Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

Roy Morgan maintains its impressive consistency since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, again showing the Coalition lead a few points higher than other pollsters.

The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is extremely similar to the other five it has conducted since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote by 46.5% to 28.5% (both up half a point), and the Greens on 14% (down half a point on last time). There is no change on either measure of two-party preferred, with the Coalition ahead 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, from a sample of 3500.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The oft-contrary Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves a point in the direction of Labor this week, paring its unusually modest lead for the Coalition back to 51-49. However, both major parties are steady on the primary vote, at 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens up a point to 11%. Nonetheless, an occasion question inquiring about the best party to handle various issues finds the Liberal Party generally viewed more favourable relative to Labor than in October, having improved further in areas of strength (economic management, political leadership, interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers), and pared back (industrial relations) or even eliminated (education and housing affordability) its deficits in areas of weakness. Only on environment and climate change is Labor well ahead of the Liberals, although they would lose points across the board from the inclusion of the Greens as a response option.

Further questions relates to the tax system, which is presently deemed fair by 40% and unfair by 52%, and in need of complete change by 41% and only minor change by 39%. Thirty-six per cent of respondents deemed they paid about the right amount of tax, compared with 40% for “more than fair share” and 11% for less. More detailed probing of attitudes turns up the familiar refrain that wealthy people and corporations don’t pay their fair share. Sixty-seven per cent support a proposed increase in tobacco tax, compared with 24% for opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,455 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. bemused
    Why so narky?

    Now I think the Dardanelles story is from a fake news site – which is good.

    However if it HAD been true I do not think my bed would protect me.

    This is not really a joking matter. You are being arrogant. If war between Russia and Nato broke out then chances are China would be drawn in. We might need to start learning how to patch clothes and darn socks. We will not need those coal mines.

  2. Player One@137

    L G H

    The fact is, without immigration Australia’s population growth is negligible, and so without it, the poor would not be pushed further and further away from our city centres.


    You have just shot your own argument down in flames. We have an ageing population. If we also had low immigration, we would end up like Japan, where they are anticipating having to raise the retirement age to 77 if they do not raise their rates of immigration dramatically.

    Raising the retirement age if people over 50 struggle to get a job.

    There is a massive addition to the workforce available if only prejudices could be overcome.

    457s are a scam.

  3. Pegasus,

    Because, you’re confused you think other people have a problem.

    It’s sad to see your decline, comrade.

  4. Pegasus@142

    bemused (and boerwar)

    Gay = carefree and merry But u know that is what I meant.

    Playing the person is all some people have.

    Cognitive dissonance on full display

    Typical humourless Green. 😛

  5. L G H

    [ Player One my argument was about backyard size not about the ageing of the population or economics so I don’t think MY argument has gone down in flames. ]

    Who cares about backyard size? You can have one as big as you can afford for all I care. Your argument was about reducing immigration, but (as I have pointed out) in an ageing population that is simply going to hurt people – mostly the working classes, who will find themselves unable to retire at all, or unable to afford the health care they need when they do.

  7. ACTU on the TPP agreement:

    http://www.actu.org.au/actu-media/media-releases/2015/actu-calls-for-tpp-certainty-as-analysis-shows-australia-negotiated-the-worst-deal-on-local-jobs
    [Australian Unions are deeply concerned with aspects of the recently concluded Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, with an analysis of the text showing that Australia has negotiated the worst deal on safeguards for local jobs out of any of the 12 countries that are a part of the agreement.]

  8. daretotread@151

    bemused
    Why so narky?

    Now I think the Dardanelles story is from a fake news site – which is good.

    However if it HAD been true I do not think my bed would protect me.

    This is not really a joking matter. You are being arrogant. If war between Russia and Nato broke out then chances are China would be drawn in. We might need to start learning how to patch clothes and darn socks. We will not need those coal mines.

    You have a track record of impulsively jumping at shadows.

    Your world must be a scary place.

  10. dave

    [Mr Dutton is now being discussed as a possible future deputy leader]
    He has been going down hill then . 6 yerars ago he was seen as leader material.From 2009.

    [Nationals block Liberals’ rising star Peter Dutton
    … the Opposition Leader’s insistence that the former policeman is potentially a future leader of the party

  13. The Greens are a damned nuisance as far as Labor is concerned.

    Just enough support by way of seats in the Senate to have to be listened to and accommodated; just enough support to rob Labor of first preference votes; just enough clout in inner-city areas to challenge Labor in what were erstwhile safe Labor seats and just useful enough to support Labor with preferences – for the most part – at crunch voting time.

