ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The first ReachTEL federal poll in quite some time confirms that Tony Abbott’s personal standing isn’t quite as bad as it was at the time of the leadership spill motion, but otherwise offers no joy to the Coalition.

The Seven Network has this evening brought us a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention which has Labor’s lead at 54-46. The last ReachTEL federal poll was way back on February 5, immediately before the Liberal Party leadership spill vote, at which time the Labor lead was 55-45. All we have on the primary vote, courtesy of The Guardian, is that “the Liberal party’s primary vote is up nearly a point to 35.4%, while Labor is down by the same margin to 40.5%”. The poll finds Tony Abbott’s personal standing to have improved since early February, although that’s not saying much. He ranks third as preferred Liberal leader at 24.2% behind Malcolm Turnbull (42.6%) and Julie Bishop (28.7%).

UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes: Coalition 39.6% (up 1.2%), Labor 40.5 (down 0.9%), Greens 11.5% (up 0.3%), Palmer United 2.2% (down 0.5%). The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2417.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,535 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 31
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  1. [“And since when Goatchaser, has anything you posted been funny?”]

    We don’t chase goats here in Queensland, there are plenty of bush pigs though 🙂

  2. [41
    jenauthor

    Interesting that Coalition wailed long and loud about Labor reducing funding for defence and that they’d restore it. Now they’re going to reducing funding/staff/getting rid of Defence Materiel. Sub purchase/build won’t happen at all is my guess.]

    Well spotted, jen. The penny has dropped for them. Revenue is falling, not rising. Expenditure cannot be cut at will.

  5. victoria:

    Haven’t read Kenny’s column, but has the penny just dropped for these people on super? The coalition reversed Labor’s reforms when it came to govt at least 12 months ago.

  7. TrueBlueAussie@101

    “And since when Goatchaser, has anything you posted been funny?”


    We don’t chase goats here in Queensland, there are plenty of bush pigs though

    Your sexual preferences are of no interest to the rest of us.

  9. [ Sub purchase/build won’t happen at all is my guess. ]

    More likely they will hand it over to a “selected” team in the Navy that can be relied on to pick the Japanese offer.

  12. Why didn’t Labor reform the super concessions in their first term when they were enjoying peak-RUDD? The current offer by Labor is a wedge because Abbott has many times promised no change to super.

  13. Yes David dont you love it?

    6 Years in power. Nothing Done.

    5 Minutes in Opposition. Quick! Lets do something about Super!

  16. [ The current offer by Labor is a wedge because Abbott has many times promised no change to super. ]

    So what? Its not like the Libs have any reputation for keeping promises or anything like that. 🙂

  18. Don,
    I get lost in the arguments about who was right but there was some cross purpose talking going on there between you and zoidlord. Mobile handset usage is up but it is still minor and fixed line dominates. That is the story.

    It is interesting that because people use mobile every day they think it is huge. Joe Hockey said in 2013 that wireless is the future and cable was old hat, famously saying you can’t trail a fibre optic cable behind your car. People still believe that NBN Fibre is not needed as we will all have wireless . Repeating the facts about Internet usage helps kill that zombie idea.

  19. imacca,

    tell you what between Labor and the Libs, I expect the Libs to post a budget surplus first and do whats required to meet that target.

    When was Labors last budget surplus again? Oh thats right… 1989

  20. [Why didn’t Labor reform the super concessions in their first term when they were enjoying peak-RUDD?]

    Probably because other economic priorities took hold. Super was reformed in its second term, but this is not justification for an incoming Liberal govt to wind those back in its first term having screamed ‘budget emergency!’ to all an sundry for years.

  21. Hot news on ABC website.

    Two Aussies arrested in China for drug trafficking.

    One already tried and given death sentence.

    Other about to go to trial, probably with same result.

    Surely we don’t have to go through this farce again!

  22. [ I expect the Libs to post a budget surplus first and do whats required to meet that target. ]

    Yes GoatChaser, that’s because you are a delusional fantasist and an idiot.

  24. @TBA/119

    Playing cat and mouse on budgets and surpluses is just pathetic excuse to divert attention away from the actual problems of the budget bottom line.

