Two more polls from Queensland, from Newspoll in The Weekend Australian and Galaxy in the Courier-Mail, both suggest the commencement of hostilities has served to push the Liberal National Party into the lead. The Newspoll survey was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 801, which is a little on the small side by its standards, and it records a five point hike for the LNP on the primary vote compared with the aggregated October-December poll, pushing it out to 42%. Labor is also up a point to 37%, with the balance accounted for by three point drops for the Greens to 7% and “others” to 13%, with Katter’s Australian Party remaining at 1%. On two-party preferred, a 50-50 result in the previous poll turns into a 53-47 lead to the LNP. Campbell Newman’s approval rating is up three to 41% with disapproval steady at 51%, while Annastacia Palszczuk is at 38% on both measures, respectively being steady and up four. However, she’s actually narrowed the gap on preferred premier, with Newman’s lead down from 44-35 to 42-38. A question on firmness of voting intention finds it to be a little weaker than usual, while 47% say they expect the LNP to win compared with 31% for Labor.
The Galaxy result is in the same ballpark in having the LNP lead at 52-48, compared with 50-50 for its last poll in mid-November. The primary votes are 41% for the LNP, up four on the previous Galaxy poll; 38% for Labor, who are steady; 8% for the Greens, down one; and 3% for Palmer United, down four. The Palmer United result compares with 12% in the Galaxy poll from August, and reduces them to parity with Katter’s Australian Party (Newspoll doesn’t provide a dedicated measure for Palmer United, but conclusions are there to be drawn from the three-point drop in the others vote). Despite the improved result for the LNP on voting intention, the poll finds Campbell Newman’s lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk narrowing from 47-37 to 45-40. However, the leaders’ respective personal ratings are little changed, with Newman at 41% approval (steady) and 52% disapproval (up one), and Palaszczuk at 39% (up two) and 38% (up one). The poll encompassed 800 respondents; not sure of the exact field work dates, but obviously it was over the last two or three evenings.
The 2PP is LNP 52 (+2) ALP 48 (-2).
http://www.news.com.au/national/galaxy-poll-results-show-lnp-ahead-52-48/story-e6frfkp9-1227180184029
[Galaxy poll results show LNP ahead, 52-48.
January 10, 2015 1:00AM
WEEK one of the election campaign is almost over and the first poll results are in. So, who’s in front?
According to the 800 Queenslanders polled by Galaxy, Campbell Newman is still the preferred premier, with the LNP’s primary vote leaping from 37 per cent in November to 41 per cent, while Labor’s vote remained on 38 per cent.
The poll result shows on a two-party preferred basis, the LNP is now leading Labor 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
The result represents a swing of almost 11 per cent since the LNP’s enormous victory in 2012 when they secured 78 of 89 seats and Labor was left with only seven MPs.
Such a swing would put up to 33 State Government MPs in peril if it was repeated on January 31.
Mr Newman remains ahead of Ms Palaszczuk as preferred premier 45 per cent to 40 per cent. But the gap has halved since November and the Labor leader is ahead of where her predecessor, Anna Bligh, was at the end of the 2012 election.]
Thanks both – post updated.
If Queensland re-elects the Newman LNP, they will get everything they deserve.
No surprise this is the home of batty posters like DTT!
Does this poll mean Tony will suddenly want to cash in on some reflected glory?
This poll is an outlier. It does not match with the general mood that is reflected in public opinion. It is more 50-50
Galaxy also underestimated the Labor vote in Victoria for much of last year. This is probably no different
Galaxy published four polls in Victoria in the second half of last year (plus one in February which I’ll ignore), every one of which had both Labor and the Coalition between 38% and 40%, and the Greens on 12% or 13%. The election result was 38% for Labor (a point below Galaxy’s last poll), 42% for the Coalition (two points higher) and 11.5% for the Greens (1.5% lower).
Labor’s failed again !
Three weeks to go yet, chances are it will still tighten with more policies and election stuff ups to come. In a state with OPV, 41-38 PP still looks a little perilous.
You really need to look at the combined Labor and Green vote versus the LNP. With OPV and the strong anti-Newman mood together with the election timing there are a lot of cards falling in unpredictable ways. The LNP must be worried about their primary vote given that they are essentially friendless.
So at this point the LNP is still in front, Newman is likely to lose his seat, and either side could win depending on the campaign. Minority government anyone?
Socrates
I reckon minority government is possible but with Liz Cunningham retiring Gladstone is a possible major party win and a number of the existing independents were originally elected as major party candidates so may not get back without that backing. The short campaign may also militate against independents getting a run-up.
