Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December

Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations find South Australia leading the pack in a two-point shift to Labor from July-September to October-December.

Merry Christmas – The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly aggregations broken down by state and metropolitan/non-metropolitan – though not, as it usually does, by age group. Hopefully this will be forthcoming, either from The Australian or when Newspoll makes its release available in a fortnight or so. (UPDATE: And here it is, together with gender breakdowns whose absence I had failed to note). The only commentary I have to offer at this point is that the biggest state-level shift to Labor recorded by Newspoll has been in South Australia – something I have been expecting polling to show given recent events there, but which hasn’t come through so far in the pollsters who are driving BludgerTrack. With Newspoll’s numbers now at my disposal, I will shortly get to work on quarterly state breakdowns from the full BludgerTrack dataset.

UPDATE: The Fairfax papers have a JWS Research poll concerning the government’s performance over several issue areas, which is notable for the size of the gender gaps it identifies.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,130 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns: October-December”

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  1. [Any decent doctor would make sure you got the treatment you needed.
    I’ve heard all about these queues, why did I get treated within two months]

    One case is meaningless.

  2. The severity of the threat posed by bushfires and another heatwave moving across south-eastern Australia hinges largely on a tricky-to-predict low-pressure system off the Kimberley region of WA, meteorologists say.

    If, as some models suggest, the tropical low moves inland, a band of much-needed rain will bring heavy falls across central and South Australia, and into Victoria and southern NSW.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/weather-forecast-in-fire-zones-rain-may-ease-threat-in-south-australia-and-victoria-20150105-12i28f.html

  3. rossmcg@3994

    Bemused

    Yes, if there is rain in SA and Victoria later in the week as some models predict, it will come from a tropical low currently over land in the Kimberley.

    There has been heavy rain there in the last few days and there are even flood warnings for the desert ares in WA’s north.

    If the low moves south east you get rain. It may go the other way out over the ocean and turn into a cyclone and that will be completely different situation.

    As I said it is simplistic to say SA gets WA’s weather a week later.

    Check this out. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

    It usually takes a big cyclone up in the north west to influence Melbourne’s weather.

    I see a front from the south west coming through on Thursday.

  4. Nicholas 3985 this is often alleged but the Medicare benefit for both vaginal and caesarean delivery are the same about $1200. Of course the Medicare benefit may have little connection to the fee charged.

    The NWAU figures are an attempt to give total cost and are used by the public system to determine the funding for a public hospital. There is no advantage to the hospital in having more caesareans as these figures are costs not prices.

    It is often forgotten that in NSW about 12-15% of public hospital budgets come from the fees paid by private and compensable patients. If the private system collapsed NSW public hospitals would not only be overrun by the workload but the hospital budgets would also be slashed. The situation is slightly different in other states.

    Personally I don’t think the current private/public arrangement can last much longer – time to revisit Medicare Select (option c) from the Rudd Health Reform Commission.

  5. [As some philosopher asked “If an Australian MSM journalist went to Iraq would it make a sound ?”]

    Yes, we are very poorly served by the media in this country.

  6. OC

    [Medicare pays 85% of the Doctors’schedule fees in private practice but I am unaware of it paying private hospitals. ]

    As you say, Medicare doesn’t pay private hospitals.

    Ideology trumps facts on PB.

  7. 3991
    poroti

    victoria

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott went to Iraq & had the visit filmed by his personal videographer

    Leni Riefenstahl ?]

    precisely!

  8. Richard Farmer missed….

    [Maybe our Prime Minister just gets bored when on holiday. More likely he spent a few days in the sun contemplating why he was doing so badly in every aspect of the opinion polls but foreign policy. Perhaps his thoughts turned to showing that Foreign Minister lady a thing or two. Whatever. Off to Iraq Tony Abbott flew in a totally unnecessary mission.

    Then just to make matters politically unproductive the network television cameras and journalists were left behind. There is nothing more dangerous than a media spurned.

    The lads and lasses of News Corporation are already on the promote-Julie-Bishop trail. I expect them to lead a new round of leadership speculation very soon.]

