Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December

Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations find South Australia leading the pack in a two-point shift to Labor from July-September to October-December.

Merry Christmas – The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan – though not, as it usually does, by age group. Hopefully this will be forthcoming, either from The Australian or when Newspoll makes its release available in a fortnight or so. (UPDATE: And here it is, together with gender breakdowns whose absence I had failed to note). The only commentary I have to offer at this point is that the biggest state-level shift to Labor recorded by Newspoll has been in South Australia – something I have been expecting polling to show given recent events there, but which hasn’t come through so far in the pollsters who are driving BludgerTrack. With Newspoll’s numbers now at my disposal, I will shortly get to work on quarterly state breakdowns from the full BludgerTrack dataset.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have a JWS Research poll concerning the government’s performance over several issue areas, which is notable for the size of the gender gaps it identifies.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,130 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December”

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  1. BB

    [My rellies-in-law yesterday, with their disabled daughter, swore blind that everyone else was working and rorting the Disability Pension system… except them. Their girl was a special case. She lives a life of breezy happiness, comforted and cosseted by her adoring parents. And why not? She is an adorable girl, not like those Lebbo bludgers taking from the taxpayer while they plan their Jihad against their benefactors.]

    Seems to be a common occurrence. People fail to see in themselves, what they so clearly see in others.

  2. [The Weekend West can reveal that Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey has asked the Commonwealth Grants Commission, the body that determines the GST carve-up among States, to advise him how to change the system to take better account of WA’s volatile mining royalties.

    Mr Hockey wants the Grants Commission to come up with a new share of GST for WA in 2015-16 that recognises the fact the State’s revenue has plummeted because of the falling iron ore price over the past six months.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25860974/gst-win-for-wa/

  3. MTBW@61

    bemused

    Do you really want that or are you being facetious?

    Doesn’t bother me if you do!

    It was an attempt at a humourous approach to pointing out your error which you repeat on a regular basis. 😛

    I think I already have the same email.

  4. PvO always has the Liberal goss. PMO briefing against one of the govt’s backbenchers.

    [It must have been through gritted teeth that Abbott put calls through to Christian Porter, Kelly O’Dwyer and Simon Birmingham to tell them of their promotions. The Prime Minister’s office has been briefing against O’Dwyer for many months, but her talent was undeniable. She moves into the parliamentary secretary ranks.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/reshuffle-abbott-had-to-have-is-unlikely-to-be-the-last/story-fn53lw5p-1227167322261

    Also suggests that Morrison does not have a good relationship with his colleagues, despite the conventional commentariat wisdom that his partyroom have approved of his performance, thereby he’s a leadership contender.

    Says too that Abbott will have another reshuffle in a year’s time.

  5. citizen:

    I’m in two minds about Abbott. On the one hand he needs to go for the good of the country, assuming that if he’s gone the coalition will adopt a policy agenda in the national interest. On the other Abbott leading the Liberals is Labor’s best chance of being elected.

  6. sohar@50

    I note from Kevin Bonham’s analysis of the Vic election that Labor went from getting 64% of 3rd party preferences to 69.5%. Why is then that many polling companies disregard what people say they will preference at the next election and use old data instead? Times change, as do voting patterns.

    There was a history through the 2000s of companies that used respondent preferences getting severely burned, eg Newspoll in 2004, Morgan anytime. Even for this 2014 Vic election the pollster polling respondent preferences (Ipsos) had them running about 75% to ALP, so while respondent prefs were actually slightly closer to the mark this time (ditto in 2013 federal) there was not a lot in it. These recent cases where there’s been a big shift between elections are unusual and I doubt the trend of intensifying flow to the ALP will last.

    The other thing is that pollsters’ primary votes seem to slightly skew to ALP on average, so being conservative on preference flow makes it less likely they’ll miss bigtime on the 2PP. That’s how most of those 52:48 Victorian polls were right; not one of them had highly accurate primaries. The exception was the final Ipsos which had the ALP primary too low and the respondent-allocated flow too high.

  7. One more from me for the New Year:

    Subject: Finally……..the story as told by Hillary Clinton to world leaders ……

    “Some years ago, nearing dinner time at the White House, our regular cook fell ill and they had to get a replacement on short notice. He wasn’t the smartest looking guy, in fact he seemed a bit dirty.

    “The President voiced his concerns to his Chief of Staff but was told that this was the best they could do on such short notice.

    “Just before the meal, Bill noticed the cook sticking his finger in the soup to taste it and again complained to the Chief Of Staff, but he was assured that many chefs did that.

    “Dinner went okay, although Bill thought that the soup tasted a little funny. By the time dessert came, he started to have stomach cramps and nausea.  It was getting worse and worse until finally the President had to excuse himself.

