ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

After a dead heat in a ReachTEL poll conducted on the evening the election was announced, a second poll for the Seven Network finds the Liberal National Party moving ahead.

The Seven Network reports that the second ReachTEL poll of the Queensland election suggests the tide is going in the Liberal National Party’s direction, which is consistent with what I’ve been able to observe of the campaign. Whereas the first poll on the night of the election announcement had it dead level, this poll has the LNP leading 52-48 from primary votes of 42.0% for the LNP (up 1.7%), 36.7% for Labor (down 1.4%), 8.4% to the Greens (up 0.8%) and 5.2% to Palmer United (down 0.9%). Two-thirds expect the LNP to win, and a question on preferred LNP leader if Campbell Newman loses Ashgrove has Fiona Simpson moving ahead of Lawrence Springborg, with likely nominee Tim Nicholls well down the list.

UPDATE: Full results here. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 1635.

UPDATE 2: For the purposes of illustrating a point I’m making in an article I’m writing for Crikey, I feature below calculations of the LNP’s two-party vote at the federal election transposed on to state election boundaries. In the other two columns are the 2012 state result (asterisk indicating an estimate because no LNP-versus-Labor count was conducted), and what I’ve called “SSD”, or “standardised state difference”. This equals the relevant electorate’s deviation from the mean at the state election, minus the equivalent result for the federal election. So for example, Nanango, Kawana and Burnett were seats where the LNP had relatively stronger results at the state than the federal election; Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave and Kerry Shine in Toowoomba North appear to have been two Labor members who performed particularly well in spite of everything; and Mansfield, ever the bellwether, was bang on the statewide average both times. There have been a few seats where I deemed the state 2PP to be unestimateable (inestimable?), and you might well think there should have been a few more.

