The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly result of state voting intention in Western Australia, and it gives the Barnett government its worst result since it came to power in September 2008. After three successive polls at 50-50, this one credits Labor with a lead of 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Liberals and Nationals (down two), 35% for Labor (up two) and 14% for the Greens (down one).
The Opposition Leader, Mark McGowan, would appear to rate second only to Mike Baird as the nation’s most popular leader, with an approval rating up five to a new peak of of 53% and disapproval up one to 28% (Baird’s ratings in the Newspoll before last week’s election were 57% and 29%). Colin Barnett continues to record mediocre ratings of 38% approval (up one) and 53% disapproval (up four), and McGowan’s 40-39 lead as preferred premier has opened to 44-38.
The poll encompasses a sample of 873 respondents who were surveyed during Newspoll’s regular polling throughout February and March. Hat tip: James J.
Here is a table of previous Newspoll. The last three WA Newspolls were 50-50, the one in early 2014 49-51 to the Coalition.
http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/image_uploads/141204%20WA%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings%20Oct%20-%20Dec.pdf
Note that the recent Morgan SMS state polls this year and the end of last year showed a slight move to the ALP over time.
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6125-sms-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-march-2015-201503180359 March 2015
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5948-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-november-2014-201411260447 November 2014
I would be expecting Daniel Andrews to be up there with the popular leaders, when the Victorian results are released. The recent Morgan SMS polls had his government as the most popular in the country.
It should certainly be pointed out that we don’t have post-election poll ratings for two newly elected premiers at the moment. Even so, both Andrews and Palaszczuk are starting from a long way back in Newspoll — 38% and 43% in the former case, 38% and 40% in the latter.
McGowan’s a nice guy. Met him at the special Senate election last year – I live in his electorate, and was working the booths for the Greens. He was very nice, very polite and said he hoped we’d do well (we did – won a full quota in our own right, for the first time in WA history!).
I’m certainly going to have no problem putting Mark McGowan and #2 on my LA ticket. And if he’s still the ALP(WA) Leader, I’ll manually number the LC ticket to put Labor just behind the Greens.
From the very little I do know about politics – that has to be a worry for Liberals everywhere.
3
Andrews now faces Matthew Guy, rather than Napthine, so that is likely to effect the polling. Facing the Borg rather than Newman is likely to also effect Palaszczuk`s vote.
Jake,
Yes and no. State Labor is pretty competitive most elections. If I were the Federal Fibs, then I’d have more concern at the Newspoll breakdowns – for Labor to lead them in WA for a Federal election…it hasn’t happened in 20 years.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/newspoll-seven-years-on-alp-leads-colin-barnett-in-wa/story-e6frgczx-1227293566052
[Newspoll: Seven years on, ALP leads Colin Barnett in WA
THE AUSTRALIAN APRIL 07, 2015 12:00AM
Andrew Burrell WA Chief Reporter Perth
The Labor Party in Western Australia has recorded a historic first Newspoll lead over the Barnett government since 2008, increasing the likelihood that Mark McGowan will lead the party to the next state election.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has a 52 per cent to 48 per cent lead over the Liberal-Nationals alliance on a two-party-preferred basis.
WA is the next state due to hold an election, in March 2017, when Premier Colin Barnett will be seeking a third term after 8½ years in the job.
The Newspoll survey is the first time Labor has led in WA since the September 2008 election, when it suffered a shock defeat under then premier Alan Carpenter at the hands of Mr Barnett’s Liberals. It represents a huge turnaround for Labor since the 2013 election when the ALP under Mr McGowan recorded only 42.7 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote compared to the Liberal-Nationals on 57.3 per cent.]
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/04/06/1227293/514307-150407wa.pdf
According to the West this morning, ReachTel has come up with similar results as applied to Federal voting intentions in WA.
One gets the impression of a tired Liberal government locally rather than a resurgent Labor party. However, the West has outlined today the 4 or 5 metro seats, at the Federal rather than State level, under threat for the Liberals if voting intentions are carried through at the next election.
The unwinding of the mining boom is going to hit the governing party of WA hard (whoever it is).
It is probably lucky for Labor that they get to wait to 2017. By then, most of the aftermath of the mining investment collapse should be over. They will be in government during the recovery.
I’m not sure the “tired” Liberal narrative works when the opposition leader’s approval ratings are so high. He must be doing something right. Unless Barnett’s as disliked in WA as Abbott is nationally, which I wasn’t under the impression is the case.
Teh
You must move in different circles to me. Barnett is seen as a tired and grumpy politician who would rather be doing something else. He may not be as on the nose as Abbott (that would be hard) but not far off.
William, since this poll encompasses a period of one to two months is this poll worth the paper it’s written on?
[You must move in different circles to me. Barnett is seen as a tired and grumpy politician who would rather be doing something else. He may not be as on the nose as Abbott (that would be hard) but not far off.]
Barnett has it all going perfectly (for a mediocre missing opposition leader):
* He has a shrinking weak economy with the bottom still a year or so off.
* He also has massively increased cost / taxes, contrary to promises;
* Provided poorer / fewer services;
* blown out state debt;
* failed to honor election commitments, the ‘popularity’ of Elizabeth’s little pond and the new footy stadium / redevelopment of Crown at State expense for his mate James yet to be fully tested.
About the worst economic results that could be imagined from a premier of either side.
There is also the realisation he went to the last election knowing just how bad things were and lied to everyone.
Final cherry on the cake is that everyone knows he is by far and away the only competent person in his cabinet.
Tricot @9:
[According to the West this morning, ReachTel has come up with similar results as applied to Federal voting intentions in WA.]
