BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate brings you a probe deep into the innards of the parties’ fortunes state by state.

Essential Research will end the silly season polling drought early next week, and we might also get a Morgan result if the precedent of last year is anything to go by. Newspoll is probably about three more weeks away, Ipsos maybe another week after that, and with Galaxy and ReachTEL you can never really tell. In the meantime, you can enjoy the detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack which I have taken to publishing on a quarterly basis. If you’d like commentary with that, you can read it at Crikey if you’re a subscriber, as you should be. If looming state elections are more your bag, check the two posts beneath this one for fresh polling from Queensland and New South Wales.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “BludgerTrack quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. On a totally different subject, I have just rung the local medical practice for an appointment for my husband. His usual doctor no longer bulk bills, even for gold card recipients, checked whether my doctor is still bulk billing, she doesn’t and now I have to decide if I want to continue seeing her. I have only had my concession card six months and haven’t used it yet for a doctors visit and looks like I never will. Hoping for exceptionally good health in the future.

  2. bemused

    [ accept no responsibility for not giving your ambiguity the interpretation you wanted.]

    There was no ambiguity apart from that which you have conjured up to excuse your original failure to read my post properly. I can see why so many people here get irritated by you.

  3. It’s probably been done to death but I found this to be amusing as the media try to unscramble the Rabbott from Newman.
    From the 8th
    [The toxic relationship between the Newman and Abbott governments has been laid bare after the Queensland premier slapped down suggestions of putting the GST on fresh food.]
    And on it goes about LNP senior ministers seething at the feds for the bungled budget etc…

    [Mr Newman yesterday declared the Queensland Government was “soverign and independent” after senior federal Senator Ian Macdonald’s call for the GST to be expanded.]
    Then this…
    [However, they are eager for popular Foreign Minister Julie Bishop to join the campaign next week despite the schism.]

    Since when has there been furious disagreement and discontent between the Rabbott and Newman. Rabbott vowed to emulate Newman. Federal & Qld state ministers are like dewied eyed lovers when in each others company. Talking up each others achievements.

    I also don’t buy the guff that Newman just came to the notion of calling the election. For the past months, we Queenslanders have been subjected to propaganda ads at saturation point.

    imo, this was thought of well in advance of the latest polls to piggy back on so-called ‘information’ campaigns.

  4. ajm@103

    bemused

    accept no responsibility for not giving your ambiguity the interpretation you wanted.


    There was no ambiguity apart from that which you have conjured up to excuse your original failure to read my post properly. I can see why so many people here get irritated by you.

    I don’t see what is causing you so much angst.

    I guess my main point was that any parliamentarian involvement should be scaled down to the local member except in very exceptional cases.

    Not too far removed from what you were saying.

    No cause for anyone to get irritated unless they have anger management problems.

  5. Assantdj

    So your husband’s doctor doesn’t bulk bill for a person with a Gold Card?

    If you husband has been using that for a while I would be contacting my local Federal MP and asking him why.

    Is he a veteran?

    [I have only had my concession card six months and haven’t used it yet for a doctors visit and looks like I never will. Hoping for exceptionally good health in the future.]

    I would be taking that up with my local member as well. It seems to me that you won’t be alone with that matter and your local member needs to know.

  6. Are there any indications how many doctors ahve stopped bulk billing patients in the last few weeks? Are we talking massive changes?

  7. K17

    I do not know but some poor buggers will not be getting treatment because they can’t afford to pay and that is not appropriate in a civilised society.

    Those living on the streets are even worse off.

    God I loathe this Government.

  8. MTBW
    I have forwarded on the information to a friend who is very involved in the Vietnam veteran group. My husband has amongst other issues PTSD diagnosed 10 years ago. A good relationship with a GP is so important. Last time he saw a visiting GP he had all his meds changed and ended up in hospital. It was one of the reasons I retired.
    The current government just does not get, or does not care about preventative health or the impact its policies will have on the ordinary citizens.

  9. Assantdj

    [My husband has amongst other issues PTSD diagnosed 10 years ago. A good relationship with a GP is so important. Last time he saw a visiting GP he had all his meds changed and ended up in hospital.]

    And he can’t afford to let that happen again.

    You and your husband need to talk to the local Fed Member and appraise him of you and your husband’s condition and don’t take no for an answer.

    Demand that he take your issue up with the Minister for Veteran’s Affairs.

  10. Kevin

    Don’t know abt doctors giving up bulk billing but the practice I attend in Perth’s inner southern suburbs is upping the price for normal consultation from $75 to $80 in a few weeks.

  11. [77
    Greensborough Growler]

    I’m very old school on this matter. Politicians should stay away from these essentially private matters, both for the sake of the families involved and the offices politicians hold.

    Maybe Abbott is confused between the pastoral role of priests and the role played by politicians. These are very distinct sets of duties and meanings. He does the public a disservice by conflating them.

