Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll breaks down a rough quarter of polling for the government, and finds Tony Abbott to be travelling particularly badly in South Australia.

The Australian plugs what will presumably be an Easter polling break with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, featuring voting intention and leadership rating results since the start of the year broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan. The state figures differ from the current BludgerTrack readings in being weaker for Labor in Queensland, but stronger in New South Wales and Western Australia. Later this week I’ll incorporate these numbers into BludgerTrack and publish one of my complete quarterly updates. The other figures that stand out for me are the huge drops in Tony Abbott’s approval ratings in Western Australia (down 17% to 25%) and South Australia (down 11% to 19%), with his disapproval rating in South Australia at a remarkable 74%.

UPDATE 7/4 (Roy Morgan): The latest result from Roy Morgan, combining the last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3063, is a relatively strong result for the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 40.5% with Labor down 4% to 36% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this pans out to a big drop in Labor’s lead from 56-44 to 53-47, but the shift on previous election preferences is a good deal more modest, from 54-46 to 53-47.

UPDATE 8/4 (Essential Research): Essential’s fortnightly rolling average is steady at 53-47 to Labor, although Labor are down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens steady on 10% and Palmer United up one to 2%. Further questions find 69% opposed to raising the pension age to 70, with only 21% in support; 35% support for lowering the threshold for payment of GST on online purchases, with 45% opposed; and majorities in favour of banning alcohol advertising and raising the drinking age, but not discouraging consumption by increasing tax.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

962 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. Psyclaw

    It is the PATTERNS that will be detected by spybots. That is why it is easy for emails etc because the spybots will do the searching. It is the unusual that will be noted.

    Take phone tracking. The spybots know you leave home at 7:20-40 each morning and return home at 6:40. What will be noticed is when you step outside the norms.

    Any way I am tired, Darren is an offensive oaf and it really makes very little difference what our laws say, cos they are doing it anyway.

  2. [945

    Clubs and societies, kids school letters can all be tracked.]


    dtt, congrats, you have outdone yourself. This is priceless. Those kids. Their clubs!!! Toddler-data could be gobbled up by the meta-wolf. How will we ever rest again? The post-mark goblins are coming.

  3. [954
    Tom the first and best]

    What I enjoy most about dtt, T, is her capacity for exaggeration. No claim is too outrageous, no spook too scary, no number too large. She has made the utterly improbable an everyday complaint.

    Some might wish her “Hats Off!!”, but I’m with her when I cry “CAPSLOCK!!!”

  4. [957
    Darren Laver

    DTT is loony — from start to finish. She always descends into high farce at this time of night.]

    I suspect she’s a ghost-writer for Mad as Hell.

  5. [959

    I Know You Received Five Letters From Your Bank Last Summer]

    One was a love letter. Another was an offer on funeral insurance. One suggested an increase in my credit limit. The next was to ask me to register for phone-banking (which I absolutely hate). The last was a note explaining my local branch would be closing soon.

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