BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings you a probe deep into the innards of the parties’ fortunes state by state.

Essential Research will end the silly season polling drought early next week, and we might also get a Morgan result if the precedent of last year is anything to go by. Newspoll is probably about three more weeks away, Ipsos maybe another week after that, and with Galaxy and ReachTEL you can never really tell. In the meantime, you can enjoy the detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack which I have taken to publishing on a quarterly basis. If you’d like commentary with that, you can read it at Crikey if you’re a subscriber, as you should be. If looming state elections are more your bag, check the two posts beneath this one for fresh polling from Queensland and New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. good morning all, in the words of Elton John ” I’m still standing”. Seems like huge majorities can buy you two terms after all?

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Not crazy gunmen but calculated says John Birmingham.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/paris-shooting-charlie-hebdo-gunmen-were-not-crazy-just-calculated-20150109-12k7dm.html
    The toll of fearless free speech.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/paris-attacks-the-toll-of-fearless-free-speech-20150108-12kbfk.html
    The scourge of racism will accelerate in Europe.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/fears-charlie-hebdo-massacre-will-escalate-islamophobia-20150108-12ka7t.html
    Latika Bourke – Abbott must stop baffling the voters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbott-must-stop-baffling-the-voters-20150109-12kv1q.html
    Ah! The underbelly of Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-shootings-michael-ibrahim-peace-talks-failed-in-the-days-before-attack-20150109-12l0zm.html
    Sydney’s Green Square – a transport infrastructure time bomb.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/transport-demands-growing-at-green-square-the-densest-site-in-australia-20150109-12l0se.html
    I wouldn’t want the locals to catch this mongrel.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/manhunt-for-man-who-stole-audi-involved-fatal-police-chase-20150109-12layf.html
    Policing Ohio style.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-police-who-shot-12yearold-tamir-rice-dead-rendered-no-aid-20150109-12kuxm.html
    Lenore Taylor calls out Can-Do Newman’s big spending project announcement.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/09/queensland-election-2015-campbell-newman-spending-promises
    Is Great Britain headed back to the 1930s?
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/1/9/europe/britain-headed-back-1930s

  9. Section 2 . . .

    Our mean government.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/our-mean-government-and-the-not-so-happy-season,7241
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/01/09/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-162/
    Cormann contradicts Robb over GST.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/changes-to-gst-to-come-labor-thinks-so-20150109-12l66j.html
    The ADF has picked some nice friends to help in Iraq.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-special-forces-work-with-iraqi-security-group-accused-of-killing-prisoners-torture-20150109-12kuou.html
    “Never mind Newman but can Abbott recover?” asks Michael Gordon.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/taking-the-plunge-in-the-silly-season-20150109-12kuid.html
    Will Abbott risk another round of ridicule and get the Queen to bestow more knights and dames (deliberate non-capitalisation on my part)? The royal family has its own problems, too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/royals-flushed-with-worries-as-baby-glow-fades-20150109-12kg2h.html
    The Senate committee is going to carpet the ASIC chief over this slip up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/asics-medcraft-faces-carpeting-from-senators-over-fraud-case-20150109-12l2qx.html
    The 100 year war on public service sickies.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/national-archives-documents-reveal-the-100year-war-against-public-service-sickies-20150109-12ij27.html
    Alan Moir – there’s a terrorist on the bus!

    This cartoon from David Pope leads to very sober thought.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html

  10. [MOUNTAIN cattlemen should be recognised nationally as a “living culture”, Victorian senator Bridget McKenzie says.]

    [..State Environment Minister Lisa Neville said at the time that: “The science is clear — grazing in the high country has no value in reducing bushfire risk.”

    But Senator McKenzie argued the science should continue to be questioned and different questions needed to be asked.
    ]

    Yep, when the science doesn’t give you the results you want, just try again…

    [“Let’s look at how we can do it sustainably rather than just whether or not we should, which automatically discounts the behaviour of an entire industry,” she said.