    “By now, he was desperately ill with violent cramps and was so disorientated that he couldn’t remember which door led to the bathroom. He was on the verge of passing out from the pain when he finally found a door that opened.

    “As he unzipped his trousers and ran in, he realized to his horror that he had stumbled into Monica Lewinsky’s office with his trousers around his knees.  As he was about to pass out, this naive girl bent over him and heard the President whisper in a barely audible voice:

    “Sack my cook”

    “And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how the whole misunderstanding occurred.”

  8. [69
    confessions

    citizen:

    I’m in two minds about Abbott. On the one hand he needs to go for the good of the country, assuming that if he’s gone the coalition will adopt a policy agenda in the national interest. On the other Abbott leading the Liberals is Labor’s best chance of being elected.]

    imho….

    Abbott will be sacked as soon as his party come to believe he is unelectable. Considering the damage he has already done to his Party’s standing, the longer he remains in office the more harm will be done to the Liberals’ reputation. From their point of view, the sooner they sack him the better – the longer they will have to regroup.

    Inevitably, he will be dumped even though this will invite comparisons with Labor’s Rudd-Gillard woes. Just the same, his successor will still most likely lose. Partly this is because the Liberals have no settled policies that are relevant to our circumstances. Partly it is because they are just incompetent. And partly they will lose because unstable leadership in the governing party is de-stabilising for the country at large.

    The Liberals will reason – just as Labor did in 2013 – that if you’re going to lose, it’s better to lose by a little than by a lot. So they will recruit someone that just might save them, but in any case will lead them to a better result than Abbott could.

    Bishop will be chosen in spite of the risks. She only needs 51 votes to roll Abbott and she would have most of them already.

  9. confessions

    If the PMO has been briefing against O’Dwyer for months, it doesn’t seem to have reachd the great unwashed on PB.

    Q. Is Peta against other women getting the limelight?

  10. briefly:

    You make some good points, however don’t you think that if they change leaders they remove one particular advantage Labor have, that being Abbott’s unpopularity?

  11. lizzie:

    It was a surprise to me. It’s not as if O’Dwyer has been openly undermining the leadership. She’s sucked it up, served on the backbench without open complaint despite her ambitions, parrotted the coalition talking points with precision whenever she’s appeared in the media. I’m struggling to see why the PM’s office would be whiteanting her.

  12. This also stood out for me as I didn’t think it was permitted:

    [Sussan Ley’s promotion sees the number of women in cabinet double to two, assuming we don’t include Peta Credlin’s continuing presence at cabinet meetings in the formal numbers.]

    I thought only cabinet ministers (and by invitation other front benchers) were permitted to attend cabinet meetings, and staffers were not allowed.

  13. 76

    The only reason, other than factional hatred, that I can think of that Abbott may not like that O`Dwyer has dome has been the inquiry into foreign investment in housing and its regulation.

  14. O’Dwyer was elected in a by election around the time Abbott challenged Turnbull. She wasn’t able to vote in the leadership ballot, but it was generally accepted she was in the Turnbull camp.

  15. briefly on Dec 27, 2014 at 12:34 pm
    I don’t see sacking Abbott will make much difference.
    To me it seems that policy is being driven by others and unless they can break this control I can’t see a change in policy direction.

  16. 81

    And had she and Paul Fletcher, or their predecessors, been voting in the leadership election, Abbott would not have been leader. Abbott`s challenge was a real carpe diem event.

  17. [75
    confessions

    briefly:

    You make some good points, however don’t you think that if they change leaders they remove one particular advantage Labor have, that being Abbott’s unpopularity?]

    Oh yes, this is possible. That’s exactly why they will want to do it.

    They will also take the view that by removing Abbott they will remove themselves from the promises he made – that is, the new leader/team will have a clean slate and some policy discretion that Abbott does not and cannot have.

    Apart from anything, it’s obvious that Abbott is not PM-material. He’s a fool. The Liberals should dump on those grounds alone.

    The Liberals may get a poll bounce when they dump him, but the next question will be what they can make with a second chance. The probability is they will mess that up too. They are just too far away from the centre to be supportable by the electorate in general.

    Of course, the electorate will then have no reason to prefer the Liberals as an expression of order and continuity. They will have become a source of uncertainty. That is about the only argument there is to keep Abbott, and it’s just not a good enough reason by itself.

  18. BB

    Interesting story you shared about the young woman with a disability whose parents and aunt rail against Lebanese “bludgers”. For some, empathy stops at the household’s edge.

