The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.
Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.
Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.
UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.
[‘This matter is now behind us’, says PM]
Like a red hot poker.
It’s a brilliant result for Shorten/ ALP victoria.
The hopeless and unloved Abbott is still pm. He won’t change a thing, it’s not in his nature to do so. He will continue to careen around the place wondering why nobody appreciates him but expecting they will any day.
Low target, low key, low promises is Shorten’s best advice me thinks.
[Anyways it’s a good day… the sun is shining.. the birds are singing and Abbott is still PM.]
I have to agree TBA. It’s a great day for Labor.
[‘This matter is now behind us’, says PM]
Yep, and it’s carrying a knife.
[Tony Abbott’s leadership has suffered a massive blow – inevitably one that will prove fatal to his leadership.]
This is listed as “analysis” by the SMH …
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-removal-as-prime-minister-not-a-case-of-if-but-when-20150208-139f2p.html
No wonder the paid Press are crashing
Cud – You talking about the National Buffering Network? The dickhead should have delayed reaching an agreement with Telstra and swivelled back to the labor NBN. Too late now.
How can Abbott ask the senate to pass his legislation when most of his back-bench think he’s a wanker
Abbott is using a condolence motion to spruik his government’s supposed achievements. Always classy.
In a chess game:
Abbott has lost his queen, two knights, a bishop, a rook and four pawns
Turnbull has lost a knight, a bishop and two pawns
Any seasoned chess player would have long resigned
To Shorten’s delight, Abbott wants to play out the brutal end-game
We the party have decided. We endorse Abbott, we will not be reversing policies, we will just say that we have. You the public have shown how stupid you are by getting the vote so horribly wrong the the election that cannot be named. We arer the only party that was born to rule. Repeat after me, Liberal good, Labor bad. Liberal good, Labor bad, Liberal Go……..
*in*
Shorten was all class with his condolence speech.
Shorten was magnificent in his reply to the Martin Place Siege motion. Truly moving.
Shorten was magnificent in his reply to the Martin Place Siege motion. Truly moving.
[Actually, according to the Mythbusters, you CAN polish a turd.]
I prefer the lines, which I think apply best to abbott and the libs
1. (possibly steven fry from Absolute Power?) You can’t polish a turd, but you can give it a very nice sheen
and
2. (not sure where from – just a new york saying perhaps) you can’t polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter
When Abbott loses, I reckon that a third of the party will grab their guns and ammo, and head of the hills, determined to fight a guerrilla campaign and never surrender. Instead of Red Dawn, they can call it Blue Dawn.
[Gary
Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 11:02 am | PERMALINK
Anyways it’s a good day… the sun is shining.. the birds are singing and Abbott is still PM.
I have to agree TBA. It’s a great day for Labor.]
Gary
Before I noticed your reference to TBA I genuinely thought the quote was from one of the Laborites on PB.
Apparently TBA doesn’t even realise that this is the best possible outcome for Labor.
Kevin 17,
The deal done with Telstra is essentially a bolt on to the original deal (that’s how Telstra justified not going to their shareholders for approval).
The deal includes all the arrangements necessary for rolling out fibre. Indeed NBNco today could just as easily build fibre as it always has.
And for that matter, if and when the Liberals are voted out, construction of fibre could recommence without any new deal being done.
What needs to be done now is a campaign to show people how the rest of the world is now almost without exception building fibre. And when some real customers start using FTTN there needs to be a campaign showing those users how they are being made second class to the users who have fibre.
Thanks to Labor we will have over a million addresses with fibre available and some hundreds of thousands of fibre users. Their stories will count. And their will be many more people using fibre than using copper to the node come the election date.
Alias, in that situation I would say Abbott is about to get mated in the middle game, there will be no endgame. I am not sure Turnbull will ever get the numbers to replace Abbott, they need someone else to unite the anti-Abbott majority of the party.
I was surprised how Abbott used the condolence motion to spruik his credentials. It was a condolence motion, not a national security plug.
