Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention from Essential Research, which also finds support for tightening of paid parental leave and improved personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The weekly Essential Research result records no change in Labor’s 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady on 41%, 10% and 1% respectively. The poll also finds Joe Hockey’s standing improving since the budget, with his approval rating up four to 34% and disapproval down to 44%, and strong support for the end to paid parental leave “double dipping”, with 56% in favour and 27% opposed. Another question finds 42% in favour of more US military aircraft in Australia, presumably boosted by the inclusion in the question of the words “to counter China’s growing military power”, while 32% were opposed. There are also questions on climate change and voluntary euthanasia (72% in support, 12% opposed).

We also have The Advertiser reporting on a ReachTEL-commissioned poll of 690 respondents in the Liberal-held Adelaide marginal of Hindmarsh, conducted for the ACTU. It produces the somewhat surprising finding that Labor has gone backwards since the election, with the Liberals leading 48.1% to 36.3% on the primary vote after exclusion of the undecided, compared with 46.2% and 38.0% at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

987 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 20
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  1. vic,

    It’s not about what I believe or what you believe.

    People under our system of law are innocent until proven guilty.

    The accusations you raise have been tested previously in a court. They have been found wanting.

    Produce some actual evidence and not just uncorroborated assertions and may be you might have a case.

    But, you won’t do that because damning Pell on the basis of your feelings is the only true justice system you support and understand.

  4. Counsel assisting normally hold all the aces (and a few extras up the sleeve, so Gail Furness SC’s cautious words suggest some uncertainty as to what precise evidence of knowledge will emerge.

  5. @GG/53

    Pointing out someone that is a fool is not ‘mindless abuse’, it is truth.

    Now the ‘mindless abuse’ tactic is on the other foot tonight, it’s funny, you can dish out ‘mindless abuse’ to others, but call out ‘mindless abuse’ when you ‘apparently’ receive it.

  6. I’m unsurprised by the PPL results. They demonstrate the limits of the scheme (and its support) when funded by the government.

    It should be properly implemented as a workplace entitlement, rather than Labor’s or even Abbott’s (now discarded) hybrids.

  8. GG

    Pell has not been charged in any court of law. He failed in his duty of care. He was more concerned about protecting his paedo friend, than those young children. He is a disgrace

  10. GG

    [I see being able to use the English language effectively is now a crime in your eyes.]

    When a member of the clergy issues a denial, the fact that it is “emphatic” means nothing.

    It’s also ironic that the Catholic Church is now bleating about the rule of law, when they spent decades assiduously evading it. If they had handed pedophile priests over to the police, instead of shuffling them from one parish to to the next, they wouldn’t be in this predicament.

  11. Queensland seems to be open to the idea of removal of GST on sanitary items. I’m guessing NSW might be open to the idea too.

    I’m kind of hoping that nearly every state agrees on it and push it back on Abbott.

  12. GG’s defence of Cardinal Pell reminds me of Rep. Charles Wiggins’s fierce defence of Richard Nixon’s role in the Watergate coverup, which he had to abandon when the “smoking gun” tape came out.

  13. kakuru,

    I have already pleaded guilty to using words in a meaningful way.

    I see you are trying to be a copy cat but not succeeding because you seem stuck in a rhetorical flush and logic impaired paradigm. These can only be rectified with hours of repeating the theme song of the Carlton Blues.

    Being learned will only make you glib, comrade.

  14. Kakura

    On a number of occasions at the NSW Cuneen Commission I sat next to a “good” priest on many occasions (the only priest in the Diocese with ticker enough to attend, but a bit of a naive bloke).

    Two of his colleagues were extensively cross examined, one a psychologist/ priest, the other a leading NSW solicitor/priest.

    Both blatantly lied, over and over again. Often the gallery ‘s laughter at the lies had to be quietened by the Commissioner.

    On many occasions the priest sitting next to me whispered “gee that sounds like he’s telling fibs”. I would reply “he’s lying through his teeth John”. John would nod in agreement with his body language screaming sadness.

    Sadly, all over the world many bad people have entered Holy Orders and in their behaviour have made a mockery of Christianity. Some of them have risen as high as the Vatican in the scheme of things.

  15. I’m not religious or a Catholic but I’m willing to defend them on a few principles, but I don’t think Pell deserves their protection at all. He should go and face the inquiry.

  17. ☣Barón Emilio Death☢
    53m53 minutes ago
    ☣Barón Emilio Death☢ ‏@krONik
    Hockey charges taxpayers $270/day to stay in his wife’s house. I say he’s a double dipping, rorting, leaner!

  18. GG

    Pell is hiding under the skirt of the Catholic Church.

    He should go home and face the commission.

    While working with Catholic institutions, I’ve met plenty of good people. If the archdiocese was run purely by the good people I’ve met, we would have had a lot less of the incidents that were reported by the media.

  19. [ Thank goodness we live in a society ruled by law and not capricious decisions made by the ill informed. ]

    So you agree Pell should return to Australia to face charges?

  20. shellbell

    [Counsel assisting normally hold all the aces ]
    As one of the Bludger Lounge’s legal eagles could you tell us the gist of the position “counsel assisting” ? Thanks in advance.

  21. Raaraa,

    Pell has actually personally appeared previously and also given video evidence once to this RC. He has also said he would do whatever the RC asks him to do including returning to Australia if asked.

    So any notion that he is being protected by the Church is rubbish. Pell is An Australian citizen entitled to all the privileges that entails.

