BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor

Queensland leads the way in a catastrophic dive for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading goes a fair way towards illustrating what all the fuss is about in federal politics just at the moment, following the addition of new numbers from Galaxy, Ipsos and Essential Research (albeit that the latter was actually something of a dampener). Compared with last week’s reading, shifts of approaching 2% have been recorded for the two major parties on both the two-party and primary vote. Even Palmer United, which had fallen below 2% for a while there, seems to have lifted itself off the canvas as voters desert the Coalition every which way. No fewer than nine seats are recorded as switching from the Coalition column to Labor since last week’s result, including two each in Victoria and Western Australia, one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, and – interestingly enough – three in Queensland. There is presently not a single seat in Brisbane where the model rates the Coalition win probability at higher than 31%.

Ipsos and Galaxy also provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, albeit that the latter only did so for preferred prime minister. Sharp as the drop on Tony Abbott’s net approval has been, his present reading of minus 27.6% is a lot more flattering than the numbers produced by Ipsos, suggesting he has a good way further to fall next week. Because the model has two sets of numbers to work with on preferred prime minister rather than one, its reading has nearly caught up with the Ipsos and Galaxy results, putting Bill Shorten nearly as far ahead as Tony Abbott was immediately after the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor”

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  1. Re TBA @88: that poll looks a bit dodgy – there would be a strong element of self-selection.

    Be that as it may, many Australians believe in the death penalty, although I am not one of them. Those who believe in the death penalty mostly believe that it should be reserved for the most heinous murders and terrorism.

    In the case of the Bali Nine, I think that the Australian Government has done everything that it reasonably could have done.

  4. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 10:11 am | PERMALINK
    I do wonder if the govt are going to dump uni dereegulation]

    If so, they haven’t told their ad agency. There was a TV advert last night. Our taxes going down the drain again.

  5. From what i have gleaned from Andrew Robbb’s comments, the game plan for Abbott is to appease the backbench by dumping unpopular budget measures that are not going to pass the senate anyway. Thereby garnering their support

  7. [“In that case the government’s claimed almost entire reason for being (fixing the budget “mess”) is flushed down the toilet.”]

    Spending money like drunken sailors and running up the debt for someone else to pay like Labor did is very very easy.

    Making hard decisions, cutting some services and trying to reign in spending is very very hard. The Coalition should be commended for doing what is required to put this country back on the path to economic sustainability but instead they are attacked.

    Do you think it is easy for Governments to make cuts to pay down the $300 Billion in debt Labor left us? Do you think Abbott enjoys having to make these hard decisions to pay down Labors $300B in debt? Wouldn’t it be much easier for him to do nothing just like Labor did?

    What is wrong with this country.

  9. [His Knightgood of the Order of Australia is in the middle, just ahead of “Additional Member of the Order of New Zealand” (which sounds a bit like an afterthought).]

    ROFL. Who came up with the title ‘Additional Member of the Order of New Zealand’?

  10. [The Coalition should be commended for doing what is required to put this country back on the path to economic sustainability but instead they are attacked.]

    If the reports are to believed they’re doing exactly the opposite of that.

  13. TBA

    “rein” not “reign”

    If the report is true then your Liberal darlings might no longer be intending to make those “hard” decisions, and instead become soft as marshmallow to appease those who are out to get Tony. Where will you go then?

  15. [The Coalition should be commended for doing what is required to put this country back on the path to economic sustainability but instead they are attacked.]

    Unless the coalition start putting things like high-income super tax concessions on the table then the Australian public are quite right to reject the Coalition’s ‘savings’.

  18. TBA

    you fall into the trap that all right-wingers do when discussing this.

    You do know that the Government has both Revenues and Expenses right? Why is balancing the budget always about cutting expenses?

  20. TBA

    Several of the Coal’s ‘brilliant’ decisions have meant we now have less income and a bigger deficit. Try to look at the situation with less emotion and more logical analysis.

    For example, how will shedding jobs from the tax department assist in catching more tax evaders? The have retrenched many of the most skilled and experienced analysts in the department.

