Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention from Essential Research, which also finds support for tightening of paid parental leave and improved personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The weekly Essential Research result records no change in Labor’s 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady on 41%, 10% and 1% respectively. The poll also finds Joe Hockey’s standing improving since the budget, with his approval rating up four to 34% and disapproval down to 44%, and strong support for the end to paid parental leave “double dipping”, with 56% in favour and 27% opposed. Another question finds 42% in favour of more US military aircraft in Australia, presumably boosted by the inclusion in the question of the words “to counter China’s growing military power”, while 32% were opposed. There are also questions on climate change and voluntary euthanasia (72% in support, 12% opposed).

We also have The Advertiser reporting on a ReachTEL-commissioned poll of 690 respondents in the Liberal-held Adelaide marginal of Hindmarsh, conducted for the ACTU. It produces the somewhat surprising finding that Labor has gone backwards since the election, with the Liberals leading 48.1% to 36.3% on the primary vote after exclusion of the undecided, compared with 46.2% and 38.0% at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

987 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. markjs

    [Abbott & got him to agree to a conscience vote..]
    It didn’t sound like that to me. Lots of weasel words but no “yes” .

  2. [It didn’t sound like that to me. Lots of weasel words but no “yes” .]
    Abbott just doesn’t want the bill that passes to be one that wasn’t sponsored by at least some Liberal MPs.

    He doesn’t want Labor to get the credit for it.

  3. rossmcg
    It’s all the better if that’s how his actions are taken. Especially if that’s the media’s interpretation. Can they claim a breakthrough today and then try to pretend it never happened if in a few months Abbott is still stalling?

  4. So from what I’ve been reading basically Abbott doesn’t want SSM to happen without him taking credit for it and will no doubt be trying to throw a spanner in the works anyway.

  5. “Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted around Australia earlier this week shows New South Wales Premier Mike Baird increasing an already strong lead won at the recent New South Wales election: L-NP 58.5% (up 4% since April) cf. ALP 41.5% (down 4%). Baird has also strengthened his lead as ‘Better Premier’: Baird 70.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 29% (down 2.5%).

    “In Victoria the six-month honeymoon period continues for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor Government with the ALP 56.5% (up 2.5% since April) still well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews has also increased his already strong lead as ‘Better Premier’: Andrews 63% (up 3.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 37% (down 3.5%).

    “Further north in Queensland, the Opposition has enjoyed a resurgence in recent weeks to reclaim the lead from new Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk with the LNP 52% (up 4.5% since April) now clearly ahead of the ALP 48% (down 4.5%). The ongoing troubles with former North Queensland Labor MP Billy Gordon are clearly a headache for the Palaszczuk Government although Palaszczuk’s personal appeal hasn’t been negatively impacted with Palaszczuk 61.5% (unchanged since April) still clearly preferred to LNP Leader Lawrence Springborg 38.5% (unchanged) as ‘Better Premier’.

    “The ALP 51% (up 1% since April) has a narrow lead over the L-NP 49% (down 1%) in Western Australia and Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 58% (down 1%) still has a large lead over WA Premier Colin Barnett as ‘Better Premier’.

    In South Australia the L-NP has gained a narrow advantage over the ALP Government: L-NP 50.5% (up 1.5% since April) cf. ALP 49.5% (down 1.5%) and Opposition Leader Steve Marshall 50.5% (up 1.5%) enjoys the same advantage over SA Premier Jay Weatherill 49.5% (down 1.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

    In Tasmania there is something of a ‘split decision’ with the out-of-Government ALP 53% (down 3% since April) cf. Liberals 47% (up 3%) while Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 63.5% (up 2.5%) has increased his lead over Opposition Leader Bryan Green 36.5% (down 2.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.”

  6. Display name

    Call me a cynic and at the risk of repeating myself, Abbott is not to be trusted on anything he says.

    He has more form for lying than any politician I have seen.

  7. Abbott wants to find a way to strangle SSM. If he and like-minded people had had their way over the years, homosexual acts would still be a crime punishable by serious jail time. On this issue, he is trying to emulate what Howard did for the Republic.

  8. Abbott is not being supportive of SSM getting up. He is using a smokescreen about a bipartisan approach to try and argue that Labor is being political whereas the LNP are being whatever.

    Seems like a confused message but it is hard for Abbott & Co when Pell & Co seem to have dropped the ball a bit letting scandal get in the way of the natural order of keeping the plebs under control.

  9. sprocket,

    Those results seem to be demonstrating a high degree of buyer pride.

    The newere Governments in Vic, NSW, Tas and Qld are being supported. While WA and SA seeem to have a shop worn image.