I might b biased but shorten’s speech was good, Abbott’s not so much
I think this is called doing a Jim Hacker
[
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 4 mins 4 minutes ago
Do not discount Julie Bishop coming through the middle…
]
https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP
Tanya Plibersek, after Bill Shorten, had me in tears.
Kennett on 24
[When Abbott loses, I reckon that a third of the party will grab their guns and ammo, and head of the hills, determined to fight a guerrilla campaign and never surrender. Instead of Red Dawn, they can call it Blue Dawn.]
What if those members gather around a different right winger, leaving only the moderates disenfranchised? Red dawn? 🙂
Kennett has been drinking surely. An overwhelming win to Abbott?
Listening to Kennett and other Liberals. Incredible.
Obviously desperate to give Abbott as much clear air as possible in order to recover, even though it is almost hopeless.
At the moment though the MSM are not playing along. Groupthink again would be not to look stupid when history replays and Abbott loses next time.
Kennett is showing he is no independent commentator
Helen S
[Abbott is using a condolence motion to spruik his government’s supposed achievements. Always classy.]
He never fails to sink lower when given a platform. It’s always about him (theme song).
Cud
Indeed. There are a lot of people in the Liberal Party that actually approve of Abbott’s broad thrust of policy (hence all the commentary about needing to improve the message, not change the policy).
If those votes coalesce behind someone there could be a Prime Minister Bradbury.
Headline on news.com.au is “The Walking Dead”, with a photo of Abbott and his colleagues walking into the party room. Classic.
cud chewer
[The deal includes all the arrangements necessary for rolling out fibre. Indeed NBNco today could just as easily build fibre as it always has.]
That’s good to know.
TrueBlueTosser
[Evidence that disunity is death.
Anyways it’s a good day… the sun is shining.. the birds are singing and Abbott is still PM. 🙂 ]
I don’t know what planet you’re on, but tell ’em Earth says Hi.
“@MayneReport: Barrie Cassidy just slapped down Kennett analysis and is now suggesting Turnbull has the numbers and there could be a challenge this week.”
PVO, Peter Reith and Chris Kenny have not gilded the lily. They dont believe this was a good result for Abbott
Good grief. Apparently the co payment is still on the table. Can they make up their bloody mind!
[Barrie Cassidy just slapped down Kennett analysis and is now suggesting Turnbull has the numbers and there could be a challenge this week.]
No, not going to happen. I think this buys Abbott at least until the end of June, unfortunately.
ABC News putting the best possible spin on this. Imagine if the situation was reversed. The opposition says….
CUD – Thanks for that. A mate of mine commented that with the sudden proliferation of streaming services a lot of people are suddenly going to realise what a crap connection they’ve got. That might count.
Good grief. Apparently the co payment is still on the table. Can they make up their bloody mind!
Ever considered the fact that this was yet another “Captain’s Call” by Abbott in the Party room not authorised by the right wingers? In keeping with the Abbott/Credlin modus operandi.
Tom.
victoria
It seems that Simpkins overstretched the truth a little when he said it was gone. I think he may stay on the back bench for a long time. 😉
Sir Cyril
And a headline on Abbott leaving the party room would be “The grateful dead”
[No, not going to happen. I think this buys Abbott at least until the end of June, unfortunately.]
As a Labor supporter that suits me fine. Four more months of damage to the liberal brand.
Great photo of Abbott in the House just now. With all his supporters lol
https://twitter.com/ellinghausen/status/564582538463551488
It seems that the new mantra is “let’s move on”.
His supporters keep saying “he’s heard”. But how many times does he have to “hear” before he does anything different. IMV he will never change.
[
And a headline on Abbott leaving the party room would be “The grateful dead”
]
lol
I think that qualifies as a zinger rossmcg.
The Advertiser headline is
[61-39 A Vote of No Confidence]
If Murdoch papers aren’t buying it, I doubt he will last to June.
lizzie
We already know. Just look at how he ducked having a presser.
I suppose Joe has retired to have a celebratory cigar.
lizzie
[
It seems that Simpkins overstretched the truth a little when he said it was gone]
More likely Abbott did his usual .Told one audience what they wanted to hear then says the opposite to a different audience.