ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The first ReachTEL federal poll in quite some time confirms that Tony Abbott’s personal standing isn’t quite as bad as it was at the time of the leadership spill motion, but otherwise offers no joy to the Coalition.

The Seven Network has this evening brought us a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention which has Labor’s lead at 54-46. The last ReachTEL federal poll was way back on February 5, immediately before the Liberal Party leadership spill vote, at which time the Labor lead was 55-45. All we have on the primary vote, courtesy of The Guardian, is that “the Liberal party’s primary vote is up nearly a point to 35.4%, while Labor is down by the same margin to 40.5%”. The poll finds Tony Abbott’s personal standing to have improved since early February, although that’s not saying much. He ranks third as preferred Liberal leader at 24.2% behind Malcolm Turnbull (42.6%) and Julie Bishop (28.7%).

UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes: Coalition 39.6% (up 1.2%), Labor 40.5 (down 0.9%), Greens 11.5% (up 0.3%), Palmer United 2.2% (down 0.5%). The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2417.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,535 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. AA,

    [He’s the only one still at university and will finish his double degree in law and psychology this year]

    Wow. That’s an interesting mix. Good on him.

    I’m in my final semester of law. I think about 70% of my first-year cohort dropped out.

  2. Someone else may have already posted this, I have been otherwise occupied, but I think it is a good review of what penalty rates mean and whom they affect.

    I especially liked this about BK’s local member –

    “Australians who complain about penalty rates are often not themselves required to work unsociable hours. Assistant Infrastructure Minister Jamie Briggs told a business audience last year he was unable to dine at his favourite restaurant on New Year’s Eve because penalty rates forced it to close. I phoned his office on Good Friday. He wasn’t there.”

  3. [I take it there is no Newspoll due to Easter?]

    That old “vivaciousness of private ownership!” strikes again.

  4. Puff

    You are right about the useless job agencies. Waste of time. If you a woman over 50 the only job you will score is cleaning, even if you have triple degrees.

  5. Rocket Rocket:

    Should Parliamentarians get penalty rates for working late at night, or attending electorate functions on weekends?

  6. 1511

    Politicians are not paid by the hour. There is no requirement by their employer to attend electorate functions. Politicians also receive a high salary.

  7. [Honestly people yopu can be thick headed.]

    I have always said DTT was mad — she has now descended into Kezza-land and will suffer a similar fate if she doesn’t start showing a bit of respect and stop arguing the most ridiculousness of tabloid stuff.

  8. Now now Darren

    Mad I might be but my stuff is definitely NOT Tabloid. Do try to learn to comprehend an argument.

    Darren as you are one of the 3 most unpleasant posters on this site, I do rather feel the little pot is calling the kettle black. Personally I preferred Kezza’s honest abuse to your snide griping but hey it is William’s site.

    Now when did “thick headed” become a serious term of abuse. I could perhaps have used obtuse, lacking in comprehension, slow witted or narrow minded. Would you prefer one of these?

  9. TTFATB:

    Great, so its up to the employee to decide whether they want the salary or the penalty rates…it shouldn’t be imposed from outside?

    I reckon we are getting somewhere tonight. Congratulations……although I suspect you don’t realise it.

  10. 1519

    Most of the employees that those employers who are complaining about the cost of having to pay penalty rates are being paid a lot less than a politicians salary and those employers would much rather pay them penalty rates than politician sized salaries.

  11. Penalty rates are compensation for having someone else decide when you are going to work. I would not discount the OS@H aspect of penalties either. Employers should be thinking twice about giving double shifts, and if overtime penalties make them do that then penalties are worth having.

  12. Regarding age, the public sector doesn’t seem to have an issue with hiring older employees, but its like anything, it comes back to our one presents and with job seeking there is an element of luck.

  13. “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-1) ALP 55 (+1) #auspol”

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #Newspoll Jan-Mar Quarterly Primary Votes: L/NP 38 (+1) ALP 39 (+1) GRN 12 (0) Others 11 (-2) #auspol”

    [Tony Abbott’s standing rises in Queensland but plunges in WA
    THE AUSTRALIAN APRIL 06, 2015 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    The federal Coalition’s stronghold in Western Australia has been shattered, with its primary vote crashing to a 14-year low as Tony Abbott’s net approval ­rating in the west has tumbled by a massive 35 points since Christmas.

    In Queensland, where a state Labor government has recently taken power, support for the ­Abbott government has jumped to a 12-month high and it has become the Coalition’s strongest voting bloc in the ­nation.

    An analysis of Newspolls conducted exclusively for The Australian in the first three months of this year also reveals that for the first time all states rank Bill Shorten as better prime minister.

