This week’s BludgerTrack reading goes a fair way towards illustrating what all the fuss is about in federal politics just at the moment, following the addition of new numbers from Galaxy, Ipsos and Essential Research (albeit that the latter was actually something of a dampener). Compared with last week’s reading, shifts of approaching 2% have been recorded for the two major parties on both the two-party and primary vote. Even Palmer United, which had fallen below 2% for a while there, seems to have lifted itself off the canvas as voters desert the Coalition every which way. No fewer than nine seats are recorded as switching from the Coalition column to Labor since last week’s result, including two each in Victoria and Western Australia, one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, and – interestingly enough – three in Queensland. There is presently not a single seat in Brisbane where the model rates the Coalition win probability at higher than 31%.
Ipsos and Galaxy also provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, albeit that the latter only did so for preferred prime minister. Sharp as the drop on Tony Abbott’s net approval has been, his present reading of minus 27.6% is a lot more flattering than the numbers produced by Ipsos, suggesting he has a good way further to fall next week. Because the model has two sets of numbers to work with on preferred prime minister rather than one, its reading has nearly caught up with the Ipsos and Galaxy results, putting Bill Shorten nearly as far ahead as Tony Abbott was immediately after the election.
Lizzie
Somehow I can’t see the Nats walking. Barnaby Joyce a man of principle?
Bowen presser now
A letter from Newman 🙂 Would be similar to Tones’ one.
[Queensland Election 2015: A final letter from Newman?
Dear Voter,
…………….That’s the thing that gets to me with this result; the absolute lack of gratitude for what I did for this state and for each of you
The media………….Belligerent and hostile and unintelligent, except for a couple who did exactly what I asked. They knew a strong leader when they saw one. Me.
But through your folly I’m no longer able to regulate the media. Another loss for Queensland………….
So dear voter, you reap what you sow. But remember I warned you. You chose the weak path, when I was offering a strong Queensland, with a strong leader.
And I was doing that despite a clueless team, a clueless community where doctors and lawyers and judges and even some charities thought they knew better.]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/queensland-election-2015-a-final-letter-from-newman-20150204-136d3r.html
This is a major attack
guytaur
Bowen sounds serious alright.
Rates Analyst
True. That’s a refinement and improvement on my definition.
So that leaves Menzies, Gorton, Hawk and Gillard since the war?
HawkE
“This is a major attack”????
[this is a major attack]
details please
TH
Underming Independence of RBA by treasurer.
Breaking the law on release of intergenerational report.
Thee was another one that I have a short term memory lapse
Ah that’s it. No budget date for achieving surplus so what budget emergency
“@ABCNews24: .@Bowenchris: Joe Hockey will never deliver a budget surplus, despite his rhetoric when in opposition #auspol #ABCNews24”
Tom Hawkins
Bowen attacking Joe over this. Saying Joe has “placed himself above the law” by not complying.
[Treasurer Joe Hockey has breached the Charter of Budget Honesty by failing to publish the latest Intergenerational Report on time.]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-breaches-charter-of-budget-honesty-20150204-1367g7.html
DTT 149,
If you seriously think climate change is no longer an issue or that the electorate don’t care about the consistency of character of the PM you are very mistaken.
@nickharmsen: BREAKING: SA Govt considering shifting SA’s Timezone to match Eastern seaboard or WA #saparli @abcnewsSA http://t.co/e3fXFqhW7M
Even if Labor supported all Hockey’s cuts, it wouldn’t fix the deficit. Labor will not support unfair budget. Also lying to the Australian voters before the election. Labor will bring out their own plans in 2015. Some will not be popular.
Thanks poroti and guytaur
[What Labor/left/progressive must NOW deal with is that Turnbull is probably PM.]
I don’t think so. Not in the next few months at least.
[@nickharmsen: BREAKING: SA Govt considering shifting SA’s Timezone to match Eastern seaboard or WA #saparli @abcnewsSA]
Good idea but unquestionably it should be EST as the bulk of crow eaters are closest to Vic and NSW towns and cities
Menzies lost the 1946 election as Opposition Leader. He won his next seven.
It’s pretty crazy with the conservative Feds, but no one can top the crazy of the CLP in the NT.
Not sure if people saw the details of this, but Giles retained the top job via counter-coup – Giles and his 4 buddies essentially said that they wouldn’t support a van Holthe-led CLP in Parliament.
As crazy as Abott is, could you imagine him losing a party room ballot and then him and his supporters threatening to ditch Turnbull/Bishop in the House???