  9. [@sprocket___: Tony Abbott would have liked George Bush in leather bomber jacket showing that Leftie Poofdah Blair what for #auspol http://t.co/NsDxp96FCG ]

    Perhaps some wag could add Biggles glasses and leather flying helmet to the photo. Perhaps also a caption like “Death cultists, I’m coming for YOU!”.

  10. Here’s an interesting freedom of speech argument. Should this anti-vaxxer be denied a visa on character grounds?

    [An American osteopath described as “one of the most successful anti-vaccinationists in the world” is set to tour Australia, prompting calls for the immigration department to deny the activist a visa.]

  11. Dio:

    Yes very interesting. On the same grounds should Monckton have been denied a visa as well when he did his anti AGW tour a few years ago?

  12. Dio @ 4015

    Not an argument; an indisputable fact.

    Any parent who does not vaccinate their child is a dangerous freeloading bastard relying on the conscientiousness of other parents contributing to herd immunity to protect their own child.

  13. What a bunch of sooks.

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has broken with tradition by not taking Australian journalists on a trip to Baghdad, even cutting out a television crew that was ready and waiting in nearby Dubai.

    Instead, Mr Abbott’s visit to the Iraqi capital to meet Australian troops based there was captured only by a cameraman and photographer who is employed by the Prime Minister’s office itself.

    To add to media frustration, the usual security protocol of not reporting a visit by a prime minister to a high-risk place until after the trip has finished was broken by an Iraqi news organisation nearly a week before Mr Abbott arrived.]

    Deprived of their drip feed, they’re chucking a mammoth tummy-up tantrum over what?

    A missed bloody photo-op, that’s what.

    Can our media get more trivial? Do they really think accompanying the PM to the Baghdad Green Zone makes them “war correspondents”? Do the video guys and the stills photographer believe DamienParer – or any one of the countless REAL journalists who have lost their lives pursuing their profession – would be applauding their courage under fire, from on-high?

    The one encouraging sign is that even News Corp was left behind. Abbott’s gone feral. They can’t control him anymore.

    If they could, they’d be telling him that bullshit “missions” in Iraq – another Middle Eastern strongman, another barbecue with the troops as props – and posing around in brand new, un-scuffed leather jackets one size too big, with that petroleum jelly holding his hair down into the “Statesman Look”, doesn’t cut it with the punters anymore.

    Someone in the Coalition, please get rid of this bloke. Tap him on the shoulder and then king-hit him. He’s a waste of space.

  14. Diogenes@4007

    OC

    Medicare pays 85% of the Doctors’schedule fees in private practice but I am unaware of it paying private hospitals.


    As you say, Medicare doesn’t pay private hospitals.

    Ideology trumps facts on PB.

    I learnt that lesson the hard way.

    Minor surgery in a private hospital – that’s where the specialist worked – thought I would pay difference between what Medicare reimbursed and the bill. wRONg!!!

  15. Oh well, I was wrong in my prediction this time last night that Murdoch would have an “exclusive” in the Oz this morning about Abbott’s little jaunt to Baghdad.

    This time it seems that Murdoch had no special access, just like the rest of the MSM. You don’t upset Murdoch and expect to get away with it. The question is, how will he make Abbott pay?

  16. citizen@4012

    @sprocket___: Tony Abbott would have liked George Bush in leather bomber jacket showing that Leftie Poofdah Blair what for #auspol http://t.co/NsDxp96FCG


    Perhaps some wag could add Biggles glasses and leather flying helmet to the photo. Perhaps also a caption like “Death cultists, I’m coming for YOU!”.

    He was shown on ABC news tonight engaged in some childish rant to the troops to that effect. Looked a right dill.

  17. Dio:

    Got a bunch of those cranks out this way spreading their misinformation. Best way to counter these people is with facts. You try to shut them out you play into their hands.

  18. Bushfire:

    It is indeed self indulgent whingeing. After the on water operational anti communication fortress from Morrison, should the press gallery be surprised?

  19. ‘There is nothing more dangerous than a media spurned.’

    Richard Farmer puts my opinion more colourfully and maybe more accurately.

    I always expected this government to be nasty; I never would have dreamed they would have been this politically inept. I cannot think of any Australian government that has scored more unforced own goals than this mob ….and who had as little political capital to waste in such wastefully courageous (in the Yes Minister sense) way.

