The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.
Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.
Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.
UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.
lizzie
[
It seems that Simpkins overstretched the truth a little when he said it was gone]
More likely Abbott did his usual .Told one audience what they wanted to hear then says the opposite to a different audience.
[Imagine if the situation was reversed. The opposition says….]
What is the Labor opposition saying? If it’s not loud and nasty then it won’t get heard on a day like this. Abbott was good at making nasty often sexist comments about Gillard’s leadership when she was the story of the day. I’m thankful that Labor don’t resort to low level crusing along the gutter.
Sir Mad Cyril
Just loved the photo of Abbott sitting all alone in the Parliament where were all his besties?
poroti
It seems that poor Abbott is misunderstood at every turn. We never hear what he is really saying. Must be because we’re sleepwalking, being Labor. :sigh:
Don’t ya think Hockey looked sad/grumpy?
If one MP was so confused they made an informal vote . . . no wonder they need a Whip to guide them in parliament (or Peta outside).
[
TrueBlueAussie
Posted Monday, February 9, 2015 at 10:48 am | Permalink
…
Fairfax and ABC Regime Change has failed and I am grinning ear to ear. 🙂
]
Not often you have the Labor party and the liberal mad right happy about the same thing.
Tom @ 602
[I’m thankful that Labor don’t resort to low level crusing along the gutter.]
Not only good conduct but good politics. I’ve been saying for some time that Labor’s strategy is to present as moving on from the seething, angry, confrontational, ridiculously hyperbolic conduct of Abbott as Opposition Leader and then as PM.
It worked for Annastacia Palaszczuk in Queensland and Daniel Andrews in Victoria. The more the Coalition behaves like they cannot let go of the 2010-2013 theatre, the more the low key approach of Labor works.
For the same reason, simply voting Liberals out will not work. They do have to come up with policies – even some policies that have a bit of pain. It will be a contrast point. There is some risk, but all politics is risk. Abbott’s obsession with minimising risk has resulted in a Coalition Government which is not only incredibly bad but is seen far and wide by anyone who is not a rusted on Liberal supporter as incredibly dishonest.
People talk about Stephen Bradbury. Bradbury was a very good skater. He made into an Olympic final, which is a great feat in its own right. He then navigated his way through all the fallen competitors to make it across the line first. He worked hard for his Gold medal. Labor will have to do the same. It is no put-down to compare Shorten and Labor to him.
I see that the commentariat is making hard work of what is basically a very straight forward process:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjEcj8KpuJw
lizzie at 606
[If one MP was so confused they made an informal vote ]
… not necessarily confused.
Oh Briggs… Tony Abbott is not, and never will be John Howard.
@610 – that one vote that stopped it hitting 40
“Mr Abbott went on to say, ‘This government is now terminally dysfunctional and this situation has to be resolved as quickly as possible for the benefit of our country.'”
Mr Ruddock suggested that the informal vote had been a deliberate informal vote. It may have had something written on it to the effect of ‘Eff the lot of yuz!’
But was it an accident? Is it possible that the ballot required Mr Hockey to count to one?
TPOF,
Correct. Labor is going to work very very hard to win in 2016. And especially because of the media.
There’s a couple of things I want to see them get right and that they have to start working on today.
One is to dispel the myths about debt and deficit. They need to get this happening long before they bring out substantive policies.
Two is they need to get people to understand what a tragedy the MTM is. Tens of billions wasted on a temporary network. They need to start by making people aware of how the rest of the world is moving to fibre. Again, all of this needs to happen right now.
No wonder the little Billson was trotting beside Tony as they left.
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott promised a second tax cut for small business, pledged the budget would put more money in families’ pockets and asked his MPs to stop leaking to the media during his post-spill speech in the Liberal party room.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/inside-the-party-room–tony-abbott-promises-a-second-tax-cut-for-small-business-20150209-139hma.html
“‘the instability at the top of this government is damaging our country,’ Mr Abbott said. ‘This government is unworthy to continue in office.'”
TPOF
Actually Bradbury was an even better skater than you make out. He was favourite to win a medal a couple of Olympics previously but was hideously injured in a freak accident.
(Seriously, if Bradbury hadn’t happened to crash into the hoardings next to the Canadian team doctor, who immediately tied off the cut artery in his leg, Bradbury could have bleed to death.)
Fate repayed him by giving him an easy victory later on.
I wasn’t suggesting Shorten as the Bradbury type PM.
I meant an unexpected Liberal. There’s a huge block of far-right votes that won’t vote for Turnbull and if Abbott doesn’t stand I don’t know who gets them.
poroti @ 601
[More likely Abbott did his usual .Told one audience what they wanted to hear then says the opposite to a different audience.]
This appears to almost certainly be the case with the question of the submarine contract. Latest is that Abbott promised to pretend to consider an ASC role (in the evaluation of what to do about a submarine contract) as opposed to not bothering with a facade.
And the voters of South Australia have shown in recent months how easily duped by Abbott they can be ….. not.
