ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

After a dead heat in a ReachTEL poll conducted on the evening the election was announced, a second poll for the Seven Network finds the Liberal National Party moving ahead.

The Seven Network reports that the second ReachTEL poll of the Queensland election suggests the tide is going in the Liberal National Party’s direction, which is consistent with what I’ve been able to observe of the campaign. Whereas the first poll on the night of the election announcement had it dead level, this poll has the LNP leading 52-48 from primary votes of 42.0% for the LNP (up 1.7%), 36.7% for Labor (down 1.4%), 8.4% to the Greens (up 0.8%) and 5.2% to Palmer United (down 0.9%). Two-thirds expect the LNP to win, and a question on preferred LNP leader if Campbell Newman loses Ashgrove has Fiona Simpson moving ahead of Lawrence Springborg, with likely nominee Tim Nicholls well down the list.

UPDATE: Full results here. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 1635.

UPDATE 2: For the purposes of illustrating a point I’m making in an article I’m writing for Crikey, I feature below calculations of the LNP’s two-party vote at the federal election transposed on to state election boundaries. In the other two columns are the 2012 state result (asterisk indicating an estimate because no LNP-versus-Labor count was conducted), and what I’ve called “SSD”, or “standardised state difference”. This equals the relevant electorate’s deviation from the mean at the state election, minus the equivalent result for the federal election. So for example, Nanango, Kawana and Burnett were seats where the LNP had relatively stronger results at the state than the federal election; Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave and Kerry Shine in Toowoomba North appear to have been two Labor members who performed particularly well in spite of everything; and Mansfield, ever the bellwether, was bang on the statewide average both times. There have been a few seats where I deemed the state 2PP to be unestimateable (inestimable?), and you might well think there should have been a few more.

 Federal State SSD
Albert
59.8%
61.9%
-1.2%
Algester
51.5%
59.1%
4.2%
Ashgrove
56.4%
55.7%
-2.3%
Aspley
57.2%
71.7%
10.6%
Barron River
60.0%
59.5%
-2.6%
Beaudesert
69.0%
77.1%*
8.7%
Brisbane Central
53.0%
54.9%
0.5%
Broadwater
70.2%
61.3%
-10.0%
Buderim
71.3%
76.0%
4.6%
Bulimba
51.5%
50.1%
-4.9%
Bundaberg
58.2%
68.2%
6.6%
Bundamba
38.8%
48.2%
5.0%
Burdekin
61.0%
71.5%*
7.3%
Burleigh
66.2%
61.0%
-7.0%
Burnett
63.8%
76.1%*
10.8%
Cairns
59.9%
58.9%
-4.3%
Callide
72.9%
78.2%*
5.0%
Caloundra
65.8%
71.2%
6.3%
Capalaba
54.0%
53.7%
-3.7%
Chatsworth
57.4%
64.1%
3.4%
Clayfield
60.3%
70.6%
8.0%
Cleveland
63.9%
68.1%
1.4%
Condamine
78.2%
80.9%*
2.9%
Cook
55.1%
53.4%
-6.3%
Coomera
68.4%
73.3%
3.9%
Currumbin
62.7%
70.2%
6.4%
Dalrymple
67.0%
Everton
60.5%
63.2%
-0.2%
Ferny Grove
59.0%
59.5%
-1.6%
Gaven
63.3%
69.1%
3.6%
Gladstone
45.3%
Glass House
64.3%
70.4%
7.3%
Greenslopes
54.4%
52.5%
-4.8%
Gregory
69.8%
75.5%
4.9%
Gympie
69.0%
76.1%*
7.9%
Hervey Bay
64.3%
71.7%
5.4%
Hinchinbrook
73.7%
73.1%*
-2.0%
Inala
36.3%
43.1%
1.3%
Indooroopilly
65.8%
69.5%
3.4%
Ipswich
41.7%
54.2%
8.1%
Ipswich West
49.0%
57.2%
4.3%
Kallangur
54.1%
62.4%
5.4%
Kawana
66.2%
76.3%
11.7%
Keppel
56.0%
56.4%
-2.4%
Lockyer
66.6%
71.3%*
5.5%
Logan
49.0%
54.8%
2.0%
Lytton
50.2%
51.6%
-1.9%
Mackay
55.4%
49.5%
-9.0%
Mansfield
56.3%
61.1%
1.8%
Maroochydore
66.1%
70.9%
4.1%
Maryborough
64.9%
Mermaid Beach
73.6%
76.0%
0.8%
Mirani
55.7%
61.2%
3.2%
Moggill
69.8%
73.9%
3.0%
Morayfield
57.4%
55.6%
-4.9%
Mount Coot-tha
57.5%
55.4%
-2.1%
Mount Isa
69.8%
56.0%*
-15.7%
Mount Ommaney
59.3%
66.5%
4.1%
Mudgeeraba
72.0%
75.9%
2.4%
Mulgrave
59.7%
48.9%
-14.9%
Mundingburra
58.3%
60.2%
-0.9%
Murrumba
51.2%
59.5%
3.0%
Nanango
70.9%
82.8%*
12.0%
Nicklin
64.4%
Noosa
69.1%
77.5%*
8.2%
Nudgee
47.4%
53.1%
1.3%
Pine Rivers
57.3%
63.7%
3.8%
Pumicestone
59.8%
62.1%
-1.0%
Redcliffe
50.2%
60.1%
4.4%
Redlands
63.6%
71.1%
4.5%
Rockhampton
47.8%
46.1%
-5.8%
Sandgate
45.6%
52.9%
2.8%
South Brisbane
44.2%
45.3%
-0.4%
Southern Downs
76.2%
80.1%*
4.5%
Southport
67.5%
64.7%
-4.6%
Springwood
57.9%
65.4%
4.6%
Stafford
54.3%
57.1%
-0.5%
Stretton
50.7%
59.6%
5.3%
Sunnybank
51.5%
60.2%
4.7%
Surfers Paradise
74.5%
79.5%
2.9%
Thuringowa
61.6%
61.3%*
-2.3%
Toowoomba North
67.5%
59.6%
-9.0%
Toowoomba South
68.4%
71.6%
2.4%
Townsville
58.5%
54.8%
-6.0%
Warrego
78.2%
81.0%*
2.2%
Waterford
51.2%
51.0%
-3.9%
Whitsunday
62.8%
60.7%
-4.0%
Woodridge
36.1%
44.2%
4.1%
Yeerongpilly
45.6%
51.4%
3.7%