    The Greens are a distraction that Labor can do without.

    It is unlikely they will ever gain power in their own right in the near to middle future (if ever) yet, because of their dispersed numbers (vis-a-vis the Nationals), will never be able to do the damage to the LNP that they have done to Labor.

    I see no point in bagging the Greens as they have the luxury of all ideas without ever having to do the hard graft of putting policy into place.

    There: Now you Green lot can go for me!

    I have no qualms with the Green agenda, as quite few of my former Labor voting friends now actually support the party.

    But this support comes at the cost of keeping the conservatives in power.

  14. Steve

    I assume you are having a lend of me.

    WWIII could go nuclear. The USA is run by nutters. UK also these days. Once UK seemed sane but no longer.

    Fo Australia China is the biggie.

  16. daretotread@164

    Steve

    I assume you are having a lend of me.

    WWIII could go nuclear. The USA is run by nutters. UK also these days. Once UK seemed sane but no longer.

    Fo Australia China is the biggie.

    Lots of things “could” happen.

    We “could” all be obliterated by a big meteor tomorrow.

  20. [ Now I think the Dardanelles story is from a fake news site – which is good. ]

    Not so much fake news dtt, but seriously sensationalist and being picked up by other such sites.

    The complex conflict in Syria has so many players with so many different motivations that it is, really, a very dangerous one for the world. And the link to NATO via Turkey is an important factor.

    However, closing the Bosphorus or Dardanelles would be a remarkably OTT stupid escalation by Turkey.

    Popping a Russian jet for a few seconds territorial overflight was bad enough. Even if the Russians had ignored previous warnings the Turks should have let that slide as the effect has been to “legitimise” the Russians installing S400’s in Syria which has introduced a major destabilising factor into the mix.

    And I think its making it a LOT harder for the major players to appear to be cooperating and keep things polite. Turkish internal politics seems nasty and getting worse and i pity the poor bloody Kurds.

  24. [ Mr Dutton is now being discussed as a possible future deputy leader ]

    Now THAT is an example of something that must be from a fake news site!!

  25. Re the “aging population problem” . As it is largely due too the baby boomers then surely it will be temporary. As the large demographic bump moves through the rapid rise should also see a rapid fall as the boomers drop off the perch.

  26. imacca@174

    Mr Dutton is now being discussed as a possible future deputy leader


    Now THAT is an example of something that must be from a fake news site!!

    Newscorpse?
    Most of their ‘news’ is fake.

  27. Bemused

    Not at all.

    I have been following the Russia – Turkey story because it is a major tension point and also because our MSN is so weak on the issue.

    WWIII is only one/two nutters away from reality. I remember vividly the Cuban crisis – I was very young but I recall it.

    The last two years has seen a return of the cold war tension, but at least in the USA and UK, none of the wiser heads in a position of strenght. Obama is OK but in his lame dog phase. Billary is a war monger. The repubs are stark staring nuts.

    The thing is that strategically I think SOME in the USA/NATO want to stike Russia (and China) soon before they get any stronger. This is dangerous. While probably Obama was NOT in the loop, I cannot see how Turkey could have gone all gung-ho without the impicit backing of powerful people in NATO.

  28. poroti@175

    Re the “aging population problem” . As it is largely due too the baby boomers then surely it will be temporary. As the large demographic bump moves through the rapid rise should also see a rapid fall as the boomers drop off the perch.

    It is a problem that has within it it’s solution.
    Let those that want to, and are able to, work.

    So much skills, knowledge and experience just thrown away, often long before retirement age.

  29. Tricot
    [But this support comes at the cost of keeping the conservatives in power.]
    It’s always handy to have a scapegoat 😉

  30. daretotread@177

    Bemused

    Not at all.

    I have been following the Russia – Turkey story because it is a major tension point and also because our MSN is so weak on the issue.

    WWIII is only one/two nutters away from reality. I remember vividly the Cuban crisis – I was very young but I recall it.

    The last two years has seen a return of the cold war tension, but at least in the USA and UK, none of the wiser heads in a position of strenght. Obama is OK but in his lame dog phase. Billary is a war monger. The repubs are stark staring nuts.

    The thing is that strategically I think SOME in the USA/NATO want to stike Russia (and China) soon before they get any stronger. This is dangerous. While probably Obama was NOT in the loop, I cannot see how Turkey could have gone all gung-ho without the impicit backing of powerful people in NATO.