  21. truthie asked –

    [ What is wrong with this country. ]

    Things are on the way back.

    Victoria sorted, Campbell booted last week, abbott on borrowed time.

    Abbott doing everything possible to damage himself, his party and the country –

    If they can’t govern themselves, they can’t govern the country.

  22. Triton

    Tories like TBA are hard wired to write “reign” .

    It comes from their born to rule mentality and devotion to an old lady from
    A minor north European country.

  24. truthie, on the wRONg track still –

    [ Spending money like drunken sailors and running up the debt for someone else to pay like Labor did is very very easy.

    Making hard decisions, cutting some services and trying to reign in spending is very very hard. ]

    Its the tories who are spending like drunken sailors –

    [ In 2012-13, Labor’s last full budget, government spending as a share of GDP was 24.1 per cent. The unwind from the GFC stimulus was more or less complete.

    Mr Hockey’s MYEFO numbers show that government revenue will rise to 24.3 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 and 24.8 per cent of GDP in 2017-18.

    Those of you with a sharp mind can see that if Mr Abbott had not starting spending like a proverbial drunken sailor and held government spending at Labor’s post-GFC level at 24.1 per cent, there would be budget surpluses from 2016-17 (as Labor has budgetted for under PEFO), with a budget surplus at around $13 billion in 2017-18.

    The fact is that for this and every year of the Abbott government’s forward estimates, government spending as a share of GDP is 25.2 per cent or more.

    Just the simple facts. ]

    http://thekouk.com/blog/the-abbott-government-s-crazy-spending-spree.html#.VNKvwi4mbLV

  25. [ You do know that the Government has both Revenues and Expenses right? ]

    RA, to most people with even less than half a brain people that’s obvious like a baboons rear end. Its also a very basic point that has been made again and again and again here and in the media. Libs and their bots just not hearing.

    [ Why is balancing the budget always about cutting expenses? ]

    Because of the Great Big New Tax Monster that the Libs created in opposition and “promises”.

    Although why on earth they have any concern for being seen to keep promises now is beyond me? That horse has well and truly bolted and i dont see how that issue can see them MORE damaged.

    Will be interesting to see what Robb comes out with on Tuesday. It will tell us something about what the 2015 budget will look like and i reckon THATS the main game here that will influence their prospects for 2016 rather than leadersh$t.

  27. https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26199682/turnbull-in-climate-change-shift/
    [Turnbull in climate change shift
    Andrew Probyn Federal Political Editor
    February 5, 2015, 2:25 am

    Malcolm Turnbull would make no change to the Government’s climate change policy in a major concession designed to extinguish lingering doubts about a return to him as Liberal leader.

    _The West Australian _ understands that Mr Turnbull’s supporters have been assuring colleagues that he would stick with the Direct Action policy to give business long-term certainty.

    They say Mr Turnbull, who lost the Liberal leadership by one vote to Tony Abbott in 2009 over his support for Kevin Rudd’s emissions trading scheme, is believed to regard the 2013 election as a referendum on the ETS.

    It is understood Mr Turnbull believes Australia’s climate change policy should not alter until international circumstances change – reflecting the dominant view inside the Government that Australia should not act in advance of major polluters.]

  32. truthie – get your facts right on debt as well – Over the forward estimates, the tory debt will increase 69%.

    [ The level of gross commonwealth government debt {pre Dec 2014 MYEFO} has risen a thumping $75bn to a record $348bn.

    The figure will be higher still when MYEFO is released and the forecasts will be for even higher debt.

    { The Dec 2014 MYEFO shows Toxic Tony’s debt will be $508 Billion by 2017-18 *}

    In terms of ‘paying down debt’, this government has failed. ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/02/budget-surplus-a-distant-dream-as-coalition-presides-over-spending-surge

    * http://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/myefo/html/09_attachment_f.htm

  34. [Malcolm Turnbull would make no change to the Government’s climate change non-policy ..]
    Gutless and dishonest.
    Dishonest cos he pretends to care, dishonest because the COALition doesn’t have a climate change policy [hence my not so subtle correction in the quote], gutless because he’s hoping to bribe his way into position uno numero to suit his ego and bugger the rest of us.

