Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A stable result on voting intention from Essential Research, which also finds support for tightening of paid parental leave and improved personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The weekly Essential Research result records no change in Labor’s 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United are steady on 41%, 10% and 1% respectively. The poll also finds Joe Hockey’s standing improving since the budget, with his approval rating up four to 34% and disapproval down to 44%, and strong support for the end to paid parental leave “double dipping”, with 56% in favour and 27% opposed. Another question finds 42% in favour of more US military aircraft in Australia, presumably boosted by the inclusion in the question of the words “to counter China’s growing military power”, while 32% were opposed. There are also questions on climate change and voluntary euthanasia (72% in support, 12% opposed).

We also have The Advertiser reporting on a ReachTEL-commissioned poll of 690 respondents in the Liberal-held Adelaide marginal of Hindmarsh, conducted for the ACTU. It produces the somewhat surprising finding that Labor has gone backwards since the election, with the Liberals leading 48.1% to 36.3% on the primary vote after exclusion of the undecided, compared with 46.2% and 38.0% at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

987 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [ So you believe in trial by media and being popular with the chattering classes as the only test of guilt? ]

    I think I have already said that I am happy to leave it up to the courts to decide his guilt or innocence.

    Unlike you, who appears to have already decided.

  2. left e @ 97

    Agreed. That’s what this is all about. Gay people should have the right to get married or maybe even not get married of they don’t want to. All they want is a choice.

  3. GG

    I understand where you come from but what has been going on in the Catholic and other churches for so long needs to be brought out of the closet.

    That is what this Commission is all about.

    Pell has history with child abuse as I referred to a week or two back. The person who told me of some cases was also a Catholic lady whom I trusted as friend and she was told by a friend of her son who was a seminarian.

    It is not nice and not pretty but Pell needs to be before the commission and asked some very very pertinent questions.

    He has to come back here from the Vatican and put his case to the Commission and then and only then will we get some idea of what is and was going on.

  4. GG,

    [You might think it old fashioned, but I believe in people being innocent until proven ]

    You’re full of shit. You accused BK – the gentleman of PB – of using the RC as ‘victim porn’. You weren’t too bothered to presume his innocence, you warped zealot.

  5. CTar1

    I didn’t take his use of “nice” as a referral to her personal characteristics . Clare was very polite in saying she was “not fit for purpose”.

  6. [Agreed. That’s what this is all about. Gay people should have the right to get married or maybe even not get married of they don’t want to. All they want is a choice.]

    Toted, Cityboy. Everyone seems to forget gay & lesbians will get the right to say no to marriage, as well as yes.

    They currently have neither.

    This to me is the answer to those who accuse marriage equality advocates of backing a conservative institution. That bollocks – it will give everyone choice.

  7. P!,

    You’re actually the one asserting there will be a charge. Perhaps,the yuppie favourite go to offence of “Not holding fashionable views” might be a goer.

    However, there is little likelihood of your dream being fulfilled.

    I’m open to being wrong. However, I am never wrong, and this time I’m right.

  8. Pell may have done nothing strictly illegal for a secular court to condemn, but he will be judged by a Higher Authority.

  9. [OLD GEORGE PELL has always had a memory problem when it comes to things like ‘bribes’ and hush money as settlement for victims of his paedophile priests.]

    [Maybe all that incense they inhale when waving the midget cauldrons in church affects the memory cells.

    I remember a 60 Minutes interview with the late, great Richard Carleton (more than a decade ago) when the then Bishop of Sydney denied offering $50,000 hush money to a victim.

    ‘I offered them nothing’.

    Carleton then produced a letter from the church’s lawyers saying specifically that ‘we act for Archbishop Pell’ and the $50,000 offer.

    ‘Well, I offered them fifty grand in compensation’.

    Then Carleton raised that disgraceful blackmailing secrecy clause the church demanded of any victim who took the cheque.]

  10. Just listened to grabs from the RC at Ballarat, on the ABC.

    If it was not so serious a matter one could be forgiven for thinking that some of the cover-up clergy pals of colleague abusers were comedians.

    Fr McInerney, Ballarat Diocesan Bishop’s Secretary at the time wrote a character reference for Risdale, AND accompanied Risdale to court.

