Newspoll and Galaxy: 53-47 and 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

Poll number two for the Queensland election confirms the impression of poll number one in showing a tight race, and finds support for Palmer United at a quarter of its level from six months ago.

Two more polls from Queensland, from Newspoll in The Weekend Australian and Galaxy in the Courier-Mail, both suggest the commencement of hostilities has served to push the Liberal National Party into the lead. The Newspoll survey was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 801, which is a little on the small side by its standards, and it records a five point hike for the LNP on the primary vote compared with the aggregated October-December poll, pushing it out to 42%. Labor is also up a point to 37%, with the balance accounted for by three point drops for the Greens to 7% and “others” to 13%, with Katter’s Australian Party remaining at 1%. On two-party preferred, a 50-50 result in the previous poll turns into a 53-47 lead to the LNP. Campbell Newman’s approval rating is up three to 41% with disapproval steady at 51%, while Annastacia Palszczuk is at 38% on both measures, respectively being steady and up four. However, she’s actually narrowed the gap on preferred premier, with Newman’s lead down from 44-35 to 42-38. A question on firmness of voting intention finds it to be a little weaker than usual, while 47% say they expect the LNP to win compared with 31% for Labor.

The Galaxy result is in the same ballpark in having the LNP lead at 52-48, compared with 50-50 for its last poll in mid-November. The primary votes are 41% for the LNP, up four on the previous Galaxy poll; 38% for Labor, who are steady; 8% for the Greens, down one; and 3% for Palmer United, down four. The Palmer United result compares with 12% in the Galaxy poll from August, and reduces them to parity with Katter’s Australian Party (Newspoll doesn’t provide a dedicated measure for Palmer United, but conclusions are there to be drawn from the three-point drop in the others vote). Despite the improved result for the LNP on voting intention, the poll finds Campbell Newman’s lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk narrowing from 47-37 to 45-40. However, the leaders’ respective personal ratings are little changed, with Newman at 41% approval (steady) and 52% disapproval (up one), and Palaszczuk at 39% (up two) and 38% (up one). The poll encompassed 800 respondents; not sure of the exact field work dates, but obviously it was over the last two or three evenings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

126 comments on “Newspoll and Galaxy: 53-47 and 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. Paddy, pollsters set quotas for each age cohort and try to get responses from that number of them. Older people are a lot easier to get hold of, particularly through landlines, so they invariably snap up the quota quite quickly and spend the rest of the evening asking people if there’s anyone younger than that in the house. If this poll really did exclude people over 50, Labor would be in real trouble.

  2. I observe that the Ashgrove electorate, despite being mid-ranking in terms of ethnic diversity, has Queensland’s highest proportion of Anglicans and fourth highest proportion of Catholics. Are there any students of Brisbane’s socio-demographics who can offer any insight on this?

  3. paddy2@50

    William,
    The Newspoll was only for people aged 18-49.
    When they rang I was too slow to lie to them and say I was 49.

    And what is the point of lying?

    Next you will be whinging about polls not being representative after having done your best to distort one.

    The Newspoll would have been for all respondents of voting age, but obviously quotas of other age groups were already filled.

  4. William,
    There is a number of exclusive Catholic and Anglican schools in the electorate, plus its close proximity to the most exclusive schools in Brisbane

  7. Thanks Paddy, but half the answer turns out to be an error in my spreadsheet. There are actually very few Anglicans in Ashgrove, at least as residents. But it ranks number two for Catholics, despite not having particularly many Italians.

  9. No major Anglican schools in the electorate that I can think of. There is a medium newish Anglican school but not one I would call exclusive.

    There are lots of prestige Catholic Schools.

    Ashgrove is very wasp – not very ethnically mixed at all.

  11. DTT,
    I thought Mt Maria and its adjacent school were Anglican but I am probably wrong. I do know that the Anglican college at Enoggera (Hillbrook)has a number of families that live in the Ashgrove/Enoggera area.

  12. WB

    [Thanks Paddy, but half the answer turns out to be an error in my spreadsheet. There are actually very few Anglicans in Ashgrove, at least as residents. But it ranks number two for Catholics, despite not having particularly many Italians.]

    Probably a lot of people of Irish descent. Also I have heard in the past that there a high proportion of public servants in the electorate. Being a public servant and having an Irish Catholic background seem to go together a bit in Queensland.

