Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

Roy Morgan maintains its impressive consistency since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, again showing the Coalition lead a few points higher than other pollsters.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is extremely similar to the other five it has conducted since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote by 46.5% to 28.5% (both up half a point), and the Greens on 14% (down half a point on last time). There is no change on either measure of two-party preferred, with the Coalition ahead 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, from a sample of 3500.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The oft-contrary Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves a point in the direction of Labor this week, paring its unusually modest lead for the Coalition back to 51-49. However, both major parties are steady on the primary vote, at 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens up a point to 11%. Nonetheless, an occasion question inquiring about the best party to handle various issues finds the Liberal Party generally viewed more favourable relative to Labor than in October, having improved further in areas of strength (economic management, political leadership, interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers), and pared back (industrial relations) or even eliminated (education and housing affordability) its deficits in areas of weakness. Only on environment and climate change is Labor well ahead of the Liberals, although they would lose points across the board from the inclusion of the Greens as a response option.

Further questions relates to the tax system, which is presently deemed fair by 40% and unfair by 52%, and in need of complete change by 41% and only minor change by 39%. Thirty-six per cent of respondents deemed they paid about the right amount of tax, compared with 40% for “more than fair share” and 11% for less. More detailed probing of attitudes turns up the familiar refrain that wealthy people and corporations don’t pay their fair share. Sixty-seven per cent support a proposed increase in tobacco tax, compared with 24% for opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Re BW @31 – that is an interesting list, and points to the reasons why I can’t see myself ever voting for the Coalition, even if Labor was led by Eddie Obeid. I’ve added comments on the Liberals’ attitudes to the policy areas on your list:

    1. Public education – Liberals favour the expansion of private education.
    2. Public health – the Liberals fundamentally doesn’t believe in it except as the most basic safety net, if that. They would like to dismantle Medicare and probably would if they get three terms.
    3. Climate – denialist and obstructionist, favouring polluters. Has a ‘pretend’ emission reduction scheme in the hope of fooling voters concerned about the issue.
    4. Worker’s pay and conditions: Liberals favour the owners of capital and wish to drive down workers’ conditions, wages and bargaining power.
    5. Domestic and international security – I personally think that most of the actions taken by the Coalition on these matters since 9/11 are bullshit which Labor was too spineless to oppose.
    6. Innovation – Liberals are crony capitalists who don’t want to see their big donors and backers disrupted.
    7. Serious about progressive taxation. Liberals aren’t, they want to transfer as much taxation from the corporate section to low and middle income earners (GST rise / company tax cut).
    8. Disability reform. I expect the NDIS to go the way of Gonski if Turnbull wins next year.
    9. Retirement in dignity. Liberals – only for the wealthy.
    10. The burgeoning population of finance industry spivs – the Liberals would support and protect them.

  2. Airlines

    Are you LGH as well as Airlines?

    My suggestion is that you quit with the ‘honestly’.

    It goes with Right Wing Nut Job trolling like sauce goes with a four and twenty.

  3. Boewar

    Your a good advertisement for voting for the Labor party aren’t you.

    You increase my disillusionment of the left – once I thought it was the remit of the right to have their ears blocked and mouth wagging now truly it is as much a remit of the left.

    Look up SJW and see how people like yourself block meaning in debate.

  4. The biggest mistake Labor has made this year has been to pass CHAFTA.

    Yes. Also Labor’s pissweak position on the unambiguously bad TPP. Only MNCs got to read and help draft the damn thing. Labour, environmental, legal, and scientific organizations sure as hell didn’t. Yet Labor maintains a pretence that it might be worth endorsing. It isn’t.

    How does reinforcing already too strong protections of intellectual property rights help scientists who want to develop new discoveries and treatments? How does it help patients who suffer from severe illnesses?

    How does permitting MNCs to sue governments for having the temerity to legislate and regulate for the wellbeing of their citizens do anything but undermine public purposes?

    The substance of the thing is terrible and the process by which it was drafted and is now being shoved down the throats of people around the world stinks to high heaven. Any progressive party worth its salt would be making robust arguments against it, and advocating policies that would actually spur the development of knowledge, medical treatments, and public good. Hold Mr Bull to his rhetoric on agility and innovation. Oh, you want scientists to be agile? How about getting pharmaceutical companies’ clinical trial results into their hands as quickly as possible instead of locking it away for 7 or 12 years so that an MNC can seek rent from it and more patients can die? You want more innovative ways of protecting the environment and people’s health? Don’t interfere with governments’ powers to legislate and regulate for the good of the public.

