Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a strong result for Labor last week, Essential Research’s generally slow-moving fortnightly rolling average records a solid tick to the Coalition.

Essential Research now has two weeks of polling to rub a fortnightly rolling average together, and the addition of this week’s sample to last week’s result causes two-party preferred to tick a point in the Coalition’s favour, from 54-46 to 53-47. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor, Greens and Palmer United respectively steady on 40%, 10% and 2%. Further questions find skepticism about Australian involvement in Iraq, the ABC and the High Court rated most trusted out of a specified list of “institutions and organisations” (though it doesn’t include police and defence forces, which might have rated higher), and the medical profession trusted in use of personal information but social media sites not so much. Also featured are interesting questions on internet and social media use, and a less interesting one on sports events.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 19
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  1. Re True Blue Aussie: I assume that the ‘plasma TV cheques’ is a reference to the Rudd Government stimulus program in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. Australia was the only developed nation to avoid recession, with unemployment peaking under 6% , rather than double digits lime many OECD countries.

    What level of unemployment would have been acceptable to keep the budget in balance?

    And why is Abbott attacking students, pensioners, the sick and disabled to rein in expenditure, while leaving super tax concessions to millionaires, tax loopholes for multinationals and welfare handouts to cherry-picking elite private schools and private health fund members untouched?

    Abbott is on an ideological crusade to remake the country along lines much more friendly to the LNP’s bankrollers.

  2. Ctar

    The other thing about the so called “plasma cheques” is that my son was working for Coles at the time and in his store they were heading for the worst Christmas in years.

    The week the cheques went out sales took off and they made budget through to Christmas.

    A lot of the “plasma cheques” were spent on Christmas cheer and kept people in work.

  6. [The week the cheques went out sales took off and they made budget through to Christmas.
    A lot of the “plasma cheques” were spent on Christmas cheer and kept people in work]

    Which is exactly what was needed and exactly when – if it had been delayed a few months and consumer confidence had plummeted the 900 would largely have gone into mortgages and debt reduction which would have largely defeated the purpose.

    I laugh at the morons who talk as if it was a failure or waste of money. like hockey on income tax they either have no clue at all or are telling an hilariously stupid lie.

  7. Ctar

    Exactly. Even people who sell plasma TVs at Harvey Norman are entitled to have the government look after them.

    The Tories of course would only be interested in looking after their millionaire mate Gerry Harvey.

  10. William

    [(2) The good Kurds, whom the Americans are arming with heavy weapons – against much opposition from the Iraqi Government – have made some leeway but are locked in a war of attrition near Irbil. Of course if ISIS is ever driven from Iraq then the good Kurds will become bad Kurds because the last thing the US wants to do is trigger a regional war involving all nations that have substantial Kurdish minorities… oh wait… three of the four are already engaged in Iraq War 3. What was Howard thinking?

    (3) The bad Kurds have hung on in that town – what’s its name?

    Why don’t you just admit that whatever else might be wrong with the operation, it has in fact had the positive effect of helping the Kurds? It’s the absoluteness of your certainty regarding every complex question that makes your excursions on foreign policy so insufferable.]

    I am happy to acknowledge that the good Kurds are enjoying themselves ATM. But.

    There is an old prediction of mine that one of the things the West will do as it retreats from the ME for the last time is betray the Kurds. If, instead of using the Kurds for its purposes while it suits them – which is now, the West sets up and supports a Kurdish state I will accept your ‘insufferable’ comment. Just this once.

  11. [No either or needed it is both.]

    You may well be right. I remember mocking American friends with how dumb bush was and how poorly having him as president hurt their nation. Having a treasurer with the full resources of the national treasury at his disposal not able to grasp the very basics of income tax reflects pretty poorly on us. If he can’t get that right how could anyone take him seriously on anything. Labor finance spokespeople should start dismissing everything they say with a line something like ”well this is the govt whose treasure doesn’t understand basic income tax I don’t think anything they say could be taken seriously.

    Just imagine if the man who saved us from the Great Recession had said something so stupid and so wrong.

  17. [Rates Analyst

    Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    PeeBee

    I’m far from an expert on this, but my understanding is that Newtonian Physics and Newtonian ideas about Gravity are actually in conflict with the Theory of Relativity.

