Newspoll and Galaxy: 53-47 and 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

Poll number two for the Queensland election confirms the impression of poll number one in showing a tight race, and finds support for Palmer United at a quarter of its level from six months ago.

Two more polls from Queensland, from Newspoll in The Weekend Australian and Galaxy in the Courier-Mail, both suggest the commencement of hostilities has served to push the Liberal National Party into the lead. The Newspoll survey was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 801, which is a little on the small side by its standards, and it records a five point hike for the LNP on the primary vote compared with the aggregated October-December poll, pushing it out to 42%. Labor is also up a point to 37%, with the balance accounted for by three point drops for the Greens to 7% and “others” to 13%, with Katter’s Australian Party remaining at 1%. On two-party preferred, a 50-50 result in the previous poll turns into a 53-47 lead to the LNP. Campbell Newman’s approval rating is up three to 41% with disapproval steady at 51%, while Annastacia Palszczuk is at 38% on both measures, respectively being steady and up four. However, she’s actually narrowed the gap on preferred premier, with Newman’s lead down from 44-35 to 42-38. A question on firmness of voting intention finds it to be a little weaker than usual, while 47% say they expect the LNP to win compared with 31% for Labor.

The Galaxy result is in the same ballpark in having the LNP lead at 52-48, compared with 50-50 for its last poll in mid-November. The primary votes are 41% for the LNP, up four on the previous Galaxy poll; 38% for Labor, who are steady; 8% for the Greens, down one; and 3% for Palmer United, down four. The Palmer United result compares with 12% in the Galaxy poll from August, and reduces them to parity with Katter’s Australian Party (Newspoll doesn’t provide a dedicated measure for Palmer United, but conclusions are there to be drawn from the three-point drop in the others vote). Despite the improved result for the LNP on voting intention, the poll finds Campbell Newman’s lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk narrowing from 47-37 to 45-40. However, the leaders’ respective personal ratings are little changed, with Newman at 41% approval (steady) and 52% disapproval (up one), and Palaszczuk at 39% (up two) and 38% (up one). The poll encompassed 800 respondents; not sure of the exact field work dates, but obviously it was over the last two or three evenings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

126 thoughts on “Newspoll and Galaxy: 53-47 and 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. 1. Yes to some extent and probably to a small degree.

    2. Nothing of substance that I am aware of.

    3. We will find out in three weeks 🙂

  5. The second part of the Newspoll released

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/lnp-holds-ace-cards-but-hand-has-slipped/story-fnr8rfrw-1227181571969

    LNP holds ace cards, but hand has slipped
    ANDREW FRASER THE AUSTRALIAN JANUARY 12, 2015 12:00AM

    THE Liberal National Party is seen as Queensland’s most competent managers, but the advantage it has enjoyed over Labor in health, education and transport has been severely diminished over its first term.

    The Newman government’s credentials have been enhanced in the areas of law and order and economic management during the past three years, according to an exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian.

    The most recent survey, conducted last week and revealed in The Weekend Australian, also showed the LNP had crept ahead of the ALP, leading them by 53 per cent to 47 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis after the two were locked on 50 per cent support.

    The Newspoll shows 82 per cent of Queenslanders regard health as one of the most important issue in the election, ahead of education (72 per cent); cost of living (69 per cent); the state economy (68 per cent); law and order (63 per cent); privatisation of state assets (44 per cent); public transport and roads (44 per cent) and climate change (35 per cent).

    The LNP is seen as a better manager in all areas bar education and climate change. A historical survey of Newspolls shows that over its first term in government, the LNP has lost the big ­advantages it held over the ALP in being seen to be a better manager of the health and transport systems, while at the end of the term the ALP is seen to be a better manager of the education system.

    Newspolls taken before the past four Queensland elections show the ALP was regarded as the most competent to manage health until 2012, when a series of scandals such as the $1 billion payroll disaster soured the perception.

    In the weeks prior to the 2012 election, the LNP enjoyed a huge lead over the ALP in public perception of health management, with 47 per cent thinking the LNP more capable compared with 26 per cent for the ALP.

