The Seven Network has this evening brought us a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention which has Labor’s lead at 54-46. The last ReachTEL federal poll was way back on February 5, immediately before the Liberal Party leadership spill vote, at which time the Labor lead was 55-45. All we have on the primary vote, courtesy of The Guardian, is that “the Liberal party’s primary vote is up nearly a point to 35.4%, while Labor is down by the same margin to 40.5%”. The poll finds Tony Abbott’s personal standing to have improved since early February, although that’s not saying much. He ranks third as preferred Liberal leader at 24.2% behind Malcolm Turnbull (42.6%) and Julie Bishop (28.7%).
UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes: Coalition 39.6% (up 1.2%), Labor 40.5 (down 0.9%), Greens 11.5% (up 0.3%), Palmer United 2.2% (down 0.5%). The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2417.
Comforting numbers from R-TEL.
A few things get at me, particularly from the previous Essential, but also here
Large swathes of the electorate have simply written Tony Abbott off as the leader – they are now assuming that he will be replaced prior to the next election, and indicating their voting preferences accordingly.
Consequently, I wonder when pollsters will start asking a sub-question to those who indicated their belief that not-Abbott will be PM: “How would you vote if an election were held tomorrow, with Tony Abbott confirmed to be the Coalition’s leader?” or similar.
I’d be surprised if it wouldn’t be worth at least 1-1.5% to the Coalition to have Abbott written off as gawn, but if he’s still here come the next Election Day…
OK William: I wasn’t wanting to hassle you. This forum is a community of sorts and I’m kind of sorry to see anyone leave it. I particularly miss Psephos: I wish he’d come back.
briefly,
Not for Tony Abbott.
[4
Greensborough Growler]
I was thinking purely of myself. 🙂
Bet this lead story onabc and front page of mordor and fairfax alike
My bringing up of the assumption of Abbott’s departure isn’t just for psephological theory – as I believe I’ve indicated before on PB, there’s no obvious successor to Abbott.
Turnbull’s had his chance and whiffed (and the partyroom’s more right-wing than the one which dumped him in 2009).
Bishop (J) doesn’t want the job.
Bishop (B) might, but I don’t think even the Liberal partyroom’s silly enough.
Pity there’s no-one called Monk in the partyroom…what with all the Abbotts and Bishops around.
More seriously: every time a leader (PM or LOTO) was rolled, there has been an obvious successor – the vote to roll the leader is de facto a vote to install the rival. So who’s it going to be if/when Abbott gets rolled?
An inability to come up with a convincing answer to that question suggests that Tony Abbott’s PM-ship will last longer than most might think – particularly if the polls keep ticking up for the Coalition, toward “only bad” instead of “wipeout”.
[He ranks third as preferred Liberal leader at 24.2% behind Malcolm Turnbull (42.6%) and Julie Bishop (28.7%).]
With the leadership presumably settled for the time being, I wonder how much longer polls will continue the preferred Liberal leader question?
Confessions @8:
Good question. I’d give it two months more, absent another gaffe from Abbott that (again) puts his occupancy of The Lodge into question.
Kinkajou @6:
[Bet this lead story onabc and front page of mordor and fairfax alike]
Sure it will be – I can see it now! “Polls shift toward Coalition!” “Shorten fizzling under heat!” etc. etc.
I thought the nats leader was going to give a run for leadership?
[Matt
More seriously: every time a leader (PM or LOTO) was rolled, there has been an obvious successor – the vote to roll the leader is de facto a vote to install the rival. So who’s it going to be if/when Abbott gets rolled?]
The other side get to pick. Shorten is on roster.
If the LNP cannot sort things out, the electorate will do it for them.
Zoidlord @11:
[I thought the nats leader was going to give a run for leadership?]
Seriously? He’d be the first non-caretaker Nationals PM if so.
briefly @12:
[The other side get to pick. Shorten is on roster.
If the LNP cannot sort things out, the electorate will do it for them.]
Indeed…do you think the assumption that Abbott will go (sooner or later, but before the next election) is affecting the results, and if so, got an idea by how much?