  14. It is amazing how partisan, card holders in parties can twist a poll, I have always found it fascinating. It doesn’t matter how much we all ‘concede’ that TPPs are no indicator of individual seats, the total number of seats won or, indeed, even the outcome of elections (several state and federal elections in the last decade, for example, has been won with a TPP less than 50%).

    Nevertheless, we hear the bleating in here about ‘Labor in contention of winning’, ‘Newman losing his seat on this TPP’ and other tripe.

    Actually, it would be very strange if the ALP didn’t pick up more than their current unfilled ‘Troopie’ of members in parliament. The ‘elephant’ in the room is that the ALP is not just decimated in seats but devoid of talent. The tidal wave last time all but wiped out the former cabinet (well, what was left of it after resignations and those who declined to contest the election). AP is a very ordinary leader, no other state would have considered her with her record, even Tasmania would overlook her as an opposition leader (and THAT is saying something!). However.. she is about the best there.

    Thus, even if the ALP won government, they would be in diabolical trouble to write, introduce and implement policy. It would embarrass the ALP. Much better to lose, gain some (expected) seats, drop the leader with a better choice and keep Newman as a target, since he is so hated by the electorate presently.

    Possibly the worst thing for the Labor party in Queensland, at this point, would be to win. Which is OK, because statistically there would be more chance of the surface of Hades developing a fine crust of ice. 😉

  15. Paddy

    Hillbrook is in the area but it is not a super prestigious school – Churchie, BBC, BBGS, BBGGS, St Peters and St Margarets, Clayfield and I guess Sommerville are the old “prestige” non Catholic schools, although I guess Hillbrook is going up the social ladder quite fast. However none of these (other than Hillbrook) are anywhere near Ashgrove.

  16. Mick Wilkinson@64
    You seem to be assuming the present lot are competent when they clearly are not. There is also more than a whiff of corruption about them.

    Also, are there not a number of former ALP MPs standing this time so there would be an immediate valuable addition to the experience pool?

  19. William

    I can agree that the area is very strongly Catholic and I think the schools are important.

    There is Marist Bros (Rudd’s school briefly), Mt St Michael in the electorate while St Josephs, All Hallows and Stuartholm are easily accessible.

    Possibly more important in terms of where people settle are the excellent Catholic primary schools of which there are many.

  21. Paddy

    Yes LOTS of Ashgrove kids go to Hillbrook but more go to Marist or St Peters or the two grammar schools.

    Mind you the local high schools are EXCELLENT so there is not such a huge drift to the privates as in some areas.

  22. Other than the political Senate enquiry I haven’t read much about corruption in QLD Bemused. Surely you haven’t been taking Palmer seriously?

  24. If fees are a guide to prestige then NONE of the top 15 are in Ashgrove electorate.

    Tuition fees for Year 12 students at independent schools in 2014:

    1. Brisbane Grammar School: $22,180

    2. Brisbane Girls’ Grammar School: $20,880

    3. The Southport School: $20,156

    4. Anglican Church Grammar School: $19,004

    5. St Margaret’s Anglican Church Grammar School: $18,940

    6. Somerville House: $18,800

    7. St Aidan’s Anglican Girls School: $18,380

    8. Brisbane Boy’s College: $17,920

    9. St Hilda’s School: $17,248

    10. Clayfield College: $15,312

    11. Moreton Bay College: $14,450

    12. St Joseph’s Nudgee College: $13,680

    13. St Joseph’s College Gregory Terrace: $12,745

    14. Moreton Bay Boys’ College: $11,930

  25. Again.. the shift to rumours, ‘whiffs’, vague allegations of corruption, a convenient smokescreen to a discussion of Qld state elections??

    After NSW Labor and previous ALP ministers in Jail and having lied under oath and to parliament, I would have thought the ‘whiff’ of which you speak might be a fragrant zephyr compared to those members of the ALP.. and let’s not get started about NSW!!

    So, no, let’s forget that tripe and talk about polls and elections shall we? Not ALP skullduggery designed to distract from the inalienable fact that this election is lost and AP should be dumped. If not now, then straight after the defeat. She is incompetent and would embarrass the ALP in government.

