ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The first ReachTEL federal poll in quite some time confirms that Tony Abbott’s personal standing isn’t quite as bad as it was at the time of the leadership spill motion, but otherwise offers no joy to the Coalition.

The Seven Network has this evening brought us a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention which has Labor’s lead at 54-46. The last ReachTEL federal poll was way back on February 5, immediately before the Liberal Party leadership spill vote, at which time the Labor lead was 55-45. All we have on the primary vote, courtesy of The Guardian, is that “the Liberal party’s primary vote is up nearly a point to 35.4%, while Labor is down by the same margin to 40.5%”. The poll finds Tony Abbott’s personal standing to have improved since early February, although that’s not saying much. He ranks third as preferred Liberal leader at 24.2% behind Malcolm Turnbull (42.6%) and Julie Bishop (28.7%).

UPDATE: Full results here. Primary votes: Coalition 39.6% (up 1.2%), Labor 40.5 (down 0.9%), Greens 11.5% (up 0.3%), Palmer United 2.2% (down 0.5%). The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2417.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,535 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. [Thats because you are not reading my posts.]

    This is true, I’ve largely skimmed past them. As to what makes them to understand, as I’ve pointed out, even when your own words are cited back to you, you pretend you were referring to something else.

    To be honest, I can’t really be bothered with that shit.

  2. The ABS Job Search Experience Survey shows that in July 2010, around half of long-term unemployed people (49%) had not attained Year 12 or above as their highest educational attainment. This compared with around two fifths (41%) of people who had been unemployed for less than 12 months and with around one-quarter (24%) of those who had started their current job in the last 12 months.

    Around three-quarters (74%) of discouraged job seekers aged 65 years and over reported that the main reason they were not actively looking for work was because they were considered too old by employers.

    Younger discouraged job seekers aged 15-44 years were more likely to have cited their lack of necessary schooling, training, skills or experience (34%) or the lack of jobs in their locality or line of work (22%).

    People aged 15 years and over who were long-term unemployed were four times as likely as employed people to say that their health was only fair or poor (34% compared with 9%). They were twice as likely as employed people to be a current smoker (44% compared with 22%), twice as likely as those employed to have back pain, back problems or disc disorders (32% compared with 16%) and almost three times as likely to have mental or behavioural problems (27% compared with 11%).

  3. Nicholas

    hopefully you are following your own advice and not getting an education. After all, what guarantee do you have that you’ll get a job at the end of it?

    [She cannot work here because of an economic theory to which you subscribe: neoliberalism.]

    No, she cannot work here because she CHOSE to study a course which led to a career with limited options in Australia.

    I take it you are now stretching your job guarantee to mean that not only guarantee everyone a job but guarantee everyone the job they want?

    We’d end up with a lot of racing car drivers, TV presenters, rockstars, actors and kindergarten teachers and nothing much else.

  4. Briefly

    I really find that “all wealth comes from human capital” to be fatuous C**p.

    Of course if you define capital so widely that it includes land, humans, wildlife, forests, a spear and a brain, then I guess it is true but it is as useful as tits on a bull in explaining how the world works.

    Wealth comes from what we humans find, grow, catch, dig, or make. Societies grow wealthy when the things they find, grow, catch, dig, or make are surplus to essential needs for survival. As societies advance they start to trade and this lets them acquire things they did not have in exchange for things they have in abundance.

    Plenty of societies grew wealthy without a hint of any capital in sight.

    The concept of “capital” is very much a modern term related firstly to the arrival of money and secondly to the emergence of a mercantile class with surplus funds they could invest.

    Capital is just ONE way that societies grow wealthy. There are plenty of others. Slavery for example made Rome wealthy, but then I guess you can define that as purchasing human capital, but I prefer NOT to do this as it is basically silly. Monarchies and theocracies with autocratic rule can grow very wealthy, although society is not very equal. Not much “capital” involved.

  5. mexican

    What I would like is for people to do their best. That they be given the resources to do so. I only included the high school dropout becomes successful business owner because its the exception that proves the rule.

    As for journalism I think it was better before degrees as a requirement for the job. Just another example of how when full employment and money were not a problem quality journalism flourished and degrees were not required.

  6. In May 2003, the unemployment rate for people aged 20-64 years with higher education qualifications (3%) was half the rate for those without such qualifications (6%).

    Higher education qualifications provide a substantial advantage in the labour market. Higher education graduates are less likely to be unemployed and tend to have higher incomes than those without such qualifications. Having a highly educated workforce can also lead to increased productivity and innovation and make Australia more competitive in the global market

  7. Guytaur

    On Journalism, the case could be made that media standards were higher before a degree was required but then again the media standards might be more a reflection of the media companies

  8. AA

    One only needs to take a look at Seek, if you have a degree plus some experience, the labour market looks pretty strong.

  9. mexican

    I think with journalism its a bit of both. Less independent thinking so easier to go along with the herd. Also the inevitable quality loss as revenue falls with the advent of the internet.