I would think at this stage a major party win is the most likely, but which party? I think it’s likely to be decided by the dynamics of the campaign as much as anything.
Interestingly the LNP is running a very “masculine” campaign and the Labor campaign is much more “feminine”. Perhaps after a couple of decades of neocon “strength” the public might be getting a bit tired of “strong choices” and big mining projects.
I don’t profess to know the answer at this stage but plan to be very wise retrospect!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/lnp-in-lead-newman-struggles-newspoll/story-fnr8rfrw-1227180214204
[LNP in lead, Newman struggles: Newspoll
The Australian January 10, 2015 12:00AM
Michael McKenna
Reporter
Brisbane
THE Liberal National Party has staged a recovery in the first week of the Queensland election campaign, but Campbell Newman continues to wrestle with his unpopularity among voters.
Since the Queensland Premier called the first January election in Australia in more than a century, the Newman government has lifted from being neck-and-neck with Labor before Christmas to holding a six-percentage-point lead on preferences. According to a Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Weekend Australian from Tuesday to Thursday, the LNP is on 53 per cent to Labor’s 47 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis. The Newman government’s gains have come at the expense of minor parties and independents.
Despite the improved support for the LNP government, which still faces the loss of a swath of seats after its record 2012 election win, Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk is closing the gap as preferred premier.
The polling indicates a 10 per cent swing to Labor which, if uniform, could cost the LNP more than 20 of the 73 seats it holds in the 89-seat unicameral parliament. The government can afford the net loss of 28 seats and still retain power. Under that swing, Mr Newman’s seat of Ashgrove, which he holds by 5.7 per cent, would be reclaimed by former Labor incumbent Kate Jones.
With three weeks to the January 31 poll, the LNP’s primary support has jumped by five points to 42 per cent since the October-December Newspoll, while Labor gained just one point to 37 per cent. The Greens are down three points to 7 per cent, and other minor parties — including the Palmer United Party and independents — have collectively fallen three points to 13 per cent.]
table
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/01/09/1227180/193250-aus-file-qld-election-newspoll.pdf
Darren
You objectionable twerp, I was raised in good old NSW so sadly I am ashamed to say I share a state with you.
I think it is people like you that make me ashamed. I think that it is people like you who are in the ALP that make me embarrassed about being a member. Poeple might think I was like YOU.
Unitary state
Do not be overconfident about Qld. I thought Kate Jones was a definite, but now I am not so sure. She will however put up a bloody good fight.
Encouraging start. Long way to go.
William
I know it was 3:30 AM on a Friday and I can guess that our Darren had been having a long a probably lonely night with just a few glass clad friends, I really feel that post No 4 was an uncalled for insult and evidence of the bullying that does go on too often on this site. It lowers to reputation of your site to allow it.
DTR we QLD’ers can take it.
Sorry DTT
DTT @16
Bravado is probably more helpful than concern for the ALP in this election. They have nothing to lose after the last result.
I think Labor will get about a 10% swing statewide (so lose about 48-52). I still think Newman will lose his seat of Ashgrove. I am hopeful that Labor could win in Southport where we lived, but it seems unlikely – more likely to get the margin down under 5%.
On a national level, it is actually probably better for Federal Labor if a Newman-less (and probably “National”-led) LNP wins narrowly. Then the focus of cuts etc will still firmly be on the Coalition, Federal and State, by the time of the next Federal election. And Queensland is the state where I think the most gains federally will be made.
My experience of living in Queenslad (which prided itself as the “low tax” state then in the 1990s) was that it was the “low service” state. I suppose we may have got a skewed view because we lived on the Gold Coast and apparently a lot of government funding had not kept up with the relative boom in population on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts vis a vis the regional cities. But you noticed it everywhere, just a lack of community services and facilities compared to Victoria where we came from. And the “social security / social fallback” infrastructure was really lacking at all levels.
You just got the feeling that 60,000 “newbies” on the Gold Coast did not seem to matter nearly as much to the government as the 60,000 then living in Rockhampton or other regional cities. And at that stage I believe there were 1,000 people per week moving from Victoria to Queensland, mainly to the South-East corridor Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast.
It amuses me that the Labor diehards were absolutely certain that Labor would win on the basis of a previous 50/50 result, to the extent that they mocked anyone who expressed the opinion that the LNP would narrowly win.
Now, with the polls going the “wrong” way, they are of course incorrect, because somebodies’ gut feeling must be far more accurate than scientifically rigorous opinion polling. What’s the voice of a couple of thousand real people compared to one strongly held feelpinion, after all.