    Newman is safe as houses in Ashgrove. Kate Jones is woefully inadequate.. at least she is female up against a male.. that will give her some lift, at least. Local know though that the ALP is not going to win, so how good can she be for Ashgrove with no power to do anything??? That’s what the locals are talking about.

  26. Mick Wilkinson@64

    AP is a very ordinary leader, no other state would have considered her with her record, even Tasmania would overlook her as an opposition leader (and THAT is saying something!).

    Not so sure of that. For instance our current Opposition Leader in Tasmania was forced to resign as Deputy ALP leader several years back over a stupid deal offering a commercial monopoly to a firm run by former Labor politicians. He even twice faced criminal charges over the matter with both trials ending in hung juries.

    Then there was Harry Holgate who Labor made not just Opp Leader but Premier at the expense of Doug Lowe in the ’80s – normally new Premiers do well in their first poll but Holgate’s opening approval rating was 11% and his disapproval 66% – a honeymoon period of sorts as his next netsat was even worse.

    Then there was Bob Cheek, the LO who committed electoral suicide for the Liberals in the 2002 election by going against his own party’s forest policy and lost his own seat (which under Hare-Clark takes some doing). His replacement then repeated the dose by opposing deregulation of shop trading hours and attempting to keep supermarkets shut on Sundays so that “small retailers” could go on buying groceries from supermarkets and marking them up.

    Many of the same things being said about Palaczszuk were also being said about one Daniel Andrews, whose personal ratings were if anything slightly worse. Wonder what became of him; probably vanished without trace and slunk back to the union hackery he came from. She’s no world-beater but opposition leaders do not need to be. Unless they frighten the horses a la Latham or (in policy terms) Hewson, it’s not about them.

  27. davidwh@72

    Other than the political Senate enquiry I haven’t read much about corruption in QLD Bemused. Surely you haven’t been taking Palmer seriously?

    Back to the Joh era with interference in the Police and the Judiciary.

    Lots of taxpayer money going to help with the Galilee Basin coal mines which are at high risk of becoming stranded assets of zero value.

    As a Queenslander you should know much more than me.

  29. Kevin Bonham@76

    —
    Many of the same things being said about Palaczszuk were also being said about one Daniel Andrews, whose personal ratings were if anything slightly worse. Wonder what became of him; probably vanished without trace and slunk back to the union hackery he came from. She’s no world-beater but opposition leaders do not need to be. Unless they frighten the horses a la Latham or (in policy terms) Hewson, it’s not about them.

    I get the same impression.

    She does not exactly radiate charisma, but she seems, like Andrews, a solid if unspectacular performer and the type that could run a competent if unexciting government which would settle in for several terms.

  31. Mick

    While what Nuttall did was inexcusable, it was pretty trivial stuff compared with the developer’s dollars the NSW Libs have taken and the freebies given to Sinodinos.

    While there is a bit of a whiff about Newman, the ALP is NOT pushing that line and would be fools to do so.

    You are an idiot if you disparage Kate Jones. She is more then “up to the job” and is a very, very strong local presence.

  32. Hopefully Labor aren’t pushing it because they learned their lesson in 2012 however it is no longer possible to use the CMC for running a smear campaign.

  33. DTT yeah, no, I don’t think I would be an ‘idiot’ just for disparaging Jones… for a great many other things perhaps, 🙂 but not that.

    I am in her prospective electorate (or ‘former’ electorate, depending on your penchant for nostalgia). Are you?

    Kate Jones with a Journalism/Arts degree at QUT and a Labor member to the QLD youth parliament in 1996. When she was a local member, she did little of note at all in Ashgrove, but at least she didn’t make a mess, she just went through the motions..

    As minister for Climate Change and Sustainability, the fault was laid at Kate’s feet that she had not acted quickly enough to protect prime farming land being lost to Coal Seam Gas interests.. In the traveston dam project, when federal labor moved to block the idea.. Kate refused questions and palmed the issue off to Bligh’s office.. At the time, there were complaints that she simply was not across the portfolio.. Note, these were Federal LABOR members here.

    It is not disparaging to suggest that Kate would be patently inadequate as a member compared to Campbell Newman. Of course most in this room hate him.. but he gets stuff done.. and stuff for Ashgrove.. Shock! Horror! Infrastructure.. projects promised, roadworks, upgrades.. he is even approachable. I can walk into his electorate office and see him or he can serve me a can of coke at the local ballet company rehearsals.. Yes, he is everywhere and works his tail off.. Of course you hate him.. but for Ashgrovians.. they could do much worse than Campbell newman as a local member again. Seriously.