 Federal State SSD
Albert
59.8%
61.9%
-1.2%
Algester
51.5%
59.1%
4.2%
Ashgrove
56.4%
55.7%
-2.3%
Aspley
57.2%
71.7%
10.6%
Barron River
60.0%
59.5%
-2.6%
Beaudesert
69.0%
77.1%*
8.7%
Brisbane Central
53.0%
54.9%
0.5%
Broadwater
70.2%
61.3%
-10.0%
Buderim
71.3%
76.0%
4.6%
Bulimba
51.5%
50.1%
-4.9%
Bundaberg
58.2%
68.2%
6.6%
Bundamba
38.8%
48.2%
5.0%
Burdekin
61.0%
71.5%*
7.3%
Burleigh
66.2%
61.0%
-7.0%
Burnett
63.8%
76.1%*
10.8%
Cairns
59.9%
58.9%
-4.3%
Callide
72.9%
78.2%*
5.0%
Caloundra
65.8%
71.2%
6.3%
Capalaba
54.0%
53.7%
-3.7%
Chatsworth
57.4%
64.1%
3.4%
Clayfield
60.3%
70.6%
8.0%
Cleveland
63.9%
68.1%
1.4%
Condamine
78.2%
80.9%*
2.9%
Cook
55.1%
53.4%
-6.3%
Coomera
68.4%
73.3%
3.9%
Currumbin
62.7%
70.2%
6.4%
Dalrymple
67.0%
Everton
60.5%
63.2%
-0.2%
Ferny Grove
59.0%
59.5%
-1.6%
Gaven
63.3%
69.1%
3.6%
Gladstone
45.3%
Glass House
64.3%
70.4%
7.3%
Greenslopes
54.4%
52.5%
-4.8%
Gregory
69.8%
75.5%
4.9%
Gympie
69.0%
76.1%*
7.9%
Hervey Bay
64.3%
71.7%
5.4%
Hinchinbrook
73.7%
73.1%*
-2.0%
Inala
36.3%
43.1%
1.3%
Indooroopilly
65.8%
69.5%
3.4%
Ipswich
41.7%
54.2%
8.1%
Ipswich West
49.0%
57.2%
4.3%
Kallangur
54.1%
62.4%
5.4%
Kawana
66.2%
76.3%
11.7%
Keppel
56.0%
56.4%
-2.4%
Lockyer
66.6%
71.3%*
5.5%
Logan
49.0%
54.8%
2.0%
Lytton
50.2%
51.6%
-1.9%
Mackay
55.4%
49.5%
-9.0%
Mansfield
56.3%
61.1%
1.8%
Maroochydore
66.1%
70.9%
4.1%
Maryborough
64.9%
Mermaid Beach
73.6%
76.0%
0.8%
Mirani
55.7%
61.2%
3.2%
Moggill
69.8%
73.9%
3.0%
Morayfield
57.4%
55.6%
-4.9%
Mount Coot-tha
57.5%
55.4%
-2.1%
Mount Isa
69.8%
56.0%*
-15.7%
Mount Ommaney
59.3%
66.5%
4.1%
Mudgeeraba
72.0%
75.9%
2.4%
Mulgrave
59.7%
48.9%
-14.9%
Mundingburra
58.3%
60.2%
-0.9%
Murrumba
51.2%
59.5%
3.0%
Nanango
70.9%
82.8%*
12.0%
Nicklin
64.4%
Noosa
69.1%
77.5%*
8.2%
Nudgee
47.4%
53.1%
1.3%
Pine Rivers
57.3%
63.7%
3.8%
Pumicestone
59.8%
62.1%
-1.0%
Redcliffe
50.2%
60.1%
4.4%
Redlands
63.6%
71.1%
4.5%
Rockhampton
47.8%
46.1%
-5.8%
Sandgate
45.6%
52.9%
2.8%
South Brisbane
44.2%
45.3%
-0.4%
Southern Downs
76.2%
80.1%*
4.5%
Southport
67.5%
64.7%
-4.6%
Springwood
57.9%
65.4%
4.6%
Stafford
54.3%
57.1%
-0.5%
Stretton
50.7%
59.6%
5.3%
Sunnybank
51.5%
60.2%
4.7%
Surfers Paradise
74.5%
79.5%
2.9%
Thuringowa
61.6%
61.3%*
-2.3%
Toowoomba North
67.5%
59.6%
-9.0%
Toowoomba South
68.4%
71.6%
2.4%
Townsville
58.5%
54.8%
-6.0%
Warrego
78.2%
81.0%*
2.2%
Waterford
51.2%
51.0%
-3.9%
Whitsunday
62.8%
60.7%
-4.0%
Woodridge
36.1%
44.2%
4.1%
Yeerongpilly
45.6%
51.4%
3.7%

UPDATE 3: And below are full results for the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which I don’t think have been published. Swings from 2012 election noted in italics.

LNP
ALP
GRN
PUP
LNP 2PP
Sample
Cairns
40
44
8
5
47
610
-3
+17
+1
-11.9
Barron River
43
42
10
5
50
700
-3
+14
+1
-9.5
Mulgrave
31
52
4
5
39
600
-1
+18
–
-9.9
Greenslopes
36
50
12
41
511
-12
+11
-1
-11.5
Pumicestone
46
40
7
3
52
567
-7
+10
+1
-10.1
Mundingburra
43
44
8
5
49
644
–
+18
+3
-11.2
Thuringowa
38
42
5
5
48
696
+2
+15
+1
-8.7
Townsville
33
46
10
6
42
611
-6
+17
+2
-12.8

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

176 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

Comments Page 1 of 4
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  2. And the decimals

    [@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 42.0 (+1.7) ALP 36.7 (-1.4) GRN 8.4 (+0.8) PUP 5.2 (-1.1) #qldvotes #auspol]

  4. Still no mention of that bucket Clive Palmer was supposedly going to drop on Newman.

    If you’ve got something on him Clive now would be a good time to reveal it.

  6. I thought Palmer’s bucket was the idea that Newman called the election because his colleagues were moving to dump him? Wasn’t that it?