UPDATE 3: And below are full results for the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which I don’t think have been published. Swings from 2012 election noted in italics.

LNP
ALP
GRN
PUP
LNP 2PP
Sample
Cairns
40
44
8
5
47
610
-3
+17
+1
-11.9
Barron River
43
42
10
5
50
700
-3
+14
+1
-9.5
Mulgrave
31
52
4
5
39
600
-1
+18
–
-9.9
Greenslopes
36
50
12
41
511
-12
+11
-1
-11.5
Pumicestone
46
40
7
3
52
567
-7
+10
+1
-10.1
Mundingburra
43
44
8
5
49
644
–
+18
+3
-11.2
Thuringowa
38
42
5
5
48
696
+2
+15
+1
-8.7
Townsville
33
46
10
6
42
611
-6
+17
+2
-12.8

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

176 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

Comments Page 2 of 4
1 2 3 4

  3. No, to make my point more explicitly:

    I reckon that confidence in the electorate that Newman will lose Ashgrove (& the premiership) must be worth 2-3% for the LNP.

  4. So, the OP suggests the public want premier Simpson.

    My priors for the LNP either representing public opinion or electing a woman are low.

    If Simpson went from Speakership of the lower house to ongoing premier, would that be a precedent?

  5. [What if Newman wins but the LNP falls short. Now that would make an interesting OL contest.]

    Must be the most unlikely but also the most uninteresting.
    Newman would feel unable to resign as member and so would not like to step down as leader.
    Other contenders – and there would be many fewer if the LNP had lost – would be happy to bide their time.
    About a year in – one way or the other – the action would start.

    If the LNP lose outright, with Newman also losing (somewhat more likely), the LNP would opt for ‘renewal’ leadership : Simpson, Walker, Crisafulli, Frecklington.

  6. Newman McGee@48

    I see that the Australian today said of the green votes they surveyed, 90% proposed to preference labor and 10% exhaust. Hard to believe, but interested in what effect this would have on the 2PP under the OPV system.

    Thanks for posting about that; I hadn’t seen that report and have found it now: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/queensland-election-2015-newman-needs-to-raise-alp-ghosts/story-e6frg6zo-1227191312039

    If their sample of 609 is representative then it probably has fewer than 50 Green voters in it making the sample very unreliable. I would also be suspicious of the methods as this is not coming from Newspoll but an “online qualitative survey” by a think tank.

    If it was true it would improve Labor’s 2PP by about the 2% they are suggesting, or slightly more.