    You see the world as a very scary place.

    I choose not to live in fear.

  31. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, November 30, 2015 at 4:47 pm | PERMALINK
    they should no longer expect to receive an age pension from the government when they retire.

    Only a person with a more than comfortable income could possibly think like that. And a male, to boot.]

    Lizzie

    That was my first reaction too – with expletives added.

    But when I read the article I came to the conclusion that Morrison didn’t actually say that. What he said was that the pension should only be given to people who do not have enough to live on in retirement, as a kind of safety net.

    If I’ve got that right I can’t see very much to argue with.

    Pity really. I cannot stand the man.

  32. [ But Mr Dutton is now being discussed as a possible future deputy leader by conservatives who are angry with Mr Morrison as well as deputy leader Julie Bishop, over the events of September. ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peter-dutton-supersedes-scott-morrison-as-liberal-partys-conservative-champion-20151130-glbdkb.html

    Oh FFS! Does the stupidity of the RWNJobbies is the Libs know no bounds?? I have to share a planet with these idiots?? 🙁

  33. Player One

    A great deal of good comes from having a decent backyard -> a place to keep a pet, play with the kids, grow a garden…

    And I don’t think you have firmly demonstrated that an ageing population is going to hurt people and frankly claims that people will be unable to retire at all or unable to afford health care are preposterous.

    You have been sold a pup by the media – we are quiet capable of taking care of our “one time only” bulge in baby boomer demographics by simply following a combination of technological advancement (with improved productivity and efficiency) and if necessary working every so slightly longer – BUT the reality is that technological advancement and the world economy is having a huge impact on demand for Labor so this is likely never going to be necessary.

    When we have immigration driving population growth you will never cure what would have been a one time issue, and instead will have the issue driving policy forever more.

    A bit like the lady that swallowed the cat to chase the rat…

  35. Ran into a Deakin YR@W (2005-2007) comrade-in-arms during the Peoples’ Climate Rally on Friday in Melbourne.

    He is a unionist through and through. There he was marching down Swanston Street holding a Greens banner.

    His words: “I have finally seen the light and joined the Greens.”

  37. Imacca

    A quick look at the map shows that Russia CANNOT let itself become land locked, so blocking the Dardanelles as in WWI is an invitation to war.

  40. poroti

    [ Re the “aging population problem” . As it is largely due too the baby boomers then surely it will be temporary. As the large demographic bump moves through the rapid rise should also see a rapid fall as the boomers drop off the perch. ]

    It is partly baby boomers, but mostly increased life expectancy. And so it is largely a permanent shift. Check out Japan – it’s frightening. Elderly people routinely live in extreme poverty or even suicide because they find they cannot afford to live. Japanese aged 60 and over were the fastest growing age group among suicide cases.

    But yes, you are correct – the problem will stabilize itself if immigration is reduced. We can stabilize on our current population but will have to pay the price of a reduced economy and increased retirement age.

    Note that I am not really arguing one way or the other – just pointing out the implications of various policies for people who don’t seem to understand them.

  41. L G H

    [ And I don’t think you have firmly demonstrated that an ageing population is going to hurt people and frankly claims that people will be unable to retire at all or unable to afford health care are preposterous. ]

    Check it Japan. You’ll be appalled.

  42. L G H

    [ You have been sold a pup by the media – we are quiet capable of taking care of our “one time only” bulge in baby boomer demographics by simply following a combination of technological advancement (with improved productivity and efficiency) and if necessary working every so slightly longer ]

    20 years longer.

  45. All this pumping up of the tyres of Dutton and Frydenburg tells you that no one expects Abbott to returns as the Conservative champion of Australian politics.

  46. All this pumping up of the tyres of Dutton and Frydenburg tells you that no one expects Abbott to returns as the Conservative champion of Australian politics.

  47. All this pumping up of the tyres of Dutton and Frydenburg tells you that no one expects Abbott to returns as the Conservative champion of Australian politics.

  48. Zoomster @ 41

    Indeed, charismatic people can be totally job focussed.

    For a school teacher who has been around election campaigns you seem to know bugger all about people.

  49. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is appearing on 730 tonight.

    (I’m unilaterally adopting the American system of referring to all former presidents as President So & So).

    Let’s lift the level of discourse and refer to PM Rudd in civil language from here on.

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