    McInerney told the RC today that he had no idea what Risdale was charged with, and no idea what was behind Risdale requesting a character reference from him, until he actually heard the charges read out in court. What a joke.

    Apparently it went like this ……

    Risdale: “will you write me a character reference mate?”

    McInerney: “what for mate?”

    Risdale: “I’m not saying mate”

    McInerney: “OK mate”

    Risdale: “and will you come and support me in court mate?”

    McInerny: “why do you have to go to court mate Mate?”

    Risdale: “I’m not saying mate”

    McInerney: “OK mate, I’ll come with you”

    Counsel Assisting Gail Furness put it to McInerny that the substance of his evidence was preposterous. McInerny agreed.

  11. GG

    [ I’m open to being wrong. However, I am never wrong, and this time I’m right. ]

    You are not only wrong, you are sadly deluded.

  12. left e @ 107

    I have friends who are a lesbian couple (and they are just the sweetest) and I asked one of them whether or not marriage was on the cards if it were to become legal and she said they were just taking it one day at a time. Meanwhile a hetro couple I know who rushed into marriage after a couple of months are just split. I think letting those kind of people marry will only enhance the institution of marriage.

  13. [Surprised that Labor isn’t making any ground in Hindmarsh. Hard to see where they could win an extra seat in SA if they can’t get the western suburbs back.

    I guess it’s not impossible that they could sneak Boothby, but I would have thought that was priority #2.]

    As I said earlier today, I am sceptical* of that poll, all things considered.

    And, if Labor are struggling in Hindmarsh, Boothby etc. are definitely off the cards.

    *(Note: I said sceptical, not dismissive or refuse to believe)

  14. [I think I have already said that I am happy to leave it up to the courts to decide his guilt or innocence.]

    What you actually said is:

    [I think a decent case could be made for any of them. I’m happy to leave it up to the courts to determine his guilt or innocence, but if Pell gets away without even being charged, it will be a travesty and a disgrace.]

    Why is it you are happy to do the royal commission’s job and the DPP’s job but then get all shy about being judge. If you were to be consistent to you media based prejudice, like many here, you’d carry through and be judge and executioner as well.

  15. Hmmm. My post disappeared. Trying again …

    [ Why is it you are happy to do the royal commission’s job and the DPP’s job but then get all shy about being judge. If you were to be consistent to you media based prejudice, like many here, you’d carry through and be judge and executioner as well. ]

    I am being consistent. There is already more than enough evidence to charge Pell, but I concede that more may emerge from the RC. However, even though he should be charged, we cannot assume his guilt, since he may have a valid defence.

    I can’t imagine what such a defence would be, but one cannot rule out that he be simply a blithering idiot, or legally insane.

  16. [I’d like to know if it has the power to access testimony from other court cases involving paedophile priests. Maybe to cross-reference what is being said at the Ballarat hearings or around the country.

    Maybe we can finally find out, through the Royal Commission, who ‘Priest X’ is. He’s the mystery cleric whose name was suppressed under extraordinary conditions –despite valiant efforts by the Herald Sun – from a victim impact statement at the last Ridsdale trial.]

  17. [I am being consistent. There is already more than enough evidence to charge Pell]

    So you are the royal commissioner? or perhaps the DPP? In our legal system that conclusion is to be drawn by them isn’t it?

  18. GG

    [I’m open to being wrong. However, I am never wrong, and this time I’m right].

    You are such a smart arse and know it all.

  19. I don’t know why you’re all so passionate about football clubs. I’ve loved sport all my life. But I’ve come to the view that since clubs (mostly pokie palaces that do nothing for their communities) have no loyalty to me, I won’t have any loyalty to them. Now, I just pick and chose which clubs I follow (usually on the basis of whether they’re winning or not and the aesthetic appeal of their style). When I get tired of them, I move on.

  20. [In keeping with Tony Abbott’s promise before the election, Labor wanted the Renewable Energy Target (RET) left untouched. As you know, he backflipped and Labor had to fight to stop him from scrapping the RET altogether.

    Since then, the renewable energy industry has come to a standstill because of the uncertainty created by Tony Abbott’s attacks. This attack has seen investment stalled and jobs lost in this vital industry.

