Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

Roy Morgan maintains its impressive consistency since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, again showing the Coalition lead a few points higher than other pollsters.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is extremely similar to the other five it has conducted since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote by 46.5% to 28.5% (both up half a point), and the Greens on 14% (down half a point on last time). There is no change on either measure of two-party preferred, with the Coalition ahead 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, from a sample of 3500.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The oft-contrary Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves a point in the direction of Labor this week, paring its unusually modest lead for the Coalition back to 51-49. However, both major parties are steady on the primary vote, at 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens up a point to 11%. Nonetheless, an occasion question inquiring about the best party to handle various issues finds the Liberal Party generally viewed more favourable relative to Labor than in October, having improved further in areas of strength (economic management, political leadership, interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers), and pared back (industrial relations) or even eliminated (education and housing affordability) its deficits in areas of weakness. Only on environment and climate change is Labor well ahead of the Liberals, although they would lose points across the board from the inclusion of the Greens as a response option.

Further questions relates to the tax system, which is presently deemed fair by 40% and unfair by 52%, and in need of complete change by 41% and only minor change by 39%. Thirty-six per cent of respondents deemed they paid about the right amount of tax, compared with 40% for “more than fair share” and 11% for less. More detailed probing of attitudes turns up the familiar refrain that wealthy people and corporations don’t pay their fair share. Sixty-seven per cent support a proposed increase in tobacco tax, compared with 24% for opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. The edifice will crack. Sooner rather than later. Labor don’t have to do anything to ‘get out of this situation’. Steady as she goes. Policy differentiation is the key.

  2. MTBW

    Patients and confidence in its message, if its done the work then it will be competitive, if it hasn’t then it wont be competitive.

    The government gets points for being more mature.

    Voters generally are not as progressive as some here think they are, that isn’t to call them conservative but rather more in the middle.

  3. Scott

    The best way for a progressive to vote is 1 Green, 2 Labor, number the rest randomly, and campaign like hell for the empowerment of voters through optional preferential.

  4. MTBW

    There really haven been any real opportunities, the ALP may be at risk of being too quick to oppose things although it tends to pull its head in.

    As I’ve written before the real test for the government will be around the budget.

    Shorten needs to show that he is more than just a politician.

  5. Deloittes came up with an additional $38 billion to the cumulative deficits over the next four years.

    I assume that this was based on a relatively straight forward addition and subtraction set of budget sums.

    Something has got to give!

  6. MTBW

    I don’t think its a big problem although I am not sure how he can fix it, surely he has interests outside of politics, has anyone ever heard him talk about what he likes to do on his weekends off?

    We use to mock Abbott for his bike riding but it gave people a sense that he wasn’t just a politician.

  7. MTBW
    Hang onto hats until the May budget. it will be make or break for Turnbull.

    If he delivers a good or fair budget, Shorten stands no chance, but he may as well stay on – no one will win.

    If the budget is lousy then Shorten employs Keating to write all his speeches and to hold his hand. Then pray.

    If Turnbull goes before the budget, park Shorten in a back room and put Albo out the front to attack Turnbull for cowardice. Work at getting pictures of 4 PMs plus Shorten and Albo and Plibersek. ie Shorten never alone but wrapped around by Hawke and Keating and even the duellers.

  8. MTBW #7

    [It ain’t working so far!]

    Because Turnbull isn’t dumb. He won’t let an opportunity arise 2 months into his PMship, and thus Opportunities are likely to be scarce.

    It took almost 10 years for an Opportunity to arise (and to be successfully used) under Howard.

  9. Take Albo

    We know he likes homemade beers, okay it isn’t the sexiest hobby but it shows a different side to him than just being a polly.

    The same goes for Ed Husic and his liking of tech.

    As I mentioned the other day, in the workplace the popular people are the ones who have non work things to talk about.

  10. Hmmm…some of our best PMs were politicians, full stop, and we heard very little about their activities outside politics – because they didn’t necessarily have them.

    We’re not expecting to sit down and have a chat with Shorten over a glass of wine. We’re expecting him to run a country.

