BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings you a probe deep into the innards of the parties’ fortunes state by state.

Essential Research will end the silly season polling drought early next week, and we might also get a Morgan result if the precedent of last year is anything to go by. Newspoll is probably about three more weeks away, Ipsos maybe another week after that, and with Galaxy and ReachTEL you can never really tell. In the meantime, you can enjoy the detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack which I have taken to publishing on a quarterly basis. If you’d like commentary with that, you can read it at Crikey if you’re a subscriber, as you should be. If looming state elections are more your bag, check the two posts beneath this one for fresh polling from Queensland and New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns”

Comments Page 2 of 17
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  1. I agree. Where will it end?

    [Another vote for politicians staying away from private funerals – I would extend this to soldiers killed in battle – the appropriate person in that case is the GG.]

    If it’s a state matter, then the Gov-Gen.

  5. GG: my understanding from media reports was that the PM’s office made the initial approach to the family.

    In any event, I’m not even sure that it would be appropriate if some of the relatives asked him to attend (did every single one of them want him there or just some).. The PM is constantly bring asked to go to all sorts of events. I just don’t think it’s the PM’s business to attend such an event. Even though eight children died – a horrific and thankfully rare event – they are still private citizens; not soldiers, not celebrities.

    I don’t think the media should be at private funerals either, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for that!

  6. meher baba@23

    I have found that many people don’t agree with me about this, but I am dumbfounded that Abbott and, consequently, Shorten (who can’t afford to be seen to be different in this respect) are attending the funeral of the stabbed children in Cairns. On the back of last year’s attendance – during a parliamentary sitting and missing a question time FFS – at the private funeral of a second-string cricketer who happened to suffer an on-field death. What next?

    Many thousands of people die in distressing circumstances in Australia each year: take the case of that poor little girl run over in Sydney yesterday. Are Abbott and Shorten going to attend the funerals of each and every one of them?

    To me, it’s political ambulance-chasing, which -since MH-370 – seems to be our current PM’s main focus.

    It’s ridiculous. Someone in public life – a politician, a journo – should come out and say something. Private grief should remain private.

    Perhaps Shorten, when he becomes PM, could suggest that, in future, where official attendance at any private funeral could be the responsibility of the G-G, with the relevant state governor as a backup.

    And our elected pollies could go back to doing the jobs we elect and pay them to do.

    Well I for one agree 200% with your sentiments.

  7. MTBW:

    From memory at the time those kids died there was a bit happening. That Air Asia plane crashed, which Abbott did comment on, bizarrely. But I can’t recall whether he released a statement about the Cairns tragedy.

    If he didn’t then attending the funeral is even more inappropriate.

  8. ajm@34

    Another vote for politicians staying away from private funerals – I would extend this to soldiers killed in battle – the appropriate person in that case is the GG.

    The funerals they SHOULD attend in their public capacity are for people who have played a prominent role in our national life (not restricted to politics of course).

    NO!!!

    Politicians, other than perhaps the local member, should stay well away from such events unless the soldier were particularly notable, say a VC holder or a General.

  10. [37
    Greensborough Growler]

    Other than your puny attempts, there is nothing censorious in the remarks of the bludgers.

    Abbott has gate-crashed a funeral, supposedly on behalf of the people. What he has actually done is to introduce all the elements of political theatre – partisan rancour, manipulation, posturing, duplicity, one-up-man-ship, publicity hunting – into a moment that ought to be private and peaceful.

    He has requisitioned grief for his own political purposes. In this, he shames us all. He is an absolute shocker.

  11. confessions

    I can’t recall either but when did we start as I said before turning a funeral of eight children into a photo op particularly when one of the leaders doesn’t appear to have a heart.

  12. mb,

    I read that the family requested a private audience with the PM. So, you can take that at face value or not.

    Most mainstream Australians will have no problem with Abbott and Shorten attending for the reasons I outlined earlier. In fact I’d expect overwhelming indifference and a pat on the back to quinella popular opinion.

    It’s only I blogs like PB where everything is seen through the prism of hatred for Abbott and an unshakeable view that everything he does is political opportunism that you will see the extraordinary feral commentary.

    The reality is he is going to the funeral. PBers will have to get over themselves, accept the reality or go even more feral and irrelevant.

    The last option is the one I’m backing.

    I know what horse I’ll be backing in that race.

    The world of PB wil disapprove. People like me will shrug their shoulders and

  14. Abbott commented on the Cairns tragedy very soon after it was known. However, when it appeared that it was from within the family, he said nothing.

  15. As much as I loath this PM he was criticized very heavily here for showing no interest in the 8 murders in Cairns and now he is being criticized for attending the ceremony. Seems a bit inconsistent.

  16. WeWantPaul@65

    As much as I loath this PM he was criticized very heavily here for showing no interest in the 8 murders in Cairns and now he is being criticized for attending the ceremony. Seems a bit inconsistent.

    It is a matter of responding appropriately.

    He seems to lack the sensitivity to work it out for himself and seems to either receive no sound advice or, if he does, he ignores it.

  17. The problem with the PM attending events is that there is a domino effect. It becomes political. The LOTO is then criticised if they don’t attend. The State Premier feels obliged. The media turn up and report it endlessly on TV. It’s too much.

    I’m sure this is a comparatively recent phenomenon. Can anyone remember how it started?

    If Margie went, it would show sympathy without the other effects.

  18. It is my understanding that the family did not want polititians to attend the funeral, but relented on the condition that they got to speak to the PM in private.

