ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

After a dead heat in a ReachTEL poll conducted on the evening the election was announced, a second poll for the Seven Network finds the Liberal National Party moving ahead.

The Seven Network reports that the second ReachTEL poll of the Queensland election suggests the tide is going in the Liberal National Party’s direction, which is consistent with what I’ve been able to observe of the campaign. Whereas the first poll on the night of the election announcement had it dead level, this poll has the LNP leading 52-48 from primary votes of 42.0% for the LNP (up 1.7%), 36.7% for Labor (down 1.4%), 8.4% to the Greens (up 0.8%) and 5.2% to Palmer United (down 0.9%). Two-thirds expect the LNP to win, and a question on preferred LNP leader if Campbell Newman loses Ashgrove has Fiona Simpson moving ahead of Lawrence Springborg, with likely nominee Tim Nicholls well down the list.

UPDATE: Full results here. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 1635.

UPDATE 2: For the purposes of illustrating a point I’m making in an article I’m writing for Crikey, I feature below calculations of the LNP’s two-party vote at the federal election transposed on to state election boundaries. In the other two columns are the 2012 state result (asterisk indicating an estimate because no LNP-versus-Labor count was conducted), and what I’ve called “SSD”, or “standardised state difference”. This equals the relevant electorate’s deviation from the mean at the state election, minus the equivalent result for the federal election. So for example, Nanango, Kawana and Burnett were seats where the LNP had relatively stronger results at the state than the federal election; Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave and Kerry Shine in Toowoomba North appear to have been two Labor members who performed particularly well in spite of everything; and Mansfield, ever the bellwether, was bang on the statewide average both times. There have been a few seats where I deemed the state 2PP to be unestimateable (inestimable?), and you might well think there should have been a few more.

Federal State SSD
Albert
59.8%
61.9%
-1.2%
Algester
51.5%
59.1%
4.2%
Ashgrove
56.4%
55.7%
-2.3%
Aspley
57.2%
71.7%
10.6%
Barron River
60.0%
59.5%
-2.6%
Beaudesert
69.0%
77.1%*
8.7%
Brisbane Central
53.0%
54.9%
0.5%
Broadwater
70.2%
61.3%
-10.0%
Buderim
71.3%
76.0%
4.6%
Bulimba
51.5%
50.1%
-4.9%
Bundaberg
58.2%
68.2%
6.6%
Bundamba
38.8%
48.2%
5.0%
Burdekin
61.0%
71.5%*
7.3%
Burleigh
66.2%
61.0%
-7.0%
Burnett
63.8%
76.1%*
10.8%
Cairns
59.9%
58.9%
-4.3%
Callide
72.9%
78.2%*
5.0%
Caloundra
65.8%
71.2%
6.3%
Capalaba
54.0%
53.7%
-3.7%
Chatsworth
57.4%
64.1%
3.4%
Clayfield
60.3%
70.6%
8.0%
Cleveland
63.9%
68.1%
1.4%
Condamine
78.2%
80.9%*
2.9%
Cook
55.1%
53.4%
-6.3%
Coomera
68.4%
73.3%
3.9%
Currumbin
62.7%
70.2%
6.4%
Dalrymple
67.0%
Everton
60.5%
63.2%
-0.2%
Ferny Grove
59.0%
59.5%
-1.6%
Gaven
63.3%
69.1%
3.6%
Gladstone
45.3%
Glass House
64.3%
70.4%
7.3%
Greenslopes
54.4%
52.5%
-4.8%
Gregory
69.8%
75.5%
4.9%
Gympie
69.0%
76.1%*
7.9%
Hervey Bay
64.3%
71.7%
5.4%
Hinchinbrook
73.7%
73.1%*
-2.0%
Inala
36.3%
43.1%
1.3%
Indooroopilly
65.8%
69.5%
3.4%
Ipswich
41.7%
54.2%
8.1%
Ipswich West
49.0%
57.2%
4.3%
Kallangur
54.1%
62.4%
5.4%
Kawana
66.2%
76.3%
11.7%
Keppel
56.0%
56.4%
-2.4%
Lockyer
66.6%
71.3%*
5.5%
Logan
49.0%
54.8%
2.0%
Lytton
50.2%
51.6%
-1.9%
Mackay
55.4%
49.5%
-9.0%
Mansfield
56.3%
61.1%
1.8%
Maroochydore
66.1%
70.9%
4.1%
Maryborough
64.9%
Mermaid Beach
73.6%
76.0%
0.8%
Mirani
55.7%
61.2%
3.2%
Moggill
69.8%
73.9%
3.0%
Morayfield
57.4%
55.6%
-4.9%
Mount Coot-tha
57.5%
55.4%
-2.1%
Mount Isa
69.8%
56.0%*
-15.7%
Mount Ommaney
59.3%
66.5%
4.1%
Mudgeeraba
72.0%
75.9%
2.4%
Mulgrave
59.7%
48.9%
-14.9%
Mundingburra
58.3%
60.2%
-0.9%
Murrumba
51.2%
59.5%
3.0%
Nanango
70.9%
82.8%*
12.0%
Nicklin
64.4%
Noosa
69.1%
77.5%*
8.2%
Nudgee
47.4%
53.1%
1.3%
Pine Rivers
57.3%
63.7%
3.8%
Pumicestone
59.8%
62.1%
-1.0%
Redcliffe
50.2%
60.1%
4.4%
Redlands
63.6%
71.1%
4.5%
Rockhampton
47.8%
46.1%
-5.8%
Sandgate
45.6%
52.9%
2.8%
South Brisbane
44.2%
45.3%
-0.4%
Southern Downs
76.2%
80.1%*
4.5%
Southport
67.5%
64.7%
-4.6%
Springwood
57.9%
65.4%
4.6%
Stafford
54.3%
57.1%
-0.5%
Stretton
50.7%
59.6%
5.3%
Sunnybank
51.5%
60.2%
4.7%
Surfers Paradise
74.5%
79.5%
2.9%
Thuringowa
61.6%
61.3%*
-2.3%
Toowoomba North
67.5%
59.6%
-9.0%
Toowoomba South
68.4%
71.6%
2.4%
Townsville
58.5%
54.8%
-6.0%
Warrego
78.2%
81.0%*
2.2%
Waterford
51.2%
51.0%
-3.9%
Whitsunday
62.8%
60.7%
-4.0%
Woodridge
36.1%
44.2%
4.1%
Yeerongpilly
45.6%
51.4%
3.7%