  11. 6

    Optional preferential would actually hurt progressive politics in Australia. Because of the significant number of exhausting ALP or Greens votes that do not preference each other`s party, ALP and green candidates would be at a disadvantage.

  12. Zoomster

    You are missing the point, people want to feel a connection to the person, Shorten is very work focused, which might be what you want in a PM but to many people, they find all work and no play just boring

    Hawke loved his sport and having a drink
    Keating liked fine suits, fine furniture, travel
    Howard liked Cricket and English history
    Rudd liked sport
    Gillard liked education
    Abbott liked sport and being fit
    Turnbull likes art

    Shorten likes what

  13. Voters should get to decide whether their vote exhausts or not. Voter empowerment is a progressive principle.

    It would also force Labor to stop being complacent and start appealing to people who want less inequality of wealth and income, peak carbon emissions before 2030, and close to 100% renewable energy by 2030.

  14. That rule that was locking in the Leadership and Deputy Leader for a term should be dropped it has no relevance in a situation like this.

    If Shorten has any real interest in getting close to where the Libs are forget the rule and resign and give a chance to Albo or someone else like Clare Husic or Dreyfuss to give it a go.

    I am sure that they would not be sitting on a personal rating of 15%.

  15. So the LOTO has to be good looking, charming, charismatic, speak eloquently, be intelligent, be a policy wonk, have a wide range of interests, etc etc…and just be an ordinary bloke.

    It’s amazing anyone’s up to the job.

  16. The last election was essentially a contest between rotten apples.

    IMO, the next election will be much more of a policy election with a lot more policy detail for voters to consider.

    The incumbents have huge tactical and strategic advantages in such an election.

    But they also have the burden of having to juggle between various unpalatable decisions in the meantime.

  17. Zoomster

    Having non workplace interests is what makes a person come across as charismatic, popular people are more rounded than just all work.

    This is why the internet is full of articles showing introverts or nerds how to appeal to a wider audience.

    You make it sound so hard when really it is easier than it looks.

  18. Boerwar@25

    The incumbents have huge tactical and strategic advantages in such an election.

    But they also have the burden of having to juggle between various unpalatable decisions in the meantime.

    This should go down a treat –

    [ Treasurer Scott Morrison has put ordinary Australian workers on notice that they should no longer expect to receive an age pension from the government when they retire.]

    Read more:

  19. The biggest mistake Labor has made this year has been to pass CHAFTA.

    This should have been a major issue since it is an extreme sell-out of Australia’s sovereignty and future prosperity and could have been a valid wedge against the Government.

    It is over things like these that give credence to the Green view that Labor and Liberal are one and the same.

    As an Australian that believes in reducing overall immigration (to keep a lid on population growth – higher refugee intake in the mix ok), protecting our environment and local manufacturing, and disallowing foreign investment in agricultural and residential land and widespread use of 457 visas which party would best represent my vote?

    I believe Labor and Liberal are out over foreign investment & immigration.
    Greens out over immigration (I believe).
    Who’s left?
    (I am wondering if it is only Reclaim Australia that is strongly against selling out the country?)

    Other things on my wish-list would be limiting penalty rates to time and a half, addressing superannuation concessions to the rich and eliminating all subsidies and tax breaks to miners (if that means more stuff gets left in the ground then the wealth will be there to sell at a future date). Any party out there can meet that wish list?

  20. Previously I have voted Green at every election I have been eligible to vote but my vote is up for grabs at this election for the party that has the most long-term patriotic policies that do not involve selling out Australia’s resources or land cheaply and the party that puts policies in place to greatly reduce our use of foreign labour.

  21. What could we expect from Labor, based on current policy settings?

    1. It is serious about public education.
    2. It is serious about public health.
    3. It is serious about climate.
    4. It is serious about worker’s pay and conditions.
    5. It is walking down the same path as the Coalition on domestic and international security.
    6. It is serious about innovation.
    7. It is serous about progressive taxation.
    8. It is serious about disability reform.
    9. It is serious about retirement in dignity.
    10. It is serious about protecting people from the burgeoning population of finance industry spivs.

