Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

After a strong result for Labor last week, Essential Research’s generally slow-moving fortnightly rolling average records a solid tick to the Coalition.

Essential Research now has two weeks of polling to rub a fortnightly rolling average together, and the addition of this week’s sample to last week’s result causes two-party preferred to tick a point in the Coalition’s favour, from 54-46 to 53-47. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 40%, with Labor, Greens and Palmer United respectively steady on 40%, 10% and 2%. Further questions find skepticism about Australian involvement in Iraq, the ABC and the High Court rated most trusted out of a specified list of “institutions and organisations” (though it doesn’t include police and defence forces, which might have rated higher), and the medical profession trusted in use of personal information but social media sites not so much. Also featured are interesting questions on internet and social media use, and a less interesting one on sports events.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

924 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [Today Mr Abbott sent a shot across the bow of anyone in his team who believed change would lift the Government’s fortunes.

    “If there is one lesson to be learnt from the fate of the former government in Canberra, maybe even the former government in Victoria, is you do not change leaders. You rally behind someone and you stick to the plan and we’ve got a good plan.]

    what a desperate argument this is. I’d love to see the results for the poll questions “Do you think abbott has a plan?” “If yes, do you think it is a good plan?” and “Do you think abbott should be replaced as leader of the LNP?”

  2. poroti
    Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 9:58 pm | PERMALINK
    victoria

    [What was rooly funny was how it was implicit that he admitted to be wRONg but struggled “manfully” to avoid saying so directly.]

    Trooly rooly funny!

  3. [With all this chitter chatter leaking into the media, you can just imagine the games being played behind the scenes! ]

    Rip back the curtain! Political junkies across the land want to see the full gory glory of it all.

    I know I do.

    😀

  4. [“Do you think abbott has a plan?” ]

    Sure, he’s got a plan.

    Stop the boats.
    End the waste.
    Ditch the witch…

    It’s just not a very detailed plan.

  5. CTar1

    A bit of excitement just down the road.

    [
    Two women suffer serious head injuries when scaffold pole falls on them in City street

    The pair, both aged in their 50s, were taken to hospital with head injuries after being hit by falling debris in Eldon Street just before midday.]
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/two-people-injured-after-scaffolding-collapses-on-street-in-the-city-9990300.html
    Google map.
    https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Eldon+St,+London+EC2M,+UK/@51.5186001,-0.0827788,16z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x48761cac535973f5:0x46cfb1a71cb3317b

  6. [If it’s news to you that the cash splash was invented by the sainted Howard, let me remind you.

    In the 2001 budget he and Peter Costello gave a one-off payment of $300 to everyone of age pension age, plus cash payments of $25,000 each to former prisoners of war of the Japanese, at a combined cost to the budget of more than $900 million.

    In the 2004 budget Howard and Costello gave one-off payments of $600 per child to people receiving the family tax benefit, bonus payments of $600 or $1000 to carers, and cash payments of $3500 per place to providers of aged care accommodation, at a combined cost of $3 billion.

    In the 2005 budget the $600 or $1000 bonus payments to carers were repeated at a cost of $320 million. The exercise was repeated again in the 2006 budget, by which time the cost had risen to $360 million. Seniors got a one-off utilities allowance costing $200 million.

    In the 2007 budget the cash bonuses to carers were repeated, plus a one-off bonus to seniors of $500 each, at a combined cost of $1.7 billion. And that year’s co-contribution for superannuation savers was retrospectively doubled, just the once, at a cost of $1.1 billion (with all of that, of course, guaranteed to be saved).

    How’s this for an irony? In last year’s budget Wayne Swan had hoped to end the Howard government’s practice of granting one-off bonuses to seniors and carers, but the Liberals shamed him into retaining it. Combined cost: $1.8 billion.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/tax-cuts-replace-howardinvented-cash-splash-20090510-az6d.html#ixzz3PY37Ejcm

  7. Martin B

    [Sure, he’s got a plan.

    Stop the boats.
    End the waste.
    Ditch the witch…

    It’s just not a very detailed plan.]

    This was the only part of the plan he revealed to the electorate.

    In fact, Abbott so far is aftempting to enact the policies that benefit the coalition’s business backers. For some reason, he and his govt have failed to sell it to the electorate. That is why he has to go

  8. [Martin B

    Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 9:52 pm ]

    Yes, Relativity was a genuinely unique and mind blowing concept, it wasn’t a natural progression of Newton, but it showed the limitations of Newton and the conditions where it was still valid.

  9. frednk – Yep. The Sydney Hilton was an actual bit of offensive violence while the Melbourne Sheraton was a training exercise gone wrong.

  10. Novel concept from Gough: argue your case in the parliament.

    Not sure morning TV, talkback radio, ABC current affairs radio, News 24, Sky news, 7.30 report, late night TV, newspaper internet sites, twitter etc would take too kindly to that.

  11. Kezza

    Thanks for the reminder. I remember my pensioner mother asking me why she had received one of Howard’s bonuses.

    It’s a bribe, I told her. Didn’t work, she would never vote Tory.

