BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor

Queensland leads the way in a catastrophic dive for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading goes a fair way towards illustrating what all the fuss is about in federal politics just at the moment, following the addition of new numbers from Galaxy, Ipsos and Essential Research (albeit that the latter was actually something of a dampener). Compared with last week’s reading, shifts of approaching 2% have been recorded for the two major parties on both the two-party and primary vote. Even Palmer United, which had fallen below 2% for a while there, seems to have lifted itself off the canvas as voters desert the Coalition every which way. No fewer than nine seats are recorded as switching from the Coalition column to Labor since last week’s result, including two each in Victoria and Western Australia, one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, and – interestingly enough – three in Queensland. There is presently not a single seat in Brisbane where the model rates the Coalition win probability at higher than 31%.

Ipsos and Galaxy also provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, albeit that the latter only did so for preferred prime minister. Sharp as the drop on Tony Abbott’s net approval has been, his present reading of minus 27.6% is a lot more flattering than the numbers produced by Ipsos, suggesting he has a good way further to fall next week. Because the model has two sets of numbers to work with on preferred prime minister rather than one, its reading has nearly caught up with the Ipsos and Galaxy results, putting Bill Shorten nearly as far ahead as Tony Abbott was immediately after the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 33
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  1. Nice pic of Shorten selling the Big Issue. A stunt, sure, but it’s the right type of image to be projecting at the moment – a non-crazy leader with a dash of compassion.

    I keep saying that the news media are over-complicating the reasons for the electorate’s “volatility”. All the public wants is a generally sane leadership that doesn’t go off on ideological crusades and maintains a decent welfare safety net and education system for all, while allowing individuals to prosper if they work hard.

    That’s all. Shouldn’t be that hard to achieve.

  2. Andrew Robb states that there will be significant announcements to be made on Tuesday and he believes this will get the govt back on track

  3. Laocoon@36

    Rates Analyst
    If (*if*) the East West Consortium locked in a lot of long interest rate hedging for the debt on the project, the break costs would be very substantial, given the fall in interest rates

    If they have done that and it was a reasonable thing to do for such a project, then perhaps they have a good argument to be compensated for it. They should be compensated for losses only. They should not be getting a windfall for not building anything.

  4. PVO on twitter

    [Any frontbencher asked if they support the PM must say yes or resign on the spot. Doesn’t really mean much frankly.]

  5. victoria:

    Wasn’t Abbott’s NPC speech meant to get the govt back on track?

    Robb is dreaming if he thinks the last couple of weeks’ worth of leadership divisions can be neatly swept aside.

  6. The Nationals are scared of a Turnbull comeback:

    [Federal National Party MPs and senators say their Liberal cousins should pull their heads in, “take a cold shower” and give Tony Abbott a chance amid speculation about the Prime Minister’s leadership.

    The junior Coalition party is holding its first major meeting of the year in regional Victoria today and several members are making a point of publicly endorsing the Prime Minister.

    Many Nationals still have misgivings about former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull because of his support for an emissions trading scheme in 2009.

    The issue fractured the Coalition and cost him the top job, losing a ballot to Mr Abbott by one vote.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/nationals-backbenchers-urge-liberals-to-give-abbott-a-chance/6071296

  7. confessions

    I suspect they have brainstormed over the past few days and have come up with something that they believe will get them back on track

  8. victoria @ 52

    [Andrew Robb states that there will be significant announcements to be made on Tuesday and he believes this will get the govt back on track]

    Everyone gets a puppy ?

  9. [Any frontbencher asked if they support the PM must say yes or resign on the spot. Doesn’t really mean much frankly.]

    Yep. Backbenchers OTOH are interesting. In that West article, WA Senators and MPs in safe Liberal seats are mostly behind Abbott. However Wyatt, who is in a marginal seat, isn’t so sure.

  13. [Andrew Robb states that there will be significant announcements to be made on Tuesday and he believes this will get the govt back on track]

    Champagne for everyone.

  14. “@ABCNews24: .@billshortenmp: this government has lost its way… changing the salesman will not change what they are selling #auspol #ABCNews24”

  18. Callers on the Jon Faine morning show are calling in giving support to the ABC after someone wrote in criticising the ABC for fueling / causing the leadership instability.

  19. [So Andrew Robb reckons Newspoll will be a positive for the COALition and Abbott?]

    I actually wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the Newspoll is better than expected. Polling often moves towards a party during leadership stoushes as some people will feel sympathy for the incumbent leader and others will think a change is imminent. If Abbott remains leader after next week I imagine there will be a recorrection in the subsequent Newspoll. All guesses of course!

  20. Laocoon

    I don’t believe this was a PPP. I think this was your more standard “build us a freeway then we give you a cheque” arrangement.

    The builders might have needed to borrow money as working capital – in advance of the payments from the Government – but if so that should be fairly short-term, which makes the interest rate break cost pretty small.

    There’s no detail, but I’m inferring from a number of news stories that mention that the Government would introduce tolls to defray the cost. That seems to suggest that the Government is wearing the long-run risk.

  22. [ECB Pulls The Trigger: Blocks Funding To Greece – Full Statement

    Just what the market had hoped would not happen…

    *ECB SAYS IT LIFTS WAIVER ON GREEK GOVERNMENT DEBT AS COLLATERAL

    *ECB SAYS IT CAN’T ASSUME SUCCESSFUL CONCLUSION OF GREECE REVIEW

    What this means simply is that since Greek banks are now unable to pledge Greek bonds as collateral and fund themselves, and liquidity is about to evaporate, the ECB has effectively just given a green light for Greek bank runs, as suddenly it has removed, both mathematically but worse politically, a key support pillar from underneath the already bailed out Greek banking system.