  10. Sprocket

    [Is Alan Jones out of the closet? Well, maybe a crack is appearing]

    That is a mental picture I can do without. 😀

  11. ESJ,

    Where do you go?

    The Libs are planning to force their members to oppose ssm in order for their to be a conscience vote later. If you believe that, I have a slightly used Bridge for sale.

    The Greens are more Stalinist on this than anyone. I think they want to make homosexuality compulsory.

    And of course the snails and puppy dog tail Parties and Independents would end up with a five way split in a three person caucus.

    I abhor gesture politics and the modern feelpinions which is what this push is. But, the change does seem imminent. I’ll just have to learn to put up with it like other things I do not approve of like abortion, Collingwood supporters and narky transvestites.

  12. I am untroubled by transvestites, even those who are ‘narky’. I do not believe that women who become pregnant for whatever reason and don’t want to proceed to term be forced to do so. As for Collingwood and his/its supporters, I don’t know. Are they some weird cult?

  13. GG

    [The Greens are more Stalinist on this than anyone. I think they want to make homosexuality compulsory.]

    Are you saying you object to it being forced down your throat?

  14. The late Rex Mossop lived close to one of Sydney’s nude beaches. He strongly objected to beachgoers walking past his house naked in the nude with nothing on and their persons unclad.

  15. Poor William… No need to get your Poll Bludger knickers in a twist. I just enjoy coming here for a read and a laugh. Debate you say? You mean a swarm bashing from your little supporters that is evident on just about every post that shares or supports a conservative view on your blog… No really, it is part of the reason I enjoy coming here, just to watch the predictable play out.

  16. Whether or not we believe Abbott (or share the same perception of Abbott as Mark Kenny) is irrelevant to the discussion.

    The question is what is the result for each possible path, including those where he is being mean and tricky, and can it be made to work out in some fashion regardless of which path he tries to go down.

    If SSM goes through. Great.
    If Abbott can be proven to be mean and tricky. Great.
    If Abbott commits to “No SSM Under A Government I Lead”. That’s worth something too*.

    * Assuming there is majority support for SSM.

  17. is ssm really a major issue – a thousand die in syria tonight – is it even a major human rights issue? even if it is does it deserve the absolute passion it engenders? i personally dont think marriage is a great institution and this issue never quite adds up – i thought gays were social radicals why this desire to conform

  18. The thing is that whatever Abbott thought he said, everyone in the MSM seems to have heard him say that if Shorten withdraws his private member’s bill, he will permit a cross-party private member’s bill moved by a Coalition back-bencher.

    It will be hard for Abbott to renege on what everyone thought they heard him say.

  19. [854


    I wish I had your optimism, but I simply do not trust a single thing Abbott says or does will be in the interests of equality or doing the right thing.]

    Well, I don’t trust Abbott at all. But he can make political gains here if he chooses to. Let’s imagine he wants to go to any early election in March next year. He could let this reform through the Parliament in November, attend some weddings in December, bask in the glory for a few weeks then bolt to the polls in February.

  20. geoffrey @ 932

    We can do something about giving LGBT people the same right as any other adult in Australia to decide whether they want to be married or not. We cannot stop people murdering each other in Syria.

    It’s not a hard concept to understand that we do what we can; not decline to do something because we can’t do something else that is not related.

  21. Same Sex Marriage will not get up while Abbott is PM. As a serious social conservative, this is something he cannot accept. Agreed, his attitudes are far more ‘flexible’ in important areas including the economy and climate change. In 2008, for example, he was prepared to wave an ETS through, until he discovered the opportunities in opposing it (backed by some very powerful interests.).

    But SSM goes to his core values. In any case, Abbott’s idea of bipartisanship is that the Opposition accede to his demands. He doesn’t do negotiation, unless you expand the definition to include hectoring and threats.

    SSM won’t become a reality until Abbott is booted from the national stage.

  22. [923
    Jolyon Wagg


    The Greens are more Stalinist on this than anyone. I think they want to make homosexuality compulsory.

    Are you saying you object to it being forced down your throat?]

    Very droll, JW.

  23. S777
    Then this whole episode will reinforce the perception that Abbott is the bump in the road.

    Unless Labor somehow manage to help Abbott’s efforts to make it all about them :P.

  24. [No really, it is part of the reason I enjoy coming here, just to watch the predictable play out.]

    If that was all you wanted, you’d just stick to reading. Clearly you want to annoy your enemies as well – which you could do a lot more effectively by exposing flaws in their arguments, if only you were smart enough.

  25. davidwh

    [Beat the cockies like they deserve :)]

    I assume from that comment, the Qld thugs beat the NSW thugs tonight 🙂

    congrats and yawn lol

  26. It looks like Morgan is consistent with ReachTel in QLD. The QLD government has done little other than reinstate Union rights.

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