The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is extremely similar to the other five it has conducted since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote by 46.5% to 28.5% (both up half a point), and the Greens on 14% (down half a point on last time). There is no change on either measure of two-party preferred, with the Coalition ahead 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, from a sample of 3500.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The oft-contrary Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves a point in the direction of Labor this week, paring its unusually modest lead for the Coalition back to 51-49. However, both major parties are steady on the primary vote, at 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens up a point to 11%. Nonetheless, an occasion question inquiring about the best party to handle various issues finds the Liberal Party generally viewed more favourable relative to Labor than in October, having improved further in areas of strength (economic management, political leadership, interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers), and pared back (industrial relations) or even eliminated (education and housing affordability) its deficits in areas of weakness. Only on environment and climate change is Labor well ahead of the Liberals, although they would lose points across the board from the inclusion of the Greens as a response option.
Further questions relates to the tax system, which is presently deemed fair by 40% and unfair by 52%, and in need of complete change by 41% and only minor change by 39%. Thirty-six per cent of respondents deemed they paid about the right amount of tax, compared with 40% for “more than fair share” and 11% for less. More detailed probing of attitudes turns up the familiar refrain that wealthy people and corporations don’t pay their fair share. Sixty-seven per cent support a proposed increase in tobacco tax, compared with 24% for opposed.
Pegasus
‘Gay abandon’?
Puhlease, not like the Greens to go for gay bashing!
I see someone tackled the TBA claim that Islam is not a race.
For TBA benefit. Yes that is correct. However racists use the religion of Islam to attack those races they do not like.
I hope I put it simply enough for you.
“you could accept that 457 visas and immigration are both necessary in a country with an aging population, and that it is ok to allow foreigners to invest in Australia, as we invest overseas.”
Most foreign countries outside of the English speaking ones do not provide the freedom to invest that we do. Investing in a business is one thing, foreign nationals owning land another.
And immigration is a ponzi scheme, whatever problems it solves in the short-term it re-enables at a larger level at a later date.
E.g. Immigration requires infrastructure investment requires workers requires immigration requires infrastructure investment etc in a never ending circle, all whilst the environment, indigenous rights and our ability to raise our families with a big backyard close to the city disappear.
MTBW
Brilliant put down of BW. Thus buzzing fly comment. As Vourafakis is a man (Was on last weeks Qanda) your mention of a woman truly proves you don’t know who he is and totally demolishes BW’s argument.
Unknown to you BW has been using the Vourafakis is at fault for everything about Greece and Europe for ages now.
L G H
[ I could agree with that – and yet, I would say they have not been sensibly handled to date by Labor or Liberal. What confidence should a voter have that they will be in the future? ]
It is fairly clear that as well as having better policies in these areas, the ALP also has more credibility on keeping their election promises and implementing their policies than the LNP.
MTBW
His photo in the article is positively positive – hasn’t got his cabbage look, more a hairy beetroot.
[Another MP mentioned as a possible future leaders of the party’s conservative wing is new cabinet minister Josh Frydenberg, who has launched a strong defence of coal exports since becoming Resources Minister and who on Sunday accused the Grand Mufti of Australia, Dr Ibrahim Abu Mohammed, of a failure of leadership in recent comments about the Paris terrorist attacks.
Mr Frydenberg also supported Mr Abbott until the end but is, however, a strong supporter of same-sex marriage, which sets him apart from conservative colleagues.]
OMG a conservative who supports equal marriage. He’ll never gain the love of the RWNJs..
Thanks guytaur!
If only BW was as clever as he thinks he is.
LGH
Of the two major parties Labor is the only choice for progressives.
You can vote Green or another party as much as you like. However the Greens are not going to win Government in the next federal election so we are left with the old old two party choice.
Labor is by far the better choice for government in my humble opinion.
boerwar,
UR on fire!
U sound so bitter. Cheer up 😉
guytaur, 108
The Greens could enter a coalition at really any election in the future (depending on negotiations etc), which would count them as being a part of government.
BW,
Nothing like that old time religious fervour to get you up and about. Keep banging that tambourine, man. It’s driving the natives crazy.