  35. Imacca,

    I’m an optimist. I hope one day someone one of the bots might actually mount a counter argument, or change their mind.

    Oh, is that a half-full glass over there….

  36. [ fredex
    Posted Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    Malcolm Turnbull would make no change to the Government’s climate change non-policy .. ]

    He was singing a different tune not so long ago. So much for him keeping his ‘word’ –

    [ Former Liberal Leader Turnbull on Abbott

    Dec 7, 2009 – MALCOLM Turnbull has today described the new Liberal leader Tony Abbott’s views on climate change as “bullshit” and vowed to cross the floor ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/turnbull-blasts-abbotts-bullshit-climate-change-stance-20091206-kdn5.html

  37. fredex

    I lost faith in Malcolm when he set out to wreck the real NBN. Buying back a clapped out copper network is surely the most expensive waste of money ever deamed up. He may have lots of money, but perhaps his wife is the one with the money-making brain (like Hockey?).

  38. No doubt Malcolm Turnbull also approves of dismantling Medicare, Workchoices 2, cuts to health and education spending, breaking up and privatising the ABC anbd SBS in the medium to long term and $100,000 degrees. As for climate change, he’ll go along witn his party’s troglodytes to get the top job.

  39. fredex,

    The ALP supporter in me was worried about Turnbull until I saw that he is supposedly going to support direct action.

    Being PM is hard enough without being a contortionist. It’s also not hard to defeat someone with their own words, and Turnbull has left plenty of material out there.

  40. The cartoon tweeted by Libtweeta suggest that the government’s unpopularity is because of Tony. I reckon, Tony probably accounts for 10% of it, the rest is the Coal’s ideology/policies.

    Get ready for he MSM/ABC’s new message post-Tony: “All fixed now – we have a wonderful government again. Labor and Greens bad!”

  41. An interesting quote from Malcolm Turnbull towards the end of the article from December 2009 linked by Dave @136:

    [The former Opposition Leader {Turnbull} declared that the failure to uphold the {ETS} deal negotiated with the Government meant: “We have given our opponents the irrefutable, undeniable evidence that we cannot be trusted.”]

    He was right. Surely there’s a slogan for Labor in that.

  43. Steve 141, Just the ticket.

    You could dig up enough quotes to fill question time for years.

    I don’t think Mr. ETS can morph in Mr. Coal without looking flimsy and untrustworthy.

  45. From a couple of comments within articles I am getting the message that if the Libs accept AGW and actually want to do something about it, they will lose the Nationals as part of the Coalition, and therefore lose their majority.

    Is this too long a bow to draw?

  47. Will Abbott go down in history as a PM who never lost an election? JG holds that distinction as does Bob Hawke and John Gorton. Are there others apart from those that held the position for very short period as a new PM was ‘elected’?

  49. OK People

    Lets put aside the useless whinging about events in 2009. 5+ years have passed, two three PMs and a new LO. All state premiers have changed and nearly all world leaders have changed. There has been a GFC and Australia is now in or nearly in recession. WWIII in Ukraine is still a possibility and Japan is militaristic. The care industry is dead.

    What Malcolm said or did not say in 2009 is no more relevant that JGs immigration comments in 2004, or indeed her building invoices.

    What Labor/left/progressive must NOW deal with is that Turnbull is probably PM. What he said about the ETS in 2009 is no longer relevant and to carry on about it is sillier than the Juliar people.

    So how are progressives going to fight the new look Tories. It seems to me these are the core issues:

    Unemployment and related issues of a fading economy

    Probably a trade deficit which is dangerous, pushes the $ down and increases cost of living. This ties in to the impact of FTAs

    Protecting medicare

    A fair education system

    Protecting civil liberties and free speech.

    Maintaining government services

    Of course there will be others must these are my top 5 and my guesses as to what is important to average citizens.

    Bill Shorten and labor need to develop a plan NOW to have a cohewrent and saleable policy on these issues.

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