    “If you’re going to ask ‘Does grazing impact on the environment’, well of course it does, but that’s a simple question to ask of a complex thing when there’s multiple issues.

    “It’s a management issue — given feral animals like deer and dogs are already in the parks with no management of where they graze and how they breed, we could actually have strategic grazing of cattle throughout the park in a way that gets the balance right if we did an in-depth scientific trial.”]

    So bad things are happening environmentally in National Parks, so that means we can let more bad things happen?

    [“We have a rich indigenous cultural identity we are increasingly celebrating — as well we should — and I would argue as do the cattlemen,” she said.

    It’s a sentiment the Mountain Cattlemen’s Association president Charlie Lovick would whole-heartedly support — he’s a sixth-generation cattleman.

    “Nobody can deny that it is not a cultural connection, we’re absolutely connected — we’ve probably now got the longest continuous connection to the land and with that comes knowledge,” he said
    ]

    The cheek of it. Now McKenzie – and the mountain cattlemen- are basically arguing they’re indigenous.

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2808469/mountain-cattle-part-of-heritage/?cs=11

  12. From last thread:

    Swamprat

    [The IPA are not anarchist. They are impatient communists. … They support the withering away of the State but BEFORE economic equality]

    Err no … Anarchists and communists are opposed to all forms of power of one human over another. That includes class power. Anarchists thought the state could be junked immediately and that when it was, class power would vanish. Communists thought classes would weaken and vanish with material abundance and that since the state was merely an instrument of class power, it would atrophy (‘wither’) and eventually vanish.

    The IPA are neither anarchist nor communist but rather advocates of the direct power of the boss class over working folk unconstrained by state power but underwritten by it whenever working folk resist.

  13. Given that the Abbott government has gotten Australia more depressed than a Pearl Jam album, I think a more appropriate theme song would be “Can’t Find a Better Man” (in Cabinet).

  14. lizzie

    correct. And, off the record, other cattle grazers would express resentment at the easy ride those priviledged few got.

    Of course, farmers being the strong unionists they are, on the record they sang a different song!

  15. Sympathy to France and the victims over the terror attacks, and compliments to the French police for their courage. Also kudos to France for realising this is no time to demonise all muslim immigrants. Right now the best thing they could do would be to increase budgets to train unemployed French Algerian youth. A positive response is needed.

    Have a good day all.

  16. Zoomster

    So a sixth generation cattleman reckons he has certain rights to use land.

    So he and his ilk would have no problem with people who can trace their heritage back tens of thousands of years having rights to use land?

    If only these people knew how silly they made therselves look.

  19. Morning all

    Latika Bourke has outdone herself. What a load of tripe.

    Meanwhile i found this by Jacqueline Maley re Prince Andrew enjoyable

    [Will Prime Minister Tony Abbott dare name any knights ‘n dames in 2015? It was nearly a year ago, when the Abbott government was still young, doe-eyed and enthusiastic for ideological frolics that it announced imperial honours would be re-introduced.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/royals-flushed-with-worries-as-baby-glow-fades-20150109-12kg2h.html

  22. Morning everybody. What on earth is happening in Paris? Just crazy times. But I agree with Socrates: the FRench authorities don’t seem to be using this as an opportunity to divide the country, and that’s a very good thing.

  23. I have found that many people don’t agree with me about this, but I am dumbfounded that Abbott and, consequently, Shorten (who can’t afford to be seen to be different in this respect) are attending the funeral of the stabbed children in Cairns. On the back of last year’s attendance – during a parliamentary sitting and missing a question time FFS – at the private funeral of a second-string cricketer who happened to suffer an on-field death. What next?

    Many thousands of people die in distressing circumstances in Australia each year: take the case of that poor little girl run over in Sydney yesterday. Are Abbott and Shorten going to attend the funerals of each and every one of them?

    To me, it’s political ambulance-chasing, which -since MH-370 – seems to be our current PM’s main focus.

    It’s ridiculous. Someone in public life – a politician, a journo – should come out and say something. Private grief should remain private.