    Newton’s ideas weren’t just extended, but shown to be actively false by Einstien. Now, on the other hand, Newton is right for all “real-world” applications since the difference between Newton and Einstien only shows up when dealing with either very tiny or very large things.

    I think the conflict is that Newtonian gravity suggests gravity varies with the distance between the objects. But that implies that if gravity is measured you can convey information about mass faster than light. And information can’t travel faster than light.]

    Newton false? No.

    Einstein showed Newtonian mechanics is true but only at low speeds.

    In Einstein’s equations there is the relativistic term 1/(c-v).
    c = speed of light; v = your speed

    c is a very big number

    if v is small; walking, driving, even flying in plane;
    then c-v is still a very big number and 1/(a very big number) is approximately 0.

    If you apply this to Einstein’s equations they collapse very nicely into Newton’s.

    This 1/(c-v) also gives the limiting factor to Einstein.
    As your velocity increases towards the speed of light (c), c-v approaches 0. You cannot divide by zero and get a sensible answer. 1/0 equals infinity.

    And so according to Einstein it is not possible to travel at speeds at or in excess of the speed of light.

    To sum up Newton explains what’s happening at low speeds while Einstein explains what’s happening at any speed up to the speed of light.

    So Newton is not false. Why do you think they still teach it at University.

  18. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 8:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Feel the burn

    The Bureau of Meteorology warns that the remote West Australian towns of Marble Bar and Newman could face 50 degree temperatures on Friday
    ]

    At least the women will save money on electricity (thanks to no carbon tax) when they do the ironing in 50 degree heat.

  19. rossmcg

    Thanks, when I bought it I was a new guitar player who knew bugger all. With hindsight, I managed to fluke a good buy. The Tele has been a great guitar to own and play.

    CTar1

    Commiserations all round lol

  20. CTar1

    [I missed out as I was a UK taxpayer that year. :sob:]
    Well ya wouldn’t have been able to fit those giant “$1000 plasma TVs” wot we all ,apparewntly, got into the Barbican lifts anyway 🙂

  21. [“And information can’t travel faster than light.”
    Unless it does, and it might. Hence the term quantum entanglement, used to describe a phenomenon that suggests information may travel faster than the speed of light.]

    Quantum entanglement does not involve information travelling faster than the speed of light.

    The information in the system travels as the entangled wavefunction propagates through space (which happens … {drumroll} … at the speed of light).

    The collapse of the wavefunction appears to happen non-locally, which is something of a mystery for classical/relativistic thinking, but this doesn’t actually involve transmission of information.

    Quantum teleportation experiments – which do use entanglement to transfer information – rely on a secondary classical communication channel in which information is propagated at boring old c.

  22. [ It’s cute to parrot Lib talking points and pass them off as commentary… ]

    I suspect that TBA is not actually TrueBlueAussie but ToBeAdvised.

    Posts the mindless talking points of the day.

    Tabitha was better. 🙂

  23. [If I remember correctly, I bought my secondhand Telecaster (guitar) with the $900 stimulus payment I received. ]

    I think I bought an item of clothing, but can’t remember now what it was.

  25. [ What level of unemployment would have been acceptable to keep the budget in balance?

    And why is Abbott attacking students, pensioners, the sick and disabled to rein in expenditure, while leaving super tax concessions to millionaires, tax loopholes for multinationals and welfare handouts to cherry-picking elite private schools and private health fund members untouched? ]

    S777, that is mean. Soliciting actual opinion from a bot just makes them look like more of a twat. Shame on you.

  26. PvO has had some advice for Abbott today (again):

    [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 8h 8 hours ago
    John Howard used talk back radio, taking the calls of voters, to aplomb…Tony Abbott by the looks of it should run a country mile from it!]

    Mumble pointed out that Abbott speaking to his base is likely a sign of a weakening of his leadership, not a sign of strength.

    Roll on the start of the parliamentary year!

  27. We bought gravel to fill in hole in ground in driveway.
    10 tonnes of the stuff.
    Actually to help fireproof the house.

