Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 21
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  1. Adrian @ 632

    [just reminding voters what a shambles the coalition is, and that Labor offers a viable alternative]

    Voters are already aware of what a shambles the coalition is. To the extent they are thinking of Labor as a viable alternative, Shorten’s high ratings as preferred PM indicate that the voters are actively thinking of Labor.

    The critical point is that there will not be an election until the second half of next year. Even under a new leader it would be suicidal for the Government to go earlier unless the polls suddenly turned upside down. There simply is no value in distracting attention from the Government screwing up.

  5. [Yes, ordinarily you would think that they wouldn’t need to start laying down policy markers until towards the end of this year. But with a leadership change likely in the Libs before then it may be prudent to bring that forward somewhat.]

    Agree. Obviously I mean in a few weeks – let the media feast on the massive LNP disunity first! 🙂

  6. [618
    Rates Analyst

    There’s a huge block of far-right votes that won’t vote for Turnbull…]

    The conventional wisdom is that this is the first round and that Turnbull will win sooner or later – that Abbott’s defeat is just a matter of time. But maybe this is as good as it gets for the centrist/revisionist elements in the Liberal Party.

    The Liberals have lost two State Governments and an important by-election, the polls are as bad as they have ever been and the PM has a net-sat @ -44. Even so, the right seem unable to relinquish anything, even such a relatively small token as the Medicare co-payment, let alone their core power within the Government.

    The Liberals badly need to adopt a revisionist strategy if they are to have any chance of winning the next election. Yet the one person who might be able to revive their electoral standing, Turnbull, is anathema both to the right wing and to the Liberal rank-and-file. Were he to re-take the leadership, the white-anting would start almost immediately.

    Considering the right are most unlikely to eschew their primary values (think how slow the left are to modify their views) the Liberal Party is going to have to find a way to expunge them.

    Back in the day, while groups like the IPA certainly existed, they were never given a prominent place inside the Liberal Party. These days, it’s fair to describe the Liberal Party as an intellectual and political subsidiary of the IPA and its plutocratic and corporate sponsors. This will have to change.

    As well, we should take account of Abbott’s basic political method, which is to invariably oppose Labor. This is partisan politics at its most reflexive and thoughtless. While it worked for Abbott from Opposition, it has also meant that the fortunes of Abbott and the IPA-right have become mutually reinforcing. They now need each other. Abbott cannot break with the right and nor can they abandon him.

    It follows that if the Liberals eventually dispose of Abbott, it will also mean they have decided to suppress the right. They must know that if they do not do this themselves, then the electorate will do it for them. Can the Liberals reform from within? Will they split? Will the right, who now hold all the key positions in the party, hold out?

  7. “@SkyNewsAust: Palaszczuk: I will be calling on the QLD Governor in next 48 hours with the intention to form government. #qldvotes”

  8. CC @ 638

    [Its the strength and unity of Liberal policies that is the reason why people are coming to understand said policies are wrong and unfair.]

    I can’t agree there. People are coming to understand they are wrong and unfair because they are, for many people, wrong and unfair. The Coalition’s immediate polling after the 2014 budget was almost as bad now, and was only turned around by Abbott’s aggressive position on MH17. If the Coalition becomes less strong and unified as to its policy, it will be easier to pick off the extreme measures as typical, plus the bonus of a confused party that does not even know what its policy is but still knows what it wants.

  10. [“@SkyNewsAust: Palaszczuk: I will be calling on the QLD Governor in next 48 hours with the intention to form government. #qldvotes”]

    Good. Put that idiot Borg in his place. What a silly loser!

  11. LEFTY – Everybody talks about Labor’s policies. They can almost go to the next election with those from the last election – closing super loopholes – closing down car leasing rorts – NBN – carbon pricing, etc etc.

  12. imacca @ 649

    [They can talk in a general way, but they will wait until the Libs have solidified their positions for 2015 at the Budget before putting out policy. Let the Libs nail themselves into position first, then bash them.]

    That is exactly what I’m trying to say.

