Essential Research now has two weeks of polling to rub a fortnightly rolling average together, and the addition of this week’s sample to last week’s result causes two-party preferred to tick a point in the Coalition’s favour, from 54-46 to 53-47. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor, Greens and Palmer United respectively steady on 40%, 10% and 2%. Further questions find skepticism about Australian involvement in Iraq, the ABC and the High Court rated most trusted out of a specified list of institutions and organisations (though it doesn’t include police and defence forces, which might have rated higher), and the medical profession trusted in use of personal information but social media sites not so much. Also featured are interesting questions on internet and social media use, and a less interesting one on sports events.
Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor
After a strong result for Labor last week, Essential Research’s generally slow-moving fortnightly rolling average records a solid tick to the Coalition.
924 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”
[In which case, your intolerance of atheists – particularly those here – should be a worry for you.]
WWP always gets accused of this. But to me he seems to be defending his right to have a faith or at least contemplate one. He never seems to say his faith is the only one (i dunno if he even has one) or that anyone who suggests materialistic rationalism is the only way to view the world is wrong.
WWP seems to respond to the implication that anyone who considers questions of religion or spirituality is a deluded fool by defending himself and other people who have those questions who he doesn’t feel are deluded fools.
I would suggest his intolerance is for the implication he and others may be (an) idiot(s), not for other people’s right to not believe in god, nor for their right to live in a secular state. And that your accusation is a reflection of the intolerance he is exposed to, not the intolerance he practices.
I see the UK is going to introduce plain-packaging for cigs and citing Australia as an example.
I seem to remember Abbott not supporting Labor on this one.
[ Coalition backbenchers must be leaping for joy at the Productivity Commission report into employment and wages announced today. ]
More like leaping off the Malabar Headland. 🙂
mh @ 741
I think it may well be that they ARE profoundly stupid. They seem to be relying on everybody watching the colour and movement of them thrashing around bleeding all over themselves as a distraction from some pretty nasty stuff.
But….dropping in this IR inquiry just taps into tooooooo much of their negative, politically recent history and they are not in a position to engage in over reach. The IR stuff could well be nail meet coffin time, but its out in the wild now and will have a life of its own regardless.
And curiously with an end 2015 reporting date will come not far ahead of major job losses in the car industry. They will of course try to spin it as outlining vital changes that need to be made to deal with employment and jobs growth and will no doubt have the backing of the MSM for that. But if they haven’t shaken off the “unfairness” theme that’s hanging around their neck like a rotting albatross before that…they are Fwarked.
Oh oh! Looks like the UK Establishment clean up may not have been thorough enough!
Re Mikehillard @752: Abbott eventually did come around, although half heartedly, as with Gonski, FOFA and the NDIS. The IPA opposed it so I woukdn’t be surprised if the LNP find they need to ‘adjust’ it.
[Interesting, because I do call myself an atheist – but if God did appear to me I would change my behaviour. I would have strong evidence to work with.]
How would you know you weren’t just tripping, (Not necessarily on drugs), or that your brain chemistry had gone a bit funny or that you were having a psychotic episode?
Since we joined in the Heroic Defence of the Iraqi Peoples (except for Iraqi Sunnis and PKK Kurds) and since we joined in the Heroic Protection of Human Rights in Iraq what exactly has happened?
(1) All the countries that said they would commit troops to Iraq did not do so. UK said it would but has not done so, for example. The Australian ground role has suffered from mission creep such that it is probably only a matter of time before Australians get killed. Abbott did successfully fend off the US generals who wanted Australia to send more ground troops. Oh, and the unit we are training in order to defend human rights is a byword for murder and torture. Go figure. I am unaware of a single MSM journalist asking Abbott or Bishop why we are upskilling torturers if we are in Iraq to protect human rights and prevent genocide.
(2) The good Kurds, whom the Americans are arming with heavy weapons – against much opposition from the Iraqi Government – have made some leeway but are locked in a war of attrition near Irbil. Of course if ISIS is ever driven from Iraq then the good Kurds will become bad Kurds because the last thing the US wants to do is trigger a regional war involving all nations that have substantial Kurdish minorities… oh wait… three of the four are already engaged in Iraq War 3. What was Howard thinking?
(3) The bad Kurds have hung on in that town – what’s its name?
(4) The Iranians and some locals east of Bagdhad have winkled out ISIS from the province closest to the Iranian border.
(5) ISIS has doubled the amount of Syrian territory it controls. Spatially, this is bigger than their losses in Iraq.
(6) The Iraqis have stabilised the general situation in Iraq.
(7) ISIS has successfully owned some lone ranger terrorist attacks.
(8) ISIS has raided across the Saudi border, killing a Saudi general.