  7. Martin B@54

    So, the OP suggests the public want premier Simpson.

    The poll is showing Simpson as the second most-popular option among a list of names including Newman, but a long way behind Newman. A rating of 21% does not show the public want a particular candidate. What it actually shows is that Labor and to some extent Greens supporters prefer her.

    We do not know in this poll who is the most popular option if Newman loses, because you would have to ask the 38.5% who preferred Newman – mostly LNP voters – who their next choice was. In the Ashgrove poll the LNP voters tended to prefer Nicholls and the Borg.

    Even then it’s not likely anyone would be near a majority so the primary leader would not necessarily be the most preferred.

  8. Thanks Kevin

    Actually plugged their numbers into the Reachtel survey and got 45.8% for LNP, 48% for ALP and 6.2% exhausted giving ALP 51% and LNP 49%. The sample size of the ‘online qualitative survey’ is small and therefore unreliable but it certainly underlines why the LNP is pushing the ‘just vote 1 line’ and how voter exhaustion can affect the result (pun intended). I see that Antony Green has written about this on his blog: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/01/why-campbell-newman-advocatesjust-vote-1.html

    I suspect that there might be less exhaustion of preferences in this election than in 2012 when there was a general ‘anyone but ALP’ feel to the electorate. Would otherwise expect Green votes to preference ALP more than the 43.3% that they did in 2012.

    Of course, with more PUP vote and less KAP vote this time around it will be very difficult to predict ‘others’.

  9. [We do not know in this poll who is the most popular option if Newman loses, because you would have to ask the 38.5% who preferred Newman – mostly LNP voters – who their next choice was. In the Ashgrove poll the LNP voters tended to prefer Nicholls and the Borg.]

    Enough with your psephological accuracy – can you answer the supplementary?

    In the vanishingly small probability that Simpson is premier post-election will that be a first in westminster parliaments?
    (I hear Darryl saying ‘look to the Canadian provinces’.)
    Surely it would be an Australian first?

  10. Martin B@59

    We do not know in this poll who is the most popular option if Newman loses, because you would have to ask the 38.5% who preferred Newman – mostly LNP voters – who their next choice was. In the Ashgrove poll the LNP voters tended to prefer Nicholls and the Borg.


    Enough with your psephological accuracy – can you answer the supplementary?

    In the vanishingly small probability that Simpson is premier post-election will that be a first in westminster parliaments?
    (I hear Darryl saying ‘look to the Canadian provinces’.)
    Surely it would be an Australian first?

    Perhaps surprisingly no. In 1903 Arthur Morgan, then Speaker in Queensland, was asked to become Premier (and did so) after the previous Premier was unable to command a majority and resigned.

    There might be other cases of the same thing too – I only checked Vic, NSW, Qld and federal. There are certainly other cases of people serving as Speaker then some years later as Premier.

    These days it is far less likely.

  11. Newman McGee@58

    Thanks Kevin

    Actually plugged their numbers into the Reachtel survey and got 45.8% for LNP, 48% for ALP and 6.2% exhausted giving ALP 51% and LNP 49%. The sample size of the ‘online qualitative survey’ is small and therefore unreliable but it certainly underlines why the LNP is pushing the ‘just vote 1 line’ and how voter exhaustion can affect the result (pun intended). I see that Antony Green has written about this on his blog: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/01/why-campbell-newman-advocatesjust-vote-1.html

    I suspect that there might be less exhaustion of preferences in this election than in 2012 when there was a general ‘anyone but ALP’ feel to the electorate. Would otherwise expect Green votes to preference ALP more than the 43.3% that they did in 2012.

    Of course, with more PUP vote and less KAP vote this time around it will be very difficult to predict ‘others’.

    Yes I was using my aggregate which has a slightly lower Green vote than ReachTEL.

    It seems extremely likely that the percentage of Green vote exhausting will go down and the flow of Others will be weaker to the LNP if it is even to them at all. So we might well expect a closer 2PP off the published primaries, but counteracting that we may again find (as in Vic) that the published primaries are slightly ALP-leaning compared to the result.

  14. There’s as much chance that it’s Simpson, Nichols or Seeney depending on the voter intention but in the end it’s up to the party room.

  16. [“Federal Labor will be very, very happy to see the LNP hold on. They’ll be deliriously so if Campbell Newman does.”]

    A weak opposition with no real plan and no economic credentials lose an election… sounds exactly like Federal Labor.

    They won’t be happy at all. Wheres your policies Bill?