    Perhaps Shorten, when he becomes PM, could suggest that, in future, where official attendance at any private funeral could be the responsibility of the G-G, with the relevant state governor as a backup.

    And our elected pollies could go back to doing the jobs we elect and pay them to do.

  25. confessions

    Watched a lot of it on News24 last night and then fell asleep.

    There is a whole lot of ego involved with this for mine of the “we’ll show you what we can do” style.

  26. meher baba:

    I 100% agree with you. I said yesterday if there wasn’t an election campaign in Qld it’s doubtful any of them would be attending that funeral.

  27. [23
    meher baba

    I have found that many people don’t agree with me about this]

    I am one of those who do agree with you. For mine, the very last thing that should happen is that bereavement and mourning should be turned into public – let alone, political – spectacles. It is a terrible development and the sooner it ends the better.

  30. I’ll join in on the funeral

    I think I will have to leave instructions that if I die in a plane crash, hostage drama, terrorist attack … You get the drift … NO POLITICIAN is to attend my funeral.

  31. [28
    MTBW

    meher and confessions

    I am with both of you very tacky!]

    I can hardly think of anything worse from the viewpoint of the family. Their loss and their anguish has been subordinated to political competition. It is utterly disgraceful.

  32. Chris Kenny knows how to stop the kinds of terrorism we’ve seen in Paris this week:

    [Yet in Australia two years ago we saw meekness from the left-liberal media in response to Labor’s efforts to partially regulate press content. And the Abbott government was forced to abandon plans to reform racial discrimination laws after losing the public debate when Attorney-General George Brandis said, rather inelegantly, that people had a right to be bigots. ]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/taking-offence-at-the-rise-of-a-new-endarkenment/story-e6frg71x-1227180070071

    Another meaningless culture war! That ought to do it!!

  33. Meher Baba @23: seconded.

    In this instance I won’t attribte base motives to the Prime Minister or Opposition Leader, but this is very much a situation where the family should be left in peace.

  34. Another vote for politicians staying away from private funerals – I would extend this to soldiers killed in battle – the appropriate person in that case is the GG.

    The funerals they SHOULD attend in their public capacity are for people who have played a prominent role in our national life (not restricted to politics of course).

  36. confessions et al

    Just what you would want at the funeral for eight young children sadly killed by their mother and aunt.

    The grief around that situation would never leave you.

    It is not the place for a “photo op”.

    Leave those poor young children to rest in peace.

  37. The attendance by the PM and LOO at this funeral is very appropriate in this case.

    The murder of eight children is a totally shocking event. The heart of all Australians is reaching out to the family and broader community. Having our most senior political representatives attend is simply a manifestation of that outpouring of grief.

    I understand the family has actually asked for a private meeting with the PM. So, accusations of political grandstanding or political opportunism are way out of line.

    Sometimes, the all censorious PB commentariat needs to really take a deep breath and put down their guns.

  38. Michael Gordon is a bit miffed at the silly season pollie-bombing too:

    January in Australia, at least until Australia Day, tends to be a politics-free period, a time when political leaders surface sparingly, and usually only in response to natural disasters, extreme weather events or heinous crimes. This explains why Labor leader Bill Shorten felt compelled to interrupt his own holiday to tweet that he had asked the man acting in his place (Tony Burke) to ask the Prime Minister to increase assistance to bushfire-affected communities in South Australia. Shorten ends his break this weekend, when he will join Queensland Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk on the hustings.

    Shocks aside, January is a time when the nation’s gaze shifts languidly from the Sydney Test to the Australian Open tennis, from the beach to the barbie and back again.
    …
    With the polls going in the wrong direction, Newman is gambling that the risks of intruding on the vacations of his constituents are less than those of waiting another month or two.

    Essentially Newman – and most emphatically Abbott – are obsessed about their own political survival and are taking the rare step of intruding into our festive/relaxation season with those obsessions. They should be punished for it. The whole country needs some time off from their paranoia, vanity and self-obsession. Whether they like it or not, not everyone is as dedicated to their troubles with their electorates as they are.

