The Australian plugs what will presumably be an Easter polling break with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, featuring voting intention and leadership rating results since the start of the year broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan. The state figures differ from the current BludgerTrack readings in being weaker for Labor in Queensland, but stronger in New South Wales and Western Australia. Later this week I’ll incorporate these numbers into BludgerTrack and publish one of my complete quarterly updates. The other figures that stand out for me are the huge drops in Tony Abbott’s approval ratings in Western Australia (down 17% to 25%) and South Australia (down 11% to 19%), with his disapproval rating in South Australia at a remarkable 74%.
UPDATE 7/4 (Roy Morgan): The latest result from Roy Morgan, combining the last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3063, is a relatively strong result for the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 40.5% with Labor down 4% to 36% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this pans out to a big drop in Labor’s lead from 56-44 to 53-47, but the shift on previous election preferences is a good deal more modest, from 54-46 to 53-47.
UPDATE 8/4 (Essential Research): Essential’s fortnightly rolling average is steady at 53-47 to Labor, although Labor are down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens steady on 10% and Palmer United up one to 2%. Further questions find 69% opposed to raising the pension age to 70, with only 21% in support; 35% support for lowering the threshold for payment of GST on online purchases, with 45% opposed; and majorities in favour of banning alcohol advertising and raising the drinking age, but not discouraging consumption by increasing tax.