    The point is, it is a fantastic smokescreen to help you avoid the real issues of why the ALP is failing most miserably in the entire nation here in Queensland..

    Why doesn’t ONE of you look at this??

  34. An interesting process from the can-do team here in the Moggill electorate where sitting MP and former minister and indeed former LNP leader Dr Bruce Flegg was dumped in pre-selection after serving as the member for Moggill since 2004.
    Will be interesting to see if this increases the ALP swing in this blue ribbon LNP seat or maybe increases Greens votes from Fleggs supporters who are pissed off.

  35. Forgot to mention the new LNP candidate for Moggill waves at cars like a complete wanker … Personal non intellectual observation only ….

  38. Nicely put KB.

    Much as it outrages partisans from either side when their team is in government, elections are mot symmetrical contests between Government and Opposition. They are, in part, evaluation of what each option is likely to be in the future but they are also, in very large part, judgements about what the government has done in the past. The former component is symmetrical, the latter very much is not.

    MW has drunk the kool-aid if he thinks only Labor rusteds dislike Newman. Even a cursory glance at the public polling shows otherwise.

  39. Mick

    Funny about perspectives because Campbell Newman is NOT everywhere, in fact rarely seen in Ashgrove.

    Kate by contrast when the MP was everywhere and renowned for being at “the opening of an envelope.”

    Even the most die hard Liberals recognize that Kate was a fantastic local member.

    What did she do for Ashgrove: Ambulance station, and extended police stations are two I am reminded of daily as I drive by.

    In terms of infrastructure Kate Jopnes secured the $90 million funding of the Wardell St upgrade but Campbell Cannot do was in charge of delivery. Given the barely noticeable difference one can ask what in the name of G*D did Cannnot do spend $90 mill on. We seem to have a turning lane. Rumour has it that he resumed some properties at great cost, presumably for “development” but I repeat this is just rumour. However It does not seem to me that the $90 mill Kate Jones secured for Wardell St has had any noticeable outcome.

  41. My feelings on IA are pretty well known. It’s far from independent. Regarding this particular article it’s probably one of the more balanced IA articles I have seen linked here although still written to put the worst possible slant on the LNP. But most of the issues raised are areas where the QLD government handled situations poorly.

  42. Raaraa @ 48

    [When is the last time before this, state or federal, that an acting Governor has had to dissolve parliament because the Governor is on leave?]

    Not on leave, but in SA in August 1977 Don Dunstan had to go to the Lieutenant-Governor for the issue of writs as the Governor in waiting, Keith Seaman, did not begin his tenure until September 1st.

  43. A way to go yet, but these polls reinforce my sense that the LNP will hang on – but Newman will join the growing ranks of QLD unemployed on Feb 1.

    The Newman-haters (and they are legion) will have their day either way!

  46. [It is amazing how partisan, card holders in parties can twist a poll…]

    And from there MW did his best to be a partisan card holder…

    This partisan thanks you for the laugh. 🙂

    I particularly liked “he gets stuff done” line. QLD obviously needs a house of review (bloody ALP for getting rid of the “Lords”)

  47. Over the last 6 months we’ve had many, many advertisements claiming “hospital waiting lists” are up to date. I live in a 24 unit “village” in Hervey Bay. There are 6 elderly persons who have been dumped from lists or not even seen by a specialist in the last 3 years.

    Their comments about Newman are far from complimentary. Hervey Bay won’t go ALP but there will be a very big swing making it within range next election.

  49. [Abbott is in witness protection says Shorten.]

    zinger!

    it’s more like abbott’s in quarantine or has been involuntary admitted/institutionalised for his and others’ safety.

    a question from those who know Qld politics. is the government unpopular because of newman? If people are comfortable knowing he’ll lose his seat will they be more likely to vote LNP in ther electorates?

    question 2 – is there some bucket that was about to tip that prompted the early election, and will labor be able to find and tip it before election day.

    Q3. will a ‘What are you hiding Mr Newman?’ campaign work? will a ‘Only labor can stop abbott’s GST hike’/’Only labor can stop abbott’s cuts to medicare’ ‘Only labor can stop abbott’s wage cuts’ etc work?

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