Merry Christmas – The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan – though not, as it usually does, by age group. Hopefully this will be forthcoming, either from The Australian or when Newspoll makes its release available in a fortnight or so. (UPDATE: And here it is, together with gender breakdowns whose absence I had failed to note). The only commentary I have to offer at this point is that the biggest state-level shift to Labor recorded by Newspoll has been in South Australia – something I have been expecting polling to show given recent events there, but which hasn’t come through so far in the pollsters who are driving BludgerTrack. With Newspoll’s numbers now at my disposal, I will shortly get to work on quarterly state breakdowns from the full BludgerTrack dataset.
UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have a JWS Research poll concerning the government’s performance over several issue areas, which is notable for the size of the gender gaps it identifies.
From the article linked to by victoria —
[When probed on whether he himself had ever spent money on market research, Senator Carr gasped: “I didn’t spend any money on research.”
The Senator backpedalled: “What we do know is that there is a time when government advertising is proper and legitimate, like bushfires and natural disasters. It’s important for people to know how to get help but this is not one of those occasions.”]
No, the Senator did not backpedal. He distinguished between two things: spending money on market research and legitimate government advertising.
This kind of sideways slurs on politicians encourages them to stick to three word slogans, instead of bothering to try and educate the electorate.
99
That is also on 2PP basis. There was a net decline of one seat where 2PP provides the seat margin. Prahran and Preston ceased to be 2PP (Coalition versus ALP) contests while East Gippsland switched back to a 2PP contest. Shepparton did not actually switch to an non-2PP contest because the ALP were out-polled by the Country Alliance last time (which is why the 2CP count conducted on the night was Country Alliance versus Nat).
[ assuming that if he’s gone the coalition will adopt a policy agenda in the national interest. ]
There’s a big ask Fess!
As said up-thread, if they get rid of Abbott it will be to distance themselves from his commitments and promises. But…..they wont do it yet and i dont think until after the Budget in 2015. That budget is going to be a turning point one way or another. I suspect that some of the Right in the Libs want time for Morriscum to settle into a “domestic” portfolio and become known for having had a few wins. I that happens it will kill off Bishop completely.
She will be portrayed as a lightweight with Scoot being the strong man the country needs. 🙁
That said, i am reasonably confident that the ALP has a plan for 2015 and the people in place to execute it. From whats been said so far publicly i dont think they are going to be relying the Govt the fwark up, although i’m sure they will be careful not to distract attention from that when it happens. 🙂
zoomster:
I know it was hours ago, but I just had to post because this is right on the money:
[I have been meaning to point out for some time that the idea that voters ‘punish’ first term governments but stop short of tossing them out is based on a curious assumption — that there’s some kind of voter ‘group mind’ which means that the electorate votes so far and no further. ]
I’ve been saying the same thing for ages. It also applies to theories like “the voters chose to have a hung parliament” – it’s complete nonsense.
Hopefully you all had a nice Christmas
On the O’Dwyer/Tone relationship, talking to a few Higgins Liberals, the vibe is pretty much as Tom mentioned, O’Dwyer is seen as not being in the Tone camp plus her strong position on the foreign investment has ruffled Tone’s feathers.
As one real estate agent member of the Liberals put it, Tone just doesn’t get Victoria and if the truth be know he just doesn’t care as long as he has Queensland and WA.
But adding fuel to the fire is that O’Dwyer is well liked locally so Tone can’t push her out of the seat.
Mexicanbeemer
I am not sure Tone “gets” WA either but he is lucky that the electorate is in thrall of the mining and big business lobby and votes Tory almost without thinking.
rossmcg
Why the “almost”?
106
I think that will not be so much of the case at the next election as as was at the previous elections. Mining investment is declining and so are resource prices. The state government is in its second term and now there is a less than popular Commonwealth government of the same stripe and the last time this was the case was 1998 (when the ALP increased its seat haul from 3 to 7 out of 14).
caf@104
And I agree too.
I also refute the notion that somehow the number of seats a party has to win affects the likelihood of winning.
Basically, if you get the votes you win the seats and the elections. Votes cast and seats won by your opponents at the previous election are of historical interest only.
In a very close voting outcome, second order phenomena such as Mumbles ‘sophomore effect’ can influence the outcome. But a strong result will swamp them.
[Basically, if you get the votes you win the seats and the elections. Votes cast and seats won by your opponents at the previous election are of historical interest only.]
I tend to agree with this as well, with the caveat that swings tend to be highly non-uniform, so it’s worth looking at *where* the votes are as well. The last SA election illustrates this perfectly – it’s no good winning the 2PP by increasing your vote in seats you already held.
Interesting discussion about how the media uses language which implies that voters vote as a collectivity, when in truth the voters are expressing their preferences individually and those preferences are aggregated into a result.
What if we did away with voting for geography-based representatives – local issues are best handled by local and state politicians anyway. Federal MPs should be focused on national priorities. Constituency services are in many cases a waste of time and only exist by tradition; any that are genuine could be handled in a different way, perhaps by letting the voter file an electronic request with any MP they like who may or may not reside nearby, and it’s done in a very transparent and efficient way where you can check the status of your request online, and its progress through a waiting list.
