BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor

Queensland leads the way in a catastrophic dive for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading goes a fair way towards illustrating what all the fuss is about in federal politics just at the moment, following the addition of new numbers from Galaxy, Ipsos and Essential Research (albeit that the latter was actually something of a dampener). Compared with last week’s reading, shifts of approaching 2% have been recorded for the two major parties on both the two-party and primary vote. Even Palmer United, which had fallen below 2% for a while there, seems to have lifted itself off the canvas as voters desert the Coalition every which way. No fewer than nine seats are recorded as switching from the Coalition column to Labor since last week’s result, including two each in Victoria and Western Australia, one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, and – interestingly enough – three in Queensland. There is presently not a single seat in Brisbane where the model rates the Coalition win probability at higher than 31%.

Ipsos and Galaxy also provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, albeit that the latter only did so for preferred prime minister. Sharp as the drop on Tony Abbott’s net approval has been, his present reading of minus 27.6% is a lot more flattering than the numbers produced by Ipsos, suggesting he has a good way further to fall next week. Because the model has two sets of numbers to work with on preferred prime minister rather than one, its reading has nearly caught up with the Ipsos and Galaxy results, putting Bill Shorten nearly as far ahead as Tony Abbott was immediately after the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor”

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  1. Morning all. Thanks for updating bludgertrack William. It s quite conclusive now, with the difference between Liberal and Labor like Knight and day.

    Needless to say leadersship talk is in the air. So Joe Hockey demonstrates his oratorical skill:
    [“The difference between Canberra and Hollywood is there’s, thankfully, no naughty stuff going on here.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leadership-speculation-at-fever-pitch-as-arthur-sinodinos-calls-pms-judgment-into-question-20150204-1367qx.html

    No Joe, talking about leadership is healthy. Another difference to Hollywood is that in Hollywood, when you become as unpopular as Abbott, your time on air rapidly comes to an end.

    The article also says that, at a personal level within then Liberal party, Abbott is still well liked. Why? Obviously lies, deceit and misogyny do not bother them. Have a good day all.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. The wagons might be circling but so are the sharks!

    Mark Kenny and James Massola explain the process by which Abbott’s demise might occur.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leadership-speculation-at-fever-pitch-as-arthur-sinodinos-calls-pms-judgment-into-question-20150204-1367qx.html
    Abbott’s new order – visible Margie and invisible Peta. Paul Shehan.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-new-order-visible-margie-invisible-peta-20150204-1364ru.html
    Lenore Taylor on how the Liberals are pondering Bishop and Turnbull.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/04/liberal-leadership-mps-ponder-pros-and-cons-of-julie-bishop-and-malcolm-turnbull
    Abbott’s leadership is in meltdown says Kenny. Mark that is! The leadership is now governing for its own survival. It’s like a stricken nuclear reactor. In political terms he is bankrupt -trading while insolvent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-leadership-in-meltdown-as-siege-mentality-grips-canberra-20150204-13651z.html
    Lenore Taylor says Direct Action could be in Turnbull’s favour.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/04/liberal-leadership-how-direct-action-works-in-malcolm-turnbulls-favour
    Terminating Abbott won’t knock off the climate change sceptics.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/2/4/policy-politics/terminating-abbott-wont-knock-climate-sceptics
    It would seem Hockey has breached the charter of budget honesty by not releasing the intergenerational report on time.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-breaches-charter-of-budget-honesty-20150204-1367g7.html
    Is Abbott reaping what he sowed?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/02/04/tony-abbott-reaping-sowed/
    The Guardian examines the intervention of Sinodinos.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/04/arthur-sinodinos-says-his-support-for-tony-abbott-is-not-unconditional
    Lambie wants Turnbull to replace Abbott – if that means anything.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jacqui-lambie-wants-malcolm-turnbull-to-replace-tony-abbott-as-pm-20150204-13630z.html