  7. This poll still represents an 11% swing away from the LNP – a total of about 30 seats could be lost by the LNP.

    This leaves them on about 44 seats. A very precarious position to be in.

    The things still at Play, yet to factor in:

    Alan Jones influence.
    Ian Leavers influence
    Dr Chris Davis influence
    Tony Abbott influence

    and they’ll be hoping the margin of error hasn’t acted in their favour.

  11. More like an 8% uniform swing. Reckon regional qld May swing more than SE, ie right swings wrong places. I reckon Anastasia will be relived Sunday week to be able to pass the burden.

  16. “I concur Kevin B” @10

    ESJ please show us your detailed analysis as to why an 11% swing is only 8% @11.

    KB certainly provides an expert analysis on his blog and he’s come out closer to a 10% swing (2PP 53/47 @9) than my estimate of 11%.

    Your deft head for figures obviously knows something both of us don’t so please enlighten us.

  17. Based on 53/47 the swing in SEQ would be 9.1% and 12.1% to ALP in regional Queensland.

    On Antony Green’s calculator this gives 50 LNP 35 ALP and 4 Others (giving Gladstone to ALP in this assumption)

  20. Sprocket @ 5

    Last politician to do that to a journalist’s question was rewarded by the Australian public with the keys to the (under renovationL lodge.

  21. ESJ is that the best you can do to justify your erudite non-contribution ?

    I’m beginning to think you can’t even read, drawing the conclusions you do.

    Or do you have an earpiece connected to CofS like your dear leader and get your response all jumbled ???

  22. aaronkirk @17

    A 11.9% swing in South east Queensland and a 9.3% swing in regional Queensland would be a 2PP of 53/47 to the LNP.

    It would result in 38 seats for the ALP and 46 for the LNP with 5 others.

    As the far stronger swing against the ALP occurred in South East Qld 3 years ago there is some justification for the swing back likely being higher in the south east.

  23. ausdavo

    I went with swings in regions to give 53/47 to LNP which gave the numbers I provided (except Gladstone) which I have given to the ALP

  26. To clarify #9 my 2PP estimate off these primaries is 52.6. I’ve usually found that the ReachTEL 2PP estimates seem a shade more ALP-friendly than mine, while one of the Galaxy ones last year was significantly more Coalition-friendly. Bear in mind 2PP estimation in Queensland is a very inexact and assumption-riddled science.

    Re the whole SEQ thing here: I would like to see poll-based evidence of a higher swing in SEQ. As far as I know there is no recent published evidence on this. The Galaxy seat polls did not support it (but were hardly sufficient to test it anyway). Other polls so far as I know haven’t provided regional breakdowns. The ReachTELs provide breakdowns for some questions but oddly not voting intention.

  27. The incumbent was also ahead 52-48 in the opinion polling conducted 10 before the 2010 federal election.

    Punters were also expecting an easy victory by that incumbent.

    Things can change a lot in 10 days.

  29. KB

    That’s what intrigued me no regional 2PP (although they say more to come).

    At the last election my figures suggest a swing of 10% against the ALP in regional Qld (complicated a little by Ind and KAP).

    However, the swing in South east Qld was a much larger 16% against the ALP (see seats like Ipswich, Logan, Waterford etc.)

    This suggests a lot of hostile union types who were dead against Bligh’s privatisation and deserted the safe ALP seats in their droves.

    I feel that there will be very large swings back to the ALP in these sort of seats. It’s whether they spread through the other SE Qld seats to help the ALP capture enough to push the LNP under 45.

    After the present 6 in SE Qld, I estimate there are another 20 SE Qld seats likely to return to the ALP and the longest is Sunnybank on 10.2%. Four seats require in the lower 9% (Algester, Ferny Grove, Murumba & Stretton) and the other 15 are 7.2% Ipswich, 5.7% Ashgrove and 13 seats 5.6% or less. On tonight’s poll all very winnable.