Anyway, the idea is this: ask voters to express what parliamentary numbers they would like to see. There are 150 seats in this chamber; 76 are required to form government. Assign the seats to the parties and Independents below. For your vote to be counted, you must assign 150 seats in total.
Then the fanatics will give 150 seats to their preferred party and 0 to everyone else, but that will be balanced out by fanatics on the other side.
Moderates who are pissed off with the government or the opposition would be able to express that view in a nuanced way. Someone might decide that they are sick of Labor because of the Rudd-Gillard thing, and they want Labor to be in Opposition, but they want it to be a viable Opposition. They give 60 seats to Labor, 10 seats to the Greens, and 80 seats to the Liberals.
The scores are averaged across the 14 million voters and those averages are the numbers of seats the parties get.
Maybe with such a system we would not get results as lopsided as the Qld election 2012. The system would encourage people to think big picture, and about proportion, and about the relative degrees of power they would like different parties to hold.
Proportional representation would be good too but I present this idea as a quirky thought experiment.
Phylactella
Just trying to be a bit charitable. It is Christmas after all.
caf@110
Yes, that is certainly true.
But there is a kind of a vote threshold beyond which the Libs would have picked up quite a few more seats. Labor was lucky they didn’t quite get there.
Tom
The interesting thing in WA is that there is a redistribution to be done. That may alter the status quo but it will be no surprise to me if WA still sends a majority of Tory MPs to Canberra after 2016.
114
And if there is an early election there will have to be a mini-redistribution to add the 16th seat.
After seeing this headline I look forward to the grilling HoJo will get as to which states will be gouged to pay for W.A.’s “windfall” . Of course it is odds on to be tumbleweed season…………..yet again.
[New GST deal could mean cash windfall for WA]
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/new-gst-deal-could-mean-cash-windfall-for-wa-20141227-12ebow.html
Nicholas:
[Proportional representation would be good too but I present this idea as a quirky thought experiment.]
This essentially is just proportional representation, with the twist that instead of just voting “1” for a single party, you have the option of splitting that 1 up (your example would be equivalent to voting 0.533 for the Coalition, 0.067 for the Greens and 0.400 for Labor).
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster
Might be an interesting article from the psephologist’s point of view. Apologies if already posted.
Raaraa
That’ll learn those pom Labor chaps to get into bed with the Tory party.
Poroti
New deal could mean cash windfall … Another beat-up from The West.
You can get on with me…
Any change won’t happen before 2015-16 by which time the Tories will either be out of office or back for three more years so they won’t be doing anything.
More importantly than WA gaining a seat is NSW losing one.
The next U.K election will be interesting, a year ago I wrote Cameron off but the Labour Party appears to have been busy shooting itself in the foot.
I see the Guardian Oz has 750+ comments today about Libs trailing in NP. The Fairfax papers allow very few comments about politics, and strictly control them when they do. The Age and SMH should be careful; I’m sure they don’t want to be known for suppressing reader opinion.
[ rossmcg
Posted Saturday, December 27, 2014 at 5:34 pm | Permalink
New deal could mean cash windfall … Another beat-up from The West. ]
Presumably any change in GST carve up would need agreement from all the other States.
If so, not much chance. Also not many State Governments facing re-election would want to talk about any increase or broadening of the GST.
let the tories fix the diminishing tax take from the big end of town etc first.
rossmcg
Yep. Pretty simple math. It is a limited pot so if our Emperor gets oodles more then other states get oodles less. The t’other states will be lining up to volunteer 😀
I don’t claim to know NSW politics but I think it was a bit rich for ESJ to criticise NSW Labor or Robertson considering the Premiere quit over a bottle of wine.
123
The requirement for the states to agree on GST distribution can be legislated away with a simple piece of legislation. The real obstacle is the Senate. I do not see Muir, Madigan, Xenophon and/or Lambie voting to increase the WA share. Day probably would not either. Who knows how Leyonhjelm would vote. That makes passage difficult to impossible, even if Palmer gets Wang and Lazarus to vote for it (the former being easier than the latter).
Amazing how people like Uncle Colin forget when W.A. was the busted arse state that got “extra” money due to the State/Commonwealth funding formula 😆
Lordy. This guy’s name alone is worth a triple 😀
[Immigrants make UK racist, says Ukip councillor Trevor Shonk ]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/immigrants-make-uk-racist-says-ukip-councillor-trevor-shonk-9945905.html
Such flippant misrepresentation of why O’Farrell had to resign is annoying.
He resigned due to being caught out blatantly misleading the ICAC.
Re Robertson. He was never going to last.
[123
dave
rossmcg
New deal could mean cash windfall … Another beat-up from The West.
Presumably any change in GST carve up would need agreement from all the other States.]
The Horizontal Fiscal Equalisation (HFE) Agreement administered by the States Grants Commission shifts GST receipts away from States when their royalty income rises and shifts it back again when royalty income falls. There are lags involved in these shifts so any new deal is more likely to relate to timing than to the income sharing deal as such.