  19. According to CNN (20 Dec.) this is what Abbott said soon after the discovery of the killings.
    ‘”The news out of Cairns is heartbreaking,” Prime Minister Tony Abbott said in a statement. “All parents would feel a gut-wrenching sadness at what has happened. This is an unspeakable crime.”‘

  20. lizzie:

    And where does it end? Eight deaths in a freeway pile up necessitates the presence of the PM, LOTO and state premier at each of the funerals?

    Madness.

  21. [62
    Greensborough Growler

    I read that the family requested a private audience with the PM. So, you can take that at face value or not.]

    He has obviously sucked you in.

    Abbott’s a gate-crasher…plain and simple!

  23. Roger Miller

    So would that mean that the PM insisted on going.

    The word “relented”is very interesting.

    Does anyone know for sure that Shorten is attending it has been mentioned that he is – could be wrong.

  26. Reading that Libtika stuff, to me it comes across as a plea..”Just find a new line of bullshit Tony, & we’ll be right behind ya!”.
    I wrote at the end of the last thread that I regard Simkin’s new position as simply an interdivisional transfer.

  27. briefly,

    For one who demands evidence as the base for all your usual conclusions, you seem to be a little off course.

    At this time, there is nothing but anecdotes and PB posters’ recollections of the situation. No doubt, a more substantive report will emerge. Then you will know for sure.

    However, the only person sucked in atm is you being sucked in by your base prejudices and uninformed wankery.

  28. If I had to guess how the politicians got to the funeral for the eight children, I’d say the PM’s office took the initiative and got permission for the PM to go, then the PM invited the LOTO in a spirit of bipartisanship, and the LOTO went because he didn’t want to look like a dick. But if had been up to Shorten, it would have remained a private event.

  29. Thanks vic

    If it was one of my children there is no way on earth I would like either the PM or the ALP leader there.

    I would be grieving uncontrollably.

  32. Bemused
    [NO!!!

    Politicians, other than perhaps the local member, should stay well away from such events unless the soldier were particularly notable, say a VC holder or a General.]

    Please reed my posts before commenting on them in future.

  34. ajm@82

    Bemused

    NO!!!

    Politicians, other than perhaps the local member, should stay well away from such events unless the soldier were particularly notable, say a VC holder or a General.


    Please reed my posts before commenting on them in future.

    I did read it and don’t understand what your point is.

  36. Turning funerals into political events is a repulsive recent trend. Politicians do not belong at that funeral of the children, other than the local member and maybe Councillors.

    I do not think they belong at the funerals of soldiers either.

    I do not think Abbott or Shorten belonged at the Hughs funeral either. I WOULD have been tolerant of a cricket tragic such as Howard attending and for an ALP representative Rodney Cavalier. In the last month or so we have had three public funerals attended by our leaders. Now at three days each (because travel involved, we are looking at something between 5-10% of the time of the PM taken up with funerals.

    If the government and opposition MUST be represented at funerals, christenings, weddings etc, let that be a useful role for former PMs and members still on the public payroll due to superannuation etc.

  37. Bemused

    I said very clearly that politicians should not attend private funerals and also should not attend funerals of soldiers – leaving that to the GG.

    I then made an entirely separate point that they SHOULD attend funerals of people who have made a significant contribution to our public life. Since you seem unable to comprehend what that means I’ll give you a few examples: ex Prime Ministers, ex Governors General, State Premiers, prominent artists, scientists, doctors etc etc.

    The second point did not refer to soldiers at all.

  38. ajm

    I do not think Abbott should have attended Gough Whitlam’s funeral. Malcolm Fraser yes becuase the two shared some memories but not Abbott and probably not Howard.

  41. I think, in general, politicians should be doing a lot more governing and a lot less public grandstanding. But you gotta get that media cycle.

    I think the “Eddie Everywhere” tag is less politically damaging than “aloof and uncaring” which is why pollies have turned into mourners-in-chief. Would be nice if they stood above it but our glorious media won’t allow it.

  46. ajm@87

    Bemused

    I said very clearly that politicians should not attend private funerals and also should not attend funerals of soldiers – leaving that to the GG.

    I then made an entirely separate point that they SHOULD attend funerals of people who have made a significant contribution to our public life. Since you seem unable to comprehend what that means I’ll give you a few examples: ex Prime Ministers, ex Governors General, State Premiers, prominent artists, scientists, doctors etc etc.

    The second point did not refer to soldiers at all.

    I differed with your first point as I think it more appropriate for a local member of parliament to attend such funerals in some circumstances. e.g. the local member attended the funerals of both my parents as my father had been an ALP member and knew him.

    On your second point, which I took to follow on from your first, my examples were military, but equally applicable to non-military prominent citizens as you now suggest.

    I accept no responsibility for not giving your ambiguity the interpretation you wanted.

  47. [According to Bloomberg News, the Center for American Progress and the CDC, Americans are now more likely to die from gunshot injuries than in auto accidents. ]

  48. If Americans want to “carry” at all times, they’ll have to invent a waterproof gun they can take into the bath or shower. Or swimming pool.

  49. I think that private funerals should remain private. Should official representation be deemed appropriate at the funeral of a prominent Australian or at the funerals of the vistims of high profile disasters or crimes, the Governor General, relevant State Governor or a delegate representing them would be the appropriate person to attend. This includes deaths of armed forces personnel in combat.

    Obviously this isn’t a hard and fast rule. It is appropriate for the serving and past Prime Ministers to attend the funeral of a past Prime Minister, for example. I would like to see Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten quietly get together at some stage and agree on appropriate guidelines.

  50. Back in the day, Mae West would probably have been confident that the man was pleased to see her. Now it’s more likely to be a gun.

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