  20. fess

    If we say Julien Blanc isn’t welcome in Australia, I think we should add the anti-vaxxer lady as well. There are just some people we don’t want here.

  21. [Perhaps some wag could add Biggles glasses and leather flying helmet to the photo. Perhaps also a caption like “Death cultists, I’m coming for YOU!”.]

    I did, six months ago… pic.twitter.com/t9yuIQRED8

  22. RuMourns of a 14 Feb poll may be wrong? Cam has an itchy finger..

    [@QLD_Poll_Watch: Report: Qld election expected on January 31, the week school returns. #qldpol]

  23. 4026

    Deportation was not the best thing to do with Blanc, it is just saying be a problem somewhere else that is not our repeatability. Think local, act local strikes again. It is however better than nothing because it provides public and official condemnation. They should have seriously looked into various incitement charges and putting him in prison.

  24. The anti-vaccination advocates pose a high risk to the public – not just to the misguided people who follow their advice, but to everybody! We are all put at risk by diminished herd immunity.

    Sherri Tenpenny does not advocate violence like the guy who runs the “how to choke women” seminars, but the consequences of her propaganda are just as bad. The Minister for Immigration should deny her a visa. She is allowed into the country, every organization that sponsors, cooperates with, or provides venues for her tour should be named, shamed, and boycotted by the Australian public.

  25. Re the anti vaccination woman, I think deny the visa as she presents a clear danger to others. Take me for example. Am pregnant but found out that an no longer immune to measles (even tho got vaccinated). Can’t get vaccinated again while pregnant so relying on community immunity to not get sick (catching measles can be quite dangerous during pregnancy).

  26. Dio
    “Ideology trumps facts on PB”?

    I thought it was a good factual discussion about where the money goes. I learnt and shared facts and feel all hot lemon tea and honey about it.

  27. [PREMIER Campbell Newman is expected to name the date Queenslanders will go to the polls tomorrow.

    Mr Newman is currently on holidays but could return tomorrow to potentially send voters to the ballot box as early as January 31.

    Senior Government sources said the Premier was concerned ongoing speculation over the date could create uncertainty and damage the state’s economic recovery.

    The minimum campaign period under Queensland law is 26-days meaning an election could be held as soon as Saturday, January 31.
    ]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/campbell-newman-to-name-queensland-election-date-tomorrow/story-fnn8dlfs-1227175326057

  28. [Mr Newman is currently on holidays but could return tomorrow to potentially send voters to the ballot box as early as January 31.]

    Is this even possible? And if so, wouldn’t that provoke a backlash from voters that they are being rushed to an election during school holidays?

  29. [Is this even possible? And if so, wouldn’t that provoke a backlash from voters that they are being rushed to an election during school holidays?]

    It’s all part of the new fad called pollie-bombing.

    First they wreck the environment. Then the economy. Then Christmas. Their leering mugs are everywhere.

    It’s desperation, of course, but why should WE care?

  30. virtualkat@4035

    Re the anti vaccination woman, I think deny the visa as she presents a clear danger to others. Take me for example. Am pregnant but found out that an no longer immune to measles (even tho got vaccinated). Can’t get vaccinated again while pregnant so relying on community immunity to not get sick (catching measles can be quite dangerous during pregnancy).

    Before I went anywhere near my pregnant daughter-in-law or the baby once born, I made a visit to the doctor to check my vaccination status. I will not risk others.

  31. [It’s all part of the new fad called pollie-bombing.]

    Well whatever it is, I’m over it. Used to be we’d get peace during the xmas/new year break, but not anymore.

  32. Love it when premiers and PMs are concerned about election speculation damaging the economy or whatever.

    Newman could end speculation by issuing a press statement saying the election will be on the due date.

    Queensland must be about the last state without fixed terms. Are there any others?

  33. OMG it looks likely

    [Andrew Greene @AndrewBGreene · 16m 16 minutes ago
    A date expected to be announced tomorrow for an election in Queensland, likely to be the end of January or early February via @COBrienBris]

  34. I think everyone is being harsh on Tony for his Iraqi press conference. It is obviously a cost saving to have media conferences without the media.

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