In the weekend papers there was a suggestion that Chinese who wish to ‘invest’ in Australian housing (some say launder their money, but you’re not hearing it from me) are buying very expensive houses and then knocking them down and re-building because conditions on investment say that they must build a new home. I’m sure that GG knows the details better than me.
However, the outcome is that they are destroying some well-cared for homes and, in some cases, of heritage quality, in order to build a new one on the same site. Established suburbs residents not happy.
lizzie
[OMG a conservative who supports equal marriage. He’ll never gain the love of the RWNJs..]
I don’t think he would care but with those RWNJ’s all around I hope he stands up to them.
So much for the “sanctity of the confessional!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/nov/30/priests-victim-used-confession-to-confide-in-abuser-inquiry-told
Player One @ 105
And here you have it in a nutshell!
Every election I number my preferences in the lower house with the knowledge that despite the fact I place them both low down the list it is ultimately my choice of whether to preference Labor over Liberal that has an impact in the swinging seats in which I have tended to live.
Do you think this might be a reason why Labor can get by with being (in my eyes) only marginally differentiated to the Liberals?
Oh sure on the environment and social justice they are definitely, clearly better by a small margin. But on immigration and foreign investment? not that much.
The trouble with a two party system my thinks.
If we had optional preferential voting both parties would be likely to be left off my card as often as not even if just in protest.
Airlines
Of course. Or agreements like they did with Labor for a minority government.
My point was about the Greens in their own right.
L G H
[ Most foreign countries outside of the English speaking ones do not provide the freedom to invest that we do. Investing in a business is one thing, foreign nationals owning land another. ]
Many do, and wWe also have limits on foreign ownership. So what’s your point? You don’t want non-English speaking people to own property in Australia?
[ And immigration is a ponzi scheme, whatever problems it solves in the short-term it re-enables at a larger level at a later date. ]
Only if you are have a “free for all” immigration scheme. We do not. Using immigration to assist refugees, or to fix demographic or skill imbalances is a different matter.
[ E.g. Immigration requires infrastructure investment requires workers requires immigration requires infrastructure investment etc in a never ending circle, all whilst the environment, indigenous rights and our ability to raise our families with a big backyard close to the city disappear. ]
It also helps grow the economy and provides stability and support for older people. And why do you need a big backyard if you live close to the city? If a big backyard is what you want, live in the suburbs. Or in the regions. Plenty of room there.
Some tories reaching back into the primeval slime for their next great white hope.
dutton, cormann, Andrews, Abetz and Frydenberg – Pulease.
[ Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has emerged as a new champion of the Liberal Party’s conservative wing following Scott Morrison’s elevation to the position of Treasurer.
…Mr Dutton is now being discussed as a possible future deputy leader by conservatives who are angry with Mr Morrison as well as deputy leader Julie Bishop, over the events of September.
…Along with Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, Mr Dutton – who has maintained a hardline approach to border protection – is now seen as the most senior conservative in the cabinet following the axing of former ministers Kevin Andrews and Eric Abetz.
…Another MP mentioned as a possible future leaders of the party’s conservative wing is new cabinet minister Josh Frydenberg]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-supersedes-scott-morrison-as-liberal-partys-conservative-champion-20151130-glbdkb.html#ixzz3sxJHuPuX
I should add the above was written by Massola.
BK
Thanks for that link isn’t it disgraceful that these men have histories of abuse and yet life went on for them until now.
I hope the bastards rot in hell!
dave
Perhaps the coalition should split. They could have their very own Golden dawn partu
GG
This is what is driving you and some other Laborites crazy:
[That leaves the leader of the ostensibly progressive Labor Party to grapple for the left-of-centre vote with the ostensibly progressive leader of the Liberal Party. In order to differentiate himself from Turnbull as the PM shuffles leftwards to the centre of the political spectrum, Shorten is forced to move further left and into what is traditionally the Greens’ territory.
As a result, voters are now presented with a Labor Party that seems to have adopted a caricature of the Greens’ agenda – whacking high-income earners, demonising multinationals, taking a nanny-state approach and adopting an overly-ambitious environmental agenda.
Interestingly, as the Coalition has gained in the opinion polls since Turnbull’s return, the Greens’ vote has remained relatively unchanged. This suggests soft Labor voters have shifted to the Coalition, while soft Green voters have not (yet) been persuaded to change to the Shorten’s Green-lite Labor.
