Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December

Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations find South Australia leading the pack in a two-point shift to Labor from July-September to October-December.

Merry Christmas – The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan – though not, as it usually does, by age group. Hopefully this will be forthcoming, either from The Australian or when Newspoll makes its release available in a fortnight or so. (UPDATE: And here it is, together with gender breakdowns whose absence I had failed to note). The only commentary I have to offer at this point is that the biggest state-level shift to Labor recorded by Newspoll has been in South Australia – something I have been expecting polling to show given recent events there, but which hasn’t come through so far in the pollsters who are driving BludgerTrack. With Newspoll’s numbers now at my disposal, I will shortly get to work on quarterly state breakdowns from the full BludgerTrack dataset.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have a JWS Research poll concerning the government’s performance over several issue areas, which is notable for the size of the gender gaps it identifies.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,130 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December”

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  1. The polling says 50-50 with MOE.

    To me that says it is theoretically winnable for Labor if their campaign can be sufficiently resourced.

    I’d like to see Labor interests in other states chuck in and try to help get their QLD comrades over the line. Not just money – maybe a few staffers as well.

  2. teh_drewski @4071:

    deb – yep, Davenport in SA writs were issued today (or over the weekend?) Almost zero chance the Libs lose given the margin and the nature of that electorate, though.

    I don’t recall people thinking that Fisher would fall to Labor – the Coalition’s TPP margin was, what, 7% after the March election? People were all aflutter about “Will it be the Liberal candidate? Will it be the independent?” Labor barely rated a mention, as I recall.

    Remind me….who won the seat?

    As Antony Green put it on the night:

    This is an 8% swing towards a 12 year-old state government in a seat Labor hasn’t won since the 1985 state election. This is a result that can’t be blamed in electoral boundaries.

  3. Clarification re: myself @4102:

    I’m not saying it’s certain, or even likely, that Labor will win Davenport as well. I just think it’s unwise to completely write them off before the election as people did wrt Fisher.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Tom Switzer despairs over the unsolvable problems of the Middle East.
    Is the Royal smoke getting a bit thicker?
    Things are looking worse and worse for Air Asia.
    ASIC vs Big Banking way well be a big one.
    Well you’d have to agree with some of what Abbott has said here.
    Peter Wicks looks at what is driving Abbott into a stealthy push on penalty rates and other things.
    Looking after the environment Newman and Abbott style.,7233
    The insidious invasion of the IPA into Australian politics.
    Stephen Koukoulas – Hockey and “emergency” interest rates.

  5. Section 2 . . .

    This government seems to be doing its best to wreck Canberra.
    And why this obsession about cutting public service jobs? They are barking mad.
    Inside the Liberal Party bunker.
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    What did this country do to deserve George Christensen?
    Even the Pope accepts the inevitable.
    How long before Abbott appoints a Minister for Information?
    Big Business doesn’t like the Senate. Perhaps they should tell Abbott to stop serving up shit to it then.
    The government’s stealthy Medicare rebate reduction is setting the GPs off and running as these letters to the editor show.
    Beautiful work by David Pope on Abbott’s media control in Iraq.

  6. Norwester

    [I’d like to see Labor interests in other states chuck in and try to help get their QLD comrades over the line. Not just money – maybe a few staffers as well.]

    That’s a given, both sides will send staffers from other states to QLD. If nothing else, it gives them campaign experience.

  7. Morning all. Not much happening politically until Campbell Newman confirms the end of his reign as premier later today.

    Seeing BK’s link to the story about the unprosecuted banking scandal, this problem (banks too big to fail means too powerful to jail) is widespread throughout the english speaking world. Oxford economist Simon Wren-Lewis gave a good explanation of it in the UK and USA in this brief column.

    In short, if we don’t start prosecuting bankers for committing crimes soon, we never will. The slide towards feudalism grows steeper.

  8. I note today the Oz is crowing that the crashing australian dollar is a ‘boon/prop’ to the economy. Imagine how they would have reported this under Swan/Rudd/Gillard? I predicted they’d do this sometime ago – the partisanship there is astounding. I expect a big campaign on rising unemployment being the unions fault for wanting people to be paid a living wage. The Qld election will be very interesting. I expect federal labor to go into santa mode for pensioners and young families.

  9. This on twitter

    [FFS, now hearing American @rupertmurdoch was told of #QLDVotes date at Christmas. Before QLD Nats and Libs MPs, before voters #auspol]

  10. [I expect federal labor to go into santa mode for pensioners and young families.]

