Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition in New South Wales

New South Wales voters may not know who he is, but a new poll from Galaxy finds them slightly more inclined to vote for new Labor leader Luke Foley than they were for his predecessor.

A new poll for the Daily Telegraph by Galaxy provides an indication that the change in leadership might have done Labor some good, notwithstanding its finding that a pitiful 19% of respondents were able to identify the new leader as Luke Foley (1% opting for John Robertson, 14% somebody else, and 66% owning up that they didn’t know). The poll has the Coalition’s with two-party lead of 54-46, down from 56-44 in the last such poll in late November. There is also a two-point shift from Coalition to Labor on the primary vote, respectively to 44% and 36%, with the Greens steady on 11%. However, Mike Baird’s lead as preferred premier is at 47-16, which compares with 49-18 against Robertson in the last poll. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.

The information isn’t of much use now, but Essential Research’s last polling before the leadership change had the Coalition leading 52-48 from primary votes of 43% for the Coalition, 38% for Labor and 7% for the Greens. The polling encompassed the first three weeks of December, with a sample of 880.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

11 thoughts on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition in New South Wales”

  2. http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/voters-dont-know-nsw-labors-new-leader-luke-foley-yet-the-party-has-gained-in-polls/story-fnii5s3x-1227180139586

    Voters don’t know NSW Labor’s new leader Luke Foley yet the party has gained in polls
    January 10, 2015 12:00AM
    Andrew Clennell State Political Editor
    The Daily Telegraph

    JUST 19 per cent of voters can name Luke Foley as the new leader of NSW Labor, yet the party’s stocks have risen two points since his elevation.

    Today’s Galaxy Daily Telegraph poll has Premier Mike Baird’s Coalition at 54 per cent (down two) to Labor at 46 per cent (up two) on a two-party-preferred basis, in the best result for Labor since May, soon after Barry O’Farrell resigned as premier.

    But when asked the name of the Labor leader in NSW, only 19 per cent of respondents could name Mr Foley.

    In a sign people at least know John Robertson has been replaced, only 1 per cent named the former leader, 14 per cent said “someone else” and 66 per cent were “uncommitted”.

    If the Galaxy Poll result were uniform across the state, Labor would pick up 17 seats in the March 28 election (with a 10.2 per cent swing) to see its Legislative Assembly number swell to 40, with the Coalition dropping from 67 seats to 50.

  3. My early prediction for the state election is coalition 49 seats, Labor 42 seats, 2 independents in Lake Macquarie and sydney

  4. Sad to see Foley benefitting from Robbo’s hard work. Labor will end up about 35 seats and a chance for 2019. Foley will be replaced post election by a candidate from the Right. most likely Ryan Park.

  5. ESJ, clueless as ever. Luke Foley has worked incredibly hard for a long time, his work on enviromental policies and awareness is well known , and his intellect is in the stratosphere compared to Baird. Ah, the tightening

  6. Not sure if ESJ meant “Robbo’s hard work” sarcastically. I remembered ESJ was very critical of Robertson prior to the resignation.

  7. And I doubt voters know anyone beyond the state premiere usually. During the Vic elections, the Herald Sun tried asking every candidate to name the state treasurer. Many couldn’t answer the question.

  9. Yes Luke clearly has worked hard – cutting gambling taxes and encouraging problem gamblers appear to be the fruit of his intellectual exertions.

  10. And the Baird government just reduced the protection of the public from their spiv mates and donors, the developers and building industry mates. Checkmate

  11. Another two libs bite the dust. lol. What a shame operation spicer at ICAC was stopped , there must be a few grateful libs out there.

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