(9) Israel sends over the odd aerial death units to kill the major players in the Heshbollah death cult.
So, peoples, our Iraq War Three is going backwards.
Is it sheer brilliance on the part of Credlin and Simkin that no Australians have cottoned onto the backwards progress of our latest war?
[Fundamentalism is a subset of such dogmatism because it involves not only that the person insists their own understanding is perfect (which anyone might do) but also that their own understanding aligns with a literal interpretation of a pre-existing text – an existing fundamental, not one made up by the believer.]
KB – So Richard Dawkins might not be a fundamentalist but anyone who reads The God Delusion and treats it like gospel is?
(Sorry if this has been discussed, I’m still on page 12)
[I think that when there are broader terms like “dogmatist” or “idealogue” already available it is not necessary to widen the meaning of “fundamentalist”.]
I have to disagree with this because the people you refer to (dogmatists, ideologues and the holier than thou rationalists,) need the sort of kick in the backside a term like fundamentalism will provide them.
Fundamentalists carries some baggage as a word – and you’re just attempting to insulate those people from that baggage when they don’t deserve it.
Iraq seems to have vanished from the media.
Check out Robert Fisk’s latest article looking at the recent “excitement” in Yemen. Another tangled web/fuack up. Meanwhiles some serious shit has been going down in E. Ukraine as well.
[instead of the US trying to destroy both the Shia Alawite Assad regime and its Sunni Isis enemies in Syria, it now appears anxious to crush the Shia Zaidi Houthis and their Sunni al-Qaeda enemies in Yemen. The Saudis would have it no other way.]
The question is, who’d take up the (poisoned) chalice? Whomever it is, they’ll have an uphill fight persuading people that they’re not just like Gillard…
….oh, wait. I forget: The media will forget that Julia Gillard ever existed, rather than tarnish the LNP’s Great Hope when Abbott’s rolled.
All this leadershit stuff is doing some crazy things with Toxic Tones hair colouring.
If I was a wool classer I’d say it is running at a light tan colour at the moment. The greying around the upper ear is not as prominent as yesterday.
Maybe Tone could pinch some of Kevin Andrews’ hair product.
[All this leadershit stuff is doing some crazy things with Toxic Tones hair colouring.]
Maybe he does it himself – a bit of brown boot polish brushed in.
[And information can’t travel faster than light.]
Unless it does, and it might. Hence the term quantum entanglement, used to describe a phenomenon that suggests information may travel faster than the speed of light.
[ I would not be surprised to wake and find that Abbott had been Knifed over night.
It would not do much good the whole bunch of them are rabble. ]
Could happen, although the MSM will have a collective conniption fit if they get a “sudden” change like the Rudd / Gillard 2010 episode again that they don’t see coming. 🙂
Would be fascinating to see how the “new” cabinet would be made up if it goes down. Who’s in, who’s out, and whose precious policy positions get dumped or advanced. There is not enough popcorn in the world to do it justice.
[“He stopped the boats, now he’s going to stop the rorts.
New Social Services Minister Scott Morrison has issued a warning to would-be dole bludgers, Disability Support Pension rorters and terrorists who want to wage war while on government benefits: a tough new welfare cop is on the beat.
In one of his first broadcast interviews in his new portfolio, the former immigration minister told Sky News’ Graham Richardson that Australians “generally are quite happy to have a system that helps people who are genuinely in need and deserve our support”.
“But what they won’t cop, just like they won’t cop people coming on boats, is they’re not going to cop people who are going to rort that system,” he said. “So there does need to be strong welfare cop on the beat…I will be doing that because I want to make sure this system helps the people who most need it.””]
Scott Morrison is the star performer of this government, having achieved in less than 6 months what 4 Labor ministers prior couldn’t achieve in 6 Years and actually stopping the boats.
Having reaching his goals he set himself in Immigration… stopping the boats, turning back the boats and reintroducing TPV’s to deal with the 30,000 backlog left by Labor he has moved onto a new portfolio that a high altitude flyer such as himself needs to keep himself busy.
I personally think he should have gone into a new National Security portfolio similar to the homeland security ministry in the U.S, but this would have been my second pick. Morrison will get the job done as always.
I’m certain the Abbott government does not subscribe to inclusive prosperity.
[History tells us that societies succeed when the fruits of growth are broadly shared. Indeed, no society has ever succeeded without a large, prospering middle class* that embraced the idea of progress.]
I haven’t read the full report.
So TBA, i suppose Scoot Morrison would be your pick to replace Abbott after the Libs 2015 night of the long knives then??
All that success and yet, the Government poll ratings are in the toilet.
Morrison is strictly second grade.