The legislation setting the deadline for Intergenerational Report needs to include a penalty, such as a fine or expulsion from parliament for the responsible minister, or it’s toothless and treasurers will happily ignore it if it suits them.
In the last 2 weeks a lot of talk about Germany disciplining the Greeks.
Here’s an interesting perspective:
http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/28416-focus-germany-killed-millions-and-had-their-debts-forgiven-why-wont-they-forgive-greeces-debt
Tom H
Then NT will be out on its own? And why doesn’t Queensland split into north and south timezones?
“@abcnewsAdelaide: SA Government considering shifting SA’s timezone to match Eastern seaboard of WA.”
When a professional organisation like the ABC can do a typo I think the occasional typo here can be forgiven
I don’t understand. What’s wrong with SA’s timezone?
Adelaide’s sunrise and sunset seems pretty consistent with Melbourne’s throughout the year. Moving it back or forward will drastically change people’s lifestyles.
[The legislation setting the deadline for Intergenerational Report needs to include a penalty, such as a fine or expulsion from parliament for the responsible minister, or it’s toothless and treasurers will happily ignore it if it suits them.]
I don’t really think a penalty is needed. Governments have a moral obligation to follow laws (otherwise how can they ask the people to do so?).
However, I don’t think missing a deadline by a few days is significant. If they haven’t tabled it on the first sitting day (which is the day closest to 5 years) then maybe there’d be a case for complaint.
Also, I personally find the term “eastern seaboard” a bit too much out of American colloquialism. I prefer the term eastern states.
Re Tom Hawkins @169: if SA adopts East Australian Time, that would put Adelaide about 45 minutes ahead of the Sun, with Port Lincoln nearly an hour. Add an hour for Daylight saving. In mid Winter the sun in Adelaide would rise a bit before 8:00AM. I’m not sure whether that would increase or decrease the rate at which curtains fade.
I can think of one way that Abbott might regain some popular appeal: tax the cross-border shenanigans those “related companies” get up to.
With over $300bn per financial year in dodgy transactions, surely a few dollars can be kicked loose for the kitty?
[What Malcolm said or did not say in 2009 …]
Is, particularly in this instance, extremely relevant.
When circumstance change it is permissible to alter course.
But in this instance circumstances have not changed except to have become worse.
The position Turnbull ostensibly espoused a mere 5 and bit years ago is more urgently in need of support from everyone, including him, now than then.
It is indicative of his willingness to sell his reputation to get what he wants but not what is needed by this nation.
He is willing to throw away his alleged principles so that he can satisfy his ambition.
I thoroughly endorse the comments of steve777 at #138 with emphasis on the last sentence -” he’ll go along with his party’s troglodytes to get the top job.’
Ambition and ego trump integrity – we don’t need or want such as PM, quite the opposite, we’ve already got Tweedledum, we don’t want to have him replaced with Tweedledee.
Turnbull belongs to a party that is supposed to determine policies as a group. I’m sure he’d love to have a carbon price, but his party doesn’t. Is not being able to get every policy you want a reason to knock back the top job?
I believe you can add Holt to the list of PMs who never lost an election
“@bevanshields85: Turnbull’s office denies this RT: @BenFordham @JulieBishopMP and @TurnbullMalcolm have arranged to meet at his Sydney home today. #auspol”
guytaur
What words did they use in the denial ,”inaccurate” ? 🙂
I sorta enjoyed the clip of Hockey in the news. “Stop it, stop it, everybody. Don’t be nasty to Tony, and don’t mention the war. It upsets me. “
triton@181: you beat me to it. Turnbull won’t be able to do anything about climate change or anything else unless he becomes leader.
Anyway, I assume that all Turnbull is promising is that he will give Direct Action a chance for the time being and then reassess the situation if the international community changes its tack.
There are many things you can say against Turnbull, but’s he’s a clever dude who is certainly capable of manoeuvering his way through all of this stuff.
If he becomes leader, Turnbull’s main problems IMO will be his tendency to become complacent and assume he knows what he is doing when it is actually imperative for him to be across the detail. It is the typical barrister’s problem: a barrister can deal to a certain extent with a situation in which unpleasant facts emerge that undermine what he or she has been saying. But, in politics, the devil is always in the detail: the Godwin Grech affair was a textbook instance.