    They didn’t for Victoria, so I don’t see why they’d do that for Queensland.

    I’d expect Queensland labor will draw heavily on the Victorian experience. If anything, Labor was fairly parsimonious with its promises.

  11. guytaur

    I didnt catch the name of the person who was speaking yesterday on ABC radio. He said wtte that Luke Foley is going to be a formidable opponent for Baird

  12. zoomster

    Yep basically Vic Labor promised to scrap east west link and restore tafe funding. This coupled with fixing level crossings, appear to be the main feaure of labor’s promises

  13. guytaur

    I usually recognise Burke’s voice, but failed to yesterday. Admittedly, i was listening to it with lots of background noise

  14. victoria

    It was a good presser. Burke was doing Labor’s first back to work as acting LOTO.

    I think its indicative that Newman has not caught Labor by surprise as Labor is officially back at work. The surprise theory seems to be the media narrative today to avoid talking about desperation by Newman

  15. TPOF

    [Any parent who does not vaccinate their child is a dangerous freeloading bastard relying on the conscientiousness of other parents contributing to herd immunity to protect their own child.]

    I am totally in favour of parents ensuring that all appropriate vaccination schedules are met. It is indeed irresponsible and reckless not to vaccinate your child. That said, it is hard to see how the children of anti-vax eccentrics can measurably elevate the risk to others by remaining unvaccinated. If, for argument’s sake, 99% are vaccinated, they remain immune from diseases carried by the 1% unvaccinated, even allowing that, improbably, they catch one of the diseases for which the 99% are vaccinated. So although they are ‘free-riding’ their threat is likely to be minimal, and confined to themselves and other non-immunised folk.

    That’s still a threat of course. People with compromised immunity deserve protection, and of course, most agree that parents should take all reasonable steps to foreclose serious risks to their children’s future life-chances. It’s possible that a non-immunised child carrying a pathogen could harm a baby.

    I don’t agree that we should overstate what is already a persuasive case for action however.

    On the question of visas, I have no problem with the recklessly silly visiting the country to speak. They are, in my view, to be distinguished from those who are plainly dangerous criminals. Of course, that doesn’t mean rational folk should not make clear our disdain at their dangerous nonsense, seeking to make their visits an occasion for repudiation of their propaganda and for appeals for evidence-based public policy.

  16. Fran, we probably need to disagree on the level of culpability of the anti-vaxers.

    However, it is not the case that 99% are vaccinated. There are significant numbers of children (who grow into adults) who, for medical reasons, cannot be fully vaccinated immediately or forever. That creates a pool of vulnerable people who have to rely on herd immunity for protection. Once the herd starts to wander all over the place like Brown’s cows the protection they offer becomes diminished. The children of these anti-vaxers don’t live in isolated communities, but go to schools and play together with not fully immunised children of everyone else.

    By the way, the Brown’s cows phrase is deliberate. It is instructive that the word ‘vaccination’ from the latin word to cow. The process was so named because the first mass inoculation was using the cowpox vaccine to immunise against the incredibly deadly smallpox which had plagued the old world for thousands of years and resulted in the extermination or near extermination of civilisations with no immunity at all in the new world. The disease no longer exists outside of a laboratory anywhere in the world – one of the great unmitigated achievements of humanity.

  17. Fran,

    What do you make of William Thompson’s whistleblow on the MMR vaccine reported earlier this year? Dr Thompson was a longstanding highly respected epidemiologist at the CDC’s Center of Birth Defects and Development Disabilities who broke a decade’s silence over the US government’s concealment of the link between MMR vaccine and a dramatically increased risk of autism in African American boys, claiming his failure to speak out earlier after helping to hide damaging data was the “lowest point of his career”.

    Earlier this year US House of Reps Bill Posey (R-FL) demanded that the CDC be investigated which, at the time was chaired by Dr. Julie Geberding who is now director of Merck’s vaccine division.

    Rep Posey highlighted the “incestuous relationship between the public health community and the vaccine makers and public officials,” as well as the manipulation of data and the swinging door policy between the vaccine makers and the CDC.

    Given that the the pharmaceutical industry which includes all major manufacturers of vaccines has been fined more than $30 billion for doctoring results, false communications, bribery of officials and outright deception over the last seven years; how is it that you can champion this industry with a vehemence bordering on in my opinion, fascism?

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