Merry Christmas – The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan – though not, as it usually does, by age group. Hopefully this will be forthcoming, either from The Australian or when Newspoll makes its release available in a fortnight or so. (UPDATE: And here it is, together with gender breakdowns whose absence I had failed to note). The only commentary I have to offer at this point is that the biggest state-level shift to Labor recorded by Newspoll has been in South Australia – something I have been expecting polling to show given recent events there, but which hasn’t come through so far in the pollsters who are driving BludgerTrack. With Newspoll’s numbers now at my disposal, I will shortly get to work on quarterly state breakdowns from the full BludgerTrack dataset.
UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have a JWS Research poll concerning the government’s performance over several issue areas, which is notable for the size of the gender gaps it identifies.
[4049
confessions
OMG it looks likely
Andrew Greene @AndrewBGreene · 16m 16 minutes ago
A date expected to be announced tomorrow for an election in Queensland, likely to be the end of January or early February via @COBrienBris]
Panic in LNP ranks…Newman has deduced that to wait is to invite certain destruction.
[ I just thought Tones be still working his way through Village People “uniforms” 🙂 ]
For the good of the nation poroti must be found treated with strong drink and banned from the internet for life. 🙁
What caught my eye in pictures of the “press conference ” was the gold trim on the Aussie flag. Iraqis must have felt it needed a bit of tarting up. Wonder if idea will catch on.
[It is obviously a cost saving to have media conferences without the media.]
Bit of a moot point given he travelled to Iraq at our expense to have it.
briefly:
Definitely looks like panic.
rossmcg @ 4048
“Newman could end speculation by issuing a press statement saying the election will be on the due date.”
I remember when Julia Gillard did that in 2013 and the great defender of the Westminster system, Tony Abbott. claimed we were in the caretaker period 9 months out from the nominated date and therefore Labor could not make any more appointments, implement policies, etc.
Maybe Newman remembers that and is terrified that he will get some of his own party’s grossly dishonest medicine back.
I wouldn’t mind betting that the press were kept away from Mr Abbott’s trip to the front to avoid the filing of stories along the lines of “Tony Abbott received a polite but frosty reception from Australian troops clearly unimpressed with his government’s efforts to cut their pay in real terms …”.
Mr Newman, is that a starter’s pistol in your pocket or are you just pleased to see in the new year?
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/campbell-newman-to-name-queensland-election-date-tomorrow/story-fnn8dlfs-1227175326057
[rossmcg @ 4048
“Newman could end speculation by issuing a press statement saying the election will be on the due date.”]
Umm, it is not a fixed term in Qld so there is no “due date”, only a last possible date, just like Federal HoR elections.
It’s time
Thanks
Thats what I was sort of alluding to. Just say the parliament will run its course.,
Found this off reddit:
Puts the Sampson Flat Fire in perspective.
Glad to hear that BK and everyone else caught up in the SA bushfires are ok.
[ to avoid the filing of stories along the lines of “Tony Abbott received a polite but frosty reception from Australian troops ]
Ahhh..its all for the avoidance of another “shit happens” shuddering brain-lock moment. 🙂
On vaccinations, if you haven’t seen this before it’s worth seeing and sharing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfdZTZQvuCo
[A spokesman for Abbott said the prime minister had wanted to keep the travelling party small to avoid security issues in Iraq, as parts of the country continue to battle Islamic State (Isis) rebels.]
On that basis, the Australian media should keep off the streets of Sydney, based on the DT front page claim that IS death cult members were roaming the streets here.
ABC 24 has QLD election as breaking news election late January early February date expected to be announced tomorrow.
I agree with Briefly’s assessment. I will just add Federal effects may be playing their part if Newman knows there is going to be a leadership change. Big if though.
citizen @ 4064 – nice one.
guytaur @ 4065
I still cannot conceive that they will dump Abbott this early. There is no way in the world he will be persuaded to let go of his office after throwing all morality and ethics to the four winds to get there. And if he is forced out it will be very bloody. In addition, none of the candidates to replace him make a particularly strong case against any other for the job. Everyone talks about Bishop, but her leadership and complex policy management skills are completely unproven.
Personally, it is more likely that Newman wants to go early because there is no chance of a change at the Federal level and he knows it is only going to get worse. I can’t see Labor winning the campaign as it has too little firepower left after the 2012 wipeout, although the likely strong showing will give them the depth and intellectual strength to be well-positioned for the 2018 election. Newman holding onto his own seat is likely to be a different matter.
TPOF
Newman going now does not mean the change will be in the next few weeks. Its more that he expects it after March which is the NSW election and does not want to clash with that as well as the panic at the polling.
The leadership thing is just an added consideratin.
I think the change has to happen before the next budget so they can reasonably change policies or else what is the point?
A disaster in Qland for the Libs,even if they survive narrowly(and lose Newman) will undermine Abbott so after the Victorian loss,and with bad polls elsewhere…and isn’t there another by-election in SA ooming up too ??
My theory is Newman’s calling it before Abbott so thoroughly destroys the LNP brand that they actually lose the next Qld election. Right now they should really scrape back in, if only because Labor are so fare behind.
Sorry the last sentence refers to the Federal LNP @ 4067
deb – yep, Davenport in SA writs were issued today (or over the weekend?) Almost zero chance the Libs lose given the margin and the nature of that electorate, though.
How many Queensland elections have been held at this time?
