Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor

Newspoll matches Galaxy in the scale of the disaster for the Coalition, and exceeds anything seen previously with respect to Tony Abbott’s personal ratings.

The eagerly awaited pre-spill Newspoll concurs with Galaxy in having Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, from primary votes of 35% for the Coalition, 41% for Labor and 12% for the Greens. The Coalition result is down three points on the last Newspoll of December 12-14, and one point lower than Galaxy; Labor’s is up two, and two points lower than Galaxy; and the Greens’ is steady, and one point higher than Galaxy. The previous Newspoll result was 54-46 on two-party preferred. Phillip Hudson’s paywalled report on the Newspoll result in The Australian can be read here; the tables are featured on The Australian’s website here.

Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are 24% satisfied and 68% dissatisfied, for a net satisfaction rating of minus 44%. In a history going back to 1985, the only occasions when Newspoll produced a worse result for a Prime Minister were when Julia Gillard recorded minus 45% in the poll of September 2-4, 2011, and in four polls under Paul Keating from August to October in 1993. Alexander Downer had two worse results as Opposition Leader near the end of his tenure in December 1994, and Andrew Peacock matched it in a poll conducted during the 1990 election campaign. Bill Shorten leads Abbott as preferred prime minister by 48-30, up from 44-37 last time, a result surpassed only by a 20% lead for Alexander Downer over Paul Keating during the former’s short-lived honeymoon period in July 1994. Shorten is up five on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 40%.

Head-to-head questions on the Liberal leadership find Malcolm Turnbull favoured over Abbott by 64-25 and Julie Bishop favoured 59-27, while Turnbull is favoured over Bishop by 49-38. The poll was conducted from Friday to today from a sample of 1178.

UPDATE: To follow today’s action as it unfolds, you could do quite a lot worse than to tune in to Crikey’s Liberal leadership spill live blog.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,041 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 21
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  7. [Abbott to do a presser shortly. He could do everyone a bloody favour and resign]

    yer dreamin’

    I think today’s result was close to perfect (although I would have like to see the spill ‘yes’ vote closer to bu not quite 50%). abbott survives. the party bleeds.

    will abbott be announcing a reshuffle? turnbull to treasurer or to backbench? I doubt it – hockey would blow up the government if dumped. They have a mexican standoff – all pointing guns at each other saying they’ll shoot if they shoot. And as Max Smart would say “In situations like this it only takes one wiseguy” (No youtube unfortunately).

    You reap what ye sow – and the party that has spent the last 2 decades recruiting hard right, unempathetic, bigotted, arseholes is getting all it deserves.

  9. guytaur

    Abbott is talking the talk. I dont believe a word he says. All i know is that he will say and doing anything to save his own job

  11. Turnbull has to wear part of the blame for today’s debacle. Looks like he probably had the numbers, but lost his bottle. On the next go-round for the Lib leadership, Bishop or Morrison may well get up.

  13. @708 – not understanding that how he treats his colleagues actually doesn’t matter to the rest of us. There’s no sign that the policies were WRONG, just that they were too ‘ambitious’ or not properly explained. No, Prime Minister, they understood the policies perfectly well.

  26. Interesting changes in Federal election odds

    This morning – Coalition $1-65 Labor $2-00

    Now – Coalition $1-85 Labor $1-85

    Earlier odds obviously factoring in better chance for Colaition if Abbott gone

    Also – Abbott to face (another) leadership ballot before next election

    Yes $1-25 No $3-75

  27. surely the media can not give Abott a free ride on this; time for some critical analysis instead of bias. S’pose I’m expecting a bit much

  31. “@MayneReport: Giving absolutely no ground whatsoever on Credlin and Hockey could very well be the trigger that either Bishop or Turnbull use to launch.”

  32. [Turnbull has to wear part of the blame for today’s debacle. Looks like he probably had the numbers, but lost his bottle. On the next go-round for the Lib leadership, Bishop or Morrison may well get up.]

    This has to be incorrect – of the 39 at least three would never support Turnbull – it is good news the libs are too far skewed to the right to have a superficially appealing centralist lead them. John Howard might be too left for this party room.