UPDATE 3: And below are full results for the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which I don’t think have been published. Swings from 2012 election noted in italics.

LNP
ALP
GRN
PUP
LNP 2PP
Sample
Cairns
40
44
8
5
47
610
-3
+17
+1
-11.9
Barron River
43
42
10
5
50
700
-3
+14
+1
-9.5
Mulgrave
31
52
4
5
39
600
-1
+18
-9.9
Greenslopes
36
50
12
41
511
-12
+11
-1
-11.5
Pumicestone
46
40
7
3
52
567
-7
+10
+1
-10.1
Mundingburra
43
44
8
5
49
644
+18
+3
-11.2
Thuringowa
38
42
5
5
48
696
+2
+15
+1
-8.7
Townsville
33
46
10
6
42
611
-6
+17
+2
-12.8

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

176 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Tetsujin@149


    So, it seems to me that there aren’t any strong reasons to outright reject the Morgan QLD poll because “Morgan polls have a pro-ALP bias”.

    Yes it is important to distinguish between different Morgan methods here.

    Morgan’s state polls are conducted by SMS polling which does not so far seem to have an ALP bias, whatever other problems it may have. It does seem to have a pro-Greens bias.

    Morgan’s national polls are currently conducted by a combination of face-to-face and SMS polling, with the face-to-face component apparently causing a skew of 1.5 points to Labor (based on last-election preferences, more by respondent-allocated preferences). When Morgan used to do pure face-to-face polling the skew was even greater.

    Further confusing things, Morgan has a habit of switching to different polling methods or combinations in the last weeks of federal election campaigns.

  2. [“Newman suing Alan Jones for defamation. An oldie but a goodie – keeps it all “sub judice” doesn’t it so Newman will be able to say “I can’t comment as it is before the courts”. Jones has obviously touched a very sensitive nerve!”]

    The stupidity of Alan Jones and perhaps your comment is that Campbell Newman works for the state of Queensland, not for Alan Jones.

    If he made decisions based on what Alan Jones… or Clive Palmers of the world wanted… or anyone else put to him, he would be in direct violation of his duties to the state of Queensland.

    My guess will be an out of court settlement will be made to Newman after the election from Jones.

  3. [If he made decisions based on what Alan Jones… or Clive Palmers of the world wanted… or anyone else put to him, he would be in direct violation of his duties to the state of Queensland.

    My guess will be an out of court settlement will be made to Newman after the election from Jones.]

    What a load of rubbish. Where is the free speech LNP now. What hypocrites, what awful governments.

  4. I don’t believe free speech has ever allowed a person (Jones) to continually allege another person (Newman) is corrupt by receiving paper bags full of money if it is not true. The person being accused has the right to test the allegation in court and the person making the allegation an obligation to provide the proof.

