ReachTEL: 50-50 in Queensland

The first poll of the Queensland election campaign finds Campbell Newman dangerously placed, despite an improving trend in his personal ratings.

The first poll of the Queensland election campaign has emerged courtesy of the Seven Network, which promptly commissioned the fast workers at ReachTEL to conduct an automated phone poll last night that captured 1583 respondents. So far as voting intention is concerned, the result doesn’t do much to encourage talk of a Liberal National Party recovery achieved on the back of “Operation Boring”. The poll has the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, albeit that this marks a shift from 51-49 in favour of Labor at the last such poll on November 28. Both major parties have recorded a slightly higher primary vote, with Labor’s 38.1% (up 0.8%) being its best result from ReachTEL since the Newman government came to office, and the Liberal National Party’s 40.3% being 1.1% higher than last time. This time the difference comes off “other”, down from 9.1% to 7.7%, rather than Palmer United, which is at 6.3% – only 0.2% down on the November poll, but 9.1% below its peak in July.

There are better indications for Campbell Newman on personal ratings, with his “very good” rating continuing an ascent from 13.4% in early to September to 17.5% in late November to 21.7% now. However, his “very poor” rating has been stable, and at 32.4% is high in absolute terms. Annastacia Palaszczuk’s ratings are perhaps suggestive of a slight tendency for voters to be jumping off the fence, with the middle rating on the five-point scale (“satisfactory”) down from 31.7% in late November to 28.7%, “very good” up 1.4% to 12.9%, and “very poor” up from 16.3% to 19.4%. The overall net ratings, subtracting negative responses from positive, are minus 11.1% for Newman and minus 8.5% for Palaszczuk. Further questions on preferred LNP leader, whether the LNP deserves re-election and who respondents expect to win produce almost identical results from last time, which you can read all about here.

Essential Research has also provided results of state voting intention combined from its weekly polling during the first half of December, which in the case of Queensland encompassed a fairly limited sample of 507. This result had Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, after the LNP led 52-48 in November, with primary votes of 38% for the LNP (down two), 37% for Labor (up two), 10% for the Greens (up two), 5% for Palmer United (down one) and 3% for Katter’s Australian Party (steady).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

77 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50 in Queensland”

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  1. The LNP are sticking to their lie about arresting someone for wearing that “I’m with Stupid” T-shirt. They don’t know who called the police, and they think wearing a T-shirt was “causing public nuisance”. To their shame, the Queensland police meekly followed ordersd from their LNP masters, and Commissioner Ian Stewart has said nothing.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-im-with-stupid-tshirt-mans-lawyer-says-arrest-unjustified-20150108-12ki8p.html

    Inspired by the courage of the cartoonists in France and elsewhere in defending freeedom of speech, we should mount a similar campaign. I’d like to see mass demonstrations with people wearing T-shirts like it, or similar:

    “I’m with Stupid, too”
    “We are all with Stupid”
    “Je Suis Avec Stupide”
    “Nous sommes tous avec stupide”

    I also wonder why no Queensland police ever arrested anyone wearing what were some pretty offensive T-shirts at anti-Julia Gillard protests? For that matter, have people seen what is printed on some t-shirts any time they walk down the nearest shopping mall?

  2. I find the T-shirts of the LNP supporters pretty offensive and their members certainly a public nuisance but I’ve never thought of calling the police. Still live and learn.

  3. kevjonno

    Indeed. At the corner where the T shirt wearer was arrested people from both parties were wearing a range of shirts. It will be very interesting to ask the arresting officer what criteria he used to determine when one was offensive and the others were not. Depending on the answer, it would then be fun to show him a few photos from the convoy of incontinence protesters agains tGillard and ask him wich he deemed offensive.

    That officer will have a lot of explaining to do.

  4. Has anyone considered that the police were doing a public service in rushing to be close to a person wearing an ‘I’m with stupid’ shirt.

  9. Really funny how that implied right of free speech works in Qld.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-state-election-public-servants-warned-over-political-commentary-20150108-12kl8p.html

    Also funny how the person muzzling it is a former BCC employee protege of Campbell Newman who was appointed CEO of Qld Health, presumably on the basis of his past experience running urban utilities and dairy companies. Hospital, dairy, garbage dump… all the same.

  12. [autocrat
    Posted Friday, January 9, 2015 at 11:19 am | PERMALINK
    antony Green calls bullshit on the “disenfranchisement” claims:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-09/claims-early-election-will-disenfranchise-voters-off-the-mark/6008360 ]

    Antony says that people can still enrol after tomorrow but their names won’t appear on the electoral roll and they will have to cast a declaration vote (the same as someone without an ID card).

    The problem is that any normal person would assume that they cannot enrol after tomorrow if they read the advertising or news commentary.

    Neither Newman nor Murdoch are going to remind people of their democratic rights in this regard.

  13. Any normal person would assume that only because the Commonwealth does not allow it. Thankfully Queensland electoral law has a more enlightened view on late enrolment, as does NSW and Victyoria.

    The ECQ will publicise the late enrolment provisions after the rolls close. They want people to go on the roll so they can cast an ordinary vote. Issuing and counting declaration votes is slower and more complicated and the Commission would prefer people to be on the roll and cast ordinary votes.

    In addition, on Australia Day all new citizens will be given enrolment forms and instructions that they should enrol before 30 January so they can vote at the Queensland election.

    There were 64,618 enrolment transactions after the close of rolls in 2012, 18,908 new enrolments and 45,710 changes of address.

  15. Thank you Antony. I must admit that I have always assumed any person who did not register by the published cut off date would be unable to vote. I live in ACT and thankfully have never been in this situation.

  21. The progressive parties should hammer on to the youths to vote anyway even if they haven’t enrolled, but should still encourage them to enrol ASAP.

  24. The neo-liberal-eco0n0omic model in QLand,,and elsewhere like Latin America
    ______________________
    Everywhere the same neo-liberal forc es are trying to use austerity and other measures to destroy the public sector ,sel it to the corporations and reduce wages and benefits
    Thius article looks at the struggl;es against such policies in Latin ASmerica and it made mne think to the battles against Newman’s simliar policies in QLand

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