  12. Barney in Saigon@865

    Martin B

    Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 at 9:52 pm


    Yes, Relativity was a genuinely unique and mind blowing concept, it wasn’t a natural progression of Newton, but it showed the limitations of Newton and the conditions where it was still valid.

    Hi Barney, I’ve been puzzling over your expression 1/(C-v) and how it fits into Newtons equations.

    Can you explain please?

  13. Nothing that I saw before or since the election suggests to me that Abbott had personally thought about, in a sustained way, how he planned to approach what-is-called-reform in government.

    But yes, the IPA was a wishlist, and the Libs plan to implement it….

  14. poroti

    [A bit of excitement just down the road.]

    I recommend helmets for all CoL residents (after all you might trip over on the Embankment footpath or the Cannon St steps on the way home).

  15. [ Rip back the curtain! Political junkies across the land want to see the full gory glory of it all.

    I know I do.

    😀 ]

    Careful what you wish for. You may get an eye-full of Bishop or Morrison doing something you would rather not see. 🙂

  16. [Not sure morning TV, talkback radio, ABC current affairs radio, News 24, Sky news, 7.30 report, late night TV, newspaper internet sites, twitter etc would take too kindly to that.]

    What’s worse is that Abbott announced long and loud that he was taking leave, yet continued to be in our faces at the first opportunity he could take to be splashed all over the media.

    I said at the time it was like a competition between him and JBishop to see who could get the most media on any particular day.

  17. confessions

    Chris Ulhmann intimiated on ABC radio this morning that Malcolm Turnbull could well be in the running for the leadership position.

    The rumour going around is a JBishop/MTurnbull ticket. Could be the other way around

  18. vic,

    Turnbull will not initiate any Leadership spill but will certainly accept being drafted.

    Abbott’s trainwreck interview on 3AW this morning demonstrates, once again that he is now the problem.

    Many Libs may despise Turnbull. However, the Libs are notoriously unconcerned about such feelings if the alternative is the Opposition Benches.

    Abbott is probably one bad poll from being tapped on the shoulder.

  19. victoria@876

    confessions

    Chris Ulhmann intimiated on ABC radio this morning that Malcolm Turnbull could well be in the running for the leadership position.

    The rumour going around is a JBishop/MTurnbull ticket. Could be the other way around

    I think the evidence is quite clear that the Libs cannot win the next election with Abbott. Exactly what the best course of action, based on that reality, is over to the Libs to figure out.

    Quite frankly I don’t know and if i did i would not give any advice.

    Will be interesting to watch.

  20. victoria:

    Mark Simkin apparently started work with Abbott on Monday. If the de-barnacling and improving communications strategy involves Abbott cozying up more to his base, then long may Simkin’s tenure continue. 🙂

  21. GG

    It would be a question of turnbull being drafted, rather than him putting his hand up. Apparently, he is popular here in Vic, and having him lead the party may save Victoria for the fibs.

  22. 863
    kezza2

    Thanks for that link. 🙂

    ————

    872
    imacca

    Fair enough.

    Still, if Abbott is going down I want it to be as humiliating and public and drawn out and bloody as possible. He, and the Libs, thoroughly deserve it.

  23. [ The rumour going around is a JBishop/MTurnbull ticket. Could be the other way around ]

    Cant see Bishop taking the Deputy position again regardless and if she takes it under Turnbull then that has to be the end of her career with it topping out at Deputy Dawg.

    Would be interesting to see their policies under a new Turnbull leadership and whether Turnbull would continue with most of the crap they are pushing now??

  24. I think Abbott has shown, it doesn’t matter how good or talented the people working under you are… if the headline product is as faulty as Abbott, nothing is going to help you.

  25. Re: leadership. Considering the total re-do required on virtually every policy front. No one intimately involved with the Budget can be seriously considered.

  26. imacca

    Turnbull has done a fair job of nobbling the NBN for the coalition backers. I would say that he continue the job of pushing the rest of the crap as well.
    My hope is that the electorate take note of what the coalition actually do, and not what they say

  27. [ My hope is that the electorate take note of what the coalition actually do, and not what they say ]

    And popping Turnbull into the PM big chair is the best way for the Coalition to distract from what they are actually doing. But will it work through to mid 2016 if the policies dont change?

    Anyhow, i will be much surprised if its Malcolm on top after Abbott is dumped. Morriscum or Mesma i reckon.

  28. I hear it’s on for Tuesday and Morrison will run. The disastrous tenure of Abbott PM to last only half of the Rudd and Gillard terms. LOL!
    How humiliating! Couldn’t happen to a nicer bastard.

    Just remember:
    – LNP can’t govern themselves, can’t govern the country.
    – it’s the policies that suck, not just the leader

  29. Bishop/Turnbull or vice-versa… they’re both wets. I just can’t picture that happening with the right being so dominant in the party right now.

  30. I’m torn. I so want Abbott gone as PM because he’s a disgrace, but on the other hand his leadership represents the best chance to be gone with the coalition govt next election!

  31. [I hear it’s on for Tuesday and Morrison will run. ]

    No, can’t see that happening. My local member is engaged throughout the Oz day weekend across his electorate. And it’s a huge electorate in terms of space.

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