    Those are very serious allegations that are being continually repeated every day for an hour in peak radio time.

    Newman is being asked to comment however if the allegations are not true how do you answer them short of forcing the accuser to put forward the evidence?

  5. 1934pc that is what Fraser and Bligh said in 2012 and we know how that ended up. But it’s politics so I have come to accept anything is fair game as long as it isn’t done to your side.

    I understand the Libs can hardly complain given what Gillard was subjected to over an extended period however I don’t understand how the same people who were horrified by what happened to Gillard applaud when it happens to the other side.

    I’m sure there is a term that covers that somewhere 🙂

  6. And a politician going to court is a different ballgame, similar to where Royal Commissions tend to find something unintended. Our thin skinned treasure[r] may be in some trouble over the north Sydney forum now that Fairfax’s lawyers are demanding some serious information about the backers

  7. I doubt there’s much to Jones’ claims, if only because someone with as much history as does of brainlessly running his mouth deserves zero benefit of the doubt.

    I’ve heard lots of stories from Laborites about corruption from other well known Queensland political identities, but Newman’s not got any more than your standard dirty politics bodies buried that I’ve heard, and there’s precious little capital in that.

    I suspect that Jones is just upset that Newman doesn’t pay his agenda the appropriate amount of spineless deference as he gets south of the border. But then Queenslanders don’t really give a toss about Jones or his tantrums.

  8. “”If we keep going back we could probably end up fighting over cave paintings.””

    We know from the past that the Liberals and Nationals in Qld have FORM!.
    And it appears to stick!.

  9. “”Federal donor records show Ramsay Healthcare, which has increasingly taken public patients at its Greenslopes hospital in Brisbane and elsewhere, gave $300,000 to the federal Liberal party and $10,000 to the LNP between 2011 and 2013. “”

    On and on it goes!.

  10. From the same article: [“Chris Davis says the government cut waiting lists by ‘contracting out an enormous amount to the big private groups, many of whom are also LNP donors’”]

    What about the ones that didn’t pay any donations? The cheap skates are still getting work!

    Wheres the story? Do Labor never use any services from any business that has ever donated money to them? Is that what you are claiming?

  11. And what about the Queenslanders who are waiting for a Specialist appointment and are “no longer” on the list.

    They are well and truly “pissed off” with Newman’s lies about the waiting list being cleared!

    They used to be on the list but not any more!

  12. [Newman is being asked to comment however if the allegations are not true how do you answer them short of forcing the accuser to put forward the evidence?]

    Do what most politicians would do and tell the person to go to the proper authorities with evidence if it exists.

  13. Newman promising to refuse stage 3 of the coal mine is just as bad as promising to allow it.

    It is not the whim of the Premier to assess development applications. It seems he thinks it is.

    He is dumb suing Jones as it gives the whole coal approval quagmire an open hearing in court, the can of worms has been opened.

  14. teaser from the Oz (pay walled)

    [MICHAEL MCKENNA
    CAMPBELL Newman is in the fight of his political career, with the LNP facing massive swings, an exclusive Newspoll has found.]

  15. citizen@171

    teaser from the Oz (pay walled)

    MICHAEL MCKENNA
    CAMPBELL Newman is in the fight of his political career, with the LNP facing massive swings, an exclusive Newspoll has found.

    And here is part of it.
    [CAMPBELL Newman is in the fight of his political career, with the Liberal National Party facing massive swings in regional Queensland, an exclusive Newspoll has found.

    Just a week out from the state election, the poll conducted for The Weekend Australian reveals a swing of up to 13 per cent in key LNP-held seats across Queensland.

    Dozens of LNP seats would fall to Labor next Saturday if the backlash against the first-term Newman government was carried across the state.

    The Newspoll of voters this week in the electorates of ­Ipswich West, 40km outside Brisbane, Keppel, near Rockhampton, and Cairns in the far north, reveals the LNP’s primary vote has plummeted since it swept to power in 2012 with the biggest majority in an Australian parliament.

    In those key seats, Labor’s primary vote has jumped 16 points to 47 per cent in the three seats, held by Labor before 2012, with the LNP’s vote collapsing more than eight points to 43.5 per cent. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the LNP 56 per cent to 44 per cent — a swing of 13 per cent.

    But insiders from both major parties say that their own polling shows the contest is far from over, with some voters still wavering, big variations in the swings across the state and the impact of preference flows still hard to pick.]

  16. Bemused they are three seats Labor should win in any case. The article says Cairns with a margin of 8.9% is on a knife-edge and Labor need more than a 9% overall swing.

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