Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

Roy Morgan maintains its impressive consistency since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, again showing the Coalition lead a few points higher than other pollsters.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is extremely similar to the other five it has conducted since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote by 46.5% to 28.5% (both up half a point), and the Greens on 14% (down half a point on last time). There is no change on either measure of two-party preferred, with the Coalition ahead 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, from a sample of 3500.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The oft-contrary Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves a point in the direction of Labor this week, paring its unusually modest lead for the Coalition back to 51-49. However, both major parties are steady on the primary vote, at 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens up a point to 11%. Nonetheless, an occasion question inquiring about the best party to handle various issues finds the Liberal Party generally viewed more favourable relative to Labor than in October, having improved further in areas of strength (economic management, political leadership, interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers), and pared back (industrial relations) or even eliminated (education and housing affordability) its deficits in areas of weakness. Only on environment and climate change is Labor well ahead of the Liberals, although they would lose points across the board from the inclusion of the Greens as a response option.

Further questions relates to the tax system, which is presently deemed fair by 40% and unfair by 52%, and in need of complete change by 41% and only minor change by 39%. Thirty-six per cent of respondents deemed they paid about the right amount of tax, compared with 40% for “more than fair share” and 11% for less. More detailed probing of attitudes turns up the familiar refrain that wealthy people and corporations don’t pay their fair share. Sixty-seven per cent support a proposed increase in tobacco tax, compared with 24% for opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    There’s another mass shooting under way in the US. What a mess that country is in! It appears that “one to three white males in military style uniforms” are active”. Now at least 12 confirmed dead. Now a suspicious device has been found in the building. The perps had ski masks and bullet proof vests.

    The remnants of the National Embarrassment’s utterings are still in the air.
    More from the book “Shirtfronted”. No wonder Abbott got the shove!
    A big wake-up call for air travellers as poor regulation comes under the spotlight.
    Mark Kenny on Brough – Turnbull’s first big test as PM.
    The SMH editorial calls for Brough to be stood aside at least until the police investigation runs its course.
    Michelle Grattan on Turnbull now defending the indefensible.
    The Independent Australia dissects Brough’s reference to the Federal Court decision.,8444
    Bob Ellis on the Descent of Brough.
    “View from the Street” has a ball in asking who is the government’s biggest liability today.

  2. Section 2 . . .

    Here’s an interesting research study – why are Australians so uninformed (misinformed?) on the matters canvassed in this Ipsos survey?
    The methamphetamine taskforce has come to the realisation that we can’t just arrest our way out of this problem.
    51 most commonly misused words – test yourself out. (I had one surprise – the word “stanch”)
    Stephen Koukoulas rejoices yet another reduction in tobacco consumption in Australia.
    A poll in Turnbull’s electorate showed fairly significant support for the removal of women and children from Nauru.
    The Liberal Party is going all out in the by-election in Hockey’s seat.
    What should we do with this prick?
    The US found what to do with THIS one!
    I read this and seethe. All the talk of average inventories and delaying payments to suppliers is an indication of shit management absorbed with dangerous, simplistic measures. And I bet the “smart” ones bought bigger quantities of goods on the basis of a so-called volume price break. Again ignorance of the difference between price and cost come to the fore.
    Now parents are on the rise as the assaulters of Australian school principals. What have we become?

  3. Section 3 . . . including Cartoon Corner.

    This not the sort of journo test drive experience Ford would want!
    Greg Hunt in Paris – a delusional fighting truth instead of carbon!
    Here’s a very interesting lateral thinking approach to the fight against national obesity.
    Doctors must stand up to the cowardice of not standing up to bullies in the profession.
    David Pope is making the most of the opened tin can top hat that he has made a signature feature of his Turnbull cartoons.

    Ron Tandberg still goes to Abbott for inspiration.

    What an absolute ripper from Mark Knight!!
    Great work from David Rowe as he takes Turnbull to Malbrough Country.

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