  34. [713
    J341983

    @708 – not understanding that how he treats his colleagues actually doesn’t matter to the rest of us. There’s no sign that the policies were WRONG, just that they were too ‘ambitious’ or not properly explained. No, Prime Minister, they understood the policies perfectly well.]

    The right remain in control.

  35. Abbott declaring he’s going to be more consultative, and that he’s going to do that by listening to and involving his MPs more, misses the point.

    60% of his MPs are happy with him (well….). It’s the public who has the problem.

  36. One of the breaking news banners on abc24 was hilarious. It only quoted part of Abbott’s sentence, so it roughly read: “My government believes in the marrow of their bones.” And nothing more.

    Well, that’s handy 😆

  37. That last question in Abbott’s presser asked if he still had confidence in his Treasurer. I don’t believe Abbott answered the question – or did I miss something?

  38. “@amapresident: PM needs to end the uncertainty for GPs & patients over #copayment II by taking the proposed rebate cut & indexation off the table #auspol”

  39. WWP

    [This has to be incorrect – of the 39 at least three would never support Turnbull – it is good news the libs are too far skewed to the right to have a superficially appealing centralist lead them. ]

    The entire frontbench had their hands tied; they were press-ganged en masse into opposing the spill. So the 61-39 certainly overstates Abbott’s support. Even if a few backbenchers wouldn’t have voted for Turnbull, a huge chunk of the frontbench might have.

  41. [I still yhink the whole thing is a big f’ing set-up, a charade.]

    I agree it’s a chance. What legislation or changes to regulation have they got up their sleeves?

  42. I’ve seen some people ask what’s the big deal with Abbott winning 61 to 39 against a spill, saying there’s twice as many still in support.

    Considering 40 did not vote yes, all it takes is just 12 from the “no” camp to move into the “yes” camp for a spill.

  43. briefly
    [But maybe this is as good as it gets for the centrist/revisionist elements in the Liberal Party.]

    Maybe.

    It reminds me of the Keyser Soze story….where the one that succeeds is the one prepared to do the meanest deeds to get it. The far right will happily tear the Liberal party apart rather than let Turbull take control. IMO some would have joined with the Nationals (and ALP) and go for a no confidence motion. They would certainly have threatened it over the weekend.

    How hard will the centrists push for control?

    The meek will not inherit the Coalition.

    The far right may compromise for another however. Robb? Scoots?

  44. @ 730

    Wow. Now we get to have our own localised version of Huffington Post’s celebrity gossip and misleading headlines.

    I’m going to apply for a job. I could easily pull their sort of trick.

    For example:

    “Bishop announces challenge is on!!!”…

    Then you click the link, and find:

    “The Archbishop of Sydney has announced that the Sydney Catholic Writing Challenge 2015 is now open for entrants”.

  45. [The entire frontbench had their hands tied;]

    I don’t think this is true – the 60 maybe over inflated because there was no challenger but that doesn’t mean Turnbull had the numbers.

  46. [“Bishop announces challenge is on!!!”…

    Then you click the link, and find:

    “The Archbishop of Sydney has announced that the Sydney Catholic Writing Challenge 2015 is now open for entrants”.]

    The SMH already do it. I’m of half a mind to set up an “SMH Spoilers” twitter account, but really couldn’t be bothered.

  48. [ The far right may compromise for another however. Robb? Scoots? ]

    Not Robb. But Morrison? Yup.

    Hard Manly Man to continue their current agenda, and Bishop as Deputy to placate the moderates.

    You know it makes sense. 🙂 Continue their oh so popular policy direction set in 2014 with some new spending thrown in and thats all JoHo’s problem anyway. Budget Emergency?? Hah, thats all the ALP’s fault as they say again and again and again…….

  49. 61 – 39

    Assuming cabinet solidarity, (33 votes) that leaves back bench support at 28 – 39.

    I was thinking 50 – 51 would have been a nice result, with Abbott lamenting the absence of his BFF, Slippery Pete, but all things considered this is better.

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