    In this election, 41 per cent think the LNP is better compared with 36 per cent who preferred the ALP.

  6. The more millions Can-do pours into Ashgrove, the less there is to spread around the other 88(?) seats.

    Do Queenslanders think that is fair?

  8. 106

    No, but he hasn’t spent a cent there before the election was called so he probably needs to do all the pork-barrelling he can to win the seat, which IMHO he will.

    With one of the betting agencies the LNP has been backed from $2.80 to $2.05 in the first week of the campaign to win Ashgrove and are $1.11 to win the election.

  10. The party who commits to funding to extend the Gold Coast Light Rail from GC university hospital to Helensvale Train Station in the north (connecting Surfers Paradise to the theme parks) and from Pacific Fair at Broadbeach to Coolangatta Airport (connecting the airport to Surfers Paradise) at the south gets my vote.

  11. aaronkirk@110

    The party who commits to funding to extend the Gold Coast Light Rail from GC university hospital to Helensvale Train Station in the north (connecting Surfers Paradise to the theme parks) and from Pacific Fair at Broadbeach to Coolangatta Airport (connecting the airport to Surfers Paradise) at the south gets my vote.

    Easily bought with a bit of pork.

  12. Bemused

    Those extensions to the light rail make lots of sense and should be a funded infrastructure project. the Gold Coast has become a metropolis and it needs decent public transport.

    NSW might think about joining it also

  13. aaronkirk

    With one of the betting agencies the LNP has been backed from $2.80 to $2.05 in the first week of the campaign to win Ashgrove and are $1.11 to win the election.

    Probably the only reason it’s gone down from $2.80 to $2.05 is the rise of number of people betting Newman to win in a hope of an upset.

    This is not an indication of whether Newman will retain his seat or not. It is an indication of how the bets are going. If the betting companies don’t reduce the winning and Newman does win, there’ll be a lot they have to payout.

  14. There is no certainty that Ashgrove will change consistently with any statewide trend. Ashgrove will come down to the voters in the seat struggling with the conflicting issues of dislike for Newman verses the benefit of having the premier as your local member.

    I think it will be closer than people think IF the LNP win government.

    If Newman loses it could end up be some kind of refreshing of the government under a new leader. I hope the lose the A-G in the shakeout 🙂

  15. The more millions Can-do pours into Ashgrove, the less there is to spread around the other 88(?) seats.

    Do Queenslanders think that is fair?

    Of course it isn’t fair – and introducing a PR electoral system would most likely get rid of that style of electoral campaigning.

    However, the people whose votes count won’t even be aware of what is being spent where.

    I’d also expect Newman to be re-elected in Ashgrove, unforunately.

  16. John Birmingham gives away any chance of a job working for Rupert by asking this valid question: Will Spring John Broek-borg be premier of Queensland after the electino?
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/blunt-instrument/queensland-election-will-springjohn-broekborg-be-premier-20150112-12ms49.html

    Madonna King seems equally uninterested in a job in the NMurdoch press. Psephologically, her logic is flawless:
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/that-thinking-feeling/campbell-newman-is-lying-to-you-and-he-knows-it-20150107-12juv0.html

  17. Interesting that Campbell is now promising almost $5000 per voter in Ashgrove.

    Extending the GC LRT to the heavy rail line at Parklands would make a lot of sense in transport terms, and would not be pork barreling. Extending it to Helensvale would cost more than the theme parks are worth.

  18. Again King is assuming a consistent swing across the state which pretty well never happens. If a sophomore effect is real then it is likely the effect would be greater for a leader.

  24. All is right with the world – this election will not be the first in years to not be described as the ‘Seinfeld election’, heard it on ABC24 this morning. Journalists definitely don’t need to plumb too much creativity in their day jobs.

  25. David it’s not that the questions have “a leftish bias”. I believe 75% of people have a reasonable social conscience and a progressive attitude.

    However the ability of the MSM, shock jocks & TV garbage to slew them away from the left side of politics is far stronger than many give credit.

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