  26. [ excuse to divert attention away from the actual problems of the budget bottom line. ]

    Its the Tory way. Why focus on issues in the present or future that actually matter but are scary cause you have no idea what to do, when you can look back on the past and blame someone, anyone, everyone else, for stuff thats history?

    ToBeAdvised will have had its lines handed to it. 🙂 Will be interesting to hear it bleating when the Budget comes down.

  27. davidwh

    Actually Tony’s promise on super was the unimpressive “no negative unexpected changes”. So he’s on solid ground as we expect him to make negative changes to everything these days.

  28. Budget surplus, ie we taxed you far more than we delivered back to you in services. Great bragging point!

    Get yer hand off it. It used to be interest rates till they ended up far, far lower under Rudd than under Howard. Then that went off the radar. What a joke.

    ABbott’s already indicated that surpluses are heading the same way – since external factors like the end of the mining boom make it too hard.

    Apparently a deficit of 50-60% of GDP aint bad now! Forget everythign I said earlier! Have an onion kids!

    LOL. Such is the BS of LNP economic discourse. He comes in, makes the deficit WORSE, then declares victory. What a chump.

    These people are a waste of time, this is just an amateur hour routine. Frankly, there are far more important questions, like whether debt is improving productivity or not.

  29. deewhytony

    [One already tried and given death sentence.]

    …which was reduced to life imprisonment for good behaviour.

    Not sure how you could have listened to the broadcast and missed that bit.

  32. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/world/2015/04/01/Australian-convicted-for-marrying-off-12-year-old-daughter-.html

    [An Australian man was convicted Wednesday of procuring his 12-year-old daughter for sex by letting her marry a man more than twice her age in an Islamic ceremony.

    The father, who cannot be named to protect the girl’s identity, was found guilty of procuring a child under the age of 14 for unlawful sexual activity and encouraging the pair to have intercourse despite denying the charges.

    Sydney’s Downing Centre District Court heard that he wanted to save the girl from what he considered the sin of having sex outside marriage so when she reached puberty he decided she should wed.

    When a 26-year-old Lebanese man, in Australia on a student visa, showed interest in her the father consented to a marriage, which was carried out by a local sheikh last year at his home around 250 kilometers (150 miles) north of Sydney.

    On the night of the wedding — which was not recognized under Australian law — the married pair went to a hotel with the father’s permission, Judge Deborah Sweeney said as she handed down her judgment.

    They had sex there and twice more at the father’s home the following weekend.

    “He made up a room and bed… for them knowing they would have sexual intercourse,” Sweeney said, adding that the girl fell pregnant but miscarried.

    During the trial, the court heard the girl was told on the night of her wedding not to use contraceptive pills or condoms as it was against the religious teachings they followed.

    The father was released on bail and will be sentenced next month.

    His daughter is in the care of authorities while the “husband” was jailed for seven-and-a-half years last month for sexual abuse of a child. The sheikh who carried out the marriage ceremony has not been charged.]

  33. [zoomster

    Posted Wednesday, April 1, 2015 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    deewhytony

    One already tried and given death sentence.

    …which was reduced to life imprisonment for good behaviour.

    Not sure how you could have listened to the broadcast and missed that bit.
    ]

    Not yet it hasn’t, but it probably will be.

    [The ABC understands Sherrif was sentenced to death for attempting to traffic the drug, which is used to make ice, but this will be commuted to life in prison if his behaviour in prison is good for two years. ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-01/australian-man-sentenced-to-death-in-china-for-drug-smuggling/6365106

  34. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-31/iran-nuclear-negotiators-miss-deadline-push-on-into-wednesday

    [Iran and world powers pressed ahead with talks to draft the outline of an agreement to end the 12-year standoff over the country’s nuclear program, with diplomats saying more work needs to be done before any announcement.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said late Tuesday that negotiators had reached consensus on major points and expect to start drafting a statement later today. U.K. Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the sides had a “broad framework of understanding” with some key issues still left to resolve “during the course of the day.”

    The accord reached at the talks in Lausanne, Switzerland, will be “presented to the world” by Zarif and the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Lavrov told reporters after a non-binding March 31 deadline on the talks had passed. Though he didn’t say when, Swiss authorities have been preparing a nearby venue.

