Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention from Essential Research, which also finds support for tightening of paid parental leave and improved personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The weekly Essential Research result records no change in Labor’s 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady on 41%, 10% and 1% respectively. The poll also finds Joe Hockey’s standing improving since the budget, with his approval rating up four to 34% and disapproval down to 44%, and strong support for the end to paid parental leave “double dipping”, with 56% in favour and 27% opposed. Another question finds 42% in favour of more US military aircraft in Australia, presumably boosted by the inclusion in the question of the words “to counter China’s growing military power”, while 32% were opposed. There are also questions on climate change and voluntary euthanasia (72% in support, 12% opposed).

We also have The Advertiser reporting on a ReachTEL-commissioned poll of 690 respondents in the Liberal-held Adelaide marginal of Hindmarsh, conducted for the ACTU. It produces the somewhat surprising finding that Labor has gone backwards since the election, with the Liberals leading 48.1% to 36.3% on the primary vote after exclusion of the undecided, compared with 46.2% and 38.0% at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

987 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. [1154
    lizzie

    For the third time I will state: I don’t use the cccp stuff and Preview is not working. So Crikey program?]

    fwiw, I think the Crikey platform is malfunctioning. It has stopped remembering my log in. Maybe it’s been hacked by the IPA 🙂

  3. Essential has a question on whether renewable energy or fossil fuel is better for the environment.

    5% say fossil fuel, 9% no diff, and 17% Don’t know. I expect the 5% is willful belligerence, but otherwise Shorten might be onto something with science education.

    It would be good if Essential had a question on evolution or if the world is flat, so we could make a better assessment of the sample.

  4. Following PM&C in Senate Estimates. Wong and co are onto this Abbott trend of dropping Cabinet discussions to the Murdoch rags.

    Really is a debasement of our democracy to give Murdoch his payola by feeding him stories.

    And reciprocal benefits provided by the demented plutocrat by running campaigns eg the SmearStralian running anti-Islamic stories in the lead up to more draconian laws.

  6. The alternative scenario is that Murdoch writes the policy for Cabinet to discuss, which then allows his organs to publish in advance what his puppets are debating.

    Makes more sense now.

  7. [Someone in the other thread expressed surprise at the response re:PPL in this Essential, and I agree]

    It could well be accurate, as people don’t care if they are not affected, but it is more likely to change the vote of people it affects.

    Politically the PPL gyrations remain a very good example of how incoherent the government have been.

  8. Hi WWP,

    I’m enjoying this discussion too 🙂

    [I think that was my argument except I was thinking on a smaller scale and localised. Do you get economies of scale out of massive solar + distribution compared to smaller solar within 10kms? Or wind? If so all we need is for it to actually be done.]

    It’s not so much scale as the consistency of power source that makes utility-scale solar much more viable than local supply. The coast is where most people live, but it’s also where there are most clouds! Dubbo simply gets more sun than Drummoyne.

    Wind is similar but a bit more complicated, as it’s power profile has significant correlations across the southern half of the country. From a system perspective, this makes it higher risk than PV, as there’s a chance that all turbines slow down at roughly the same time. On this score, Qld is climatically separate from the south, so the correlation of wind resources between the two is almost negligable.

    However, there are scale economies in high temperature thermal storage (+750C), which is the tech I think will take off in conjunction with concentrated solar and standard (now highly-efficient super-critical) steam turbine technology. Uni of Newcastle and CSIRO lead in this area.

    [ I think if you could get a product into the market to go offgrid now you’d make a fortune well before the utilities clean up there act. And yes lots of this decision would be irrational.]

    I agree – I’m working with people who are working on it 🙂

    [Well I could take a holiday with the battery money so it would be good if the industry upped its game pretty quickly.]

    I’ll do what I can. *salutes*

    [I think bottom line between us comes down to the ability of the current industry to adapt fast enough so that they stay more economic than emerging technologies that can be deployed at a local level to make that local level self sufficient.]

    I don’t think it is that cut and dried, as the utilities may well become the providers of the tech, especially if it has a large upfront cost and they sell it as a lease, and treat it on their books as an investment.

    [You clearly don’t think the emerging technologies can emerge, I think solar PV with all its faults (imagine if it didn’t have those faults!) shows that people who were saying it wouldn’t emerge 10 years ago were wrong.]

    Oh no, PV is great, it’s just better at scale. Batteries are great, but for them to be really wonderful, we need to deploy them at scale and remodel the operation of network. I know United Power in Vic are all over it, as are Ergon in Qld and Tas Networks, but they need to get a budget for rolling this stuff out through the regulators before they can act!!! Ahrg, it’s a mess – You can blame them for not moving quickly but it’s not all their fault!

  9. Malthouse goes out like the douchebag he is claiming Trigg illegally stole Betts from Carlton.

    What a dog act.

  10. “@BevanShields: The Lodge will be ready for Tony Abbott to move into in about three or four weeks, #estimates hears”

  12. Diogs,

    A slight exaggerfation of what Malthouse actually said. But, you go with your passion.

    I just hope you are as understanding when Dangerfield moves back to Victoria. Everyone knows it’s happening and where he is going. Has he signed. Not yet. But, will he? You betcha!

  13. Sorry meant to post this.

    “@SwannyQLD: Labor is keeping a tab too, under Hockey the deficit has quadrupled from $24.5 billion @ PEFO to $102 billion #qt”

  14. Given that Abbott & Hockey are rarely singing from the same songsheet, I guess its no surprise that they can’t even get their story straight on tampons (well done Minister for Women).

