The Australian plugs what will presumably be an Easter polling break with Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns, featuring voting intention and leadership rating results since the start of the year broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan. The state figures differ from the current BludgerTrack readings in being weaker for Labor in Queensland, but stronger in New South Wales and Western Australia. Later this week I’ll incorporate these numbers into BludgerTrack and publish one of my complete quarterly updates. The other figures that stand out for me are the huge drops in Tony Abbott’s approval ratings in Western Australia (down 17% to 25%) and South Australia (down 11% to 19%), with his disapproval rating in South Australia at a remarkable 74%.
UPDATE 7/4 (Roy Morgan): The latest result from Roy Morgan, combining the last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3063, is a relatively strong result for the Coalition, who are up 2.5% on the primary vote to 40.5% with Labor down 4% to 36% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12.5%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this pans out to a big drop in Labor’s lead from 56-44 to 53-47, but the shift on previous election preferences is a good deal more modest, from 54-46 to 53-47.
UPDATE 8/4 (Essential Research): Essential’s fortnightly rolling average is steady at 53-47 to Labor, although Labor are down a point on the primary vote to 39%, with the Coalition steady on 40%, the Greens steady on 10% and Palmer United up one to 2%. Further questions find 69% opposed to raising the pension age to 70, with only 21% in support; 35% support for lowering the threshold for payment of GST on online purchases, with 45% opposed; and majorities in favour of banning alcohol advertising and raising the drinking age, but not discouraging consumption by increasing tax.
[Rupert Murdoch’s media empire in the US has siphoned off $4.5 billion of cash and shares from his Australian media businesses in the past two years, virtually tax free.]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/rupert-murdochs-us-empire-siphons-45-billion-from-australian-business-virtually-taxfree-20150405-1meu0l.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
It’s not WHAT you know . . . . .
http://www.smh.com.au/national/scots-boys-got-into-sydney-university-without-hsc-20150405-1medae.html
An excellent first person article on refereeing NRL.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/who-would-want-to-be-a-rugby-league-referee-20150405-1meqkk.html
One of the consequences of forcing people to work longer into life than they should.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/concern-about-workplace-cover-for-older-workforce-20150405-1me0ql.html
Something to look forward to?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/picture-this-why-image-is-everything-for-our-politicians-20150405-1mcv0a.html
Over to you Bronnie . . .
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/access-denied-journalists-lodge-complaint-about-threats-to-freedom-of-the-press-amid-parliament-security-crackdown-20150405-1mcttr.html
Paul Sheehan (and Warren Buffett) are not impressed with the financial “industry”.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/when-it-comes-to-moneyshufflers-its-time-for-the-whip-20150405-1meivv.html
Murdoch siphons $4.5b from Australia virtually tax free. And NewsCorp’s Australian CEO is due to front the Senate Committee this week. I wish the committee every success.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/rupert-murdochs-us-empire-siphons-45-billion-from-australian-business-virtually-taxfree-20150405-1meu0l.html
More job losses at the ATO.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/more-job-losses-as-tax-office-cuts-senior-communications-staff-20150405-1mdirx.html
“View from the Street” is not convinced in the genuineness of the new fluffy Scott Morrison.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-scott-morrison-easters-fluffy-social-services-bunny-20150405-1metp1.html
Anyone for a luxury trip on the Rhine?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/nsw/couple-lead-class-action-against-australian-travel-company-scenic-tours-after-holiday-ruined-by-rain-20150325-1m7465.html
Section 2 . . .
Fred Nile holds the balance of power in NSW in his bigoted hands. Just think about it!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fred-nile-holds-power-in-his-hands-20150405-1meqgs.html
This SMH editorial bemoans the decision of this government of ours to refuse to support victims of child abuse that now have nobody to seek redress from. Pretty much what one would expect from this crowd.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/child-sex-abuse-survivors-hopes-for-national-redress-scheme-take-a-whallop-20150406-1mdsmd.html
Looks like the “Reclaim Australia” rallies fizzed.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/05/they-came-they-swore-they-reclaimed-australia
Victoria Rollinson – If you don’t like Australia then leave!
http://theaimn.com/if-you-dont-love-australia-leave/
Policing Cleveland, Ohio style!
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/05/cleveland-officer-michael-brelo-137-shots-trial
Pat Campbell puts disability funding into perspective.
Mark Knight and the ISIL propaganda machine.
Good Morning
For those that have been attacking Bill Shorten look at his approval ratings.
Mr Shorten is in front on preferred PM. He is doing things right.
So, in South Australia Tony Abbott is in barbed-wire canoe territory. I wonder if there is any way he could show a bit of support for the state’s manufacturing sector to boost his submarine approval ratings?
On Morrison —
[ABC journalist Chris Uhlmann was giving the man mad props last month, and even m’colleague Peter Hartcher was singing Moz’s praises this very weekend for doing such apparently controversial things as “asking experts for advice” and “communicating with players in the sector”.