  19. Morning all. Thanks to Lizzie for linking to an appalongly dishonest peice of rubbish written by Alister Heath of the UK Daily Telegraph about the Pope’s views on economics. I couldn’t really care les what the pope thinks, unless he is planning to end the Vatican’s legal shenanigans. But I was aamazed by the amount of desperate misrepresentation of the views of French economist Thomas Piketty.
    [It gets worse, unfortunately. At the height of Pikettymania, and before many leading economists punched holes in the French economist’s thesis, the Pope took to his Twitter account to state, without any caveats or context, that “inequality is the root of social evil”. He was clearly referring to differences in financial outcomes and wealth, and, crucially, not to poverty or to inequalities of opportunity, both very different concepts.]
    What a pack of lies! Heath’s “punched holes” were themselves punched back when it was found that the critics were inventing data and had not checked the online evidence that zpiketty has to back up his analysis. Heath then goes on to express outrage that Piketty dared to claim that calpitalism might increae inequality of wealth. Piketty does not claim it. He spends 700 pages proving it.

    It is quite remarkable the degree to which right wing pundits simply invent their own facts to change the debate when it is not going their way. Perhaps it is a mark of the impact your views make when someone feels the need to lie about you in response.

  20. [She wasn’t able to vote in the leadership ballot, but it was generally accepted she was in the Turnbull camp.]

    Along with many of her colleagues, some of them in the ministry. The PM’s office singling out her for whiteanting on the basis that she’d have been in the MT camp 5 years ago seems somewhat extreme to me.

  21. confessions

    PVO has maintained that the reshuffle that Abbott had to have, was not for the benefit of good governance, but for Abbott himself

  22. If the Liberals are considering a change of leadership they may as well get it done several months before the May budget. What would be the point of a new leader if the 2015-2016 Budget reflects Tony Abbott’s judgement? The Budget embodies a government’s priorities.

  23. victoria:

    And he wasn’t alone on that front either despite many in the media trumpeting the reshuffle as some kind of genius stroke.

  24. 89

    A real push on leadership is likely to come if the LNP looses in Queensland, where thy have dived in the polls during the term, and they do not have fixed election dates. If the ALP were to win or unexpectedly bruise the Coalition in NSW, in March, that would also be a potential trigger for a spill. The budget itself is a potential trigger for leadership instability.

  25. [89
    Nicholas

    If the Liberals are considering a change of leadership they may as well get it done several months before the May budget.]

    That’s right. Since voters have largely stopped relying on Abbott or believing much that he says, if the LNP want to start re-building they have to change the messengers as well as the message. The logical time to move against Abbott is prior to the resumption of Parliament in 2015.

    Howard commanded really exceptional loyalty from his party room and they found themselves unable to draft Costello even though they fully expected to be defeated in 2007. This time, they will not be so hesitant. Abbott is a divisive figure with a now-proven incapacity to lead in Government. Rather than fostering unity and common purpose, Abbott is splitting his Party and the country with it. The Liberals will feel very little regret when they depose him, in the same way that most Labor MPs felt little or no remorse when they dropped Rudd.

    Just as many in Labor were serving the better interests of the country in 2010, so the Liberals can console themselves in 2015 that their own interests and those of the country will be well aligned when they revoke Abbott’s licence to operate.

  26. BB @48

    I was puzzled by “Lebbo” – misprint for “Lesbo”?
    Then I realised there is anti-Lebanese undercurrent in Sydney that is not obvious in Melbourne. Is it fomented by Jones or by the Telegraph?
    A friend on the Ethnic Communities Council commented that multiculturalism works in Melbourne, but is not successful in Sydney.

  27. This is quite ridiculous. Or, to put it another way: a pig’s breakfast. If Turnbull had not been charged with spoiling Labor’s NBN, there might have been some progress, however slow.

    [City of Casey councillor Sam Aziz says good, affordable internet access was a growth enabler and investing in it would fuel the local economy.

    “If the NBN is at least six years away, we need an intermediate solution from Telstra,” he said.

    The Telstra spokesman said the company looks at expanding coverage and improving capacity on a case-by-case basis where it makes commercial sense.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/it-pro/government-it/stuck-in-a-blackspot-melburnians-fight-for-the-right-to-broadband-20141226-12albj.html

  28. The quickest and cheapest way to get better internet for everyone was Labors NBN. After 16 months of MTM there are no subscribers on VDSL nodes, there is no movement to upgrade HCF and fibre has slowed to a crawl, when it was finding greater efficiencies under Labor.

  29. [I note from Kevin Bonham’s analysis of the Vic election that Labor went from getting 64% of 3rd party preferences to 69.5%. Why is then that many polling companies disregard what people say they will preference at the next election and use old data instead? Times change, as do voting patterns.]

    Polling said it would increase to about 75%. Voting patterns do indeed change, but respondent indications as to preference allocation happen not to be much of a guide.

  30. [Polling said it would increase to about 75%.]

    People are making up their minds.

    I expect that the Greens and Independents will get flogged.

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