Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a strong result for Labor last week, Essential Research’s generally slow-moving fortnightly rolling average records a solid tick to the Coalition.

Essential Research now has two weeks of polling to rub a fortnightly rolling average together, and the addition of this week’s sample to last week’s result causes two-party preferred to tick a point in the Coalition’s favour, from 54-46 to 53-47. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor, Greens and Palmer United respectively steady on 40%, 10% and 2%. Further questions find skepticism about Australian involvement in Iraq, the ABC and the High Court rated most trusted out of a specified list of “institutions and organisations” (though it doesn’t include police and defence forces, which might have rated higher), and the medical profession trusted in use of personal information but social media sites not so much. Also featured are interesting questions on internet and social media use, and a less interesting one on sports events.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [The collapse of the wavefunction appears to happen non-locally, which is something of a mystery for classical/relativistic thinking, but this doesn’t actually involve transmission of information.]

    Doesn’t it? How is that not information?

  2. If they change leaders they’ll have to go to an election surely? All those claims of illegitimacy they made & all that?

    Btw, I don’t like to skyte, ( 🙂 ) but I called this on the last sitting day last year. If they didn’t dump him then it would be the first sitting day of this year.

  3. Silent

    The tories are masters of spin. And whatever they do will be backed 100 per cent by their cheerleaders in the media.

    Any comparisons with Labor’s disunity will be dismissed with a sneer.,

  4. J341983 @ 903

    They can have a regular Reps election at any time. They just can’t take the Senate with them. Either way there would be no point as the public would be rightly suspicious of an election called early.

  5. @905 … ugh, I think you’re right. But that still means a Senate election held separately later on and that rarely helps the Government.

  6. I have always said Abbott would not easy, unless they have some goods on him, which is likely, and/or the inducement is a whopper.

    If he gets torn out fighting and kicking, he will make the ALP’s past woes look like a nap on a stack of goose-down mattresses.

    By the way, was that a bit of black right eye or runny makeup Abbott was showing during the vision of that radio interview, just down from the bridge of his ugly nose?

    Did Cabinet discussions get somewhat vigorous or did Margie finally woman-up and pick up a rolling pin?

  7. If they dump him they HAVE to call an election. WE didn’t vote for this. Whomever wins the ballot doesn’t have the will of the electorate behind them.

    That’s the line Labor have to take. When Gillard took over she called an election & rightly so.

  8. [But that still means a Senate election held separately later on and that rarely helps the Government.]

    Unless they have the subsequent House election early so the two can coincide. There could then be a normal election in June 2017. There were early elections for similar reasons in 1977 and 1984, albeit earlier than they needed to be in both cases. The 1983 double dissolution, which Fraser unhelpfully called in the early part of the year out of desperation to get the jump on Labor, meant the Senate terms were backdated to the middle of the year previous year, causing a half-Senate election to be required by mid-1985. A House-only election in the first half of this year would be no worse than that.

  9. I wonder if Abbott might be tempted down the path that was alleged to be behind the early election in Queensland.

    Remember Scuttlebutt was that Newman went early to beat the plotters.

    Now that would be an interesting development.

  10. [bemused

    Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 10:27 pm

    Hi Barney, I’ve been puzzling over your expression 1/(C-v) and how it fits into Newtons equations.

    Can you explain please?]

    It’s a part of Einstein’s equations and describes how the relativistic effect changes with your speed.

    At low speeds this effect is negligible and what’s left are Newton’s equations.

    As you increase your speed this effect becomes significant so Newton is no longer valid and you need to go to Relativity to get your answer.

  11. [ They can have a regular Reps election at any time. They just can’t take the Senate with them. Either way there would be no point as the public would be rightly suspicious of an election called early. ]

    The Libs may think it worth losing a HoR only election on the assumption that the ALP would have everything blocked in the Senate. Now i think that would be a silly assumption to make as the ALP have a history of negotiating things through and actually governing when they dont control the Senate.

    And before anyone sneers and says how stupid the idea is……..this is the Abbott Govt i’m talking about.

  12. 911

    Re-coordinating the Senate and House elections was, I believe, the stated reason that the 1955 election was called only a year after the 1954 House only election.

    It is however widely suspected that the split in the ALP may have been a factor in the calling of that election.

  13. [ Remember Scuttlebutt was that Newman went early to beat the plotters. ]

    Interesting thought when you consider that the LNP in QLD was trending badly in the polls and now seems to be pulling a bit ahead??

    Problem with that scenario though is that the QLD govt has NOT been solidly behind in the polls for over a year, like the Abbott Govt has been. As much as Newman is reviled by some, and although the two have marked similarities, Newmans Govt is not as unpopular as Abbotts Govt.

    And FFS, two “embattled” Liberal leaders taking to and election because their positions are in danger, within weeks of each other?? Nah, Abbott and the Libs would be even more Fwarked in ways that even the nasty private schoolboys in their midst cant imagine if they do that.

  14. I love the GG headline. Pretty much sums up where this inquiry is going to go.

    [ Time to bust workplace myths: sweeping IR review ]

    Its got a real “Thunderbirds are Go” kind of feel to it. 🙂

    [ He said the inquiry would examine potential alternatives to the minimum wage including government funded “in work benefits’’ such as an earned tax credit which offers a credit for low-paid workers who pay no tax on their income. ]

    Oh joy. New wage subsidies funded by the taxpayer so that employers can make more profits. Good thing we dont have anything like a BUDGET EMERGENCY isn’t it?

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s going to be a bit of a slog this morning as I battle with download speed throttled back to dial-up speed as I reached my BigPond data limit. There are three free top-ups available every year but unfortunately they are doing a big system upgrade overnight and my high speed hasn’t kicked in yet.

    More waste by the look of it.
    Europe unveils a stimulus program.
    Here we go! WorkChoices rise from the grave and out of the urn!.
    Is democracy for sale on penalty rates?,7283
    I think Hicks’ lawyers might have something to say about this.
    Another poll-driven back down by Abbott.
    Mark Kenny and Liberal Party mutiny talk. And Abbott fronts the National Press Club on Feb 2. That’s something for him to look forward to.–is-mutiny-on-the-horizon-20150122-12vpaa.html
    More from Kenny as he picks on Abbott’s constant blaming of others.
    Abbott has lost the respect of a number of back benchers. It’s a good read.
    Somewhere in the multiverse Abbott is not as unpopular as cancer.

  16. “”- LNP can’t govern themselves, can’t govern the country.
    – it’s the policies that suck, not just the leader “”

    That’s IT in a nutshell!

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