  12. Not fully 4 days after the Feast of the Epiphany, and Targét Innaloo already has chocolate Easter bunnies lined up at the slow-moving checkouts, at toddler height

  13. Part of the AMA press release

    The co-payment does not actually fund the Medical Research Future Fund. What funds the Medical Research Future Fund is actually a cut to the Medicare rebate of five dollars. That is the cut that actually provides $3.5 billion over four years, about five billion or so over the six years.

    Now, it was always a very cynical move to try and link the Medical Research Future Fund to the co-payment proposal, to take money out of the pockets of patients going to the doctor in primary health care and putting it into tertiary level research.

    Now, the AMA supports having a Medical Research Future Fund. As someone that has written NHMRC grants, who’s run a lab, knows the difficulties in obtaining funding for research, I support a Medical Research Future Fund. But what we – sorry – what we don’t support is funding a Medical Research Future Fund through the co-payment. Now, the Medical Research Future Fund, the $20 billion, is actually funded by a number of sources; it’s actually funded through changes to funding public hospitals, it’s funded through cuts to government agencies, through government programs, that were all in the Budget.

    And many of those proposals have already gone through an appropriation, so the savings have already been made for a large proportion of the Medical Research Future Fund.

  14. [Tony Abbott, Campbell Newman, Bill Shorten, the federal opposition leader, and his state counterpart, Annastacia Palaszczuk, will join about 3,000 people for the memorial at the Cairns Convention Centre on Saturday.

    The four girls and four boys, aged between two and 14, were found dead in their Manoora home on 19 December.

    Newman said: “I am there in solidarity with everybody concerned and I hope that us all stopping to reflect at the service, that that gives comfort to all those who have been terribly impacted by this appalling tragedy.”

    The presence of politicians at the funeral, particularly during the Queensland election campaign, has prompted mixed reactions from locals. Simone Stacey, a child safety worker, said it was important provided it was for the right reasons and not “just to show their faces”.

    “I guess for the indigenous community, we do need that support,” Stacey said.

    But their presence could be interpreted as inappropriate, said one Murray Street resident, who didn’t want to be named. “Probably for the family because, you know, it’s their sorrow,” she said.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/10/cairns-funeral-for-eight-children-killed-draws-thousands-of-mourners

  15. AMA

    From 19 January 2015, the Government has cut Medicare rebates by $20 for GP consultations that take less than 10 minutes.

    Today, the standard GP consultation has a Medicare rebate of $37.05. More than 25% of these consultations last less than 10 minutes.

    The Government will reduce the rebates for these services to $16.95 by restricting:

    •Level A consultations (MBS items 3 and 5000) to consultations lasting less than 10 minutes; and
    •Level B consultations (MBS items 23 and 5020) to consultations that last between 10 and 20 minutes.

    Medicare rebates have been frozen since 1 November 2012 for GP* and specialist consultations and operations and will not be increased until 1 July 2018.

    Medicare rebates for pathology and diagnostic imaging services have not increased for more than 15 years.

    *GP consultations were indexed by 2% on 1 July 2014.

  16. AA – Does this mean that, basically, every doctor will have to charge something. I read somewhere that about 80% bulk bill (100%) at the moment.

  17. The completely apolitical (ROFL) AFR, on line, headlines…
    [Momentum builds for GST reform

    A second Liberal MP has lent support to lowering the $1000 GST-free threshold for goods bought online and said a ­coming white paper must be used to build the case for “major tax reform” .

    Angus Taylor, considered a rising star of the government backbench, joins Assistant Treasurer Josh ­Frydenberg in arguin­g the online GST loophole should be closed.

    It follows a week of building ­momentum within the government for changes to the tax, with three backbench MPs and Trade Minister Andrew Robb backing the removal of exclusions such as fresh food and education.

    On Friday, Prime Minister Tony Abbott appeared to welcome the debate, saying people were entitled to put their views forward. But he ruled out any changes in the current term of parliament…

    Shadow Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh accused Mr Robb of being a “ringleader” of a campaign by the government that was now out in the open. “This isn’t a guerrilla ­campaign being run by Liberal MPs – Australians now know the Liberal Party’s campaign to increase the GST goes right to the cabinet table,” he said.

    Discussion about the national tax system has ramped up ahead of the release of the first stage of the white paper, due in late January.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/momentum_builds_for_gst_reform_kDVx1VT13tfdyiqP9TiIJM

  18. Cutting the private health health fund rebate from 30% to 25% would provide the same level of funding to this ‘medical research fund’ as the cuts to the Medicare rebates without stuffing GPs and patients around. But it won’t do the intended job, i.e. end bulk bulling and open up a gap that can be rachetted up in future years to allow private health funds in.

    A future Labor Government should restore the Medicare rebate, reducing the private health insurance fund rebate by a sufficient amount to pay for whatever the gap is by then.

  19. Re dames and knighthoods.

    Don’t be surprised if we see a Dame Bronwyn Bishop arise in the near future, courtesy of her political love child, Abbott.

  20. feeney @ 129

    I would not normally think our PM could be so politically stupid – except he has confounded on that account time and again in the last 15 months.

  21. [Brett Whiteley MPVerified account
    ‏@brettwhiteleymp
    Did Lisa on @abcgrandstand just say ‘mum’ would be doing the washing – if Tony Abbott said that the ABC switchboard would light up. ]

    Yep, they still haven’t figured out that it’s not their communication methods, it’s what they’re actually saying!