Morrison, the Eichmann of the LNP.
Morriscum will “kill em” in his new leadership position. He has new Generals looking after his back.
[Firstly, I acknowledge the excellent post by Kevin Bonham over the page critiquing the misuse of the word fundamentalism to describe hectoring atheists. … There is nothing in robust science that is analogous to fundamentalism.]
Its a bit sly to equate the idea of hectoring atheists with robust science or to suggest that criticising atheists as fundamentalist is criticising science Fran.
[and I’m arguing that there’s no such thing as a “fundamentalist” atheist because the foundation of atheism is rejecting as unsupportable the assertion that a god, or a set of divine rules for living, exists.]
PB – based on what?
Are you suggesting the only way to make meaningful statements about life, or reality or whatever is by using science?
If so, what about poetry, music or other forms of art?
Also if so will you please speak in mathematics or at least e prime from now on. In fact could everyone at least try e prime for a while. it might make this website a bit less aggro.
Re Matt @762: if the Libs decide they can’t win with Abbott, they’ll ditch him. Murdoch will provide cover snd boost the new leader.
Personally I am a solid believer in the spaghetti monster. May he bless your meatballs.
[Abbott eventually did come around, although half heartedly]
Too many LNP ministers threatened to cross the floor it seems.
Abbott out, Bishop, J. to become PM. Election June. Just saying.
For some reason the back benchers are none too keen on conscription into Abbott’s Judean People’s Front suicide squad.
[(2) The good Kurds, whom the Americans are arming with heavy weapons – against much opposition from the Iraqi Government – have made some leeway but are locked in a war of attrition near Irbil. Of course if ISIS is ever driven from Iraq then the good Kurds will become bad Kurds because the last thing the US wants to do is trigger a regional war involving all nations that have substantial Kurdish minorities… oh wait… three of the four are already engaged in Iraq War 3. What was Howard thinking?
(3) The bad Kurds have hung on in that town – what’s its name?]
Why don’t you just admit that whatever else might be wrong with the operation, it has in fact had the positive effect of helping the Kurds? It’s the absoluteness of your certainty regarding every complex question that makes your excursions on foreign policy so insufferable.
All that success and yet, the Government poll ratings are in the toilet.”]
Tough decisions are having to make in regards to the budget.
I was having a think about this the other night. It would be much more easier.. incredibly easy to just ignore the $300B debt Labor left us with and do what Labor does and put it all on the credit card… and let someone smarter, wiser and more grown up in the future deal with the ballooning debt.
Think about it… the Coalition really don’t need to pay down Labors $300B in debt and try and get the budget back in surplus. They don’t. They can just continue on the Labor path and hand out $1000 Plasma TV cheques and they will be in poll heaven. Isn’t that the easy thing to do? Isn’t that what you want them to do? The easy path? Why go through all this pain.. just spend spend spend… put it on the taxpayer credit card… and then spend some more. Simples.
It’s a shame that in this country making tough decisions are punished while making gutless decisions and spending like a drunken sailor and making it someone in the futures problem is rewarded.
[. They can just continue on the Labor path and hand out $1000 Plasma TV cheques ]
You are an excellent performance artist 😆 Keep up the good work.
[Abbott’s Judean People’s Front suicide squad]
That’ll show them. 😀
I’m sorry TBA – but what are you smoking?
The debt is based almost entirely on a drop in revenues because Howard was paying people $5000 to have kids, promised deep and unsustainable tax cuts, and promised superannuation concessions that now, cost the Budget annually, the same as the aged pension.
Now, Labor, stupidly, kept a number of these things.
Howard and Costello were the ones who raided the piggy-bank to bribe the battlers in 2001, 2004 and tried again in 2007. It’s called a structural deficit. And again, while Labor should have scaled more of it back… it’s not of their creation.
It should also be noted that the Hockey gave $9 billion to the reserve bank that they didn’t ask for, sorry… he borrowed an additional $9 billion to give to the Reserve. They gave up billions in revenue for the carbon price (which was working… shock upon shock) and the LNP kept all the sweeteners intact… with no revenues to cover it.
It’s cute to parrot Lib talking points and pass them off as commentary… but it’s would be great that you put things in their correct context. The LNP has massively increased the both debt and the deficit.
Only the debt and deficit have increased substantially under LNP, unemployment has increased, growth is down and generally, the economic outlook is pretty shite.
Every BBQ in Australia is saying Abbott is dead and needs to be moved on.
You can hold on tight to your dreams, but the reality is the Libs are gone.
Not only Fisk on the tangled web on the ME. Check out Paul McGeough’s piece in the SMH today.
ISIS or whoever they are today are not the only people into beheading. But when the Saudis do it it’s ok.
