as a trick either.
…and the winner of the 2015 “Thomas Paine” Award for the impassioned yet boring repetition of a single idea in a vast number of posts is…The Lorax.
Congratulations Lorax!!!
JW
[ …and the winner of the 2015 “Thomas Paine” Award for the impassioned yet boring repetition of a single idea in a vast number of posts is…The Lorax. ]
Very stiff competition this year!
[And even after Turnbull’s “awful week” with Ashbygate, the Macfarlane defection, and Julie’s $30K Perth trip, Newspoll remained stubbornly unmoved at 53-47.]
Too soon for these to have registered in the polls. There’s often a lag of a week or more for this to happen, as people digest what has happened.
Player One
[Very stiff competition this year!]
Yes! There were a lot of nominees from the R-G-R debates and, of course, Rex Douglas deserves an honorable mention.
In the end it was the disciplined lack of any variety in The Lorax’s posts that got him/her over the line.
Jolyon
An excellent judication. 🙂
Jolyon
Stiff competition brings out the strongest fighting instincts and single minded determination to win at all costs. I reckon it was an Olympic record in cliff jumping.
Total cost of cancelling the East West Link just announced.
1.1 BILLION.
“Before the election, Mr Andrews said that Victorians wouldn’t pay a cent in compensation for his decision to rip up contracts, as they weren’t worth the value of the paper they were written on”
What happened ?????
taylormade
What happened?!! You know what bloody happened!!
[THE former Napthine Government promised the East West Link builder that Victorian taxpayers would cough up compensation even if the courts found the contract was invalid.
Former Treasurer Michael O’Brien signed the “letter of guarantee” to the East West Connect group in September, on the same day the contracts were inked by then-premier Denis Napthine and his transport minister, Terry Mulder.
Releasing the letter today, Mr O’Brien defended the former government’s actions and said the document merely backed up the official contract.
“All the letter of guarantee does is guarantee what’s in the contract,” he said.
Labor has savaged the Coalition over the letter, which Premier Daniel Andrews has described as a joke and a disgrace.
The guarantee poses serious questions about the compensation taxpayers will be liable to pay, no matter if there is a Supreme Court challenge to the contract.]
taylormade
[In a desperate act of economic sabotage, former Liberal Treasurer Michael O’Brien tried to blackmail Victorians into paying for a tunnel that they didn’t vote for. This has come at a significant cost – to his own credibility, and our whole state.
The previous Liberal Government incurred a $339 million bill for the East West Link’s initial costs. These funds have already been spent, cannot be retrieved, and Michael O’Brien is responsible.
Today, as promised, Treasurer Tim Pallas also released the contract between the East West Connect consortium and the State of Victoria, which was signed by the previous Liberal Government on September 29, 2014.
Michael O’Brien rammed through financial close four days later, despite the banks being prepared to wait until December 5 – after the State Election.
The Treasurer confirmed that termination clauses inserted into the contract by the Liberals exposed the State to a payout to the consortium of up to $1.2 billion if Labor won the State Election, even if the courts found the East West Link contract invalid.
Michael O’Brien also signed a secret side letter to ensure these clauses would be enforced, regardless of the outcome of an election or the verdict of a courtroom.
The Department of Treasury and Finance has confirmed that the East West Link project would have cost $10.7 billion – not $6.8 billion as publicly indicated by the previous Liberal Government.
The East West Link was a financial disaster in the making. The Liberals’ own business case says it would have lost 55 cents in every dollar, increased congestion on nearby roads and forced tolls on every freeway in Melbourne.]
taylormade
And as been reported the auditor general report was not impressed with the conduct of the fiberals in doing their side deals just before the election. This mob should never be allowed to get their hands on running the state again. They are a disgrace
lizzie @ 728:
Your delusion is that the PPM figures are all that matter.
Ok then, lets take a weighted poll-of-polls like Bludgertrack at 54.5-45.5 with a seat projection of 94-51. Does that matter?
TPOF
[Stiff competition brings out the strongest fighting instincts and single minded determination to win at all costs. I reckon it was an Olympic record in cliff jumping.]
Agreed. I’m not sure quite why, perhaps it was the sustained overuse of the Lemmings motif, but I really felt that The Lorax wanted it most.
Oh well…off to the salt mine 🙁
I agree that Hockey’s comments about seeking revenge intentionally points a finger at Abbott who is staying for the wrong reason. But it also shows what Hockey likely told Turnbull; if I don’t get a cushy job offer from you I will make your life hell.
So we get a dud of a politician who became a dud treasurer who will go on to be a dud ambassador all the while telling us that the age of entitlement is over.
“Ok then, lets take a weighted poll-of-polls like Bludgertrack at 54.5-45.5 with a seat projection of 94-51. Does that matter?”
Not one little bit because there’s no election right now, or didn’t you notice?
We’re still waiting for the first LNP Budget to be passed.
Rowling says Trump is worse than Voldemort
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-09/donald-trump-worse-than-voldemort-jk-rowling-says/7012180
I love the two pictures juxtaposed.
[Not one little bit because there’s no election right now, or didn’t you notice?]
I never cease to be astonished how this little fact escapes the attention of so many people who really, really should know better.
And while an election can theoretically be called at any time, more than a month needs to pass before the election can be held. A lot can happen in a month when everyone is paying attention – as the poll movement following the ascension of Turncoat demonstrates.