It may make sense for Labor to take on a greenish tinge, given that a number of their key Opposition MPs are at risk of losing their seats to Green candidates at the next election. However, the 2016 federal election will be won and lost in the centre, from which Bill Shorten seems to be exiting at speed to make way for a rampaging Malcolm Turnbull.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-30/matthewson-labor's-getting-squeezed-out-of-the-market/6985104
I really must remember to add a sarcastic emoticon to relevant posts of mine 🙁
dave
[Mr Dutton is now being discussed as a possible future deputy leader]
They must be desperate!
Boeerwar
Dissing Yanis and the other rotten Apple was bound to get you offside. 😀
For what it is worth, the Turkey story is probably a hoax. Hope so!
MTBW
[I hope the bastards rot in hell!]
I’d rather see them rot in a real place – like gaol!
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/11/30/11/51/labor-backs-citizenship-law-changes
[Draft laws stripping citizenship from dual national terror suspects have passed federal parliament’s lower house.
MPs wrapped up debate on Monday after the Labor caucus met briefly to sign off on last-minute amendments to the government’s bill.
The legislation now goes to the Senate where it is expected to be cleared by the end of the week with the opposition’s support.]
Player One
“You don’t want non-English speaking people to own property in Australia?”
I don’t know where you get that from – it matters to me not one bit what language people speak, it is foreign ownership that I am against which applies equally to US/UK as to Chinese.
The limits we place on foreign ownership are far weaker than most non-English speaking countries. Yes there are limits but contrast Australia’s policies with Thailand for instance where foreign ownership of land is flat-out outlawed.
“If a big backyard is what you want, live in the suburbs. Or in the regions. Plenty of room there.”
It is this characterisation that I find the most unfair. I am lucky enough to be able to afford to live where I want and get proximity to amenities and the city (e.g. work) & decent block size.
The trend and reality is though, that with immigration this is not likely to be affordable for people of my socio-economic status in the future. I believe that to be a gross injustice, that only the wealthy get to live in convenient locations whilst the poor must make serious compromises that affect their health, opportunities and livelihood.
The fact is, without immigration Australia’s population growth is negligible, and so without it, the poor would not be pushed further and further away from our city centres.
L G H
[ If we had optional preferential voting both parties would be likely to be left off my card as often as not even if just in protest. ]
Then you are simply wasting your vote. Which I guess is your right, even if it is a completely moronic thing to do.
I remember the nonsensical arguments we used to get in with Fran Barlow, who campaigned tirelessly on many issues, while simultaneously encouraging people not to vote at all.
You are not Fran Barlow by any chance???
guytaur, 116
My bad then!
pegasus,
Paula matthewson is a another ex Liberal staffer pushing the pro Turnbull agenda. So paint me as unsurprised. It’s like the other day when you trotted out Schneiders as some sort of reliable source for anti labor gossip. It’s bullshit. You know it. But, you’ll keep posting it because it suits your anti Labor agenda.
Labor hasn’t moved anywhere as far as I can see and probably doesn’t need to. Two months ago Labor was leading in the polls quite comfortably.
Sure we’ve got the current Sun King on the scene. But, no policies, internal rumbles and twelve months till an election.
But, you hit me with your bestest shot.
daretotread@90
Go hide under your bed then!
Airlines
No. It was mine. I should have typed own right. My apologies for the confusion.
BK
Jail it is!
Player One
No I am not Fran or Airlines and only post under my own initials.
I do not encourage people not to vote -> and duly number every box at every election even going to the extend of numbering the hundreds of boxes on the senate ticket as I do not agree with the set preferences of my first choice.
Under preferential voting though choosing not to extend a preference to the majors though is something that would carry an impact.
A Labor party that noticed a huge drop-off in Green preferences to Labor for instance would be quickly looking for a way to restore them as they would face long-term electoral oblivion without them.
L G H
[ The fact is, without immigration Australia’s population growth is negligible, and so without it, the poor would not be pushed further and further away from our city centres. ]
You have just shot your own argument down in flames. We have an ageing population. If we also had low immigration, we would end up like Japan, where they are anticipating having to raise the retirement age to 77 if they do not raise their rates of immigration dramatically.
