The latest fortnightly result from Roy Morgan is extremely similar to the other five it has conducted since Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote by 46.5% to 28.5% (both up half a point), and the Greens on 14% (down half a point on last time). There is no change on either measure of two-party preferred, with the Coalition ahead 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on previous election preferences. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends, from a sample of 3500.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The oft-contrary Essential Research fortnightly rolling average moves a point in the direction of Labor this week, paring its unusually modest lead for the Coalition back to 51-49. However, both major parties are steady on the primary vote, at 44% for the Coalition and 35% for Labor, with the Greens up a point to 11%. Nonetheless, an occasion question inquiring about the best party to handle various issues finds the Liberal Party generally viewed more favourable relative to Labor than in October, having improved further in areas of strength (economic management, political leadership, interest rates and treatment of asylum seekers), and pared back (industrial relations) or even eliminated (education and housing affordability) its deficits in areas of weakness. Only on environment and climate change is Labor well ahead of the Liberals, although they would lose points across the board from the inclusion of the Greens as a response option.
Further questions relates to the tax system, which is presently deemed fair by 40% and unfair by 52%, and in need of complete change by 41% and only minor change by 39%. Thirty-six per cent of respondents deemed they paid about the right amount of tax, compared with 40% for “more than fair share” and 11% for less. More detailed probing of attitudes turns up the familiar refrain that wealthy people and corporations don’t pay their fair share. Sixty-seven per cent support a proposed increase in tobacco tax, compared with 24% for opposed.
alias,
Let’s not.
Wow! the evening Uhlman report was spot on. Pointing out exactly how Morrison is failing as Treasurer on revenue.
Player One
“Check it Japan. You’ll be appalled.”
Japan’s GDP and GDP per capita and any measure of income you choose to use indicates it has more than sufficient resources to care adequately for its elderly population.
If it is seriously due to Labor shortages (baring in mind unemployment in Japan is above its historic averages) then workers could be repurposed to aged care.
The fact is Japan is prioritising other factors other than its elderly that failed to save enough for retirement. If it wanted to adequately take care of them it could. It is CHOOSING not to, not UNABLE to. You are insinuating it is unable to afford to which is incorrect.
Additional point – a large number of the elderly in Japan have altzimers/neurologial disorders owing to their advanced age – this is coupled with an amazingly large number of troubled youth that are failing to engage with the world (the shut-ins). I would say it is these SOCIAL factors that play mostly into what you see – it certainly is not the economic factors.
So Spud Dutton is a rising star.
If that is true then I am NASA astronaut. I better go and see if the space suit still fits.
Ground control to Major Jeff!
You know, as I say to my kids, ‘Patience is a virtue’, and I reckon that’s what Labor have to practice right now. No one is going to want to shoehorn Malcolm Turnbull out of the job he’s just got anytime soon. In fact, it’s my honest opinion that we may at last, at the next election, get a contest of ideas and policies, and may the best team win!
Either side isn’t that far away from the other in reality, except for the sorts of things that others have listed here, which are substantial in some respects, but in other meta policy areas the parties are similar.
For example, in the Innovation and STEM space. Now I don’t believe that people will think only one party has a lock on this, and a more mature electorate, which is the result of the recent upheaval in a tangential way, will now study each sides offerings.
The findings of the JWS research that Phillip Coorey wrote about on the weekend prove that people haven’t completely bought the Turnbull Bill of Goods, and so, bottom line, I still retain hope for the future after the Relief Rally peters out and in the run-up to the next federal election.
Houston we have a problem
The virtue I would advocate is “She who hesitates is lost”. Get rid of Shorten as soon as possible. He’s dead wood. He will be turfed eventually so just get on with it.
If you ever doubted that LNP ministers are out of touch with even the most basic human faculties then their consideration of Dutton as possible leadership material is damning proof they are.
alias,
Any other tunes on that jukebox?
I wonder if Mal will check up on his Shares whilst he is in France. Doesn’t he have a chunk of shares in the French NBN Fibre to the Home mob.?
When a country is unable to feed itself or fund the necessities because there are not enough workers or resources outside of those deployed to aged care there is a serious demographic problem that needs immigration to fix.