  3. Section 2 . . .

    More grist for the mill as Credlin vetoes Sussan Ley’s CoS recommendation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/peta-credlin-overrules-health-minister-sussan-leys-pick-for-chief-of-staff-20150204-135ttt.html
    The truth behind the government’s summer of discontent.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-truth-behind-the-liberals-summer-of-discontent-20150204-135gif.html
    Judith Ireland’s form guide on the leadership contenders.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/what-would-it-be-like-if-the-nation-did-a-bishop-or-turnbull-instead-20150204-135jyp.html
    Michelle Grattan on opposing backbench players.
    https://theconversation.com/bring-on-a-leadership-vote-next-week-liberal-backbencher-37113
    The Independent Australia – Abbott, Murdoch and Credlin and the point of no return.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/when-tony-abbott-crossed-the-line,7334
    Peter Wicks says the government product is unsaleable.
    http://wixxyleaks.com/selling-the-drama-with-a-product-as-bad-as-the-coalition-its-unsaleable/
    OK Joe, it’s appalling. So what are you going to do about it?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/multinationals-channel-more-money-through-hubs-in-singapore-switzerland-than-ever-before-tax-office-says-20150204-1363u5.html
    Negotiations on defence staff salaries get pulled by the government.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/20000-defence-staff-left-waiting-again-says-cpsu-20150204-135k0f.html
    And a miserable 0.7% pay rise for PM&C doesn’t go down too well.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/tony-abbotts-pmc-public-servants-offered-07-pay-increase-20150204-135k20.html
    The 33 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/02/04/the-thirty-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-186/

  4. Funny to hear from ABC news that Labor has effectively “cashed in” on anti Abbott sentiment in Victoria and Qld. From my observation they didn’t cash in anymore that an old lady cashes in if she finds a $50 note on the sidewalk. If Abbott is around in 12 months THEN see what cash in happens.
    The the ABC went on to make a comparison to Thatcher just prior to the Falkland’s war saying that Abbott was strong and made people feel secure. So all he needs is a one sided bloodbath with a South American dictatorship and he’s a shoe in? Perhaps a war with the Kiwi’s Or perhaps carve off Tassie and bomb it?

  5. Section 3 . . .

    More disturbing revelations at yesterday’s child sexual abuse RC.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/04/rabbi-admits-he-forgot-about-call-from-young-boy-royal-commission-told
    There’s more to science than just research.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/theres-more-to-being-a-scientist-than-research-20150204-136023.html
    Andrew Dyson thinks the captain may have lost control.

    Because Cathy Wilcox’s effort here was so good I’ll post it again!

    Ron Tandberg thinks Abbott is a bit worried.

    I don’t think this idea from Alan Moir will work.

    David Pope has a good metaphor for the NT’s government.

    Mark Knight produces some ghosts to haunt Abbott.

    Bill Leak sees through Abbott’s defences.

  6. Section 4 . . .

    John Spooner channels Edgar Allan Poe.

    David Rowe has the pugilist on his last legs!

    And Rod Clement with a couple of Abbott’s annoynces.

  7. Oh oh. At this rate no-one is going to be calling Hockey the World’s Greatest Treasurer. Further budget right-downs being discussed in hushed and horrified tones over in ‘The Australian’: deduct possibly another $40billion over the next four years.

    That Joe. No cigar.

    That Abbott. Yes we have no bananas.

  8. Morning all

    Whilst all the shenanigans are taking place with the feds, there is pressure being applied to vic Labor to release east west contracts

  9. Meanwhile over at the Government Gazette, Nikki Savva pulls out the Murdoch Mallett ™ to beat the beleaguered bogan over the head. Weekend at Bernies indeed

    [TONY Abbott’s rule is over. It is effectively dead and what we are witnessing are the death throes. If it’s not formally killed off by backbenchers next week, or soon after, and work is proceeding to make it happen, then the voters will do the job for them at the election.