    “This doesn’t mean the end of our work” because the final three-month phase of technical talks will be tough, Lavrov said. “The devil is in the details.”

    The goal is an accord that would ease Iran’s international isolation and reduce the potential for tensions over its nuclear ambitions to escalate into war. Oil traded near the lowest in a week, partly on speculation that a deal would mean that Iranian crude could enter world markets.]

    Rapprochement between the US and Iran is on the cards. This may completely change the political and military array right across the Middle East and North Africa.

  37. Interesting the australian today reports two more labor mps “in trouble” and Curtis Pitt urging mps to “come clean”.

    What is the record for the shortest tenure of a state government post 1945?

    If there are other Gordon’s in the ranks this could be an epic meltdown.

  38. David,

    [Why didn’t Labor reform the super concessions in their first term when they were enjoying peak-RUDD? The current offer by Labor is a wedge because Abbott has many times promised no change to super.]

    I’m not sure Labor can take credit for that wedge since the Government is now considering it a year and a bit after they repealed it, as one of their firsts acts as Government, no less. It’s been Labor policy for yonks and was introduced by the previous Government, as confessions mentioned. The Government only have themselves to blame

  40. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Something else to add to Hockey’s list of “achievements”?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockeys-google-tax-could-derail-international-tax-treaties-budget-office-20150401-1mczq7.html
    Nice work from this North Shore doctor!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/antiageing-doctor-julie-epstein-found-guilty-of-misconduct-20150401-1mcrcv.html
    The ATO heads for the Obied households. Good stuff.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/obeid-wives-hit-with-8-million-tax-bill-20150401-1mczdc.html
    It’s time for Abbott to step up and tackle domestic violence. This is what a “death cult” is.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/time-for-tony-abbott-to-step-up-and-tackle-domestic-violence-in-australia-20150401-1mcmfq.html
    Labor proposes bipartisan action to rein in (Howard’s) superannuation concessions to the very wealthy. Let’s see what happens now.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-offers-to-end-super-concessions-for-the-rich-20150401-1md29e.html
    DNA editing raises many ethical questions.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2015/04/01/crispr-gene-editing/
    Tracking Abbott’s wreckage – March update.
    http://theaimn.com/tracking-abbotts-wreckage-march-update/
    More evidence of the effectiveness of the Kings Cross lockouts.
    http://www.2ue.com.au/news/kings-cross-lockout-laws-are-working-20150401-1mce4o.html
    The Harper Review has sticks and carrots when it comes to the behaviour of big retailers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/harper-review-coles-woolies-fight-recommended-change-to-competition-laws-20150401-1mcymy.html
    More trouble for Hockey’s budget as anxious consumers reduce spending – Mark Kenny. Now where would the anxiety have come from I wonder?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockeys-budget-facing-new-troubles-as-anxious-consumers-stop-spending-20150401-1md0fi.html

  41. Section 2 . . .

    Surely there must be very serious repercussions over this Leightons scandal! Sam Dastyarri’s on the job as well as ASIC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/another-leighton-probe-into-alleged-failure-to-disclose-20150401-1mcmhb.html
    The US announces carbon emission reduction targets. We’re still working on ours.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/01/us-announces-carbon-emission-reduction-targets-were-still-working-ours
    The TPP trade deal spells out a plan for a big grab from corporations.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/01/us-announces-carbon-emission-reduction-targets-were-still-working-ours
    “View from the Street” reviews the April Fools’ Day efforts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-its-april-jerks-day-20150401-1mcw97.html
    The SMH editorial examines how money has influenced the outcomes of the ASADA sports doping saga.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-offwhitest-day-for-australian-sport-20150401-1mcs8p.html
    And it may not be over yet!
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/asada-chief-reveals-concern-that-essendon-records-may-have-been-destroyed-20150401-1mcthw.html
    This type of roadside marker signifying the places of fatalities and serious accidents has been in SA for decades.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/white-crosses-to-line-the-hume-freeway-marking-the-pain-and-passion-of-top-traffic-cop-20150401-1mcmti.html
    Ben Eltham’s not impressed with Hockey’s Taxation paper.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/01/time-abbott-government-rethink-meaning-reform
    Holy redemption?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/expriest-david-rapson-suffered-breakdown-in-prison-after-being-found-guilty-of-raping-students-20150401-1mcrok.html
    California introduces unprecedented water restrictions in its major drought.
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/01/california-governor-orders-mandatory-water-restrictions-drought

  42. Section 3 . . .

    Michael Leunig has an idea about safety.