Otherwise immigration is only necessary to maintain headline (and meaningless in terms of quality of life) GDP figures that sound good politically and yet are totally divorced from reality but do massively benefit those that have already entrenched a position of privilege in Australian society. E.g. existing wealthy landowners and businesspeople Gerry Harvey, Rupert Murdoch etc.
That is the reason the big end of town is behind immigration and the reason we have it as a policy platform of both Liberal and Labor. Many more minor voices are against it for good reason.
GG
“Tanya, you’ve been on my mind”
for starters.
‘Labor’s getting squeezed out of the market as Turnbull takes over the centre | @Drag0nista http://ab.co/1Q6Rb1G‘
Because we’re all Privateers now, or sumfink else Albrectsian, eh, Dragonists?
Yeah, we all want Education and Health Privatised, and the return of Alms for the Poor dispensed by the Churches instead of Pensions, here in the ‘Centre’. No room for Labor at all anymore!
Poppycock and drivel from a Liberal fangirl who dresses herself up as a voice of common sense to Gen X & Y.
MTBW at 1
“How does the ALP get out of this situation?”
Hunker down & continue with strong policy. This is no flash-in-the-pan honeymoon remember, a great many people are willing a popular Turnbull to succeed following the disasterous Abbott years.
L G H
In Australia’s case, the benefit of a larger population would make industries such as the car industry viable as the cost of production could be offset.
The other advantage would be it would increase Australia’s political and economic influence over the issues which directly or indirectly affect Australia.
A population of about 1% of the global population should achieve these objectives.
A couple of trotters caught my eye in race 2 at Melton on Saturday night.
One was DEAD CAT BOUNCE which won and paid $1.80
The other was ABBOT SHALL which ran nowhere at $38.80
jeffemu
When we were in Paris 2013 I heard an Australian guy tell an American how wasteful our government were for advocating FTTH. The American answered “what, you don’t have that!”
[alias
Posted Monday, November 30, 2015 at 7:30 pm | PERMALINK
The virtue I would advocate is “She who hesitates is lost”. Get rid of Shorten as soon as possible. He’s dead wood. He will be turfed eventually so just get on with it.]
Patience grass hopper. There are no instant solutions in this situation.
There was probably just a side issue but big yards featured.
I’m all for big back yards and for freedom of choice in design and density so long as you pay for what you get.
For example if you are sitting on a big block in a new mixed density development you should be paying rates and land tax based on the highest possible density for that land in the locality, not what you’ve actually got.
Local government amenity should then be based on the higher density. A pet peeve of mine is residents in a low density older suburb expecting the amenity and services of really high density, while fighting density improvement tooth and nail.
Foil and Colander put away for the day.
No WWIII today so I’ll worry about infectious diseases sweeping the World for the rest of the day.
Darn .. I don’t regard a switch to Tanya Plibersek as an “instant solution” but rather the first sensible step in a long pathway back to political viability in the face of the utterly transformed national landscape post Turnbull’s arrival as PM.
Re Alias @199: Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is appearing on 730 tonight.
I assumed that you were reporting from an alternate Universe. Although I also thought the same when I saw DTT’s post on the Dardanelles.
I wouldn’t mind being in the ‘Alias’ Universe, although DTT’s might be a bit scary.
[ Let’s lift the level of discourse and refer to PM Rudd in civil language from here on. ]
Ok – civil it is. Rudd is currently reminding us all of why he needed to go.
Sadly, on the waffling scale Turnbull leaves Rudd for dead!
My only issue with higher density is that in many cases the blocks are either too large for the block, hence they come with only a minimal outside space or the units themselves are too small.
These problems are a large part of the problems affecting Docklands and Southbank, I will add that developers are often their own worst enemy for they knowing full well that they will face opposition to anything too large, still produce developments which are excessive.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 4m4 minutes ago
Who is this guy on telly behaving like he’s at a job interview?]
I assume this refers to the former member for Griffith.
Won’t someone give the guy a job so he can naff off and stop bothering us?!
L G H
[ Japan’s GDP and GDP per capita and any measure of income you choose to use indicates it has more than sufficient resources to care adequately for its elderly population. ]
You are correct. By raising the retirement age to 77, they expect to have enough resources – both economic and demographic.