    In regional Qld there are potentially 10 seats could be added to the existing three on the figures shown.

    The grand total would be 39 potential which would leave the LNP in a precarious position.

  30. Hope LNP win and Cando the Muppet survives as well. But either one will make it harder for the Federal conservatives in 2016. Sorry cane toads but when did u folks ever give rats about the rest of the country.

  31. Hi davidwh – you are suggesting momentum for the ALP. Is that because you “guess” the MOE is in their favour ?

    If it’s not then there may in fact be no “momentum” to the LNP at all. All of us on this site know that MOE can explain 1% changes in 2PP. Made much harder with optional preferential and the strong campaign to number every square which I observed when voting Pre poll today.

    It’s still very much wait and see.

  33. Ausdavo the fact we have three separate pollsters showing a similar result I doubt it can be explained by MOE. But you are correct it’s still close enough for there to be some doubt.

  34. Keyman,

    Without the huge numbers of Vics and Nsw’s up here, Joh’s mob would be in permanent occupancy of the Treasury.

    Us southerner’s have helped the place to develop a conscience.

    I do agree with you that an LNP win here will help get rid of Abbott in 2016. But a hung parliament with the LNP still in control, but unable to do all the nasty things they have promised, would be great.

  35. [“Yep, on these numbers –

    Ten (10) more days of Campbellism coming up !”]

    Labor on 9 Seats Currently

    First Term Sitting Government on 76 Seats

    Labor on 48% TPP

    How does that compute down at ALP headquarters as a win? I guess if you sprinkle on some wishful thinking, add a pinch of pixie dust and maybe add a bushell of the green stuff it all makes sense.

    3 More years in opposition for Labor.

  37. Three more years of lies and handouts to yer mates is what you really advocate tb.

    But the good news for those like me (who has never predicted an ALP win) is that Qldrs will turn on Abbott big time in 18 months. The State LNP will be providing plenty of reasons why they should never be trusted for a long time forward.

  40. Good point david, but the more that desert the sinking ship the better.

    Oh, I’ve just realised he’s now got one of those always pro ALP ABC guys (Simpkins) handling things now (Peta will be pleased).

    My prediction – Abbott & the LNP to regain the lead this year!

  42. For comparisons sake here is the sort of numbers Labor needs to actually win government, based on the 2009 result which was a slim majority.(45 Seats Required)

    2009 Results
    Labor 42.3 51 Seats
    Liberal National 41.6 34 Seats
    Greens 8.3 0 Seats
    Others 7.8 4 Seats

    Those with a keen eye will notice a 4 in front of the Labor Primary back in 2009… yet they have bled primary votes since and the Greens can’t save them as their vote hasn’t gone up as a result. Add into the mix optional preferential voting and you soon realise Labor are screwed.

  46. TBA, what is missing from your hypothesis is that there are still many undecideds. The election remains up for grabs but I agree, LNP must be favoured. Labor was is climbing a big mountain. To pick up 25 seats will make them truly competitive for the election following in 2018.

    I think Newman will either loSe his seat or get rolled by someone like Emerson.

  47. [Martin – from memory, the most recent poll to ask about expectation had around 65% of the survey predicting a LNP win.]

    {raises eyebrow}
    There is recent public polling indicating a clear majority of Quince expect Newman to win Ashgrove?
    {/raise}

  48. I see that the Australian today said of the green votes they surveyed, 90% proposed to preference labor and 10% exhaust. Hard to believe, but interested in what effect this would have on the 2PP under the OPV system.

  50. I have been reading a lot about momentum, but really all the polls I have seen in the last month have all been within the margin of error. It seems clear to me that LNP will get ~53% of vote and ending up somewhere near 50 seats with Labour getting ~47% and ending up somewhere near 35 seats. Might go a little better if less people exhaust their preferences as last time. Still, with a 10-11% swing on the night there will be some carnage with the odd 15% swing here and there. Probably the best that Labor could hope for after 2012.

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