Pegasus@97
Homophobe!
GG,
Just providing a balance to your anti-Greens agenda 😉
I don’t think the ALP are trying to gain soft Greens by releasing its carbon policies (at the very least, if not other things Matthewson mentioned) because else that would be incredibly bad strategy for Shorten. Why would the ALP commit to releasing a policy which is weaker than the Greens’ policy, and released after the Green’s policy (by a few days), enabling direct comparison between the Greens’ policy and the ALP’s. If these Greens voters are into a strong solution to climate change, why would you switch from a stronger policy to a weaker one? It either reeks of incompetence from Labor, is a coincidence, or isn’t meant to attempt to take Greens voters at all, merely to continue producing a good set of policies for 2016 (which is what I’d assume).
Airlines
Rightly or wrongly people see the Greens as too extreme. So Labor is aiming to bring over swinging voters from the LNP. This is what they need to do to gain government.
I think Labor is going as far as it thinks the electorate will let it do.
Only an election will tell us if that is the right or wrong strategy.
bemused (and boerwar)
Gay = carefree and merry But u know that is what I meant.
Playing the person is all some people have.
Cognitive dissonance on full display 😉
“You have just shot your own argument down in flames.”
Player One my argument was about backyard size not about the ageing of the population or economics so I don’t think MY argument has gone down in flames.
If I tackle your implied bent – that the economy would suffer from low immigration I would say that you are right at least on one measure: GDP.
GDP yes, it would be lower but GDP per capita not necessarily and resource wealth per person certainly higher under a low immigration scenario.
Here it is important to realise that increasing GDP and increasing GDP per capita from the levels we currently have is not firmly linked to increasing quality of life. In fact, because of problems with overcrowding and infrastructure constraints is often associated with the opposite with very little improvement found from increases above a $30-$40,000pa level.
Good afternoon all,
The last thing Bill Shorten can be accused of is being too left in his policy decision making.
Commentators are jumping the gun in running the line labor is moving too far to the left. Shorten is a centre right leader who knows exactly where the labor party should position itself.
More will be revealed in the weeks leading up to Christmas as to where labor under Shorten will position itself. The announcements made recently should not be taken in isolation but will be drawn together in coming days.
Labor is about jobs and fairness and that is where it should place itself and is where it has been working towards.
I am sure some will simply laugh my thoughts away but hey so be it.
Bill Shorten should not be underestimated. Whether the polls turn around at some point is in the lap of the gods and the voting public. Nothing is certain but if labor does fail to get the interest of the public the last reason will be it has gone too far to the left.
Shorten knows that is the last place to be if labor wants to have any chance of success next year.
Cheers and a good evening to you all.
DTT
I would for one welcome an exchange with Russia and any fool country that cares to take them on.
Turkey if they are the aggressor would be flattened within 18 minutes.
Actually 6 minutes…
Good.
I think what the world actually needs is WWIII
Bring it on. Now
Doyley
[Shorten is a centre right leader…]
Now I am confused 😉
Surely, Shorten and Labor present themselves as centre-left?
But let’s not get bogged down with labels lol.
pegasus,
Really, what a sad way for you to spend your dottage.
victoria@121
Vic – I think Elder wrote something a bit back – about how the RWNJ’s in the Coalition are not really Libs at all – just that the LNP is just a ‘host’ that suits their purpose.
Great I say – the more damage they can do to the LNP/ turnbull the better.
dutton as the ‘hope of the side’ the brains trust…
FFS.
Player One
It is this fundamental understanding that increasing GDP is not firmly linked to improved lives that is missing from current economic rhetoric.
Yes selling out our land and jobs and companies helps GDP (this year). And yes, it feels mighty good to bank a $400,000 net improvement in your home value over a handful of years – but the fact is, it is these elements that push up the cost of living and housing ensuring that whatever gains for some are felt even greater as losses for others.
It leads to increasing inequity in our economy and gains solidifying for a few at the expense of the many. Exactly the reason that improved quality of live is a more deserving focus than improved headline economic numbers. It is undue focus on the latter that has us infatuated with mortgaging the future of our grandchildren and delivering them a more crowded, more foreign owned and less equal, more divided & meaner Australia than they would otherwise have inherited.