  5. Boerwar, 52

    I was being sarcastic with the use of “honestly”. I still stand by my statement that only TBA and ESJ are real trolls, though. I don’t think LGH is anywhere near a troll.

  6. Boerwar

    Speaking of the fibs and greens, what do you make of this analysis?

    [ABC The Drum
    ABC The Drum – Verified account ‏@ABCthedrum

    Labor’s getting squeezed out of the market as Turnbull takes over the centre | @Drag0nista
    Embedded image]

  7. LGH

    Please stop bothering me as you matter to me.

    You are like a bush fly in cattle country: the really pesty ones are the smallest that want to suck the last bit of moisture from the corner of my eyes.

  8. Before it gets lost if there is anyone on here that can answer it I’d appreciate it:

    Which political parties are against widespread issuance of 457 visas, high levels of non-refugee immigration and sale of agricultural and residential land to foreign investors?

    I’d love to know the shortlist because that is where I would direct my vote as whilst there are other important issues to me (like the environment, economy and social justice) the aforementioned are bigger items for me this round.

    As this is a board that discusses Australian politics and polls I thought someone might be able to provide me an answer.

    I am aware that Reclaim Australia probably meet my narrow re-mit but I’d be happier to know if there are any other parties without their baggage.

  9. v

    IMO, the talk is centrist: soothing to middle class susceptibilities.

    But the real action will screw them to death.

    Will the middle class wake up in time?

    Probably not.

  10. All this may ve irrelevant.
    WWIII seems about to start!!!!

    I am serious. there are reports that turkey is blocking the Dardanelles to Russian ships.

    This is EXTREMELY dangerous. I mean Nuclear war dangerous!!!!!!

  11. [Minister of State Mal Brough has made a mistake in answering a Labor question in federal parliament.

    Mr Brough is the subject of Australian Federal Police inquiries into whether he received unauthorised copies of former speaker Peter Slipper’s diaries.

    Asked whether this behaviour was consistent with his role of overseeing parliamentary integrity, Mr Brough referred the opposition to a Federal Court judgment on April 27, 2014.

    An AAP check of the court records found no such judgment.

    However, Mr Brough was mentioned in a Federal Court judgment on February 27, 2014, in relation to the Slipper case.

    Mr Brough’s office told AAP on Monday the record would be corrected.]


  12. Boerwar

    [You are like a bush fly in cattle country: the really pesty ones are the smallest that want to suck the last bit of moisture from the corner of my eyes.]

    Just a lovely comment are you really so sad about the polling results that you have to take your anger on fellow posters?

  13. Boerwar

    Let me change that for you:

    You are sorry that others on here have a different view to you and you just can’t get over it.

  14. [“LGH
    Reclaim Australia is just your sort of person: racist street thugs.”]

    Islam isn’t a race. I know the left desperately wish it was.. but it isn’t.

    Every time we are forced to endure people claiming disliking Islam is racist, we all become just that little bit dumber.

  15. Boerwar, 65

    Now I already know that you think that LGH and I are the same person but how is LGH a racist? Less immigration does not necessarily mean racism.

  16. daretotread @ 62

    I was under the impression that WWIII started some years back being USA+Western Europe+Canada+Aust/NZ+Israel+Asian allies
    vs Russia/China/North Korea/Iran/Iraq/Libya/Syria

    The West will not willingly seed global dominance to China (nor should it) and maintenance of dominance over ME resources is seen as geo-politically necessary to cut off China’s ability to conduct a protracted war.

    I dare say we should be doing everything possible to avoid heating up this war whilst paradoxically preparing for the worst. Despite how much trade might depend on them if the war ever hots up China will be on the opposite side to us and a strengthened military and patriotic policies now would stand us well.

    Australia stands to be a big prize in a future resource constrained world. Small ethnic population to deal with concentrated in area, energy and mineral resources and viable agricultural land. We would be fools to think we were not on a map somewhere in Chinese strategic thinking – in fact, with their efforts to buy our ports and land you can see that they intend to have us one way or another…

  17. TBA, 71

    You are mistaking the official, archaic definition of racism for the more colloquial one used today, which is being used as an easier way to say “ethnoreligious discrimination” (which is a bit of a mouthful). Additionally, as seen by the attacks on Sikhs and the like in the name of anti-Islamic protests, people consider all people with brown skin/people who look Arab to be Muslims, which would be quite literally judging someone’s race and associated (percieved) negative qualities with it.