    I’m reminded that one of the favourite tricks of this government is to let Labor build up a head of steam criticising something or the other and then announce just before Question Time that they are doing something different – and then go on about how Labor is behind.

    I don’t know if it works, but in a QT where the Opposition has almost no opportunity to criticise and where the Government gets 4 minutes per question to rave on and on with focus group talking points there is not much upside in QT these days.

  15. Murdoch issues his *instructions* to Australia –

    [ Rupert Murdoch ✔ @rupertmurdoch
    Follow

    Abbott survives 61-39. Now needs to say he understands complaints and will govern more inclusively, both with public and his party. ]

    …

    [ Rupert Murdoch ✔ @rupertmurdoch
    Follow

    LNP govt failed to tell country about dire state of economy. Gillard left manufacturing impossible, then commodities collapsed. ]

    …

    [ Rupert Murdoch ✔ @rupertmurdoch
    Follow

    Any AUST govt faces absolute necessity for tough change. Change could bring poisoned chalice ]

  16. TPOF

    [there is not much upside in QT these days]

    I agree. It’s pretty useless, even ignoring the attitude of the Speaker, wo makes sure that Labor can’t make any points.

  20. briefly

    But what if the IPA decide to ditch Abbott and chose a new spokesperson?

    Let’s say Abbott gets rolled in a future Spill motion and decides not to contest the leadership.

    A solid right-wing candidate would be able to immediately take a large number of his votes and might even be able to woo back some of Turnbull’s support if that support was really only for a “non-Abbott” candidate.

    I just go back to the vote that put Abbott in as LOTO. There is a large block of votes that actually supports Abbott’s policies. Those votes might go to Turnbull for electability reasons, but might easily be swayed to a different candidate also.

  21. [Voters are already aware of what a shambles the coalition is. To the extent they are thinking of Labor as a viable alternative, Shorten’s high ratings as preferred PM indicate that the voters are actively thinking of Labor.]

    To an extent, but now that this will be spun as a victory to Abbott, he’s finally learned from his mistakes etc etc, invisibility is not an option for Labor. Mind you, I’m not sure if this invisibility is due to Labor or the MSM. I know that when the situations were reversed the coalition was all over the media. Labor needs to be visible, but not in the same way.

  25. briefly

    [As well, we should take account of Abbott’s basic political method, which is to invariably oppose Labor.]

    This isn’t confined to Abbott. Liberal MP after Liberal MP has trotted out wtte that they need to get the focus off themselves and back on to Labor.

    The good governance of the country seems to be way down the list.

  26. Interesting – Murdoch is not calling off his dogs

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/tony-abbott-defeated-the-spill-motion-but-he-will-still-struggle-to-survive/story-fni0xqrb-1227212864241

    I imagine they’ll work to get up a far right alternative to turnbull.

    Bolta going nutso about turnbull is worth a look – blaming turnbull for the abbott government is akin to blaming someone in the boiler room for the titanic’s steering (although to be fair, with the NBN, Turnbull is more comparable to the bloke who decided the titanic didn’t need as many lifeboat seats as there were passengers).

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/andrew-bolt-on-liberal-leadership-turnbull-really-trashed-the-place/story-fni0fit3-1227213047311

  28. Adrian @ 671

    [To an extent, but now that this will be spun as a victory to Abbott, he’s finally learned from his mistakes etc etc, invisibility is not an option for Labor.]

    Given how many unforced errors Abbott has managed to make as PM, what are the chances that he will suddenly become Mr Sensible? Especially as it has now been driven home to him how much support he has lost in the party room? And how the MSM are on gaffe-watch?

    The MSM are not interested in policy while there is a juicy leadersh1t crisis happening. Never have been, never will be. They much prefer to be on the Labor side, but if Labor are not producing the copy, any political party will do – even the Greens.

    There is one moment in the ordinary political year when the MSM does actually pay attention to the LOTO and reports what he has to say – the Budget address in reply. This is when Shorten should start laying out a powerful argument to elect Labor and not just dump the Liberals. Until then, anything policy-wise he can say will only be analysed for the gaffes or the dad jokes. Dad jokes at least are innocuous.