I posted this some time ago. Perhaps some may find it interesting.
[For all these theoretical ideas, proving that the universe is a quantum computer is a difficult task. Even so, there is one observation that supports the idea that the universe is fundamentally composed of information. In 2008, the GEO600 gravitational wave detector in Hannover, Germany, picked up an anomalous signal suggesting that space-time is pixellated.
This is exactly what would be expected in a ‘holographic’ universe, where 3D reality is actually a projection of information encoded on the two-dimensional surface of the boundary of the universe.
This bizarre idea arose from an argument over black holes. One of the fundamental tenets of physics is that information cannot be destroyed, but a black hole appears to violate this by swallowing things that contain information then gradually evaporating away.
What happens to that information was the subject of a long debate between Stephen Hawking and several of his peers. In the end, Hawking lost the debate, conceding that information is imprinted on the event horizon that defines the black hole’s boundary and escapes as the black hole evaporates. This led theoretical physicists Leonard Susskind and Gerard’t Hooft to propose that the entire universe could also hold information at its boundary-with the consequence that our reality could be the projection of that information into the space within the boundary. If this conjecture is true, reality is like the image of Princess Leia projected by R2D2 in Star Wars: a hologram.]
[“You are an excellent performance artist 😆 Keep up the good work.”]
Didn’t Rudd hit record high polling numbers after handing out $1000 Plasma TV cheques? Honest question.
Seriously I don’t know why the Coalition is putting itself through all this pain trying to pay down Labors debt. Nobody seems appreciative of their efforts, they should just continue on with the Labor spending spree and put it all on the taxpayer Credit Card. I mean why bother trying to make tough choices, the media are feral(at least 1-2 anti-Gov pieces a day in Fairfax) the punters such as yourself don’t appreciate any hard decisions being made so I reckon they should just say stuff it and spend up big. This is seemingly what people want so it should be given to them(consquences as well).
The reality is that when hard decisions are made in this country they are punished for it and it’s a big shame.
@786 – sorry, should have added, that the Howard/Costello free for all, was based on an unsustainable revenue base.
[ISIS or whoever they are today are not the only people into beheading. But when the Saudis do it it’s ok]
A few days ago this horror occurred. ISIS committing acts like this we are told makes them eeeevil personified but as it was one of our maaates SFA.
We support the pricks that fund the same groups we claim are a threat to civilisation itself.
[ Police in Saudi Arabia publicly beheaded a woman in Mecca last week, after she was dragged through the street and held down by four police officers.
A video showed how it took three blows to complete the execution, while the woman screamed “I did not kill. I did not kill,” according to the report]
[Tin foil hat time? I don’t know… like I said, just musing.]
Gecko “the rich”* always conspire to steal other people’s money, even or especially from other rich people (but everyone else too). At least it sure seems that way from here. I assume they conspire to steal as much of what they can that isn’t money too, including land, culture, the minutes of peoples lives and the products of their hard work. Sometimes they get busted and do time. Other times don’t. Sometimes their “conspiring” isn’t actually illegal.
But I think what is happening here is kind of different. Its not so much a conspiracy as a tacit agreement based on mutual recognition of what is in certain people’s best interest (a type of groupthink). They might conspire, or even just talk privately, about how to achieve these interests, then lobby vigourously for them in the media and in private. As well as doing other stuff.
Last year a couple of academics published a study that claimed the US was not a functioning democracy. The term “Oligarchy” was used, but I think they actually meant the political decision making process only reflected the needs and wants of The USA’s 1%. Apparently it went viral, it was probably discussed here.
There is an interview with one of the people behind it and a copy of the whole thing here.
*ie some people, most of them with shitloads of money.
Funny how the debt and deficit disaster and the budget emergency were never mentioned before the election.
All we had to do, your Tory mates told us , was put the adults in charge, get rid of the carbon tax, stop the boats , cut the waste and we would be in nirvana. There would be no cuts, no new taxes and business couldn’t wait to open their wallets to invest.
Where, pray tell, did it all go wrong?
To Be Advised
[Didn’t Rudd hit record high polling numbers after handing out $1000 Plasma TV cheques? Honest question.]
You fail even at the first step – the amount given back to taxpayers to stimulate the economy was $900.
[The federal government’s recent television advertisement spruiking the benefits of the proposed changes to higher education have raised the ire of not only the opposition but also taxpayers who have reportedly forked out A$8 million for the campaign.]
Feel the burn
[The Bureau of Meteorology warns that the remote West Australian towns of Marble Bar and Newman could face 50 degree temperatures on Friday]
What made you come back Truthy?
And the rest is even more nonsensical.