    These are all weighty policy differentiations. As the next election becomes closer and people start focussing on policy rather than on personalities, these differences will start to bite.

  22. Optional preferential voting would harm the left, which is divided between Labor and Greens, more than it would harm the right, which although also divided between the Liberals and Nationals, is effectively united because of the Coalition agreement – unlike Labor and the Greens, they normally don’t run against each other.

  23. [they should no longer expect to receive an age pension from the government when they retire.]

    Only a person with a more than comfortable income could possibly think like that. And a male, to boot.

  24. Boerwar

    Your point 4. “It is serious about worker’s pay and conditions.”

    Labor’s passing of CHAFTA and support of foreign workers entering the country is a serious hinderance to Aussie citizens pay and conditions.

    Worse, by failing to give ground on penalty rates and other labour laws Labor puts businesses that “do the right thing” at a serious disadvantage to foreign corporations and local businesses that are prepared to flaunt and undercut Australian salaries through the use of foreign labour – both in country and outside.

  25. dave

    Yep. The Crackpot Right lurrved Mr Morrison; did he not stop the boats? Was no cruelty to the benighted miserable who infested his concentration camps too cruel for him? Was he not prepared to sacrifice the jailed children in a Cross Bench negotiating frame?

    Morrison’s main game is ALWAYS to manipulate a trade-off.

    The childcare initiative is classic Morrison: create a thousand losers and ten winners. Then point at the winners: deserving grans!

    The real problem is that Morrison gets macro economics like Pell gets paedophiles.

  26. Your point 3. It is serious about climate.

    Is Labor against Coal mining – as in, is it its policy to disallow any new Australian coal mines (like Adani)?

    If not their climate change stance is window dressing.

  27. LGH

    Sure. I understand that you Greens want to do Varoufakis via SYRIZA: all promises and all disaster.

    Good luck with that.

    And the Liberals want to do the dark satanic mills: screw wages and conditions to the screaming point.

    Good luck with that.

  28. MTBW @ 1: How does the ALP get out of this situation?

    Change leaders to someone who isn’t a robot.

    C@tmomma @ 2:

    Policy differentiation my ar*e. As you are all at pains to point out not many policies have changed since Turnbull took over, but look at the polls!

  29. Prior to the last election I pointed out many, many times that the Liberals ALWAYS revert to the mean.

    And so they have, over the last two years.

    And so, under a merchant banker, they will, until they get turfed out.

  30. Boerwar

    As I said my vote is entirely up for grabs at the next election. I am not sure Greens are strong enough against foreign investment, immigration and labour.

    I honestly wonder given my priorities which way to send my vote, for the first time it is only by default (there being no other suitable option) that my vote will be decided on environmental issues and stay with the Greens.

    If Labor differentiated itself meaningfully on immigration (size of) and foreign investment they would get my vote but these do not appear to be their policy settings.

  31. [Having non workplace interests is what makes a person come across as charismatic..]

    Load of crap. Barak Obama is generally seen as charismatic, and I have no idea what his non workplace interests are. Similarly, Nelson Mandela.

    Indeed, charismatic people can be totally job focussed.

  32. lizzie @ 33,

    ‘ they should no longer expect to receive an age pension from the government when they retire.

    Only a person with a more than comfortable income could possibly think like that. And a male, to boot.’

    Obviously Morrison didn’t get the memo that said that more aged & aging women are homeless and living in poverty now than at any time in recent history.

    Or he doesn’t care.

    I’d guess the latter.

  33. Look, the Christmas decorations are going up, people are worrying over presents and parties, holidays are being planned (caravans are already sitting beside houses), we are already into the fire season…

    And you think voters would be in the slightest bit interested in what Bill Shorten does for recreation?

  34. LGH

    Stop kidding yourself.

    I would not give a stuff for your vote in any election.

    Any poster who uses the word ‘honestly’ to describe their views is almost always some form of troll.

    Go vote Liberal or Greens, as far as I am concerned. It comes to the same thing: a waste of space.

  35. Why is basically everybody labelled a troll nowadays? Honestly, it’s my belief that only TBA and ESJ are accurately labelled as trolls.

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