    No government today, given the fickleness and impatience of voters, can survive a civil war of the kind we have seen during the past few weeks unless it is brilliant and, despite a few notable exceptions, with some important achievements, the Abbott government falls well short of that.

    Numbers are being counted. Malcolm Turnbull is said to be close. Supporters are refining their pitch, and to succeed Turnbull will have to make sure he lives up to it: there will be no emissions trading scheme unless the rest of the world moves; he will be more consultative; there will be no revenge.

    However, good performers will be rewarded, the poor ones will go and he will govern from the centre. The last is important because of the antipathy from the Nationals and the Right to Turnbull.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/time-running-out-for-damaged-pm/story-fnahw9xv-1227208245189

  10. And a bit more Nikki Savva for those not wanting to jump the paywall

    [Abbott is cage fighting, desperate to buy time, threatening blood and guts if attempts are made to remove him, but his arguments as well as those of his public defenders, who act out of duty or self-interest, sound hollow.

    If Abbott tries to do to his successor what Kevin Rudd did to his, then he will leave the same sorry legacy.

    More likely, he will be dead man repenting, rather than dead man stalking.

    Abbott says he was elected to end the chaos; Christopher Pyne says it was to provide serious government with a serious leader. Here’s the problem: Abbott institutionalised chaos, then rendered himself ridiculous.]

    it would appear the Victorian Libs (Savva being Costello’s Melbourne Club proxy) have decided that Abbott is gone

  11. “I confess to a dislike of McMahon. The longer one is associated with him the deeper the contempt for him grows and I find it hard to allow him any merit. Disloyal, devious, dishonest, untrustworthy, petty, cowardly – all these adjectives have been weighed by me and I could not in truth modify or reduce any one of them in its application to him.”

    Replace, in Haslucks quote, McMahon with Abbott and we’ve arrived in 2015.

  12. victoria@11

    Whilst all the shenanigans are taking place with the feds, there is pressure being applied to vic Labor to release east west contracts

    Yes, including from the Libs. I don’t get what’s going on here. Before the election the Libs kept it secret and Labor wanted it released, and now it’s the other way around, despite supposedly being highly embarrassing for the Libs.

  13. triton

    Not sure what exactly is going on, but the libs might be goading Vic Labor to release the contracts in order to derail the talks with the consortium to settle the matter without too much damage to the bottom line

  14. “@latikambourke: ‘Essentially metadata is data about data.’ PM Abbott asked to explain what will be captured under metadata laws. @smh”

    Sorry it was worse than I thought

  15. [Numbers are being counted. Malcolm Turnbull is said to be close. Supporters are refining their pitch, and to succeed Turnbull will have to make sure he lives up to it: there will be no emissions trading scheme unless the rest of the world moves; he will be more consultative; there will be no revenge.]

    So if Turnbull does get in, there is a (faint) hope that an ETS could be supported by the Libs, given the direction in which Obama and the Chinese leadership are moving. It would also dampen any Coalition scare campaign over what Labor is expected to promise at the election.

  16. A good way for the journos to put another nail in Abbott’s coffin would be to grill him on the finer points of metadata and then put the car-crash responses on the news.

  17. Triton / Victoria

    I think Victoria has the right of it re the East-West Link contracts.

    As best I can tell, the Liberals signed a massive payout clause knowing they were going to lose, which Labour is trying furiously to negotiate to a more reasonable position. To assist the negotiations the ALP aren’t releasing the contract.

    Strong sources (though second hand) suggest the most likely outcome is a new contract for a different project. Certainly if the consortium insists on the full payout they’ll never work another Government contract.

  18. Rates Analyst
    [Strong sources (though second hand) suggest the most likely outcome is a new contract for a different project. Certainly if the consortium insists on the full payout they’ll never work another Government contract. ]

    Can a new contract be awarded to the consortium without going through a fair tender process, which could award it to another bidder? Andrews mentioned alternative projects a while ago, but then backed away, I thought because of such issues with the process.