    The mob I got it from were most appreciative of the Rudd stimulus, the driver who delivered the gravel had been looking at being laid off until people, like us, spent money on home improvements.

  28. poroti

    [got into the Barbican lifts anyway]

    A obscure fact that you’ve hit on.

    Smart design – if you can fit something into a Barbican lift then you can get it into the flat and move it around.

  31. [Martin B

    Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 9:13 pm]

    Yes, l was just focusing on the Newton – Einstein mechanism side of their comment.

  34. Now for the blame game?

    [

    Training equipment left on a Sydney ferry has been blamed for a security scare which sparked the evacuation of Circular Quay.

    The precinct was put in lockdown on Thursday as police investigated a suspicious package found on a ferry from Balmain, docked at Wharf 5.

    A crew member found bottles with protruding wires and filled with nails and liquid and raised the alarm.

    The bomb squad was called to the scene to investigate but the area was declared safe a short time later and Circular Quay was reopened.

    The ABC has revealed the bottles were training equipment and were meant to be used in a security exercise.

    A source said the equipment did not belong to police.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-22/circular-quay-reopens-after-suspicious-object-found-on-ferry/6034796

  35. It’s probably been covered already, but if the best reason Tony gives for him not being replaced is the old , Disunity is death routine, you KNOW he is in trouble & on the way out

  36. Hilton bombing almost all over again…
    The ABC has revealed the bottles were training equipment and were meant to be used in a security exercise.

  37. Do the Coalition supporters agree with banking giant HSBC?

    [Govt urged to spend to stimulate economy

    BANKING giant HSBC has slammed the federal government’s budget stance, telling the Abbott government to start helping economic growth rather than hindering it.

    THE bank’s chief economist Paul Bloxham says it is imperative the government spends money instead of cutting back, and takes advantage of low interest rates to invest in infrastructure to help stimulate economic growth.

    The government’s talk of a “budget emergency” last year had unnecessarily damaged consumer confidence, while doing nothing to improve the budget deficit, he said.

    “This is a very big political challenge for a government that’s been running a line that we have a budget emergency,” Mr Bloxham told reporters on Thursday.

    “We don’t have a budget emergency.”]

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/govt-urged-to-spend-to-stimulate-economy/story-e6frfkur-1227193599791

  38. Hmmm. No respite in sight for TA. Looks like PvO is going to call for a leadership change this weekend.

    [Jim Robson ‏@t34620689 8h8 hours ago
    @vanOnselenP surely the argument that the Rudd coup didn’t work for labor should not mean Abbott is not accountable or not replaceable

    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 8h8 hours ago
    @t34620689 well said. His arrogance on that point is the problem…my Sunday column is to be on EXACTLY that]

  42. Sceptic

    [Today Mr Abbott sent a shot across the bow of anyone in his team who believed change would lift the Government’s fortunes.

    “If there is one lesson to be learnt from the fate of the former government in Canberra, maybe even the former government in Victoria, is you do not change leaders. You rally behind someone and you stick to the plan and we’ve got a good plan.]

  43. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 8h8 hours ago
    @t34620689 well said. His arrogance on that point is the problem…]

    More like desperation.

  46. Just Me:

    Someone commented here the other day that Abbott being replaced may well trigger a kind of domino effect of Credlin and her federal party director husband (whose name escapes me) being removed also.

    With all this chitter chatter leaking into the media, you can just imagine the games being played behind the scenes!

  47. victoria:

    Thought this was a cute jibe too.

    [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 4h 4 hours ago
    Maybe Tony Abbott should hurry up and reform the party rules in line with Labor’s to protect the leader till after the election?]

  48. [Yes, l was just focusing on the Newton – Einstein mechanism side of their comment.]

    As I remarked before, there is a large semantic element here; the relationship can be described reasonably in different ways.

    It is interesting and important that the relativistic revolution left the established framework, for established problems, was left basically untouched.
    But personally I think that describing relativity as just Newton+ goes too far in the other direction. There were things, like the relativity of simultaneity, that were genuinely shocking and counterposed to Newtonian assumptions.

  50. victoria

    What was rooly funny was how it was implicit that he admitted to be wRONg but struggled “manfully” to avoid saying so directly.

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