  10. Knowledge is a form of capital, capital is basically any input that goes into a product, knowledge is a key form of capital as it is knowledge that enables you to identify a problem and to identify the solution.

    Knowledge is power

  11. Zoidy

    Networking is an increasingly important part of job seeking, I’m not sure if this is necessarily a new thing but its importance has been growing, this is why it makes little sense to sen the unemployed to the non mainstream labour market.

  12. [Higher education qualifications provide a substantial advantage in the labour market. ]

    I could be wrong, but I do remember reading a Mega George or similar columnist’s article laying out that the difference is esp significant between those with and without high school qualifications/leavers certificates.

  13. Honestly people yopu can be thick headed. Let us take “jobs” that rely on physical skill eg Olympians or footballers. We can educate/train every kid in the country to run and play like a Spartan so that every kid born today is a better runner/player in 15 years is better than every current athlete. Does this mean they will ALL get spots with the Swans or Eagles? Not at all. Only the best of the best will get spots.

    It is the same with education. We can train everyone to be first class physicists but still only the top 20 will get jobs.

    Education is essentially like choosing the best tennis coach so that you will be the one who makes it to Wimbledon, rather than that other loser who is the second best in Australia.

    Oh and Bill Gates hid not complete his “education”

  14. @MB/1462

    Networking is hampered by Job Industry.

    You know the people that suppose to find jobs for people, but don’t.

  15. Excuse the ignorance of the aging fella.

    Looking at getting a tablet. Want something that connects to 3/4G. Something I can just throw in a carry bag instead of a lap top
    Wi-Fi confuses me. And I can’t be bothered learning.

    Any suggestions???

  16. JPS one of the biggest wastes of taxpayer money and a cash cow for the corporations rather than anything useful for the unemployed

  17. dtt

    [Does this mean they will ALL get spots with the Swans or Eagles? Not at all. Only the best of the best will get spots.]

    But we don’t educate people with the aim of them doing a particular specific role. Even when we train physicists, there is no expectation – even from those undertaking the degree – that they will end up as physicists.

    Of the physicists I knew (not many, of course), one chose to switch to meteorology, and another went into the public service and then management.

    Your analogy ignores the fact that, even when kids do devote a considerable part of their lives to trying to get spots with the Swans or Eagles, when they fail they still have skills which will advantage them. Some will pursue careers related to the sport they trained for, as coaches, talent scouts, sports journalists, etc. Others will use their experience as a stepping stone to other careers.

    Your assumption seems to be: X did a Mathematics course. X has not ended up working in pure Mathematics. Therefore it was a waste of time for X to study Mathematics.

  18. [Education is essentially like choosing the best tennis coach so that you will be the one who makes it to Wimbledon, rather than that other loser who is the second best in Australia.]

    Education is nothing like choosing a tennis coach. Not that I’ve ever chosen an elite tennis coach with the hopes of competing at Wimbledon, but I have gotten an education and do have a job, like hundreds of thousands of other Australians, thereby disproving your hysterical analogy.

    [Oh and Bill Gates hid not complete his “education”]

    I have no idea about Bill Gates’ education, but there is always an exception to the rule. Plenty of uneducated people have gone on to be successful multi millionaires. But in any case, what these people have to do with the clear relationship between education and employment is anyone’s guess, and I have no idea why you’re bringing them up.

  19. AA:

    I am putting off going the tablet route, but in my circle of friends and acquaintances, the most popular ones are iPads and Samsungs.

  20. If you are a woman and over fifty, it does not matter much what education you have, you are societal waste. Especially if you have had time out to be a carer. You might as well retire to a cave in the mountains. Society is done with you.

  21. @Rummel/1471

    And your mates – the Coalition Party – want to increases the student drop out rate and debt burden.

  22. Further to Zoomster’s comment, the standard undergrad degree will provide students with a wide range of concepts, some which will not be related to where they want to work but may enhance the person’s ability to collaborate with people whose job is directly related to those units.

    I.T is a good example, I don’t care for it but understanding it enables me to discuss technology with I.T people although I clearly will never fully understand their job

  23. Confessions
    Mate has an Apple. But he lives in the metro area andhas no problems connecting

    I’m just looking for something easier to carry than a laptop.

  24. Rummel

    Part of the reason for that is many go to University without a clear focus, many seem to just want the best paying job available.

    Anyone wants to see this mindset should read some of the threads over at Whirlpool.

  25. Job agencies are a curse on the planet. I recently had one tell me I my call centre experience (for a bank no less) was irrelevant because it was more than 2 years ago. Oh, I see, I have forgotten how to talk on a telephone. We answer the phone with our feet now do we, or maybe I have not gained the new skill of talking out of my ars er butt required of public contact operators?

  26. Puffy

    Was that a Job Service provider or a mainstream recruitment agency

    If its JSP, I wouldn’t be bothered, if its a normal recruitment agency, and I really wanted that line of work I would make a point of calling that recruiter one a week or every few days for a general hello chat.

  27. AA:

    I don’t know. All my friends with tablets use them to connect to the internet. Seems you may need to have further discussions with people who have similar internet connectivity issues to yourself.