Hopefully Turnbull has learnt from his past experience. Unlike Abbott, he will not need to fill his office with spin doctor types like Credlin but, rather, policy wonks who are prepared to cross the t’s and dot the i’s in areas where he isn’t sufficiently across the detail.
dtt @ 149
[What Malcolm said or did not say in 2009 is no more relevant that JGs immigration comments in 2004, or indeed her building invoices.]
I disagree. In principle you are right, but the fact is that much of Turnbull’s current popularity with the middle of the electorate sits on his not doing a Greg Hunt.
Turnbull fell on his defence of ETS and a market mechanism to address climate change. He has owned the middle ground of the electorate because he appears to stand on his principles which none of his colleagues appear to do. To back down on the ETS, whatever weasel words he uses, will lose at least one or two percent in the polls. He will just be another who is prepared to sell their arse to be PM.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/04/japanese-bank-introduces-robot-workers-to-deal-with-customers-in-branches
The future is Nao, or why I’m pushing for Basic Income to move forward as a society.
[Ambition and ego trump integrity – we don’t need or want such as PM, quite the opposite, we’ve already got Tweedledum, we don’t want to have him replaced with Tweedledee.]
In my view it’s better to have in place a leader who may in future act on climate change than one who will never do so.
PVO on twitter
[The threats and counter threats are well underway within the government. Whatever happens next week it will be messy, and probably won’t end]
Why is Morrison being suggested as Treasurer? Has he indicated that’s what he wants? Or is there just no one else. Didn’t Robb want a guernsey at one time?
1tep @ 189
How far into the future? If he won’t do it before the 2016 election, he is no different.
mb @ 186
As for the PM being bound by his party, that’s fine, but the residual support for him from those whose votes he needs to win will dissipate. He will need to not only be a better PM than Abbott, which is easy, but will have to have better policies.
lizzie
Only going by obsevations, Andrew Robb would be in the Hockey, Cormann, Pyne, Frydenberg camp. Morrison probably in the Turnbull, Bishop camp
Turnbull has clearly shown that he will never do so.
He has chosen easily twisted weasel words as his escape clause and ‘international circumstances’ will never change to his satisfaction unless – and this is the key point – the trogs in the party agree.
In which case vote for the trogs cos that is who is exercising the power.
[BREAKING: SA Govt considering shifting SA’s Timezone to match Eastern seaboard or WA #saparli @abcnewsSA ]
I hope they shift the SA timezone back to the 1970s. With Dunstan in office and some great live music it was a happening time.
I know its not the done thing to post about the current topic, but couldn’t help commenting on the Vic TPP.
Even after spleen venting on the one term do nothing Failyou/Naptime govt, the Vic electorate still has ALP over LNP 58/42 TPP.
That is an extraordinary level of absentmindedness on behalf of the Vic’s.
Abbott has always been disliked in Victoria, but now, from what I hear it is just open derision and mocking. He seems to be seen here akin to a Sarah Palin type total ignoramous, bereft of any judgement or common sense whatsoever.
Vic Libs are aghast at his performance. A state where their brand has been on the nose for 30 years is getting a slaughtering from the likes of NSW Libs Abbott and Hockey.
I know many Libs down here who feel the party is in terminal shape and may not be in power in any form for a decade at least.
Ominous for real democracy in this state in the Libs are wiped out. We all saw what unrestrained power can do in Qld.
victoria
Yes, I thought Frydenberg was previously being barracked for. I really object to all the ones who parrot the mantras. That’s probably why Turnbull comes over as “more mature”. He speaks in real sentences 😆
triton 181
Turnbull can do what he want’s, but that doesn’t mean people won’t notice blatant hypocrisy.
Itep 189,
I probably prefer Turnbull (we shall see) to Abbott, but you are letting him have it 3 ways there… (He believes in it, but not enough to stop him uniting the party, but enough to do something in the future)
As a general comment, I see that the slimy A@#ehole Tony Abbott is desperately trying to suggest that Labor is not supporting the Government’s yet to be released anti-terrorism and metadata laws.
Clearly, being the PM has not lifted this slime ball out of the primordial septic tank dregs in which he wallowed for the length of his period as LOTO.
After the first attempt at this false wedge in the NPC speech on Monday, Shorten came out and made it clear it was a load of bull. However, as the MSM and the rest of us are obsessed with the leadersh1t circus, Abbott’s slimy piece of spin has gotten no traction and Bill Shorten has been, cleverly. silent since.
Just noting this as it reinforces my view that hyenas don’t suddenly go vegetarian.