    And it found the Prime Minister is most unpopular in South Australia where satisfaction with his performance has fallen to just 19 per cent — beating the previous record low of 22 per cent for Julia Gillard in Queensland in 2012.

    It is the worst approval rating for a prime minister in any state since 1996.

    The analysis, based on Newspoll surveys of 4667 voters in the March quarter, also shows a drop for the Greens in WA and Victoria and the third consecutive fall in support for independents and minor parties, such as the Palmer United Party, in Queensland.]
    [Newspoll: Heartland support for Fortress Abbott goes west, fast
    THE AUSTRALIAN APRIL 06, 2015 12:00AM
    Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra

    Western Australia has been a fortress for the Coalition for the entire 5½ years Tony Abbott has been Liberal leader, yet between Christmas and Easter the west has been lost.

    It surprised many when the uprising against the Prime Minister in February was led by West Australian backbenchers Luke Simpkins and Don Randall. At the last election, the Coalition won 12 of Western Australia’s 15 federal seats, repeating the dominance under Abbott in 2010.]

  15. So there we have it all those flags at pressers have not worked and Abbott is damaging the Lberal brand as some LNP MP’s have feared.

    More flag waving to come. With the centenary of Anzac going forward selling the budget is going to be harder as comerations go on.

  16. [1454


    I really find that “all wealth comes from human capital” to be fatuous C**p.]

    I agree. Fortunately, that’s not what I have asserted.

    [Wealth comes from what we humans find, grow, catch, dig, or make. Societies grow wealthy when the things they find, grow, catch, dig, or make are surplus to essential needs for survival.]

    As a theory of economy, “Growing wealthy by finding stuff or digging” does come up just a bit short. It’s funny. But it’s not much to go on.

  17. [In Queensland, where a state Labor government has recently taken power, support for the ­Abbott government has jumped to a 12-month high and it has become the Coalition’s strongest voting bloc in the ­nation.]

    That’s not what Bludgertrack is telling us – unless the 46.9-53.1 2pp is the best the coalition has done in Queensland over the past twelve months.

  18. Leroy Lynch @1524:

    Trust the Oz to find the silver lining for the Liberals – now, apparently, Queensland’s the “bright spot” – at 50/50 TPP, with a State Labor Government that seems to have rather significantly failed to properly vet its candidates (not that I particularly blame them…with just 7 MLAs after the previous election, they weren’t exactly long on resources!).

    Silentmajority @1529:

    You’re reading it correctly. It say 54-46 to ALP in WA.

    It’s bulldust, of course – the last time the ALP beat 51% in WA was in 1983, and the last time they got 50% or better was 1987 – but it’s what the Newspoll is saying.

    One wonders why the Oz is commissioning dodgy, ALP-friendly polls? Perhaps in the hope of convincing Labor that the next election is unloseable, to encourage complacency on their parts?

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    It’s not WHAT you know . . . . .
    An excellent first person article on refereeing NRL.
    One of the consequences of forcing people to work longer into life than they should.
    Something to look forward to?
    Over to you Bronnie . . .
    Paul Sheehan (and Warren Buffett) are not impressed with the financial “industry”.
    Murdoch siphons $4.5b from Australia virtually tax free. And NewsCorp’s Australian CEO is due to front the Senate Committee this week. I wish the committee every success.
    More job losses at the ATO.
    “View from the Street” is not convinced in the genuineness of the new fluffy Scott Morrison.
    Anyone for a luxury trip on the Rhine?

  20. Section 2 . . .

    Fred Nile holds the balance of power in NSW in his bigoted hands. Just think about it!
    This SMH editorial bemoans the decision of this government of ours to refuse to support victims of child abuse that now have nobody to seek redress from. Pretty much what one would expect from this crowd.
    Looks like the “Reclaim Australia” rallies fizzed.
    Victoria Rollinson – If you don’t like Australia then leave!
    Policing Cleveland, Ohio style!
    Pat Campbell puts disability funding into perspective.

    Mark Knight and the ISIL propaganda machine.

  21. Happiness@1519


    Great, so its up to the employee to decide whether they want the salary or the penalty rates…it shouldn’t be imposed from outside?

    I reckon we are getting somewhere tonight. Congratulations……although I suspect you don’t realise it.

    What a complete moron you are!

    You know damn well that there is no parity of bargaining power with individual contracts in most cases so the employee will get screwed in an unfair contract.

    If there is equality of bargaining power then I would not see any problem. Workers attempt to obtain this through their unions, but then you Torys just hate unions and are dedicated to their destruction.

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