If there are changes they may also benefit NSW and QLD, who also receive royalty income and consequently incur a negative adjustment to the GST receipts from time to time.
The real point about all this is that over the next few years WA’s share of GST receipts will certainly rise as its royalty income declines. This re-allocation of GST receipts will be felt in the other States and Territories that now benefit from an “over-allocation” of GST proceeds. WA’s income will likely not change at all though its sources will.
This is all a really crap deal from the point of view of all the States. Before Howard changed the Grants Commission deal, HFE Grants were made to individual States by the Commonwealth. These days, HFE is made by varying the allocations between the States. The Commonwealth has managed to duck its duty. We should go back to the original Federal compact.
The Fed Govt’s declaration of no GST hike/broadening is interesting… and I dare say has confused the ALP Opposition.
The search for increased tax revenue by the Govt and Opposition leading into the next election will be fascinating to watch…
Rex Douglas
No need to increase taxes . There are $ Brazillions in “forgone taxes” that could be made “unforgone”.
Depressingly, and this has been mulled over for ages, the best Labor can look forward to in WA is maybe 6/7 out of the 15/16 available.
The current poor crop was a struggle to achieve but it has been lower of course.
In WA (Perth really) Liberals are not so much rusted on but welded on.
I guess, if it all goes belly up for the conservatives nationally, WA might chip in a couple of seats for Labor.
Governments are not won and lost in WA but in NSW.
Every election the local press tries to kid the electorate that “we” (meaning those in Sandgropia) will have some defining impact on the final outcome, but what actually happens is that WA swings one way or the other, more or less like the rest of the country.
Mind you, not so long ago, we here were not allowed to know the results of voting in the East and a media black out was in place so that the good/bad results could not be known thereby protecting the integrity of the vote – so say.
I remember listening to ABC radio when the Hawke victory as on up at Lancelin as the seaside location gave great reception from Victoria.
It was hours later before we were officially allowed to know the result.
I’m not so sure the collective don’t set out to get a result.
http://www.diplomacy.edu/resources/books/reviews/wisdom-crowds-why-many-are-smarter-few
poroti
Yes and that would be increasing revenue. 😉
Which state to gouge GST from? Labor governed states of course. Then Abbott and Hockey will claim it is only fair and that the state government (Labor) should have planned for it…
Tom.
Re Poroti @128: from your linked article:
[“… (Mr Shonk’s) comments follow Mr Farage’s much-ridiculed claim that the reason he was late for an engagement in Wales was that immigrants had caused congestion on the M4”]
I recall a Liberal candidate made a similar comment in last year’s Federal election campaign.
Rex
If the opposition are confused, it’s because the government is confused. They’ve promised no state will be worse off. How they will manage that without a hike is beyond me. Maybe they will claim to have suddenly discovered a hitherto, unknown to civisilisation, branch of knowledge they’ll call “mathematics”.
tricot
Haha I remember those days. We all supposed to be a bunch of sheep in WA so we would wait till nearly 6pm to hear results after a couple of hours counting and the do down and vote so we could proudly tell our mates at the BBQ the next day that we had voted for the winning team.
Does anybody remember when the polls closed at 8pm? must have been late results in those days, though no so many votes of course.
There was the famous time when a sub-editor at The West Australian had a brain fade and changed the Election Day story to say the polls closed at 8. Much embarrassment all around.
Trying to understand what’s going on in the heads of people who claim they can defy the laws of physics is always going to be tricky.
Rex Douglas
As it is written in the politician’s bible “When I use a word,it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.” . So yes it increases revenue but no it is not a “great big new tax” 🙂
poroti@127
I come originally from NSW and currently live in Victoria.
I don’t wish to see Tasmania, SA, WA or any other part of my country left behind.
I have no time for the petty arguments of Barnett or anyone else.
ahh, it’s all starting to make sense now…
Perhaps they’ll blame it on Labor for leaving an unreality deficit.
bemused
It is all good. W.A. politicians slagging of Canberra BASTARDS !!!!! is totally de rigueur /SOP in Sandgropia. Doesn’t matter which party is in power .
rossmcg@139….and not so long ago!
Meanwhile, poroti, as we know here, not a single vote is lost in WA by any politician bagging anything from the East!
You would think we would outgrow this mentality. But then, it peeves me when the in the Sydney/Melbourne news for Perth the damn Weather Chic stands in front of the whole one-third of Oz – the bit we live in – to tell those in the East – approximately those east of Mildura, what is going to happen.
[The Horizontal Fiscal Equalisation]
OMG please tell me it isn’t seriously called that! 😮
poroti@145
All Premiers do that.
It just seems to reach absurd levels in WA & Qld.
And it seems to gain more traction among the citizens of those states.
[ The Fed Govt’s declaration of no GST hike/broadening is interesting… and I dare say has confused the ALP Opposition. ]
It wont confuse anyone. Just assume they are lying and you’ll be fine. 🙂
Tricot
Het Nieuw Hollandt / Hollandia Nova was around way before them thar convict and the still unreformed mob that colonized the eastern state rabble who now claim superiority 🙂