The Libs are in the “kidding themselves” phase of leadership change.
Everywhere I go, people are yearning for a change of leadership. This is more pronounced in Liberal circles than Labor ones.
Abbott is the proverbial carcass swinging in the breeze and Hockey is totally incapable of conducting a serious conversation about economic reform without resorting to pre-ordained spin.
The Libs have played the electorate for mugs since they took power and their incompetence is really starting to grate.
Shorten has not announced anything particularly controversial and is creating the solid impression that he’s a safe pair of hands to take over the reigns of power at the right time.
The Libs are a volcano ready to erupt. When she blows it will be spectacular. I understand they heard the Krakatoa explosion in London. This one will be heard on Mars.
Matt:
Maybe. I can’t remember exactly how often we got the preferred Labor leader during the last parliament, but my recollection is it was pretty frequent.
GG:
We keep being told that the budget is the next benchmark for Abbott to get over. I’ve got no confidence that Hockey will do any better this time around, but we shall see what Abbott is capable of.
Brandis has been quiet since the leadership spill too. Obviously they aren’t taking any more chances with him running his mouth.
Just read the Guardian take on the poll. Does Dennis Shanahan work for the Gridion now?
fess,
Hockey’s just another Liberal spiv telling you it’s raining while peeing on your leg.
[13
Matt
briefly @12:
The other side get to pick. Shorten is on roster.
If the LNP cannot sort things out, the electorate will do it for them.
Indeed…do you think the assumption that Abbott will go (sooner or later, but before the next election) is affecting the results, and if so, got an idea by how much?]
I think the uncertainty surrounding the leadership will be hurting the LNP. Of course, there’s no way to quantify this. Thematically, it must feed into perceptions that the LNP have not lived up to their election promises. On the budget, the economy, their spending commitments and on leadership, the LNP have failed.
Voters have always had their reservations about Abbott. Now these have widened to include his ministers and his party generally.
The contrast with Labor – moderate, consistent, temperate and predictable – is not favourable for the LNP.
sohar@17: the Grauniad article is remarkably Shanahanesque, isn’t it? I thought it was meant to be a lefty rag?!
briefly,
Those predicting the ‘end of times” for Shorten and Labor over the metadata legislation are very quiet. Either they have been arrested or too embarrassed to raise their ugly mugs above the parapet.
21
Greensborough Growler
They’ve been eaten by gremlins, I suspect, GG.
Yes, MB. It makes 24% approval for Abbott sound like he is loved again and notes Abbott’s disapproval drop to 58%, but only noting that Shorten’s is still the same, but no number – probably because it is a long way from 58. No net satisfaction ratings.
briefly @19:
[I think the uncertainty surrounding the leadership will be hurting the LNP. Of course, there’s no way to quantify this. Thematically, it must feed into perceptions that the LNP have not lived up to their election promises. On the budget, the economy, their spending commitments and on leadership, the LNP have failed.
Voters have always had their reservations about Abbott. Now these have widened to include his ministers and his party generally.
The contrast with Labor – moderate, consistent, temperate and predictable – is not favourable for the LNP.]
Indeed it is not, and I hadn’t considered the drag that instability in general would be on the LNP’s polling numbers.
Which in turn raises the question: Assuming that Abbott’s not gawn, what do you think will happen to the L/NP poll numbers when it becomes clear that he’s here for the long haul?
briefly,
Greenlins!
zoidlord@11
So did you find that link about the rise of fixed lines vs mobiles, or is it a figment of your fevered imagination?
[Hockey’s just another Liberal spiv telling you it’s raining while peeing on your leg.]
He’s not alone on that front!
sohar @24:
[Yes, MB. It makes 24% approval for Abbott sound like he is loved again]
Well, they’re about one-quarter right!
-ducks hail of thrown calculators-
-bows-
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Wednesday, April 1, 2015 at 8:03 pm | Permalink
The Libs are a volcano ready to erupt. When she blows it will be spectacular. I understand they heard the Krakatoa explosion in London. This one will be heard on Mars.
]
Not quite.