    He has not avoided participation in this RC in any way.

  22. psyclaw

    [Both blatantly lied, over and over again. Often the gallery’s laughter at the lies had to be quietened by the Commissioner.]

    Both issues “emphatic denials”, no doubt.

    Thanks for your first-hand insight… very illuminating. There are good priests around. Unfortunately, for decades (centuries?) Australia was stuck in the mentality that every priest was a “good” priest. A priest could do no wrong. If a child told the authorities about being abused by a priest, the poor kid was thrashed to within an inch of his/her short life. Or he/she had their teeth pulled out. And Pell was just whistling Dixie all along…?

  24. P1,

    What charges? There are no charges and it is highly unlikely that there will be any charges.

    Laugh, I nearly started.

  25. Is this for real?

    [Charles Croucher
    Charles Croucher – Verified account ‏@ccroucher9
    Same Sex marriage legislation will be introduced by @billshortenmp, & seconded by @tanya_plibersek – expect it on the notice paper tomorrow]

  26. [ What charges? There are no charges and it is highly unlikely that there will be any charges. ]

    There are so many possibilities …

    Criminal conspiracy. Obstruction of justice. Failure to report “mandatory reporting” offences. Accessory before and after the fact.

    I think a decent case could be made for any of them. I’m happy to leave it up to the courts to determine his guilt or innocence, but if Pell gets away without even being charged, it will be a travesty and a disgrace.

  27. Tanya Plibersek
    ✔
    @tanya_plibersek

    Bill Shorten & I have just given formal notice we will present a bill for marriage equality to the Parliament next wk
    5:42 PM – 26 May 2015

  29. Surprised that Labor isn’t making any ground in Hindmarsh. Hard to see where they could win an extra seat in SA if they can’t get the western suburbs back.

    I guess it’s not impossible that they could sneak Boothby, but I would have thought that was priority #2.

  31. Pell was supposed to be the temporal and spiritual leader of Australia’s Roman Catholics.

    The very best you can say about him is that he was a dud at both.

  32. Boerwar

    [ Pell was supposed to be the temporal and spiritual leader of Australia’s Roman Catholics.

    The very best you can say about him is that he was a dud at both. ]

    But at least he was a wizard with the finances!

  33. P1,

    Unfortunately for you, “You think” is not a well established legal principle in this country.

  36. [ Unfortunately for you, “You think” is not a well established legal principle in this country. ]

    So you don’t want the courts to be the arbiter? I can certainly understand why you would be afraid of the outcome!

  38. BK @ 85

    Those fine upstanding citizens were wearing high-viz workwear with hopefully company logos on them.

    From the video and CCTV content from the train and other passengers the plod should be able to easily identify these charming gentleman.

    Name and shame them and hopefully the penalty will include losing their jobs.

  39. CTar1

    Re your comment earlier about Concetta Fierravanti-Wells . Jason Clare’s comment makes me think he has a similar opinion. When asked about her appointment he started with “Connie’s a nice person but……..” 🙂

  40. tell us something we dont know

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Treasurer Joe Hockey should not be ruling out particular aspects of the tax system that could be reformed, such as GST, superannuation concessions and negative gearing, KPMG’s chairman Peter Nash says.

    Mr Nash said when the tax white paper was first announced by the Coalition he was optimistic that “substantial reform” could be achieved.

    “I have become less optimistic we will be able to achieve that, as the Treasurer and Prime Minister have ruled out certain aspects of reform,” Mr Nash said at a briefing of business journalists in Melbourne.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/tax-reform-is-doomed-say-kpmg-bosses-20150526-gh9xnc.html

  43. In other news, former NSW minister Chris Hartcher is now a developer lobbyist, after being investigated by ICAC for accepting illegal donations from developers.

    [FORMER minister Chris Hartcher, suspended from the Liberal Party over ICAC accusations including alleged involvement in illegal donations from developers, has been cleared by the parliamentary ethics adviser to take a lobbying job with a Central Coast developer.]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/suspended-minister-chris-hartcher-to-become-developer-lobbyist/story-fni0cx12-1227370039290

  46. Abbott will accuse Shorten of trying a ‘stunt’?

    [“I know this private members bill will not have the universal support of my colleagues,” Mr Shorten said.

    “It will challenge the deeply held personal beliefs of MPs and senators on both sides of politics.

    “This is why Labor members have the freedom to vote their conscience, a freedom Tony Abbott is currently denying his party.”

    Even with a conscience vote in the Labor Party, Mr Shorten does not have the numbers to pass his bill.

    Rather he is using it to urge the Prime Minister to grant a conscience vote to his MPs, something the Coalition already appears to be edging towards.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-26/bill-shorten-to-move-private-members-bill-to-allow-gay-marriage/6499124

  47. About time Labor stepped up. All should enjoy the same right I had to say no to marriage (or even yes). I had a choice. Having no choice because of one’s sexuality is far too backward for 2015. We should all be issued with banjos if this doesn’t get up. (And I suspect it won’t under this government).

  48. MTBW,

    You might think it old fashioned, but I believe in people being innocent until proven guilty and the rule of law.

    They are principles worth the fight.

  49. poroti

    [ “Connie’s a nice person but……..”]

    I have severe reservations on even that bit.

    Clare being very charitable.

  50. P1,

    So you believe in trial by media and being popular with the chattering classes as the only test of guilt?

    Says everything about your shallowness.

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