    … what is really at stake now, if only for Greece, is everything: Syriza either folds, and cedes by withdrawing all demands, thus effectively ending its mandate less than 2 weeks after coming to power, or it exits the Eurozone. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/ecb-pulls-trigger-blocks-funding-greece

  23. Just thought I’d share with you a quote I came across in the S&P credit rating report of Australia last year:

    “The September 2013 general election delivered a strong electoral win to the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition, bringing an end to the Labor government’s minority rule. The Coalition, led by Prime Minister Tony Abbott, has a large majority in the lower house of parliament, which we expect will bring more political stability than seen in recent years.”

    Just thought some of you lot might appreciate it…

  25. [Andrew Robb states that there will be significant announcements to be made on Tuesday and he believes this will get the govt back on track]

    They might make a host of announcements but whether people are listening is the issue.

    People might also assume (correctly) that any announcements have been rushed in response to the leadership debacle.

  26. [Natalie Kotsios @NatalieKotsios · 5m 5 minutes ago
    Nationals leader @warrentrussmp calls on all Coalition MPs to back Tony Abbott this morning in Wodonga #auspol @bordermail]

  27. market paying money to hold Nestle Bonds – they heard about the reduction of Nestle Australia Chocolate bar size, but current price to remain ? 🙂

    [ Chocolate Is The New Gold: Corporate Bonds Have First Ever Negative Yield Thanks To Nestle

    ….You know the world has gone truly mad when… For what we believe is the first time, a Euro-denominated corporate bond yield has gone negative.

    Aa2-rated Swiss chocolate-maker Nestle saw its 2016 bonds close at -0.2bps yield follows the swing to negative yields among covered bonds (bank debt backed by loans) that started in September. As Deutsche Bank opines, maybe chocolate is the new Gold!! ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/chocolate-new-gold-corporate-bonds-have-first-ever-negative-yield-thanks-nestle

  31. Ye dogs, the COALition described as ‘centre-right’?
    Classist, racist, homophobic, xenophobic, misogynist, militaristic ….

    Where does the ‘centre’ bit get a look in?

  33. Fredex

    I was thinking more about the “more political stability” bit at the end.

    To be fair the S&P reports are designed for a world audience. Australia is Centre-Right compared to Russia, or Alabama… It does look odd to Australian eyes though.

  34. guytaur
    Posted Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 8:04 am | PERMALINK
    On leadership

    We are cleaning up Labor’s mess

    —-nah. what is being forgotten with all talk of chaos and order by the current mafia king is that the main source of instability (if that is word) is the stormtrooping of oz democracy by current nutter who claims to be saving it – it is old authoritarian trick – lablr might have handled things badly but stimulus was abbott + murdoch of course …w it is abbott’s mess and it needs to be cleaned up now

  36. Interesting –

    [ Saudis Drop Major US-based Media Mouthpiece, Sell News Corp Stake After 18 Years

    …Reuters reports, Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holdings – the investment firm owned by billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal – sold most of its stake in media giant News Corp.

    While stating that they “remain firm believers in News Corp’s competent management,” no reason for the sale was given of the US-based media mouthpiece that has been a core holding since 1997.

    …The sale of shares by Kingdom was “predominantly executed” in the first half of 2014 and finalised by the end of the year, the statement said.]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-04/saudis-drop-major-us-based-media-mouthpiece-sells-news-corp-stake-after-18-years

  37. I think it’s fair enough to delay announcing a decision – there’s still sufficient doubt about enough seats to make an announcement premature.

  38. The Poll you weren’t meant to know about… 52% of Australians support death penalty for drug smugglers in other countries.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/bali-nine-australian-poll-showing-support-for-death-penalty-misleading-say-critics-20150204-1366ul.html

    I happen to agree with them. Do the crime… do the time. You knew the laws, you played the game and lost usually for your own greed without a care in the world for those who would be using your product.

  39. Wellington was obviously going to back anyone except LNP.

    KAP are doubtless holding out for a good deal for themselves but ultimately they know only the party with most seats will form government. They might not actually support Labor but undertake not to ‘rock the boat’ as other minors/independents have done in the past.

  40. You mean the poll that we were all discussing last week?

    The death penalty is barbaric, full stop. Don’t you have phone calls to Ray Hadley to make?

  41. [“The death penalty is barbaric, full stop.”]

    What about killing and destroying others lives for your own greed and self interest?

    Do you think people should be able to kill others so they can buy a nice sports car?

  42. TBA

    [What about killing and destroying others lives for your own greed and self interest?

    Do you think people should be able to kill others so they can buy a nice sports car?]

    Is that why Abbott is determined to destroy Medicare?

  45. [What about killing and destroying others lives for your own greed and self interest?

    Do you think people should be able to kill others so they can buy a nice sports car?]

    That could be said about a lot of things – cigarette companies, alcohol companies etc.

  47. Abbott “very confident” this morning:

    [Mr Abbott was asked by reporters in Melbourne this morning how confident he is that he would still be leader this time next week.

    “I am very confident. I know my colleagues, I trust my colleagues, I respect my colleagues,” Mr Abbott told reporters.

    “I know my colleagues all got elected to end the chaos and they are as determined as I am to make sure that that’s exactly what we do.”]

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/05/bludgertrack-55-1-44-9-to-labor/?comment_page=2/#comment-2126518

  48. [Going back to Andrew Robb. It appears that they will dump some of the budget cuts to appease the back bench]

    What, the cuts that they said were urgently needed?

  50. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, February 5, 2015 at 10:01 am | PERMALINK
    Going back to Andrew Robb. It appears that they will dump some of the budget cuts to appease the back bench
    ]

    Every time they dump a 2014 budget measure they just make the fiscal position worse. Joe must be having a terrible time trying to make his calculator come up with anything other than a disastrous set of numbers.

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