  17. I tend to think Newman losing is better. It would send a cold chill down the spine of the federal coalition, and the state mob would have a nice spill to start their term

  18. Remember how at 2013 election commentator orthodoxy was Sydney would swing more than regional NSW? Exact opposite happened so be cautious about assumption SE Qld swing will be greater. In 2012 did KAP dampen swing outside Brisbane by soaking up unhappy Labor voters who in Brisbane went straight to LNP? Compared to 2012 non-LNP right + Inds look weaker & none of them (except Wellington?) ever likely to support a minority Labor govt

  19. Anyway if there is a MOE error it may be in the LNP’s favour and the real situation could be 55/45 and a comfortable win to the evil group 🙂

    But don’t worry Alan Jones is still working hard for Labor.

  21. Outside Left as the tweet said “if it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck then it’s Ray Stevens”. Labor need some help at present.

  23. Will be happy if the Libs get back in Qld and that enhances Labor’s prospects in the 2016 federal election. Guess the cane-toads will just have to take one for the team.

  24. [Will be happy if the Libs get back in Qld and that enhances Labor’s prospects in the 2016 federal election]

    But what happens if the asset sale/lease strategy works and the QLD economy improves, jobs are created and the debt get’s paid down? This could be enhanced if the new QLD premier ends up being liked. Miracles do happen at times.

  25. ReachTEL Regional v SEQ:

    Regional
    LNP 40.9
    ALP 35.8
    Grn 6.1
    PUP 6.9
    Other 10.3

    SEQ
    LNP 42.5
    ALP 37.2
    Grn 9.5
    PUP 4.5
    Other 6.3

    I haven’t had time to estimate the swings from these yet.

  26. 74

    from what I understand the whole ‘leasing’ process would take about 5 years. If the scheme gets up doubt you’ll see much benefit from it in the next term of government

  29. Realistically it’ll take some time to put out to tender each individual asset and go through the process. Unless they’ve got someone in mind already.. but that’ll only cut it down a bit.

  30. There are no quick fixes to either paying down debt or infrastructure projects. However you wouldn’t have to have the whole sale/lease completed before you commence the new infrastructure projects. A lot of master planning and design involving job creation could start fairly quickly. Providing there was some certainty around the sale/lease then there is no reason not to commence the new infrastructure projects.

  31. hmm..wishful thinking but I wonder if 2018 might throw up another east-west link style scenario. A Labor opposition threatening to tear up any tenders/leases if elected

  33. In principle I don’t have a problem with using debt to finance capital projects. The qualification are the level of debt already held and whether the capital asset is capable of generating the required revenue to service the new debt.

    If the capital assets are for non-revenue services rather than income producing then the servicing cost would have to be found from recurring revenue. Then it can become a problem for a government already holding high levels of debt.

  34. Campbell Newman will deliver 3000 new health staff – 400 doctors and 1700 nurses.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-22/lnp-pledges-to-employ-thousands-more-doctors-and-nurses/6034444

    So how many retire or leave the system through attrition each three years? Just curious.

    Seriously if Newman really does mean to employ extra medicos, then it shows he really cares! And who knows better how many extra doctors and nurses are needed than the man who sacked so many in the first place!

  36. [“And who knows better how many extra doctors and nurses are needed than the man who sacked so many in the first place!”]

    There is a world of difference between sacking thousands of pencil pushers and sacking doctors and nurses.

    The truth is there was a lot of dead wood in the public service that needed to be flushed. The job for life under Labor mantra had to go and it did.

    Frankly there were individuals who would never be employed by the private sector working for government and had a job as long as they showed up 4? Days a week.

  37. Had a hospital appointment yesterday. It was a joke. Obviously inadequate unqualified or time poor Drs. Actually do nothing at all. Literally!!! I travelled 45 minutes and waited 20 min to meet a child doctor who asked me how I felt and arranged a scan 4 months hence. NO examination, no questions. It was a TOTAL waste of time and could have been organised by a nurse by telephone. I suspect (not sure) that there are no longer specialist doctors on site so the child who saw me may not have the quals to actually examine a patient.

  39. Absolute bullshit TBA – the pen-pushers were what enabled nurses to spend the majority of their time with patients rather than, dun-dun-DUN, pushing pens. Because the paperwork still needs to get filled out.

    And still, nurse numbers were reduced.

    Unless you’re working in health you’ve got zero idea.

  40. Raaraa@85

    Just loaded up Excel when I got the chance, but if anyone’s interested, they can roughly compare KB’s number @75 with this Poll Bludger article from 2012.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/03/25/breakdown-broken-down/

    Thankyou. I am not sure if this is quite accurate but I am treating Regional as including Central Coast, Northern Coastal, Interior and Top End. If anyone thinks I should include other bits let me know.

