Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention from Essential Research, which also finds support for tightening of paid parental leave and improved personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The weekly Essential Research result records no change in Labor’s 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady on 41%, 10% and 1% respectively. The poll also finds Joe Hockey’s standing improving since the budget, with his approval rating up four to 34% and disapproval down to 44%, and strong support for the end to paid parental leave “double dipping”, with 56% in favour and 27% opposed. Another question finds 42% in favour of more US military aircraft in Australia, presumably boosted by the inclusion in the question of the words “to counter China’s growing military power”, while 32% were opposed. There are also questions on climate change and voluntary euthanasia (72% in support, 12% opposed).

We also have The Advertiser reporting on a ReachTEL-commissioned poll of 690 respondents in the Liberal-held Adelaide marginal of Hindmarsh, conducted for the ACTU. It produces the somewhat surprising finding that Labor has gone backwards since the election, with the Liberals leading 48.1% to 36.3% on the primary vote after exclusion of the undecided, compared with 46.2% and 38.0% at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

987 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. davidwh

    [The QLD government has done little other than reinstate Union rights.]

    Hang on, it has replaced the little tyrant and his weird Attorney General.

    That is a big thing (though down be the electors)

  2. [ It looks like Morgan is consistent with ReachTel in QLD. The QLD government has done little other than reinstate Union rights. ]
    But what about the goat races

  3. davidwh

    I do not follow the details of Qlf politics but I sort of like Stasia in her ordinary speech compared with the former pretend Napoleon.

    I worked in Brisbane and had a very educative briefing I gave to Newman when he was Lord Mayor. Amongst many politicians I briefed I was surprised by his total disinterest in any outcomes apart from the “political” angle.

    A very ignorant man who had no idea he was ignorant.

  4. TPOF
    Posted Wednesday, May 27, 2015 at 11:52 pm | PERMALINK
    geoffrey @ 932

    We can do something about giving LGBT people the same right as any other adult in Australia to decide whether they want to be married or not. We cannot stop people murdering each other in Syria.

    It’s not a hard concept to understand that we do what we can; not decline to do something because we can’t do something else that is not related.

    —-yes we can stop deaths in syria – we are directly culpable – if we protesting as passionately and effectively about intertantional afffairs this country might grow up … i am sorry but whatever its merit is ssm seems like a clayton’s or substitutional issue or symbolic politics in this country. it may or may not have merit but it doesn’t seem to add up or deserve the attention it gets – for those directly involved it seems too self regarding … there are people on winter streets tonight that is just as important

  5. DN I think we have gone too far for that. Collectively we expect our governments to do a great deal these days but we don’t seem to want to pay for it.

  6. geoffrey

    [it may or may not have merit but it doesn’t seem to add up or deserve the attention it gets – for those directly involved it seems too self regarding … there are people on winter streets tonight that is just as important]

    This is very illogical argument. One assumes based on malice.

    Obviously homelessness is a more vital immediate human issue.

    But do you think the homeless would be housed if straight people decided to not allow themselves to be married?

    Likewise, I am not sure how stopping marriage equality will solve homelessness.

    Presumably you are not of the view that government can do many things at once.

    I am sure the time spent on SSM is only long because of the need to overcome opposition from people like you. if you dropped your opposition it could be dealt with in a few hours.

  7. [ DN I think we have gone too far for that. Collectively we expect our governments to do a great deal these days but we don’t seem to want to pay for it. ]
    like no cuts to health or education if we just cut the waste by cutting funds health and education

  8. swamprat @ 966

    Thanks. You saved me the effort of responding – although I’m not sure I was going to.

    I still can’t get over the idea that something should not be done because something else unrelated is more important. It is the kind of dissembling sophistry that conservatives use all the time. It certainly is important to some people and there is no reason why it cannot be addressed quickly and cheaply – certainly compared to the great intractable challenges of our society.

  9. TPOF

    It is such a silly argument but used by politicians very often.

    Abbott today implied that they could not face SSM because for the next few weeks they had to masturbate small business, or something Liberal like that.

  10. Personally I think it would be great to spend the unfunded $80 billion on health and education plus more for aged-care and the NDIS but we all have to pay for it if that is what we expect. It would mean everyone would have to contribute at some level. Only problem is every person and group wants some other person or group to contribute but not them.

  11. swamprat
    Posted Thursday, May 28, 2015 at 12:31 am | PERMALINK
    geoffrey

    it may or may not have merit but it doesn’t seem to add up or deserve the attention it gets – for those directly involved it seems too self regarding … there are people on winter streets tonight that is just as important

    This is very illogical argument. One assumes based on malice.

    Obviously homelessness is a more vital immediate human issue.

    But do you think the homeless would be housed if straight people decided to not allow themselves to be married?

    Likewise, I am not sure how stopping marriage equality will solve homelessness.

    Presumably you are not of the view that government can do many things at once.

    I am sure the time spent on SSM is only long because of the need to overcome opposition from people like you. if you dropped your opposition it could be dealt with in a few hours.

    ——-that’s not what i said ….. glad you could find an enemy here must be satisying … one night i’m a closet liberal the next ——- “people like you” ha ha ha …. i mean what i say, it will pass and society will be very much the same …..

  12. davidwh

    [It would mean everyone would have to contribute at some level. Only problem is every person and group wants some other person or group to contribute but not them.]

    Well of course if we want good community outcomes we have to pay tax. Australia is relatively a low tax country which is why our services are so poor. It ain’t rocket science.

    I would suggest it is the wealthy (both individual and company) in Australia who are the most tax-shy and with the power to protect their wealth; Item 1 the Liberal Party of Australia.

  13. . It is the kind of dissembling sophistry that conservatives use all the time. It certainly

    ———now one is a conservative!!! ha ha ha

    i love freedom of speech here and also the very strnage habit of talking about in third person someone active on blog … very strange where did you learn that condescending manner – or is it political gang? in a branch?

  14. geoffrey

    I am not a member of the ALP.

    I think the ALP is a confused, unfocussed and a not very competent party.

    It’s just that the LNP is far worse.

    It is the curse of the stupid westminster system……

  15. “a ratio of debt to GDP at about 50 or 60 per cent is a pretty good result looking around the world”
    Prime Minister Tony Abbott, 18 March 2015

  16. swamprat

    thanks. i feel we have something in common probably i lot

    for myself the very urgent pressing issue is branding political identity in near future … ideology etc ….

  17. paaptsef
    Posted Thursday, May 28, 2015 at 12:53 am | PERMALINK
    “a ratio of debt to GDP at about 50 or 60 per cent is a pretty good result looking around the world”
    Prime Minister Tony Abbott, 18 March 2015

    ——amazing … did he actually say that

    italy is 230%

    i personally think 60% is too high – abbott has run up a good many percentage points of that figure

  18. [ personally think 60% is too high – abbott has run up a good many percentage points of that figure ]
    Debt was 13% of GDP when Abbott declared budget emergency

  19. geoffrey;

    How on Earth is Australia’s public debt at 40% of GDP? It was 30% gross debt when Abbott came into office, and less than 15% net then, too.

    Damn, Abbott must have the reverse-Midas touch!

  20. [“Dear Liberal trolls…

    The confirmed HOR votes for SSM are:

    Labor – 45
    Liberal – 5
    Greens/Other – 3

    Remind me again who the problem is here, especially given the LNP have the majority vote on the floor of the house?”]

    Who is the Problem?

    You mean like… Democracy is the Problem?

    If you lefties don’t like the will of the Australian Parliament perhaps you should call for a Plebescite to let the Australian people decide… like I have.

    Lets put this Gay Marriage thing to bed once and for all.

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