Boer,
I’m hoping the informal vote was a tribute to the last leadership spill and read “NO” 🙂
[Bradbury was a very good skater. He made into an Olympic final]
He would not have qualified for the final if skaters had not fallen over in the semi as well
TPOF,
I listened to Abbott being asked about the submarine contract on ABC last night. He backed away from the suggestion of a competitive tender and merely talked about being considered.
Another rigged “expert” report?
cud chewer@620
My guess is that it was the same person. But “NO” wouldn’t cut it this time: it would be a formal vote.
shellbell
But not falling over is kinda compulsory.
[Bradbury was a very good skater. He made into an Olympic final
He would not have qualified for the final if skaters had not fallen over in the semi as well]
Since not falling over is a required skill, I don’t understand your point.
RA @ 618
I was not referring to anything you posted. And any accidental Liberal PM will not have won the equivalent of an olympic gold medal.
Abbott won the last election despite his leadership, not because of it. And he won today because the status of having led the Coalition to government is a unifying factor – with him gone, policy and personal battles will be unbridled.
624
That is my attitude to the Bradbury win as well.
I suggested it was “none of the above”, I was almost right
[
Latika Bourke retweeted
Andrew Probyn @andrewprobyn · 18 mins 18 minutes ago
Informal vote in #libspill simply had “PASS” written on it. In capitals. Ballot papers were blank. MPs and senators asked to write Yes or No
]
LOL, True Blue doesn’t realise today’s outcome was a victory for Shorten.
cc @ 622
Exactly
I suspect a challenge a month either side of the budget is unlikely. Even if they don’t want to change the overall framework, a challenger will want to differentiate themselves from the Abbott/Hockey regime, so why choose a time when it is so hard to either change the budget, or to distance themselves from it?
So we have early March as next opportunity, and then late June.
Couldn’t disagree more TPOF. These are perfect circumstances for Labor to get on the front foot for a change, to occupy the vacuum that the leadershit crisis creates. It doesn’t mean being nasty or overly aggressive, just reminding voters what a shambles the coalition is, and that Labor offers a viable alternative.
Already you can see that the attempted fix is in and where the hell is Labor? Invisibility is just not good enough.
[Since not falling over is a required skill, I don’t understand your point.]
As was commented at the time, deliberately hanging off the back of the pack to avoid carnage is a legitimate tactic; hanging off the back of the pack because you can’t actually keep up with them not so much.
{But yes, obviously he was good to be there in the first place.}
Bradbury’s strategy for both the semi and final was to stay at the back because he knew he was the slowest hoping those into front would go base over apex
13 – unlucky for some, lucky for Abbott
[ So we have early March as next opportunity, and then late June. ]
Agreed. but i would say late June more likely.
Baird is just going to have to suck it up and take the hit of having Tony in NSW during the election. Its his home state and cant be avoided unless there is some kind of “study trip” in the offing. 🙂
Not that NSW Libs are in enough trouble for it to matter. They will win in March.
shellbell
Bradbury had superior tactical thinking then
TPOF,
Its the strength and unity of Liberal policies that is the reason why people are coming to understand said policies are wrong and unfair.
Policy disharmony (without Abbott) would in a way be a good thing, but it also allows people to believe what they want to believe and to think that “they can’t be all that bad/it’ll be ok for me”.
[Bradbury had superior tactical thinking then]
Bradbury supplied the others with their skates…
631
I would think that, depending on the New South Wales election result, the next challenge could be at the very end of March or early April. If the NSW Coalition do badly, Abbott will be blamed and could well get spilled soon afterwards.
Of course if Abbott sees a successful challenge coming he may well call an election to delay the inevitable.
Tom,
Don’t you think though that they’d be waiting for the reaction to the budget?
While Hockey is Treasurer we know what to expect. As a result disastrous polls for the LNP
“My question today is to the Prime Minister. Given one third of her Parliamentary colleagues have today expressed a lack of confidence in her, how can she claim to have a mandate to continue as Prime Minister?”
Tony Abbott February 2012. On the day Gillard won a ballot 71 -13
AA
Which failed mathematics major worked that one out 😉
641
Not if the Coalition do too badly, compared to what is expected, in NSW.
The ALP could get on the policy front foot with some deadset winner: eg NBN, a decent childcare package of their won.
Set the agenda.
I think the next challenge will be in November the traditional leader deposing period.
Lizzie
Just further evidence on why they can’t get the budget right. Abbott can’t do numbers and Hockey believes eleventy is a number
[ The ALP could get on the policy front foot with some deadset winner: eg NBN, a decent childcare package of their won. ]
They can talk in a general way, but they will wait until the Libs have solidified their positions for 2015 at the Budget before putting out policy. Let the Libs nail themselves into position first, then bash them.
[The ALP could get on the policy front foot with some deadset winner: eg NBN, a decent childcare package of their won.
Set the agenda.]
Yes, ordinarily you would think that they wouldn’t need to start laying down policy markers until towards the end of this year. But with a leadership change likely in the Libs before then it may be prudent to bring that forward somewhat.