  22. On the politicians attending funerals I thought that was already sorted out with a mechanism to filter them to the most important.

    That is State Funerals. If its not important to be a State Funeral then the politicians should stay away.

  23. Things are getting dirty in the Queensland election with the alleged theft of ALP Kallangur candidate sign. It was caught on CCTV.

  24. Speaking of dirty tricks, I saw in the Guardian that the Queensland Liberals told their volunteers that Labor was engaging in dirty tricks dressing up as police – with no evidence to back it.

    Claiming dirty tricks is clearly the standard dirty trick that Liberals do. It’s amazing how the Liberals come up with these accusations. They must think them up while they are planning their own dirty tricks.

  25. This contains the first official confirmation (that I can find) that Australian troops have commenced their task in Iraq. The article also draws attention to what was probably a foregone conclusion: that whichever units the Australian troops worked with would have been involved in war crimes and domestic crimes.

    The tricky bit was always going to be that the Iraq Army was riddled with very large scale corruption and nepotism. It was also highly likely to have been involved in the wholesale bastardisation of Sunnis which made the advance of ISIS into Sunni areas such a doddle.

    Getting in was dead easy – even if Abbott and Bishop botched it such that there is still great uncertainty about when our troops entered Iraq.

    There is no exit strategy. There will be no advance-to-Berlin equivalent of victory. A stalemate has already been declared. The ‘finish date’ might be three years. Getting out of there is going to be as hard as getting out of Afghanistan where we sill have troops.

    The sheer brilliance of Bush, Blair and Howard and mini-me Abbott – on show for all to see.

    And the very worst thing about all this? Shorten hugging Abbott so tight on Iraq and Afghanistan that we cannot see daylight between them.

    As stupid as, Bill!

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-special-forces-work-with-iraqi-security-group-accused-of-killing-prisoners-torture-20150109-12kuou.html

  26. I see that the Liberals are all over the shop on GST ‘reform’.

    Incidentally, when the Liberals say ‘reform’ they mean screwing the poor, students, the elderly, the sick, the pregnant, the disabled, the young and the disabled. The Coalition is turning ‘reform’ into a dirty word.

    Sometimes it also means giving the spivs and the bigots a free rein.

  27. Boerwar@142

    I see that the Liberals are all over the shop on GST ‘reform’.

    Incidentally, when the Liberals say ‘reform’ they mean screwing the poor, students, the elderly, the sick, the pregnant, the disabled, the young and the disabled. The Coalition is turning ‘reform’ into a dirty word.

    Sometimes it also means giving the spivs and the bigots a free rein.

    And if they can do both at the same time, it’s an instant orgasm for most of them.

  28. Hope all you WAers are safe

    [ABC Emergency ‏@ABCemergency 12m12 minutes ago
    #WAFires: #Bullsbrook

    Burning embers likely to be blown around your home. Spot fires are starting ahead of the fire.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/wa/#932a14d1f0fb19eaf3eb64e42cd91e76 …]

    [ABC Emergency ‏@ABCemergency 14m14 minutes ago
    #WAFires: #Bullsbrook

    Fire moving fast NW; is out of control; has jumped Neaves Rd into Gnangara Pine Plantation.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/state/wa/#932a14d1f0fb19eaf3eb64e42cd91e76 …]

  29. Been out campaigning the last two days. Collecting postal vote applications yesterday, and doing visibility stalls today, waving at all the cars go by. Good reaction.

    My electorate is Greenslopes, lost in 2012 when the Greens vote exhausted – that is, didn’t cast preferences.

    Busy weeks ahead.

  30. feeney@145

    Been out campaigning the last two days. Collecting postal vote applications yesterday, and doing visibility stalls today, waving at all the cars go by. Good reaction.

    My electorate is Greenslopes, lost in 2012 when the Greens vote exhausted – that is, didn’t cast preferences.

    Busy weeks ahead.

    This waving at cars seems to be largely a Qld thing, apart from the occasional individual like Xenophon. Any indication of its effectiveness?

  31. Labor in Qld should encourage Greens to preference Labor. “Vote Green if you must, but your preferences count. Don’t let Campbell sneak back in”. Maybe cast it more more positive terms.

  32. Steve777@148

    Labor in Qld should encourage Greens to preference Labor. “Vote Green if you must, but your preferences count. Don’t let Campbell sneak back in”. Maybe cast it more more positive terms.

    The appeal to be to all who support minor parties, not just Greens.

  33. [ This waving at cars seems to be largely a Qld thing, apart from the occasional individual like Xenophon. Any indication of its effectiveness? ]

    Have done this in W.A. Standing around with prominent signs of the candidate, looking happy and interacting. I think it does help raise profiles and remind people who their local candidate is and that they have actual supporters in the area. I think there is value in getting people to interact (waving back) positively. Funny, its a campaigning method that is all about the “vibe” Although you do have to be prepared for the odd person who wants to chat. Certainly doesn’t hurt.

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