    With Newman you can half-understand. He wants to win an election and an election a few months early squeaks past the line as barely justifiable.

    But in Abbott’s case there is no upside for him except a possible polling improvement. We are being herded, hectored and hassled into improving our opinions of him so that when we’re polled we can say so. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Abbott is like the pest at a party who continually puts the word on every female present until one of them – perhaps a bit the worse for wear, or perhaps just to shut him up – gives in.

    It worked for him once, over Christmas 2009-2010, just after he was elected. Rudd was in a state of shock after Copenhagen and Abbott took advantage of it. With Rudd sulking, Abbott had virtually a free run from an at first bemused and ultimately an enthusiastic media.

    Latika Bourke today laments the fact that Abbott has lost his way with both the people and the media. All he has to do to fix this, though, is to come up with some policies and a better communications strategy. Not much of a big ask, that, eh?

    She seems to be sanguine about the idea that a Prime Minister who boasted he had 200 policies ready to go and fully costed, who was prepared to take over “in a heartbeat” back in 2010, and 2011 and 2012, and ever since, is still floundering around with worn out promises, tired slogans from two campaigns ago (and well before that), plus a farcical physical makeover (new hairdo, better suits, blue ties and let’s add some other stuff, like suspected botox treatments) that’s supposed to make him look “Prime Ministerial”.

    And did I mention no polices of greater status than brain farts?

    He doesn’t get it, and neither does Latika. “Looking Prime Ministerial” isn’t the point: acting “Prime Ministerial” is. Hiring Mark Simkin for a media makeover won’t work unless there is some political plasticine for Simkin to shape. But first Simkin has to organize a nice bold color scheme. Trying to get back to the original primaries from the messy grey blob he’s working with at the moment won’t suffice. Simkin has to start again. Trying to get Abbott to recognize that there are other media organizations besides his patrons at News Corp would be a good start. He seems lately to have even forgotten his pals at Holt St., who have resorted to writing increasingly pleading love letters to their protege. Not a good look.

    Abbott’s problem is that he is constitutionally incapable of admitting a mistake. He always has to be right. To an absolutist by nature (we know where he stands, don’t we?) there is no going back, only adding more baggage to weigh himself down. He can’t let anything go, because to a man in love with himself and his own political instincts, perfection is not negotiable. And there’s the little problem of his critics pouncing on any admission of error, just like he did himself when in Opposition. What goes around comes around. Make your bed etc.

    So, as a result, we get pollie-bombed right through Christmas and the New Year. This is a turn-off, not a turn-on. In any case, the only news he has is bad: sieges, murders, fear, funerals and new taxes (whether hosing them down or talking them up)… not exactly the punter’s idea of nirvana for Christmas, or confidence.

    As the ever-enthusiastic and admiring Latika says, a few good ideas might help, but that would entail ditching some old ones, nice, comfy security blankets that got him into power, but won’t keep him there unless he’s prepared to admit he’s not only wrong, but fallible. Fat chance of that.

  40. Confessions @ 32

    I am gobsmacked to see the relevance of Kenny’s point to this tragedy, other than there are some on the right who are determined to profiteer (in an ideological sense) from any tragedy that occurs. For me, the satirical description of Kenny doing to a dog what he does to press integrity was actually kind.

  44. Went to the cricket with the father on Wednesday (a traditional outing). Used to enjoy going to see a test match. A chance to unwind, reflect, have a chat, read the paper, keep an eye on the cricket. Now, every spare moment either has crap music blaring out through crap speakers or some advertising plug for this or that. Paid about $150 each for the tickets and you get bombarded with that.
    Father enjoyed it though, because his hearing is shot anyway.

  47. MTBW:

    Did Abbott even remark even in a ‘thoughts and prayers’ way at the time of those kids’ deaths? I can’t remember.

    But I too think it’s inappropriate for political leaders to attend their funeral.

  49. MTBW,

    I didn’t ask you to respond.

    My ego has very little to do about whether the PM and LOO should attend this particular funeral.

    It’s my opinion and I think I’m right.

    You can please yourself.

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