  28. rummel
    The drop out rate is higher for private school students than public school students. The private schoolers hit the real world and struggle. They usually have daddy and mummy to fall back on.

    Abbott was a struggler who got by on his parent’s determination for him to succeed. He spends his life fulfilling his parent’s expectations and just keeos failing on bigger and bigger stages.

  29. beemer
    It was a recruiter and it was a specific job for the State gov’t answering calls from aged people. Not quite sure what but it ticked all my boxes. I got through the first round and was told she would call me back. After no call, I called every day for a week. Finally the young woman got onto me and said my call centre work was more than 48 months ago. I don’t actually want call centre work, especially sales or that 15 second customer service stuff, but that was a good mix of everything.

  30. Puffy

    That is an interesting observation, has there been studied into the performance of public verses private school students at university.

    In my time at university there were only two students who I felt had the wrong attitude, both were right wing, one clearly came from a well off background although i do feel that he will okay at work if he has a good mentor, the other kid just had a stinking snotty attitude although I don’t know anything about his background.

  31. @MB/1478

    It doesn’t matter if its JSP or mainstream providers, because I had done both, it doesn’t matter, if you are out of work too long, you are screwed, how can you find work if they want you having a recent work (say less than 6 months of being out of work – probably go as far as 3 months).

    This is another set of government screw-ups of oxymoron arguments.

    They want their cake, and eat it too.

  32. beemer
    Yes, I read that stat somewhere. Public school students drop out less than private school students.

  33. Drop out does not surprise me.

    Pretty obvious Abbott has got issues and the worst of it is he is failing Australia.

    On a lighter point…for a man whose Dad was a dentist he has lousy looking teeth

  34. Rummel
    A big waste for the parents who spent tens/hundred of thousands on the kid’s education.

  35. @Puff/1481

    In my view, the Coalition Party argument that duplication is bad thing when Labor was building FULL FTTP Network, but they are ok with duplication of Private Health Insurance, Private Education, and Private Banks, as well as utility networks.

    This is another set of oxymoron arguments.

  36. AussieAchmed
    Comes from eating too many taw onions.
    (Abbott will always be known as the bloke who ate the raw onion.)

  37. Puffy

    I love those ones, as I wrote earlier the best thing to do is to just call them once a week or within a few days of applying for a role, I find the first time I encounter a recruiter, I get some excuse but I have found that by working them then sometimes results come.

    I describe it as being like marginal seat campaigning.

  38. @MB/1491

    So in other words is about the size of ones wallet and how annoying you can be, rather than finding that person a job.

  39. Liberal complete their Fraudband and won’t be able to sell it off without some massive taxpayer dollars promised to assist with maintenance/upgrades/replacement as copper deteriorates and fails

    At least with Labor’s plan it would have a world class system that would have attracted top dollar at time of sale

  40. zoidlord 1490

    My new partners son went to University. He had to be residential because we live in a regional town. 5 mates of his from school all started at the same time. He grew up in a single income house (until we got together). His mates families are well off. One of his mates who we see regularly is struggling to get a job, his Dad won’t even employ him in his business as a TA

    He’s the only one still at university and will finish his double degree in law and psychology this year

  41. The minute humans settled, built permanent structures, kept livestock and planted fields they commenced accruing capital.

  42. Zoidy

    The key difference between the mainstream recruiters and the JSP, the JSP provider is paid the longer you are unemployed, the normal recruiter is only paid when you fill an assignment.

    They already have a well developed database so in order to put yourself forward you do have to lobby them, of course its a fine balancing act as recruiters hate job spamming hence the 40 job applications a month idea was just pathetic.

    Job seeking can be a frustrating thing which isn’t helped by the idiots who like to waffle on about dole bludgers.

  43. @MB/1496

    There is no key difference, otherwise there wouldn’t be an unemployment crises.

    The same people you are talking about are the same ones you are referring to the talking about “dole bludgers”.

  44. [ Mate has an Apple. But he lives in the metro area andhas no problems connecting

    I’m just looking for something easier to carry than a laptop. ]

    AA. I’m usually into Android, but we had to get an iPad for the offspring as she started high school this year. OH got a really good deal on eBay for a 64Gb iPad 4.

    Put a proper glass screensaver on it and the daughter loves it. When it came the seller had left their 4G sim card in it and the internet conectivity as we tested it was LOTS faster than our crappy old copper fixed line broadband.

    We dont have a sim in it now and hotspot to a mobile phone if needed.

    iPad is nice, works well for internet, email and photos and that sounds like what you want it for. Android tablets are better for me ( as i like a bit more freedom than the Apple ecosystem allows in terms of apps and transferring files around ) but maybe not for you??

    I’m definitively not an apple fan, but for the less tech savvy, or people who just can be bothered tinkering and want something that works straight out of the box iPad is a pretty good idea. Second hand if in good nick is fine as the LiPo batteries in use now last a lot longer than the old 2 year phone battery cycle.

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