    Anyway if I do that the important difference is that in SEQ the swing is more or less straight LNP to Labor, while in the regions the swing seems to be a combination of Other to everyone else and LNP to ALP. But in projected 2PP terms the swings are as good as identical.

  41. TBA – the constant and very old-fashioned idea that the public service is full of people who work 6 hour days and 4 day weeks. They take 90 mins for lunch … etc etc – doesn’t reflect the reality. But of course, there is dead wood in every organisation – public or private and the public sector is under a lot more scrutiny and has a lot more accountability. The issue is that politicians want to pander to people with the same outdated views as you. “Bah, our hard earned money going to bludger public servants” the issue being, instead of actual fair processes designed to weed out the dead-wood, Government just take machetes when they should be using scalpels. What happened in QLD is exactly the same as what’s going on in the APS at the federal level. They’re not just getting rid of dead-wood, they’re reducing long-term corporate knowledge and because COAG negotiations are a disaster-zone at the moment, the states aren’t (and won’t be taking back significant responsibility for anything else) – so the Commonwealth is undertaking the same-workload with fewer people… so, actually decreasing productivity in the APS.

  43. KB

    [Thankyou. I am not sure if this is quite accurate but I am treating Regional as including Central Coast, Northern Coastal, Interior and Top End. If anyone thinks I should include other bits let me know.

    Anyway if I do that the important difference is that in SEQ the swing is more or less straight LNP to Labor, while in the regions the swing seems to be a combination of Other to everyone else and LNP to ALP. But in projected 2PP terms the swings are as good as identical.]

    I’m not even sure what “Urban Hinterland” means, but I’m assuming it’s the area around Ipswich and the Glasshouse Mountains, Darling Downs, etc. William Bowe might know this a bit better.

  45. WB

    [A bunch of Morgan SMS state polling, including a 50.5-49.5 result from Queensland]

    Thanks, William. I wondered where this had gone since I was one of the pollees.

  46. I’ve just received an email from Morgan Gallup with its latest poll (today) and the result shows that it is 50.5% – 49.5% to lnp. This is unchanged from November (not on Morgan Gallup website yet). This poll is also untainted by the murdoch press unlike Galaxy or NewsPoll. It also says that this election is too close to call, but upon putting the result through the Antony Green’s (ABC) election calculator it gives Labor 46 (including Gladstone). Mind you it is on a uniform swing which ain’t going to happen because I believe that some seats the calculator give Labor won’t occur, but on the other some lnp seats it says are retained won’t occur.

  47. the relevant QLD bit…

    http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6023-sms-state-morgan-polls-nsw-vic-qld-wa-sa-tas-january-2015-201501220502

    [2PP#: LNP 50.5% (unchanged since November 21-24, 2014) cf. ALP 49.5% (unchanged).

    Primary vote: LNP 39.5% (up 0.5%), ALP 37% (up 0.5%), Greens 10% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 4% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 6% (down 1.5%).

    Better Premier: Premier Campbell Newman (LNP) v Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP):
    Ms. Palaszczuk 51.5% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Newman 48.5% (up 1%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 3% (down 2%).

    Queensland real unemployment is now 12.7% (up 1.8% since October-November 2014) and under-employment is 10.3% (up 1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 23% (up 2.8%). (Interviewed November & December 2014).

    Queensland State Election is being held on Saturday January 31, 2015.]
    Can’t see anywhere the sample size for each state, just the overall Australian wide sample of 4,489

  48. Morgan
    QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

    2PP#: LNP 50.5% (unchanged since November 21-24, 2014) cf. ALP 49.5% (unchanged).

    Primary vote: LNP 39.5% (up 0.5%), ALP 37% (up 0.5%), Greens 10% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party 4% (unchanged), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 6% (down 1.5%).

    Better Premier: Premier Campbell Newman (LNP) v Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP):
    Ms. Palaszczuk 51.5% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Newman 48.5% (up 1%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 3% (down 2%).

    Queensland real unemployment is now 12.7% (up 1.8% since October-November 2014) and under-employment is 10.3% (up 1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 23% (up 2.8%). (Interviewed November & December 2014).

    Queensland State Election is being held on Saturday January 31, 2015.

  49. Still tight. LNP won’t have much of a majority when this is over.

    Most of the other numbers are a beautiful sight, stench of LNP lies and failures is more obvious.

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