  18. Airlines @ 50: Why is basically everybody labelled a troll nowadays?

    If you point out the bleeding obvious you are a troll.
    If you deviate from the daily ALP talking points you are a troll.
    If you show any indication of independent thought you are a troll.

  19. L G H

    [ I am aware that Reclaim Australia probably meet my narrow re-mit ]

    Then vote for them, if these things are really top of your list of priorities.

    Or you could accept that 457 visas and immigration are both necessary in a country with an aging population, and that it is ok to allow foreigners to invest in Australia, as we invest overseas.

    The key point is to make sure that all these policies are sensibly handled and that rorts and abuse are minimized. In all the areas you cite, I think you will find that the ALP is fairly sensible.

    But for me, all the policy areas you are worried about are significantly less important than climate change, healthcare, education, taxation reform (and I mean real reform, not just a 15% GST), social and economic equity, and decent employment conditions.

    And in these areas, the ALP is streets ahead.

  20. MTBW
    Only people who can’t stand the heat in the kitchen. Your hero Varoufakis is blathering on Sky as you post!

    Still blaming Germany and France for Greek spending of OPs’ money!

  21. TotallyBigotedArsehat

    [ … we all become just that little bit dumber. ]

    I guess this is where you have an advantage – you’re already there!

  22. Ctari
    Now I know it will 90% blow over but the risk is real and probably not a subject for silly foil comments.

    If Turkey blocks Russia they will have no choce but to attack Turkey, drawing in Nato.

    It may be all bluff – looks as if Ukraine and Turkey may be working together BUT we do not know if the USA has given them a tacit OK.

    Scary stuff

  23. Boerwar

    [Only people who can’t stand the heat in the kitchen. Your hero Varoufakis is blathering on Sky as you post!]

    What on earth are you talking about?

    I wouldn’t know the woman if I walked into her in the street.

    Are you on the grog?

  24. [ Airlines

    Posted Monday, November 30, 2015 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Why is basically everybody labelled a troll nowadays? Honestly, it’s my belief that only TBA and ESJ are accurately labelled as trolls.


    … mmm … you forgot Compact Crank – admittedly he doesn’t come over as a total LoopyLu cranially challenged dropkick like TBA, who comes over as a total bullshitting buffoon that convinces no-one …ESJ … is genderchallenged concern troll seems to spend its time on here with a love-hate tete-a-tete interpersonal relationship with the Growler ….. but CRANK …to me he is a classical fifth columnist type who tries to undermine others thoughts by projecting this reasonable but subliminally subversive approach usually moralising over issues of which he personally does not obey but preaches to others to obey and can be quite convincing to anyone who does not see through his schtik …. …

  25. Reclaim Australia: Patriots’ Front (under various names), EDL, SION.

    Most recently noted for various arrests and a conviction for possessing weapons, bomb making equipment and bomb making instructions.

    Linked to death threats to people who opposed their nasty little anti-mosque techniques in Bendigo.

    Linked potentially to a few of the cannier trolls on PB?

    Some of these followers are some of the loons who dressed like hoplites and resurrected the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

    Others are canny political operators who seek political power on the basis of lunatic hate.

    Some of the people in this racist nether region of utter hatred have links with the very same people who perpetrated the Srbenica massacre.

  26. Boerwar

    I thought we were going to be ignoring each other?

    I asked for a party against high levels or overall immigration but was careful to note that I was not against an uptick in refugee intake or in having a degree of immigration per se.

    I believe a genuine racist would likely take more extreme positions don’t you think?

    But this is somewhat beside the point – where does a patriotic Australian who ISN’T racist direct his vote?

    E.g. one who is against foreign ownership and workers but pro Australia settling the poor and persecuted? (amongst a target of constrained population growth).

    It has been suggested to me that Australia First might be suitable but I have yet to really delve into them – hence coming here for opinions.

  27. Airlines,
    [Why is basically everybody labelled a troll nowadays?]
    A likely explanation is those who throw “troll” around with such gay abandon are finding it hard to cope with increasing levels of cognitive dissonance that are being experienced more and more frequently.

  28. Player One

    “The key point is to make sure that all these policies are sensibly handled and that rorts and abuse are minimised.”

    I could agree with that – and yet, I would say they have not been sensibly handled to date by Labor or Liberal. What confidence should a voter have that they will be in the future?

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