It says a lot for the current behaviour of the government that this is seen as bold, out-of-the-box thinking rather than, say, a basic requirement for responsible leadership.
So, what’s the answer? Is it a carefully orchestrated grooming campaign by the only plausible Liberal leadership challenger that the Right of the party will accept? Is he positioning himself as natural treasurer material if his former leader Malcolm Turnbull makes a post-budget run at the leadership, as The Saturday Paper have posited?
]
We all know the answer – he’s positioning himself to take over from Abbott.
Is the media really that thick?
At the time of the challenge, it was pretty much accepted that the party really didn’t want Malcolm (you could argue that he had, in fact, less support than the Empty Chair) but might go with him if they had absolutely no choice.
Delaying the removal of Abbott has given them time to find another contender, and it’s been fairly obvious all along that Morrison was in the mix.
So we now have the parade of fluffy bunny stories about Morrison, and instead of cynically curling a lip and portraying these as testing out another possible leader (and, btw, notice how the ‘isn’t Julie wonderful?” stories seem to have petered out? Didn’t the focus groups like her?) the media – in general – follow along.
If Morrison does get up, and then fails dismally, cue the chorus of ‘wow, who could have seen this coming?’
zoomster
I think that yes the media think their audience are that thick.
Good post
It does seem the Liberals are doing leadership change more cleverly than Labor. No one will be shocked when Abbott goes because that outcome has been conditioned unlike Rudd mk1. It will still be Turnbull in the next 6 months though.
ESJ
You’d think it would come as a shock to the msm though, given the general ‘Tony is turning the ship around’ air of most commentators.
zoomster
The coalition would only cop a turnbull/bishop ticket if things became dire and they needed a quick injection of support. Morrison is their preferred man. Too bad the electorate havent warmed to him as yet
Dee
How unsurprising that Murdoch is amongst the long list of multinationals able to avoid paying taxes
Morning all.
The WA results are incredible. How did it all go so badly for the Liberals in such a relatively short period of time?
And what a shame the federal election happens before the next state poll.
Ghost Who Votes reported last night that the 2pp from the Newspoll quarterly figures was 55-45 to Labor off primaries of 39 ALP, 38 Liberal 12 Greens and 11 others. Even allowing for roundings I can’t see how it could be that high.
Am I missing something?
Morrison wanted Defence, which shows where his comfort zone lies. However, he’s determined to be a Mr Fixit in whichever position he holds, so we have
[Peter Hartcher was singing Moz’s praises this very weekend for doing such apparently controversial things as “asking experts for advice” and “communicating with players in the sector”.]
Perhaps after he’s solved Welfare he can turn his mind to Education.
I’m in a bad mood this morning. How can the govt plead for the lives of the Bali pair, and ignore a dying Iranian on our shores? Unfortunately, with all the secrecy surrounding Immigration, we don’t know the facts, but I bet they don’t reflect well on anyone.
Honestly wish Abbott Hockey and co would stop wasting precious time. They need to stop playing games and give the funding for what Victorians want it for
[from what he described as a “wonderful” meeting with his federal counterpart Joe Hockey, suggesting that discussions were underway to try and divert some of Canberra’s money into level crossing removals.
However, Mr Hockey later issued a statement saying he had “expressed emphatically to the Victorian Treasurer that the $3 billion, including the $1.5 billion already provided, is only for the purposes of building the East West Link.”
Confusion surfaced again on Wednesday, with Mr Andrews backing up his Treasurer’s position on talkback radio. But when asked by Fairfax Media if federal money could be diverted as Victoria had claimed, the Prime Minister simply reaffirmed his view – that “Premier Andrews should honour the contract and build the Link.”]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-funds-could-be-diverted-to-level-crossings-near-roads-of-national-importance-andrews-20150404-1mei0h.html
Darn:
That’s what it says in the attachment.
lizzie
So easy being grumpy with this govt. They actually get me so worked up at times. Of course, it doesnt achieve anything much. Therefore i spend so much time talking myself out of a bad mood. 🙂
Bludgertrack is showing Labor gaining 3 seats in WA off a 2pp of 50.2 – 49.8. Does anyone have an idea of how many seats would change hands if anything like 54-46 to Labor was produced a Federal election over there?
“in a Federal election”
victoria
Early this morning I heard a discussion on RN about the extinction emergency in Australia. One contributor said that if the amount this government was spending on ‘defence’ in 2 weeks was put into an environment fund, the income would be of great benefit. The amount? $1 billion. Tony prefers roads and weapons. How much have we wasted going into the M.E.? 😡
Darn
I cant see WA remaining at 54/46 by the time the election comes around.
lizzie
Understand your frustration.
victoria@21
Might at least see a good recovery after the last debacle around the preselection.