Gotta love partisans.
Anyway. So far I’d say neither campaign has really got off to a great start, although there’s been so much going on elsewhere that there’s no clear air. Think that probably favours the LNP, who would prefer as little scrutiny as possible I suspect…
I take it there’s an MoE of about 3% either ways for Newspoll, and based on this poll, there’s a high chance of a hung parliament.
I take it the preference flow for both polls are based on the previous election, and this one might see a higher exhaust rate on OPV.
WB
Will there be a Qld Bludgertrack? Sorry if this has already been asked and answered.
teh-drewski
I never made a prediction on the polls. I am today (as opposed to yesterday) mildly optimistic about Kate Jones’ chances.
What I am prepared to say is that the electorate is more polarised than in 2012.
Also, Newspoll doesn’t lend much legitimacy to this poll by deliberately lumping PUP to “others” while keeping KAP who remains at 1%.
DDT – my apologies, I wasn’t verballing you. I’d broadly agree with that. I’ve got my appendages crossed for Jones, not that I think the LNP tiger is going to change anything if they repaint the leadership stripes.
If the LNP believes in scientifically rigorous opinion polling, why does it reject scientifically rigorous proof of climate change?
I don’t think anyone suggested the LNP believes in science or rigour, TT.
I shall re-post this. I seem somewhat important news about the Qld election.
Deputy ALP leader quits for personal reasons.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/09/queensland-election-deputy-labor-leader-tim-mulherin-quits-politics
Tom
Mulherin’s father died AND I believe he is personally quite sick.
No big news story. Just a bit rushed announcement because of the snap election.
32
I just though it would get a little more mention. Unfortunate personal reasons, rather than political turmoil, explains part of the reason that it has so little comment.
Any idea who the replacement will be? I presume it will be after the election?
Labor announced Julieanne Gilbert, a Townsville local, former primary school teacher and current Teacher’s Union organiser as their replacement candidate yesterday.
Sorry, Gilbert’s the organiser *for* Townsville – I misread her profile.
She’ll stand in the election as normal.
[Will there be a Qld Bludgertrack? Sorry if this has already been asked and answered.]
It hasn’t been, and there will be.
Thanks William that will be very interesting. Where do you find the time?
Whats the MOE on 800?
Woops did not see 24.
Two Prime Ministers (Bruce and Howard) have lost their seats when their Governments lost the elction, but has any Premier lost their seat despite their Government actually winning?
Don Getty was Premier of Alberta (Province of Canada) for the 1989 election. His party (the “Progressive Conservatives” !) won comfortably, losing 2 of their 61 seats in the 83 seat Assembly. Unfortunately for him, one of those two seats was his. A party colleague resigned and he stood and won a by-election. Maybe this is still on the cards for Newman?
Number of LNP members winning seats in 2015 who will be heart-broken if Campbell Newman loses in Ashgrove = zero (except maybe the one chosen to be a sacrificial lamb like the above scenario).
Number of LNP members who lose thier seats in 2015 who will be heart-broken if Campbell Newman loses in Ashgrove = less than zero.
Labor’s biggest problem is negative evaluations of its last term, however unimpressed voters are with LNP this will be difficult to overcome.
when are you going to learn to ignore polls from Murdoch press during an election campaign they are obviously falsy and distorted toward the LnP
When the evidence begins to support it. See, for example, #8.
Geoff #41 that sums up this election accurately. It’s still too soon for sufficient numbers to forget and forgive the previous Labor government to cancel out the shortcomings of the current government.
Newman is promising a surplus next year, with unemployment at 7%. is this as arse-backwards a priority as it would be if the feds did it? is there any more justification for a surplus at state level?
1934pc
[Whats the MOE on 800?]
[Woops did not see 24.]
Don’t take my number on it, it’s just a purely speculative estimate.
The best online tool for MoE calculation is here:
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
You want the second box, “find confidence interval”. Sample size 800. Population, let’s say 3,000,000 – this makes a lot less difference than people think, so ballpark is plenty good enough. Percentage 50, since we’re talking about more-or-less 50-50 splits when looking at voting intention. Result: 3.46%.
WB
Thanks for the answer.
Just another one if you or someone else might know.
When is the last time before this, state or federal, that an acting Governor has had to dissolve parliament because the Governor is on leave?
Interesting question. I do not know the answer.
William,
The Newspoll was only for people aged 18-49.
When they rang I was too slow to lie to them and say I was 49.