    Rather than see that uncertainty continue, Labor has secured a position that will be a floor for the renewable energy industry to build on. It’s not what we wanted, but it will keep the industry alive.

    Understandably, since we made this deal, many people who are concerned about the future of renewable energy and our planet have contacted me with questions about it.

    That’s why I am hosting a Facebook Q&A tonight at 7pm on my Facebook page where I’ll be taking questions directly from you. You can get to my Facebook page here: https://www.facebook.com/MarkButlerMP

    I want to make sure everyone has the opportunity to find out exactly what we’re planning and our vision for renewable energy in Australia — like the fact that if Labor is elected in 2016, we’ll increase the 2020 target.

    At 7pm tonight, go to my Facebook page by clicking here and ask me your question about the future of renewable energy in Australia.]

    Labor will always stand up for renewables and will always stand for effective action on climate change. Join me and find out how.

    Mark Butler
    Shadow Minister for the Environment, Water and Climate Change

  21. WWP,

    The task should be jobbed out to P1. His qualifications are being an opinionated blogger with a God complex.

    His wisenosity and open mindedness is legendary.

  22. [Note: I said sceptical, not dismissive or refuse to believe]

    Actually I AM dismissive of that poll until further evidence is produced. With what has been going on in SA over the subs etc. it seems inexplicable to me why Labor’s pv should be that low and the Liberal pv that high, even allowing for a modest bounce from the budget.

    I do recall that in 2013 it was clear after the election that Reachtel’s performance in some of its single seat polling was often wide of the mark.

    That said, as I have stated in previous posts I not believe that Labor will win the next election, but will most probably win easily in 2018 or 2019.

  23. Damn! Why are my posts disappearing??? Posting again ….

    [ So you are the royal commissioner? or perhaps the DPP? In our legal system that conclusion is to be drawn by them isn’t it? ]

    You don’t need to be either to point out the bleeding obvious.

  24. [ The task should be jobbed out to P1. His qualifications are being an opinionated blogger with a God complex.

    His wisenosity and open mindedness is legendary. ]

    Thanks, but I’m happy to leave it to the courts.

    What I am not happy about is that it has taken a Royal Commission to uncover the degree of criminality that so many people in the church have known about for decades.

  25. P1,

    And that is where you are totally incorrect.

    This RC has not revealed anything in the last week that has not been in the public arena for 20 plus years.

    Now, you can chastise yourself for being nothing but a band wagon follower. However, that is the reality.

  26. [You don’t need to be either to point out the bleeding obvious.]

    So you have both drawn a conclusion and not drawn a conclusion all at the same time. Brilliant.

    I don’t think Pell is a nice guy but I’m prepared to wait for the analysis of all the evidence, the recommendations of the royal commission and the analysis by the appropriate authorities.

    It is not at all obvious to me an offense has been committed, being cold hearted, offensive and more interested in the dollar than victims are all evil things but whether or not Pell crossed a line into criminality isn’t at all obvious to an open considering mind.

  27. [ This RC has not revealed anything in the last week that has not been in the public arena for 20 plus years. ]

    Good, so you agree with me there was already enough evidence to charge Pell with (at least) obstruction of justice and criminal conspiracy even before the RC.

    See? That wasn’t so hard, was it?

  28. [ It is not at all obvious to me an offense has been committed, being cold hearted, offensive and more interested in the dollar than victims are all evil things but whether or not Pell crossed a line into criminality isn’t at all obvious to an open considering mind. ]

    Now who is pre-judging the outcome of the courts?

  29. [Now who is pre-judging the outcome of the courts?]

    Not me I’m happy to wait for the experts whichever way they go.

  30. SSM is just the sort of smoke screen Abbott needs, anything to take the eye off the blundering mess that is the reality of the government.

    Not that I don’t think SSM is a fair cause, there are just so many other more important issues at this point.

  31. It’s kinda funny that after the Catholic Church spent decades trying to keep child abuse allegations out of the courts we are now being urged or wait and let the law take its course.

  32. [Being a bloviating bigot is not actually a crime. So BK is safe from prosecution.]

    You’re crossing a line there GG.

    Knowing BK personally, you couldn’t be more wrong.

    He is a much-loved and admired member of whatever community he chooses to be a part of. You are just a potty-mouthed troll.