Its odd that South Australians have worked out Abbott (74/19 bad) but not the LNP (only behind 47/53). Shorten also gets his worst result in SA (47/34 bad).
Wakefield
It seems to me from the polls that SA is angry – VERY angry. I predict they will go maverick in 2016 – minor parties will get the nod.
dtt – that will be a factor. Nick Xenophon is still very popular in SA. He has set up Nick Xenophon Team as a political party and will run or support lower house and upper house candidates throughout Australia according to the party web site. With his Senate vote around 26% in SA in 2010 he will be some chance to win HR seats.
Not sure what his strategy will be interstate but he has been pretty successful in creating a centre group among the 6 Senators apart from LDP and FF. There would be quite a few looking to get on his bandwagon.
From The Oz:
[Abbott’s net approval rating in the west has tumbled by a massive 35 points since Christmas.
…
An analysis of Newspolls conducted exclusively for The Australian in the first three months of this year also reveals that for the first time all states rank Bill Shorten as better prime minister.]
But where’s Bill’s policies? He’s not cutting through! He’s so boring! Bland, bland, bland!
Gee, I wish Labor would change leaders and get someone who can, y’know, cut through; not some union hack who just doesn’t appeal to the punters out there.
We need a bloke who’ll make a dent in the impregnable Abbott facade.
It ain’t rocket science, after all.
Oh, wait…
I guess the polling is the reason why there is some confidence here in WA that Hockey will find a way to help the State Government out of its financial troubles with a change to the GST distribution.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/political-donations-mining-hits-back-at-labor-20150405-1372gf.html
[But despite the leap in mining and energy donations, the sector was only the fifth on the list of industries that gave generously to the four major parties.
Their contribution was dwarfed by the banking, finance and insurance sector, who threw more than twice as much money into the political arena. Of the $4.8 million banking and finance companies declared as donations in 2013-14, nearly 75 per cent went to the Coalition.
“The Coalition is very keen to help the financial sector in a policy sense and that is reflected in the disproportionate amount of donations,” shareholder activist Stephen Mayne said.
Mr Mayne said the banks were encouraged by Coalition moves to wind back financial advice regulation as well as the government’s opposition to a new transaction tax and greater capital reserve requirements.]
WELL DARN IT !!! You’ve just got to feel sorry for the Imbecile PM Tony Abbott and the country’s Attorney General SC George Brandis.
That bloody Southbank all night Siege in Melbourne was not a Death Cult ISIS Terrorist Attack, just a bloody disgruntled former employee. DRATTTT !!!! That’s bad luck for you.
[daretotread
Posted Monday, April 6, 2015 at 9:17 am | PERMALINK
Wakefield
It seems to me from the polls that SA is angry – VERY angry. I predict they will go maverick in 2016 – minor parties will get the nod.]
I just want to see Pyne knocked off. Surely with these kind of figures there’s got to be a reasonable chance he will go.
[Peter Hartcher thinks he has ascended to a high clear place where he knows our political leaders well and can trumpet their virtues across the land, reinforcing our respect for them and him and also, perhaps, improving our understanding of how we are governed. Only when you read his pieces do you realise how much he is kidding himself. ]
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/peter-hartcher-and-kindness-of-strangers.html
Despite it all, Federal elections are not won and lost in WA.
NSW is the key.
For ever, when an Federal election is on, the media heree play the “It might come down to the wire in WA…..”. While this may have happened in the past, it is rare.
The usual case is that if a swing is on in the east then it is reflected in WA. And this applies to both sides.
I suspect things have turned a bit sour for the Libs locally. The Boom That Will Last For Ever, is clearly faltering though the FIFO car park at the airport looks busy still. The Emperor is not travelling well with more broken promises that fly specks on a wall in summer. His ministers, apart from the Police Minister, are performing poorly and the deficit gets bigger by the day. Nahan’s next budget will be interest to say the least.
In other words, the Liberal government here is very tired.
On the Federal level, Abbott slips in and out of WA and nobody knows or cares. Certainly his days of coming here to rev up the troops is long gone.
And, as someone else pointed out, there has been a bit of a fall off of the “I Love Julie” stuff in the local rag.
Having said all this, I doubt whether there are more than 2-3 extra seats for Labor here. However, given that this indicates big numbers for Labor elsewhere then it all helps.
The next Federal election is due before the next State one here so goodness only knows what that will mean.
victoria:
I’m genuinely surprised Hartcher is still around. I can’t remember the last time I read one of his columns.
[The next Federal election is due before the next State one here so goodness only knows what that will mean.]
Hopefully it will mean that a good number of the WA voters will take out their dissatisfaction with Barnett on the Feds.
Cue an increase in criticism of Bill Shorten from Menzies House trolls and the Polyanna Wing.
As for ToxicTony, his leadership looks terminal.