  16. Thanks LU for the information and opinion, I really appreciate it, to cap the conversation off for the moment on a medically prescribed walk just concluded I went past a truck unloading PV’s to reduce the number of houses on this street without it by another one. Perhaps on a future walk I’ll do the count.

  17. [Diogs,

    A slight exaggerfation of what Malthouse actually said. But, you go with your passion.

    I just hope you are as understanding when Dangerfield moves back to Victoria. Everyone knows it’s happening and where he is going. Has he signed. Not yet. But, will he? You betcha!]

    Ah no doubt he will. It is a seriously unfair and rigged competition, you’d be a mug not to be in Victoria as a player.

  18. As for the seat-specific polling in Hindmarsh, not saying if it should go for or against the incumbent, but with the reputation they have, I usually dismiss such seat-specific polling as being highly unreliable.

  21. disgraced priest Gerald Ridsdale’s crimes against children years before he faced charges and may have been involved in decisions to move him between parishes, a royal commission has heard.

    Counsel Assisting the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, Gail Furness, SC, described on Tuesday how the College of Consultors – a group of priests who advised the Ballarat Bishop Ronald Mulkearns – decided to move Ridsdale between parishes.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/cardinal-george-pell-may-have-known-about-priests-crimes-against-children-royal-commission-hears-20150519-gh4twx.html

  22. vic,

    Sorry to disappoint you. But the word “may” is the key in that headline. Pell has previously emphatically denied these accusations. And, the article you refer to was published 6 days ago.

    So once again, we have a non-news story taken out of sequence and context with iffy conclusions drawn.

  23. GG

    I’m pretty resigned to Danger leaving for Geelong next year. It certainly won’t be Carlton. I was out last night at a restaurant and Rory Sloane was at the next table. I’m pretty sure I won’t be seeing him there next year either.

    Carlton need a good established coach to get Sloane et al. The bookies market is Worsfold, McKenna, Barker, Dew, Goodwin, Ratten, Voss, Thompson.

    They’ve got plenty of good choices. Who do you want?

  25. ” Someone in the other thread expressed surprise at the response re:PPL in this Essential, and I agree”

    Nothing surprising here, any change that can be miss characterised as “double dipping” will always resonate with those that can’t get their minds around the real facts.
    The LNP are the masters of disinformation

  30. vic,

    You seem a little flustered. No evidence to back your assertions. Just lots of blather.

    Enjoy your fantasy.

  31. GG

    [Another victim of Abbott’s War on Terror. Local yahoos think they are entitled to abuse muslim women and attack anyone that tries to bring them to account.]

    The local yahoos are “tradesmen”, according to the article.

    The quintessential Tony’s Tradies.

  33. GG

    On Pell as distinct from the institution.

    Innocent until proven guilty applies. What we have seen out of the commission looks damning and not coming to face the music more so.

    I think Pell should come back as with our justice system being fair it is change to clear his name.

    I say this as no fan of Pell of any of the cover ups of the alleged abuse of children.

  35. GG

    [Sorry to disappoint you. But the word “may” is the key in that headline. Pell has previously emphatically denied these accusations.]

    “Emphatic” denial, no less. Is there another kind of denial? Is there ever a tepid or half-hearted denial in these cases of child abuse and cover-up?

    Here we part company GG. Pell has a case to answer. Whether you’re Johnny Depp or Cardinal Pell, no celebrity is above the law.

  36. Victoria

    (1) Gail Furness said Pell was at the time on the Consultors’ Committee that moved priests

    (2) In 1982 they moved Risdale “because it was necessary”

    (3) His successor priest tells Catholic Insurance that Risdale had molested “every???” boy aged 10-16 years in a particular school.

    (4) Points (2) and (3) add up to molestation being the “necessary” reason.

    Sounds very much like Pell knew. As a member of the Catholic flock, I certainly won’t defend Pell. He is a lying grub…… and totally lacking empathy as previous proceedings have demonstrated.

    BTW, in Newcastle NSW earlier this year, the Bishop allowed 2 priests declared by Commissioner Cuneen to be liars about their knowledge of colleague molesters to return to parish duties.

    They lasted about 3 weeks until Catholic community outrage forced the Bishop to sack ’em.

  37. kajuru,

    I see being able to use the English language effectively is now a crime in your eyes.

    I’ll go quietly your honour.

  38. [I think Pell should come back as with our justice system being fair it is change to clear his name.

    I say this as no fan of Pell of any of the cover ups of the alleged abuse of children.]

    If anyone has perverted the course of justice there is no doubt they should be charged with the crime they have committed.

    There are a lot here who openly think behaviour that is not a crime at all is worse than criminal behaviour, I don’t get it myself.

  39. GG

    I should add that when George Pell became Archbishop of Melbourne back in the 1990s (and having absolutely no idea about child abuse etc), i had made a judgment as to the character of Pell. And I am an excellent judge of character

  40. vic,

    You’d make an excellent Queen of Hearts from Alice in Wonderland.

    “Sentence first and then the trial”.

  41. psyclaw

    As i have previously mentioned, I was raised a Catholic and still have one child in the catholic education system. My experience has been very positive and my children have benefitted from their education. But I will not defend Pell. There was always something off about him, but what I have since gleaned, confirms my suspicions.

  42. [I should add that when George Pell became Archbishop of Melbourne back in the 1990s (and having absolutely no idea about child abuse etc), i had made a judgment as to the character of Pell. And I am an excellent judge of character]

    Lets bring in the firing squad now then.

  46. vic,

    Thank goodness we live in a society ruled by law and not capricious decisions made by the ill informed.

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