What will we have to raise our retirement age to? I’m guessing, but I’d be fairly sure it would be higher than that, given our smaller economic base.
Do you want to work to 80? I don’t.
I note that in the latest poll The Greens’ vote went backwards by 0.5%, while Labor’s increased by 0.5%, as did the Coalition’s.
But hey, The Greens are going to totally take over! 😉
[These problems are a large part of the problems affecting Docklands and Southbank, I will add that developers are often their own worst enemy for they knowing full well that they will face opposition to anything too large, still produce developments which are excessive.]
I’m pretty sure i read analysis that Docklands is very poorly planned. foolish developers, foolish and weak planning authorities but most stupid of all the buyers in bad developments, irrespective of density.
These snide comments about Prime Minister Rudd underscore the very point I’m making.
Australia will never have the sort of self-respect a leading democracy should have until it can accord proper respect to those who have held the most senior political office. (I would grant an exception in relation to a PM who delegated the role to his chief of staff.)
Today’s Mumble on whether the switch to Turnbull made the Liberals more re-electable next year.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/blogs/was-the-liberal-party-wise-to-change-leaders-from-abbott-to-turnbull/story-fnvslhoe-1227628040483
Since there’s a discussion about increasing immigration/emigration (or decreasing immigration/emigration) going on here right now, I’m going to provide some statistics about the demographics of Australia from the ABS without opinion.
Right, so the latest data we have on Demogrpahics is here:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0
This includes population data until Mar 2015.
The information relevant to this discussion are:
– Australia’s population grew by 1.4% during the year ended 31 March 2015.
-Natural increase and Net Overseas Migration contributed 45% and 55% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 31 March 2015.
Where ‘Natural Increase’ means the number of births minus the number of deaths; and ‘Net Overseas Migration’ means everybody who comes to Australia from overseas and stays in Australia for more than 12 months over a 16 month period, minus everybody who leaves Australia and stays away from Australia for more than 12 months over a 16 month period.
It’s important to note that N.O.M. encompasses both people who apply for Temporary and Permanent Visas under the above ’12/16 month’ rule. For data that breaks down N.O.M. by type, we only have data as late as 2012:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3412.0Main%20Features52013-14
Relevant information includes:
– People who held Temporary Visas made 52.2% of N.O.M., with the largest subgroups being: 457 Visas at 13.9%, Visitor Visas (incl. Tourists and Business Visitors) at 13.8% and Working Holiday Visas at 16.4%.
– People who held Permanent Visas made 28.2% of N.O.M., with the largest subgroups being: Family Visas at 12.2% and Skilled Workers Visas at 13.8%.
– People who were New Zealand Citizens received 444 Visas, and made up 17.6% of N.O.M., which makes New Zealand Citizens the largest subgroup in the N.O.M. in 2012.
On Population data in 2012:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3101.0Main+Features1Dec%202012
Relevant information includes:
– Australia’s population grew by 1.8% during the year ended 31 December 2012.
– Natural increase and net overseas migration contributed 40% and 60% respectively to total population growth for the year ended 31 December 2012.
CTar1
Get that foil out quick smart. World government, Agenda 21 population control and the UN is on the march in Paris. That is what all this Climate change stuff is all about dontja know ?
alias:
Australians are anti elitist like that – we tend to call things as we see them.
Personally I am much more concerned at the real and present misogyny expressed daily in our media and mainstream culture than what a handful of nobody anonymous commenters here think about our former PMs.
Also, I apologize in advance for the long post.
Re MB @216: About 1% of the global population should achieve these objective
That would be about 73 million, comparable to the present populations of Britain, France, Germany, Turkey, somewhat less than that of Vietnam, about 3 times greater than our current population (we reach 24 million early in the New Year).
For what it’s worth, I agree.
Player One
[Do you want to work to 80? I don’t.]
Yeah and just imagine how many jobs are out there for you even if you did. Who would hire someone that would inevitably have the chronic problems that come with oldster status ? It is crappy enough for 55+ let alone 75+ .