The explosion was supposedly heard in Perth, (WA not Scotland) and is recognised as the loudest sound in human history.
As for London’s role in the story, the resultant tsunami travelled around the world at least 3 times and they were able to see it when they went back through the tidal records for the Thames.
Great story, I had the good fortune to travel out to Anak Krakatoa, Son of Krakatoa, a few years ago when in Sumatra.
Simon Winchester has written a great book on the event, Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded.
Full ReachTEL results:
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-29march2015
re kezza
I wish it were not so.
MOE.
All those barnacles removed. All those backflips. For nothing.
The Great Ungrateful.
Reachtel… Just in time for the next Bludgertrack update?
My grandfather heard Krakatoa at home in Dresden – or so I was told as a kid.
[The Great Ungrateful.]
You mean The Age of Entitlement. 😀
Matt,
Don’t bow. The villain in this pantomime is directly behind you and intent on shoving one of those calcualtors where the sun don’t shine!
[25
Greensborough Growler
briefly,
Greenlins!]
lol
[Reachtel… Just in time for the next Bludgertrack update?]
Probably not actually. I’m likely to delay it until tomorrow night so I can use their state breakdowns.
William Bowe@38
I’m afraid this was a possibility.
Would have hoped that the polls are balanced out over two weeks.
[24
Matt
Which in turn raises the question: Assuming that Abbott’s not gawn, what do you think will happen to the L/NP poll numbers when it becomes clear that he’s here for the long haul?]
It depends on his conduct. Every time he or his ministers are heard or seen making a blue, public cynicism will be validated. Voters are primed to see their errors not their successes. If he can string together 8-12 months with no serious blunders, he may retrieve his credibility. But if they make more hi-viz mistakes, they will only confirm what is already widely believed – that they’re not up to it.
Interesting that Coalition wailed long and loud about Labor reducing funding for defence and that they’d restore it. Now they’re going to reducing funding/staff/getting rid of Defence Materiel. Sub purchase/build won’t happen at all is my guess.
Apparently, the Libs are in an electoral rennaisance period according to the MSM authorities.
The reality is 53/47 or better for Labor, an electorate switched off from the incumbent Government and the cold reality that no one is really interested at the moment.
This will continue the Lib complacency. All good for the alternative Leader and Government.
@don/26
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/8153.0Main%20Features5December%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=8153.0&issue=December%202014&num=&view=
Fixed line(a) December 2013: 823,421 TB | June 2014: 963,429 TB | December 2014: 1,112,379 TB.
Wireless(b) December 2013: 37,426 TB | June 2014: 32,731 TB | December 2014: 34,339 TB.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/8153.0Main%20Features1December%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=8153.0&issue=December%202014&num=&view=
DSL: December 2013: 4,898,000 | June 2014: 5,065,000 | December 2014: 5,099,000
Mobile wireless: December 2013: 6,040,000 | June 2014: 5,954,000 December 2014: 5,996,000
Both data and subscriber numbers for fixed line vs mobile wireless mean that Fixed alone has risen.
Mobile is stagnated.
Not sure why Reachtel would do a survey the same weekend as a state poll.
The poll was conducted last night.
Another poll based on 2013 preferences. Good if they gave preferences now, as well, like Morgan do.
The cowardly defenders of Labor’s metadata retention laws will be changing their tune when confronted with the scandals which will caused. Inappropriate use of data. Hacking. Abuses of power. Silencing of whistleblowers.
It is not healthy for a party to be defined by cowardice. Such a party may fall into government because of the other side’s mistakes, but it will never enjoy authority, credibility, and the ability to communicate well with the Australian people.
William,
Just going by what the Guardian says, “The Seven News ReachTel poll of 2,400 people was conducted on Sunday..”. Mind you, I’d trust you for accuracy over the Guardian any day.
Oops, Guardian was right according to Reachtel, “ReachTEL conducted a survey of 2,417 residents across Australia during the evening of 29th March 2015.” 29th is Sunday.
Nicholas anyone who believes they have any sort of privacy on the internet is a fool. The argument agaist metadata retention is limited to a cost/benifit analysis.