  29. Surprisingly, all the people I have spoken to today believe that the coalition will lose the next election whatever happens.

  32. [Rupert Murdoch ✔ @rupertmurdoch
    Follow

    LNP govt failed to tell country about dire state of economy. Gillard left manufacturing impossible, then commodities collapsed.]

    Murdoch is an idiot. Aside from Abbot being guilty of serially talking down the economy, manufacturing was made more difficult by a high $A, which – plot twist – was being pushed higher by commodity prices.

    He really should STFU.

  34. [This isn’t confined to Abbott. Liberal MP after Liberal MP has trotted out wtte that they need to get the focus off themselves and back on to Labor.]

    Ahh so this is why so many journos have been giving Labor a hard time their lib buddies are asking them to. Labor isn’t the government.

    If the Libs want the focus on Labor perhaps shorten should propose a series of televised 1 he TV debates: the economy, Education, Health, infrastructure and demographics.

    If he can’t win a series of debates he doesn’t deserve to be PM.

  35. Bravo.

    [What Australia needs is a contest of ideas – a long one, with an uncertain outcome.

    As the nation gradually faces up to this, journalists do not serve the public interest when they behave as if good policies can be written overnight or instantly judged. Instead, they could spend more time explaining and testing ideas and their proponents from different angles to see if they stand up to scrutiny.

    The race is to articulate a convincing agenda for smart, inclusive growth: a version of economic prosperity that works within the ecological constraints discovered by science, and includes every person in its reach.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/09/abbotts-legacy-is-a-hairball-in-the-throat-of-the-body-politic-can-turnbull-dislodge-it?CMP=soc_568

  37. Jay Weatherill is certainly seizing he moment to be crazy brave.

    He’s axing the Repat Hospital in a major health system review, talking of introducing EST to South Australia and now is proposing a royal commission to examine the pros and cons of nuclear energy. Wow!

    He’s no lame duck premier running a tired fourth-term government. It might even work.

  38. [just hear someone on ABC radio saying some lib claimed abbott in the partyroom today was “The tony of old. ‘Unchoreographed’, natural, himself, blah blah.”]

    So the ‘real’ Tony has emerged!

  39. [670
    Rates Analyst

    There is a large block of votes that actually supports Abbott’s policies.]

    I agree. The power struggle inside Liberalism is not primarily about personalities. It is about ideology, political practice and strategy.

    The division – now brought into the open – should focus public attention on the ideological composition of the Liberals and hopefully will lead to a revisionist/centrist revival, though the right will resist this all the way.

  45. Sir Mad Cyril@628

    I suggested it was “none of the above”, I was almost right

    Latika Bourke retweeted
    Andrew Probyn @andrewprobyn · 18 mins 18 minutes ago
    Informal vote in #libspill simply had “PASS” written on it. In capitals. Ballot papers were blank. MPs and senators asked to write Yes or No

    I wonder if these papers were disposed of.

    Or would someone go through them and tried analysis the handwriting to see who voted yes or no.

  46. J341983

    I am expecting them to grill the coalition as to their current policy positions re medicare and uni reforms in particular

  47. I’m surprised I havent seen this quote before:

    [REPORTER: “The condition of the budget will not be an excuse for breaking promises?”

    TONY ABBOTT: “Exactly right. We will keep the commitments that we make. All of the commitments that we make will be commitments that are carefully costed.”

    –Joint press conference, Colo Heights, NSW, 13 August 2013]

    http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog/russell-marks/2014/05/27/1401138538/tony-abbott-said#prom

  48. 675
    zoomster

    Yes, they are all drilled in the “Labor, Bad!” chorus.

    Of course, in the end it cuts the other way too. When Labor’s popularity is rising, as it is at the moment, every time a Liberal sets out to distinguish themselves from Labor, they are reminding voters not to vote Liberal. Their messages can easily turn into voter-repellants.

  50. I did not see Hockey in the post-vote parade this morning? He was not walking with Abbott. Does anyone know if he was there?

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