[The analysis revealed that the opposition leader, Bill Shorten, has for the first time been rated as the preferred prime minister across all states. Shorten enjoys a 10-point lead over Tony Abbott, who stands at 34%. But more than one in five Australians still remain uncommitted between the two leaders.
Nationwide, just 27% of respondents are satisfied with Abbott’s performance as prime minister, compared with 65% who are dissatisfied.
South Australians were the most disillusioned with Abbott’s performance, with only 19% saying they were satisfied with the prime minister. Abbott’s approval rating has tumbled 17 points since the last quarter in WA, now standing at 25%.]
http://trib.al/UX7V7QA
Has anyone else noticed that the streaming ABC24 has deteriorated badly in the past few weeks? I can’t remember the date when it first started to have blurred patches, but they’re constant now. My reception has always been hopeless with videos, but You-tube is still OK.
From previous thread.
bemused@1535 on ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor | The Poll Bludger
Tricot
barnett has broken almost all his election promises on spending, cut to the bone elsewhere and still the revenue is in free fall.
There is nothing left he can do except more increases in taxes and charges or wait for the rating agencies to lop another A off the credit rating.
As for Julie Bishop, I suspect she has made a strategic withdrawal. She has established herself as a contender (in her eyes of course) and will now wait for the next Abbott-Hockey crisis to turn the heat back up.
I am tipping a winter of discontent for the Tories.
An interesting piece by Tomas Sedacek
ECONOMIC AND THEOLOGICAL IMPOSSIBILITY OF JOY
http://www.tomassedlacek.cz/uploads/files/pHENxBdhNUgUxhwu/Sedlacek.pdf
From Ross Gittins this morning, article on Tomas
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/jesus-the-great-debteliminator-20150405-1mdkxq.html
Vale Gordon Moyes. A periodically progressive pastor of the Uniting Church in Sydney.
https://www.radioinfo.com.au/news/vale-2gbs-gordon-moyes
rossmcg@39
Trouble is for Labor here, that McGowan just can’t seem to get much traction. The West is always skewering his profile.
I just wonder if Barnett has the stomach actually so see it through to the next election?
If should be the Coalition goes down at the Federal election he will not even had a mate to help him – Christian Porter perhaps?
Any thoughts of who, if not Barnett, here in Sandgropia?
Fess
Hartcher appears on sky news to give his pov on the state of play. Although I have given sky news a miss since the non leadership spill
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015-smear-campaign-in-east-hills-reads-like-a-whodunnit-20150403-1mbw4s.html
This is a day or so late but well worth a read – will be interesting to see where this goes.
Tricot
I am not telling you anything when I say the fact the Barnett is still there shows the vacuum at the top of the WA libs.
the West Austraiian has run a few stories promoting Upper House MP Peter Katsambanis, a first termer who seems well connected and well thought of.
He has been linked to replacing Rob Johnson in Hillarys but the veteran troublemaker will want to pick his replacement if he even decides to retire in 2017.
There is also talk about the influence of a few MPs who all belong to the same northern suburbs church who may be looking to increase their power base with Hillarys in their sights.
Liza Harvey seems to to do well as Police Minister but that may be an easier gig than some. just front up for 30 seconds on the TV news, talk tough on law and order and had it over the boys in blue. When things go a bit wrong just cite operational matters and point the finger at the Commissioner.
Morning all. I find Abbott’s ratings in this state very unsurprising. He has been a disaster for SA. First there was manufacturing and the end of the car industry. That might be justifiable if he money saved on industry assistance was used to retrain and transition workers. But it wasn’t.
Then there was the budget – rail funds cut and road funds added, but only in Jamie Briggs electorate. Nice.
Now there is the threat of no submarine contract, save for 500 jobs, which is probably less than the number of press minders and writers Abbott employs to hide his idiocy. Not to mention a defence minister who thinks we could not be trusted to build a canoe. Personally I would not trust that minister to run a boy scout troop.
End result? People are losing their jobs here. Public finding has gone, but there is nothing to replace it. Private industry confidence is zero, as is hiring and investment. What does Abbott expect – a thank you note for trashing an entire state?
Seems as though the vertical axis on that approval rating graph will require another extension soon, I wonder if negative 60 will cover it.
If Abbott wasn’t so deserving, he would almost be worthy of sympathy.
rossmcg…Agree…Harvey comes across as competent which is more than can be said for Poster Boy Nalder.
What about Joe Francis? He kind of has that Bovver Boy edge the Liberals like in a leader.
https://mobile.twitter.com/narelleford/status/584891367203016705/photo/1
Like this tweet
Socrates @ 46
Local S.A. media seems a bit torn. Happy to rip into Abbott’s mob over subs, cars & industry to an extent but Jay & Tom are expected to find the money to make up for social services cuts. Not at the expense of anything else, of course.