    BK (and I) are just against senior authority shielding behind a church infrastructure where they have all the power, spiritual and financial.

    Too many poor victims have put their trust in the Catholic Church (I did for a few years, in my early teens) and been disappointed.

    In my case it was a mild disappointment that made me turn away from the Church and its liturgy ever since. For others it wasn’t so benign.

    The little boys and girls (now mostly grown men and women) who were statutorily raped, sodomized and molested, and who can’t forget, want some action, after so many years of inaction and blind-siding by the clergy, right up to the top.

    It’s their turn, and Pell’s turn to feel what it’s like to have the thumbscrews applied to his own behaviour, rather than the many documented cases of his flock having their own behaviour and shame turned back on them by a powerful person.

    Jesus said, “Suffer the little children to come to me,” but he didn’t mean so that they could be sexually molested. He didn’t have a grand church, and a wealthy hierarchy. He had no power except the power of an idea: that we should love each other, not assault each other and wreck each others’ lives.

    All these witnesses can’t all be lying about Pell. He needs to front the Royal Commission as many times as it needs him to appear, to answer for his deeds and for the crimes of those he was supposed to be managing.

    Vilifying good, decent people like BK won’t help you GG. You have a nice turn of phrase as a Catholic troll. You get conversations going and generate comments. But you’re wrong, mate. Dead wrong.

    This is serious and it’s aboput time that the perpetrators and their enablers, the ones who covered for them and transferred them to other cities so they could pollute them as well, answered for what they did, and did not do.

    No amount of your mouthing off will save them now.

  33. Hmmmm…

    In the space of 24 hours, tampons were out, then in, then out again.

    The Coalition Clownathon continues unchecked.

  34. P1,

    The allegations have previously been tested in court and shown to be not corroborated. In the absence of any magic bullet revelation, then that is the likely outcome from the RC.

    That actually means Pell had no case to answer.

    See, very easy for even you to understand.

    I’ll also say that you need to add Paul Bongiorno to the list of alleged criminals in this matter.

    “Pell says he had no idea what Ridsdale was up to and this is plausible. Paedophiles are devious and delight in their ability to fool those around them.

    Pell has a frank, abrupt style once common in Australian men of action. Today it is seen as lacking in empathy

    Last week, journalist and former priest Paul Bongiorno divulged on ABC’s Radio National that he also lived with Ridsdale in a presbytery: “I had no idea what he was up to. And when people look at me quizzically, I say … there are married men and women now who sleep with their husbands and wives who don’t know their husband or wife is having an affair. Let me tell you, Ridsdale never came into the presbytery in Warrnambool and never said: ‘Guess how many boys I raped today?’ They hide it. It was certainly hidden from me, and when it came out, after I’d left the priesthood, I was shocked and I was ashamed.”

    No one doubts Bongiorno. So why doubt Pell, who acted to help victims as soon as he became Archbishop of Melbourne?”

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/miranda-devine-its-easy-to-blame-cardinal-george-pell-but-that-misses-target/story-fni0cwl5-1227366730085

  35. [Pell has a frank, abrupt style once common in Australian men of action. Today it is seen as lacking in empathy]

    Ha ha ha. Action man Pell. You couldn’t make this stuff up.

  36. BB,

    Have you renounced your support for Roman Polanski. Or, can we assume that you still regard his paedophile offences of no consequence?

    This is your problem in defending ratbags like BK on this issue.

    Until you clarify your situation, you really can’t have any credibility on this matter.

  37. GG

    [ “Pell says he had no idea what Ridsdale was up to and this is plausible. Paedophiles are devious and delight in their ability to fool those around them. ]

    So, you believe Pell’s defence is that he was a blithering idiot?

    Maybe – but I think this defence should be tested in court.

    Don’t you?

  38. I estimate that with ABC News and 7.30, we’ll have had about 15 minutes of terror, terror, terror. But only a certain, government approved kind of terror.

  39. mikeh:

    It kind of leaves Abbott scrambling to decide whether to allow a conscience vote. Turnbull’s comments about Australia now lagging behind (or whatever it was he said) will end up looking hollow if he’s forced to either abstain or oppose Labor’s bill.

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