  19. Triton – probably not without playing in the grey areas a bit, but I suspect those rules would be easier enough to get around.

    Gov: Here’s a check for $300m

    Developers: Thank you, here’s a bid for a project at fair price less $275m.

    I doubt anyone could beat that price….

    Is that underhanded and slightly dodgy. Does it happen all the time in Finance? Of course.

  20. Rates Analyst
    If (*if*) the East West Consortium locked in a lot of long interest rate hedging for the debt on the project, the break costs would be very substantial, given the fall in interest rates

  21. “@TheKouk: Euro getting smashed, stocks smashed too… ECB putting some crazy text book policy theory ahead of applied economic management”

  22. There was a comment here the other day on Kingdom Holding’s stake in News Corp. From WSJ (not sure if disclosed already)…
    [RIYADH— Kingdom Holding , the investment company owned by Saudi Prince al-Waleed bin Talal, said it has cut its stake in News Corp as part of a portfolio review. But the billionaire prince reiterated his faith in News Corp management.

    “We remain firm believers in News Corp’s competent management, led by CEO Robert Thomson , and are fully supportive of Rupert Murdoch and his family,” Prince al-Waleed said.

    It continues to hold a 6.6% stake in Mr. Murdoch’s other company, 21st Century Fox…]

    …blah blah blah, another 3 paragraphs before one finishes the hagiography of this article of course in a News Corp owned paper, and so we get to paragraph 7 (!) which I understand is the usual placement for the key concept of a news article

    [In a Saudi bourse filing on Wednesday, Kingdom Holding said it sold a big chunk of its holding in News Corp’s Class B shares, decreasing its stake to 1% from 6.6%…Kingdom Holding said the funds from the sale, which was executed mostly in the first half of 2014]
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabias-kingdom-holding-cuts-stake-in-news-corp-1423058609

  23. [
    “@latikambourke: ‘Essentially metadata is data about data.’ PM Abbott asked to explain what will be captured under metadata laws. @smh”

    Sorry it was worse than I thought
    ]

    I’m sure Abbott has bugger all idea about Metadata, but to be fair, the first line of Wikipedia’s article on Metadata says:

    [
    Metadata is “data about data”.
    ]

    So he has at least had a quick read of Wikipedia.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metadata

  24. sprocket_ @15
    [there will be no revenge…]
    So a fair degree of retention of the deadwood

    […and he will govern from the centre. The last is important because of the antipathy from the Nationals and the Right to Turnbull.]
    ROFL…the centre! As if Turnbull were some unreconstructed Maoist-Trotskyite!

  25. Victoria:

    Me too.

    Laocoon:

    Yes – but why would the East-West consortium have done that? The builders would have been receiving future payments, not making them?

  26. Rates Analyst
    I dont know details of this, but I understood that East West was a form of public-private partnership which is likely to be the debt issuer (i.e. not just a building contract). I think LLC has an equity stake in the project

  27. [Liberals from the party’s conservative wing are taking soundings from West Australian voters to determine whether they should stick with Tony Abbott.

    In the wake of WA backbencher Dennis Jensen’s public call for the Prime Minister to go, other MPs and senators are reconsidering their position.

    _The West Australian _can reveal Senator Dean Smith told Mr Abbott last weekend that he still had his support. But Senator Smith said last night that he was now canvassing the views of grassroots WA Liberal members.

    Senator Smith is one of the party’s leading conservative thinkers but has been at odds with Mr Abbott over wheat deregulation and the about-face on changing the Racial Discrimination Act.

    Hasluck MP Ken Wyatt indicated he was likely to air his grievances with the Government’s direction at a crucial partyroom meeting next week.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/26201572/abbotts-wa-support-solid/

    A few other WA backbenchers support Abbott.

  28. [Is this the first time in years that ALP seats outnumber LNP seats in every state in Bludgertrack?]

    Maybe, but I’ll believe Labor will win the majority of seats in WA when it happens.

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