Steve777
Its a nice round number and as you say it is similar to the countries you mentioned, however we would need to identify via a large scale research project what the country’s capacity is and what would be needed to avoid adversely affecting the environment.
Pegasus @ 185,
‘ Ran into a Deakin YR@W (2005-2007) comrade-in-arms during the Peoples’ Climate Rally on Friday in Melbourne.
He is a unionist through and through. There he was marching down Swanston Street holding a Greens banner.
His words: “I have finally seen the light and joined the Greens.” ‘
ETU was he?
And, hey, guess what? A lot of ‘Unionists through and through’ vote Liberal too. It’s a free country, and whilst there is a cohort of ex-Labor voters who turn to The Greens, they are by no means swelling the ranks of The Greens’ voters fit to burst if today’s Morgan poll is any guide. 🙂
That’s fair Confessions. Can’t argue with that as it’s a very significant issue. However, don’t you think that “calling things as we see them” is not inconsistent with affording some respect to people who have achieved a certain high office? Simply civility.
alias
[ Australia will never have the sort of self-respect a leading democracy should have until it can accord proper respect to those who have held the most senior political office. (I would grant an exception in relation to a PM who delegated the role to his chief of staff.) ]
What you think about Abbott is precisely what many think about Rudd. Both were disasters. Both needed to go.
Thankfully, apart from self-indulgent television appearances like the one we just witnessed, and self-indulgent speeches to RWNJ audiences in the UK, they have largely done so.
We are all better off for it.
Very concerning if this proceeds.
[Starting from January, people who do not vaccinate their children will not receive the childcare benefit, childcare rebate and the family tax benefit part A payment.
In Victoria, children will be banned from attending child care unless they are vaccinated.
In response, some anti-vaxxers have raised the prospect of starting private centres because the new laws mean they will be unable to afford childcare.]
http://www.buzzfeed.com/alexlee/new-anti-vaxxer-daycares-are-showing-up#.drJq34JaMD
(Mike @ 216)
I received some inside info about the NBN rollout here in Central Qld. I am sworn to secrecy at this point in time but waste and programs going nowhere and certain matter about to hit the fan were the main topic of the conversation.
c@tmomma
[ I note that in the latest poll The Greens’ vote went backwards by 0.5%, while Labor’s increased by 0.5%, as did the Coalition’s.
But hey, The Greens are going to totally take over! ]
The Greens provide a safe sheltered environment for those not yet ready to face up to reality. As we close in on elections, more and more people realize they actually need to make up their minds to make any difference.
alias:
I’m sorry but Rudd’s behaviour in bringing down a Labor govt doesn’t afford him respect in my view.
And the trashing of civility, or at least doing it in a very public way, is down to ABbott and the Liberals like Turnbull who stayed silent thereby endorsing his behaviour. Nothing that is said here about either Abbott or the former member for Griffith will do one thing to impact the public discourse.
guytaur @ 194,
‘ Wow the evening Uhlman report was spot on. Pointing out exactly how Morrison is failing as Treasurer on revenue.’
Have you also noticed how the Economic Geography graduate is also trying to soften his image by posting selfies of ‘ScoMo at Tay Tay’s concert’? :O
Actually I keep wondering why Labor, who have more economic firepower in Dr Andrew Leigh’s little finger than the Liberals have in their whole Economic Ministerial team, can’t land more blows on them?
Anyway, good on Uhlmann for starting the process of taking some paint off the golden boys.
GG
[They are what they are but deliver 80% of theit preferences to Labor.]
There is a school of thought that it’s going to be considerably less than 80% with a Turnbull v Shorten contest.
[ (I would grant an exception in relation to a PM who delegated the role to his chief of staff.) ]
As i would grant an exception in relation to a PM who delegated the role to his overdeveloped ego. 🙂
c@tmomma, 227
Please stop cherrypicking polls. The Greens’ vote is falling (or more accurately flatlining for the most part) just as the ALP’s is in the aggregates, for an obvious reason: Turnbull.
By the same token, the Greens have managed a 3.4% bounce from the last election, whereas the ALP has had a 2.3% fall.
Re C@t @228: even in a large sample (3,500) like this, the margin of error is about 1.7%. You can’t draw any conclusions from jumps of 0.5% one way or the other.