BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor

Queensland leads the way in a catastrophic dive for the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

This week’s BludgerTrack reading goes a fair way towards illustrating what all the fuss is about in federal politics just at the moment, following the addition of new numbers from Galaxy, Ipsos and Essential Research (albeit that the latter was actually something of a dampener). Compared with last week’s reading, shifts of approaching 2% have been recorded for the two major parties on both the two-party and primary vote. Even Palmer United, which had fallen below 2% for a while there, seems to have lifted itself off the canvas as voters desert the Coalition every which way. No fewer than nine seats are recorded as switching from the Coalition column to Labor since last week’s result, including two each in Victoria and Western Australia, one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, and – interestingly enough – three in Queensland. There is presently not a single seat in Brisbane where the model rates the Coalition win probability at higher than 31%.

Ipsos and Galaxy also provided new numbers for the leadership ratings, albeit that the latter only did so for preferred prime minister. Sharp as the drop on Tony Abbott’s net approval has been, his present reading of minus 27.6% is a lot more flattering than the numbers produced by Ipsos, suggesting he has a good way further to fall next week. Because the model has two sets of numbers to work with on preferred prime minister rather than one, its reading has nearly caught up with the Ipsos and Galaxy results, putting Bill Shorten nearly as far ahead as Tony Abbott was immediately after the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,638 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.1-44.9 to Labor”

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  2. CTar1

    [Julian Assange: Costs of policing Wikileaks founder reach £10m]

    The cost of provisioning PC plods with tikka masala , pies and burgers in Knightsbridge would be horrendous.

  3. Nicholas@1569

    The best thing the Greek Government could is to dump the Euro, issue a new currency, redenominate all debts into the new currency, and spend heavily on job creation, infrastructure, and social services. The Euro experiment was a colossal failure. It’s better to face a difficult situation with autonomy of action than to endure relentless misery with no power to change anything.

    Agreed. The EU/Germany strategy of forcing loans on Greece (to primarily pay German and French Banks*) while simultaneously forcing austerity on a depressed economy has seen governmental revenue fall faster than the cuts. It has been a colossal failure for 5 years.

    The Greek government has cut its budget by 25% (one of the largest peacetime consolidations in history) while increasing its tax revenue to GDP ratio, but it still can’t pay the interest payments because its economy has shrunk

    The EU strategy of not writing down debt, forcing extra loans while cutting the national income of Greece simply cannot work. People can pontificate about obligations, repayments of debts, etc. but the maths simply does not work.

    * About 80% of the loans go to this.

  5. [If this mandatory cabinet solidarity is correct then it will doom the spill motion to failure. Thankfully.]
    Well Mathais Cormman went on 7:30 and said he strongly supported Abbott but said that the spill motion should be decided by a secret ballot based on a precedent that Malcolm Turnbull created in the two spill motions first against Andrews and then against Abbott.

    A secret ballot gives all the ministers the opportunity to vote against Abbott.

  8. Albrechtsen has said that the cabinet, and most of the MPs came out in strong support of Abbott, do not support him and that Abbott is 100% finished.

  10. poroti

    [The cost of provisioning PC plods with tikka masala , pies and burgers in Knightsbridge would be horrendous.]

    There’s a McDonalds not that far away.

  11. The idea that Cabinet solidarity or Ministerial solidarity would bind a meeting a party members deciding its leader is bizarre.

    First problem to work out who would be bound – 19 in Cabinet, 11 in Outer Minisrty and 13 parliamentary secretaries on a rough count.

    Second problem is to solve the conundrum that it creates an artifical barrier getting in the way of normal organisational democracy.

    Why should a member of Cabinet be denied the right to express a view on their leader.

    The Labor Party use of the same idea to try and dominate caucus voting on policy issues equally undemocratic.

  15. ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 6, 2015 at 9:29 pm | PERMALINK
    If Turnbull wants to be PM he should say that he will resign from the ministry if there isn’t a secret ballot for the spill motion.

    —-turnbull will need to do a few brave things or he is history too – not sure he is up to it – that party’s only choice but he is it of jelly –

  17. Yes, WarrenPeace. It’ll be interesting to see Sir Governor General’s face when Tony taps on the front door at breakfast time demanding ELECTION NOW!

  18. sohar@1617

    Yes, WarrenPeace. It’ll be interesting to see Sir Governor General’s face when Tony taps on the front door at breakfast time demanding ELECTION NOW!

    Even better to see the GG ask abbott to prove he has the confidence of the House in respect to his *request*.

    “Come back after the leadershit spill, sonny boy”

  19. [1617
    sohar

    Yes, WarrenPeace. It’ll be interesting to see Sir Governor General’s face when Tony taps on the front door at breakfast time demanding ELECTION NOW!]

    Were he to try this he would, naturally, find he would get no votes at all in the spill.

  22. [gloryconsequence 1608

    Expect Abbott to visit GG tomorrow.]
    Simpkins and Randall would go out and demand the spill motion go ahead.

  26. Musrum@1475

    Raaraa@1341

    Also Musrum,

    I hope it’s not a trade secret or anything, but how did you fix it? I tried looking at the codes but just got more confused.

    You don’t have to answer this if you’re a bit reluctant to do so.

    No Problem.

    I put it into Firefox and debugged it with the primitive console.log method to isolate where it was messing up.

    The line in question was by Dario and it was a call to a special framework. There is so much that can go wrong between versions of the browser and external frameworks that the first thing I tried was to just comment it out and see what functionality broke. When nothing broke I just called it done!

    Ah, interesting. I haven’t got my head around the framework thing in CSS. Good to know that wasn’t too hard of a fix.

  27. Can someone clarify that in order for the spill to be carried and then move onto a leadership vote there has be a majority of the 102 liberal members, ie 57 votes minimum?

  29. swamprat

    With an average price for a flat of £3,792,131 the denizens of Knightsbridge slumming it by eating Maccas food would see as “rad” and a larf.

  30. swamprat

    With an average price for a flat of £3,792,131 the denizens of Knightsbridge slumming it by eating Maccas food would see as “rad” and a larf.

  33. Victoria @1604

    Rowan Dean: groan. Put him in the mix with Devine, Chris Kenny, Alan Jones, Bolt, Nick Cater, etc, etc, etc, and we can see why the Fiberals are in trouble all over the country.

    It’s not just the pollies; the urgers in the media are constantly in denial. We have periods of sunshine, and then they slip back (Bolt, I’m talking to you).

  34. There’s so much stuff about Abbott’s leadership woes on Google that I’ve given up trying to find a link, but I woke up laughing this morning, remembering those reports not long after the last election about that coterie of Abbott insiders who had decided 2013 was the perfect time to “teach the electorate a lesson.”

    Remember that? Such hubris.

    Now, not many of the electorate might ever even have read or heard about that, but methinks they have taken that shoe regardless, firmly planted it on the other foot, and are in the process of sticking firmly up the Government’s derrière.

    They can try changing horses midstream, but unless they also ready to drastically change their direction, and learn the lesson the voters are determined to teach THEM, I expect they will still be going nowhere….

  36. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 43 (0) ALP 57 (0) #auspol
    10:15 PM – 7 Feb 2015

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred (Turnbull leading LIB): L/NP 49 ALP 51 #auspol
    10:15 PM – 7 Feb 2015]

  38. [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred (Bishop leading LIB): L/NP 47 ALP 53 #auspol
    10:16 PM – 7 Feb 2015]

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