Which astounded me when I read of it.
[One gets the impression of a tired Liberal government locally rather than a resurgent Labor party.]
Labor is – according to the polls – on track to achieve historic wins at both Federal and State levels in WA, off the backs of large swings.
I’m not sure how you can say they’re not “resurgent”.
[However, the West has outlined today the 4 or 5 metro seats, at the Federal rather than State level, under threat for the Liberals if voting intentions are carried through at the next election.]
Ironically, Labor may – per the State pendulum – win 52% of the TPP at the State level next election and be unable to form Government, due to a whole pack of second-term Liberal MLAs with significant personal votes putting their seats just out of reach.
rossmcg@ 12:
[You must move in different circles to me. Barnett is seen as a tired and grumpy politician who would rather be doing something else. He may not be as on the nose as Abbott (that would be hard) but not far off.]
It set in after last election. To a number of people I know, spending $400m of public money on riverfront development in the CBD – when the Treasury’s shape is pretty bad and getting worse – was a “WTF?!?” moment, and they’ve paid much closer attention to him since…and not liked what they’ve seen.
Particularly with Perth having upwards of 13,000 homeless people and Homeswest in dire straits for funding.
have you got a reliable poll from Queensland and VIC. please.
The “Abbott Factor ” at work ? PvO on his show discussed how Abbott rates pretty low everywhere but WA stood out for how bad Abbott rated there.
Matt@ 15
I don’t know if you are WA based, but I am not aware of any wondrous things that Labor is doing to woo the voters.
After all, the election is still some way off – after the Federal one as has been noted – so that Labor is not exactly in election mode should be no surprise.
I stand by my perception that the government is tired and stale.
Labor, and its leader, along with any other party/opposition leader would be pleased just to go along for the ride.
I am of the view that governments tend to lose office rather than oppositions win them.
To be honest, if it had not been for Federal issues overshadowing the campaign, Labor would have won the LAST state election here in WA.
They ran the better campaign and they had the advantage of Barnett being a proven liar (having broken his promise to build the Ellenbrook rail line made at the previous election and then having denied making it at all)… they came up short because people had the baseball bats out for Gillard and took it out on WA Labor.
This time around, with the federal baseball bats angling in the other direction and with a solid bed of campaign pledges that are, conveniently, already budgeted, Labor is a shoo-in.
That McGowan seems likable and Barnett seems out-of-touch only makes it more the case.
Really though, I wish the Greens had a higher profile here at the state level. Ask a West Aussie (even some Greens voters) to name a Greens MP from WA – they’ll name Ludlam. There’s work to be done on their campaigning, for sure.
Sticking with McGowan despite the loss at the last election was the right move – this poll vindicates it.
The Misso tinge to the WA ALP is a serious impediment to future electoral success. WA Labor does best when it has a clear cut Labor right orientation.
WWP 14 – yes I think the WA economy is heading for a pretty bad run, and by the election in March 2017 it could be in the “bust” mode of WA’s “boom and bust” cycles. So probably curtains for Barnett, an “accidental” Premier – if I remember rightly he was going to quit politics at the 2009 election, but was suddenly elevated back into the Liberal leadership and became Premier soon after at the “early” 2008 election.
I find McGowan’s popularity in these polls completely mindboggling because no one I know can stand the bloke. People have obviously had enough of Barnett to the point where McGowan can still manage to slide in on the fact he’s not Colin Barnett.
I hope Labor at least learns their lessons from NSW: lacklustre preselection choices at the last two elections have really done them no favours, and WA Labor desperately needs more faces who don’t reek of the party machine.
ESJ: There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Missos power in WA as long as they elevate the right people. The “clear cut Labor right orientation” gave us Brian Burke, and he’s not far enough of of people’s memories if the candidates look like Sussex Street material just flew out west.
Arrnea: That is a spin job of the sort of NSW Labor people claiming they had a great result.
WA Labor ran a terrible campaign and got thrashed. They lost the former leader’s seat. They came within an inch of losing Midland, a feat previously only achieved by Joe Bullock. They went backwards despite having a bunch of low-hanging fruit that got elected accidentally in 2008 and should have been one-termers.
You’re right about the state Greens, though. The last election was a disaster, in that it took out their two best performers in Giz Watson and Alison Xamon, robbed them of a rising star in Cameron Poustie, and left them with the shabbier two. Chapple’s an alright bloke but is getting a bit old, but MacLaren needs to either retire or be knocked off in preselection: there is too much talent waiting in the wings to have deadwood on her level in a pretty safe Greens seat.
Both Labor and the Greens need to learn some serious lessons from 2013.
This is the point where that crooked cod Barnet always plays the joker:- succession (ie) WA wants more of the GST pie.
He does this every time and people fall for it hook line without so much as a sinker. Wish they would wise up in the west!!
@ Rebecca, 26
In the circles I travel (mostly non-political folks), WA Labor’s campaign in 2013 ran well, especially the Metronet pledge – the need for better public transport is well recognised down here in Mandurah. I remember hearing of some polling at the time that corroborated this – Metronet was a popular policy and the Liberals were losing support for not having something of equal significance in the area of public transport.
Cue Barnett’s hilarious ME TOO with MAX Light Rail and the airport line (both of which he squibbed after the election). Between people somehow believing Barnett a second time on rail and the federally-aimed baseball bats waiting, Labor didn’t have a chance and, given the narrowness of their loss under Carpenter (remember, the ALP actually won more lower house seats than the Liberals that time and there was brief talk of the Nats backing Labor into power), would reasonably have expected to go backwards in 2013.
Typo patrol: “of of 53%”