    David Pope hints at a touch of desperation from Abbott.

    Mark Knight seems unconvinced with the Collingwood players’ reason for the presence of Clenbutirol in their samples.

    David Rowe and the Easter Bunny.

    Bill Leak drops in to see Lazarus and Lambie after Clive’s threat.

  43. Morning all. A sad day for me personally at work yesterday when the consequences of the economic policy of our sociopathic federal government hit home. For the first time in the almost ten years I have worked for them my employer issued redundancies in Adelaide, including some in the section I work in. I understand why they did it – there has been a big drop in work locally in the past year. It is much harder to switch people around when one sector is down since the end of the mining boom. Previously we have shared work between States to balance peaks and troughs too, but even that is difficult now because WA, Victoria and Queensland are also down on work. WA has been most affected by the end of the mining boom, and both Qld and Vic are both struggling because billions in project funding have been held up by the failure to reach agreement between the Abbott government and new State. Labor governments. Here is SA things have been compounded by long delays in releasing projects for tender. I have been traveling a lot recently to bring back work for people to do in Adelaide but it has not been enough. So people lose their jobs.

    I know that there have now been redundancies in almost every engineering consultancy in Adelaide in the past year.

  44. Back on friendly ground..

    @stephanieando: Prime Minister Tony Abbott is on air with Alan Jones on Radio 2GB shortly #auspol

  46. BK

    Yes it is hard to forget the impact on the people, and it is demoralising for everyone, not only those who lose their jobs. You know they have done nothing wrong, tried hard – there just isn’t enough work for them to do. I have experienced this before too, though not for a long time in my area – the last time I was in a place where this was needed was in the early 90s, and we have done pretty well since. Also this time stings because it is entirely avoidable – deficit fetishes and Hockey’s last budget farce are the direct cause. I know the Weatheral government have done what they can but they too are cutting spending because, even though Abbott has funded two roads, he has unfunded two rail projects and cut school and hospital grants to the State by hundreds of millions.

  47. twiggy ang Big Gina must have that sick feeling in their stomach’s, watching their paper fortunes evaporate before their eyes

    [Don’t catch a falling knife.

    That’s the phrase traders use when a a commodity, currency, stock or other asset is falling sharply. It’s good advice. But, unfortunately it also means any buyers inclined to support the price step away from the market, which then falls faster and harder than before.

    This is what’s happening in the iron ore market at the moment.]

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-bears-smell-blood-iron-ore-is-really-tanking-now-2015-4

  48. Doesn’t appear that Abbott’s Alan Jones grovel will bear any fruit. Getting set to wrap himself in the Anzac flag, conversation about tax, and his patented head up backside observations.

    [@stephanieando: Abbott ending the i/v with an understatement on his party’s education reforms: We’ve had difficulties in the parliament #auspol]

  49. The Lying Friar Schlick got a run with The Parrott

    [@nathan28423118: Prime Minister Abbott on @2GB873 With Alan Jones calls Bill Shorten “the man who controls the GST”]

  50. I thought I would “console” myself on the job loss of my friends by looking up the statistics to see how many others are in the same boat since Tony Abbott gained power. In September 2013 there were 706,000 unemployed, at a rate of 5.7%. By March 2015 there were 781,000 unemployed, a rate of 6.3%. Unemployment under Tony Abbott has increased by 75,000. See
    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/2FB142D7BF358849CA257C1B000D86BA?opendocument

    And
    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6202.0Main+Features1Feb%202015?OpenDocument

    Thanks Tony, Mr “Infrastructure Prime Minister”. That title is not very funny if your job is planning, designing or building infrastructure.

    BTW engineering planning(2%) and design (3 to 5%) are small proportions of project costs. With the number of engineering job losses now, there are going to be an awful lot of unemployed tradesmen in six to twelve months time. It is almost too late to turn it around before the next election, because the larger projects take twelve to eighteen months or more to plan, tender and start hiring.

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