2004 was February 7.
Haha
I like this tweet
“@krONik: Can Newman get the election in before Abbott returns from OS to lose it for him?
http://t.co/loxK5dw4KB
#AUSpol http://t.co/2gvtGFk9ui”
TD
Thanks. 🙂
deblonay@4068
Good evening deblonay.
See my comment at 3981 – I gave you an honourable mention. 😀
teh_drewski@4069
The election will be determined by the number of votes the parties get, not how many seats they won or didn’t win at the last election.
Where does that bizarre idea come from?
Well now we know why the Courier Mail started its election coverage today.
Who said anything about seats? 13% is an enormous margin to make up in one election.
TD
Not according to the polls. The 50/50 says Labor could win depending on which seats.
guytaur@4078
OK, put it in terms of votes if you wish.
But you are still looking at the result of the last election which is no guide to the outcome of the next.
If Labor polls well enough, they will win. And currently, opinion polls are suggesting Labor is right in the race.
Looking backwards does not help.
what about the incumbency factor Bemused? Doesn’t a sitting MP have a recognised advantage over a non-incumbent all other things being equal? I’d like to believe your theory but it feels wrong.
bemused@4081
Oops… that was a reply to teh_drewski @ 4078. 😳
Would you believe.. 4079. 🙁
alias@4082
Mumbles ‘sophomore effect’.
Sure, but if a party gets say 52% of the 2PP and doesn’t win some seats because of that effect, where have the votes gone?
They obviously pick up other seats.
There is an effect at the margin which is why any party can win with 49% or lose with 51%.
But if the vote is strong enough all those effects are just swamped.
So the real question I would like to know the answer to is what % of the 2PP does Labor require to win?
If they get that, they will win, barring some very strange results in individual seats.
bemused – not at all. Polls tell you some things. History tells you some things. You take all the information available and make an assessment.
Mine is that, despite what the polls say, 13%(ish) is too large a swing to make up against a one term government. I would expect the polls to slip slightly off that as the election approaches and the LNP warchest cranks up a scare campaign.
If polls were the only thing that mattered in election results, we wouldn’t bother having the election itself, after all.
Alias
Incumbency does count. Effect most pronounced during emergency situations
guytaur @ 4067
The Coalition is really stuffed by Abbott. They are panicked terribly about keeping him because he is such a disaster zone (reminds me of Billy McMahon the way he has been rapidly diminished by office).
But there is nobody who stands out as a replacement. And anyone they pick will be white-anted from day 1 by a whole bunch of losers who all have tickets on themselves.
It is a direct consequence of being a deceitful, negative opposition before the last election and they deserve it, along with the Australian voters who let themselves be snowed by the media campaign in his favour.
teh_drewski@4086
13% too large?
How can that be so? The LNP got that and more last election.
There is no immutable law that says 13% is unachievable.
The last election was some time ago and the more recent indications of voting intentions are the polls. You either believe them or you don’t. I believe them.
The problem with the polls is that they are a snapshot at a particular point in time and involve a MOE. So they are less than perfect.
You get the votes, you win the election. It really is as simple as that.
guytaur at 4087
Maybe Newman is hoping for a natural disaster to strut his stuff. After all it is the season and climate change appears to be increasing the likelihood.
teh_drewski@4086
That is just nonsense and I’m sure you know it.
TPOF@4090
He has Abbott I suppose.
Natural or unnatural disaster? 😀
Off to bed now.
Goodnight all.
TPOF
I agree with every word you wrote in post 4088. With the exception of the voters deserving to be snowed. A lot have woken up to the MSM coverage. This is part of the polls being so bad.
I do think leadership change is too late as its just shifting deck chairs on the Titanic. I am talking though about why LNP people may be doing things. They have a different view.
*sigh*
Yes, you win the votes, you win the election.
I don’t think Labor will win the votes.
Why does my assessment have to be an “immutable law”?
Courier Mail confirms Tony Abbott trip in leather jacket designed to give cover for Can Do to call snap election.
Expect Tony to appear in the last week of campaign dressed in OZ flag edition of the jacket
…”Prime Minister Tony Abbott is also out of the country and would be unable to join the Premier on the campaign trail until some time after Australia Day”
TPOF
I give Newman credit. He is doing this while Abbott is not in the country.
Bedtime for me too.
Goodnight
Whatever the poll numbers tell you, there is a practical difficulty for Labor to win from its present position. Forget the percentage swing needed. The real problem they have is too few resources flowing directly from having such a small number of members, and the resources available to members.
The lack of shadow ministers (or the coverage of multiple portfolios and the difficulty of one person being across the workload of two or three) will tell in the campaign. Mistakes will be made under pressure; the few parliamentary members’ local offices will be under pressure to service not only the incumbents but to provide support for likely new members. And a whole host of other problems that flow from being such a small group.
I’d like it to be different, and I have limited respect for the collective wisdom of the pundits. I think that the current government is ripe for a whacking and, in principle a 13% swing is quite possible in the current electoral volatility, but Labor needs more resources that it currently has to convince enough voters that it could form a better government.
I would love Labor to win. Newman stinks. But at best all I can see is Labor positioning itself excellently to take government back in 2018.
4099
Queensland is the mainland state in Australia most in need of proportional representation because it has a geography particularly susceptible to big swings translating into near wipe-outs. Such over-representation of the government in Parliament is bad for scrutiny of government and thus democracy.