Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in South Australia

More depressing news for South Australia’s Liberals, this time from Newspoll.

The Australian is proceeding with its usual seasonal unloading of state results from Newspoll, the latest cab off the rank being South Australia. The poll supports the impression of Labor dominance recently provided by the Fisher by-election, showing Labor opening up a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred – an exact reversal of the election result in March, and a further two-point shift in Labor’s favour since the quarterly result of July-September. On the primary vote, Labor is up a point to 35%, the Liberals are down three to 33% and the Greens are up one to 10%. Notably, Newspoll continues to record a very high result for “others”, which in increasing a point to 22% is now doubling the election result.

The biggest shift on personal ratings is for Liberal leader Steven Marshall, and it’s in the wrong direction: his approval is down five to 35% with disapproval up eight to 42%, turning a net rating of plus six into minus seven. Jay Weatherill is also up five on disapproval to 42%, losing a gain he made in the in the July-September poll and returning him to where he was at the time of the election. However, he is also up a point on approval to 46%, and his lead as preferred Premier has widened from 45-30 to 47-29.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

74 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in South Australia”

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  1. [I know I am going to regret prodding this hornet’s nest but what exactly is the meaning of “Jai”? It’s obviously pejorative but other than misspelling “Jay”, I don’t know why you think it’s such a clever nickname, ESJ.]

    This is rather a failing of ESJ’s, who also believes he’s unleashing a zinger when he calls Julia Gillard “the Gillardine”, with equally little foundation. Of course, you get a lot of this sort or crap from the Labor camp, many of whom actually think calling Malcolm Turnbull “Talcum” exhibits something other than childlike stupidity. What makes it especially hard to take from ESJ is his delusion that he’s above partisanship.

  2. I understand it’s childish namecalling but at least with “Gillardine” and “Talcum” (as stupid as they both are), there’s a pun there. “Jai” is just a spelling variation of “Jay” – unless it’s a bogan name joke or something.

    Oh well, I guess it’s not important.

    In other SA political news, the writ for the Davenport by-election is issued today.

  3. My guess is that there will probably be somewhere in the vicinity of a 5 or 6 percent swing to Labor, but the Liberals will hang on.

    The advantage of the seat being a Liberal seat rather than an independent seat of late should be enough to get them home, I reckon.

  4. Eddie’s comments suggesting the Abbott Government will attempt to punish SA for voting the wrong way actually sounds believable. It’s just kind of nasty bullying Abbott would go for. It would be an incredibly vicious thing to do, of course, but right up Abbott’s alley.

  5. SA has7.3 per cent of the population ( declining) and gets 9.2 per cent of the gst money. WA has 10 per cent of the population (rising) and gets 5.2 per cent of the gst money. It’s hard to see that state of affairs persisting for long.

  6. Further SA ran a budget deficit of 1.2 bill on total revenues of 15.2 billion last year and has debt of about 7 billion. There’s a la la land Wayne swan style promise of a surplus in one year.

    On any reading it’s a basket case heading for a State Bank style ending, unless some transition to reality therapy is applied very soon.

  7. ESJ – your math is as bad as your logic.

    SA ran a $1.07b deficit last year, which was $161m better than projected. The mid-year update has the deficit reducing to $185m (after projecting it at $479m originally) in 2014-15 so even if the economy deteriorates in the second half of the year, there’s still $300m to play with just to get back to the previous projection.

    Net debt is projected to $4b, not $7b.

    If a government consistently beating deficit projections, with a debt ratio well under 30%, projecting ever increasing surpluses past 18 months *despite* projecting continuous real economic contraction, needs “reality therapy”, then I hate to think what the Liberal governments who keep having to write billions off their revenue projections need.

  8. At the risk of starting a never-ending debate, I’ll quietly say I prefer ‘maths’, not the American ‘math’.

    Apart from that, I agree with you, td.

  9. [Silly me for relying on the south australian budget papers for actual figures.]

    Come on. Nobody actually believes you’ve actually done any real research. You’re just copying and pasting opinions that have been fed to you, like the boring party hack you are.

    The desperate attempt to invoke the State Bank collapse verifies this as SA Lib hacks all have an obsessive fantasy with it being 1993 again.

    Also, the fact you’re trying to encourage William to ban you suggests you’re only here to spew bullshit and get banned as some sort of idiotic rite of passage or proof of victimhood that you can display at whichever conservative form you normally copy and paste at.

  10. Lol Carey yes it’s all a conspiracy you’ve unmasked. Faith over fact – maybe your suffering from false consciousness ?

  11. ESJ – silly you for relying on the estimates from May rather than the final budget outcome published by Treasury, or the mid-year update published in December.

    But please don’t let reality get in the way of your ranting.

  12. We’ve all seen that story before comrades, the surplus is just over the next hill alongside Dorothy, the wizard and Wayne swan.

  13. Anyway, back to the grown-up conversation, I think Arrnea Stormbringer is probably right at #57. While Labor are certainly motivated by the Fisher win, it’s hard to see them winning Davenport (which a factional hack Liberal MP has held for a long time, comfortably – nothing about it says “now a marginal”)

    This is actually where a good independent would’ve been really useful.

    Then again, we all wrote off Fisher for Labor and Davenport is probably the most marginal of the “safe” Liberal seats. (But it’s still a different kettle of fish than Fisher.)

    What will be interesting is that we will actually be able to compare the results with a literal 2PP result (not one that was derived from a race where one party stood back to help an independent across the line.)

    Also, I wonder if the Libs will try to spin it as “regaining ground” or “stopping the surge” if they win…

  14. I think if Labor can knock the margin in Davenport down to below two percent, they should be very proud of their performance – whether or not they win the seat.

  15. Frankly, if any 4th term government in Australia can get a swing to it, and have a clear 2PP majority in a poll, then:
    1) they are doing something right; or,
    2) the poll is a rogue; or,
    3) it is South Australia in 2015

    FWIW, I believe the ALP will get a small swing to it in Davenport 2PP wise as like in Fisher at the State Election, they are now pouring in some resources whereas back in March they did diddly squat and their vote suffered accordingly.

    If the ALP win Davenport then I would expect the State Liberal Party Room to resemble the battle scene from ‘Excalibur’.

  16. Edwina St John @ 24, why should the rest of Australia subsidise S.A? Because in the 1960’s, 70’s and 80’s the manufacturing states of Victoria, N.S.W and to a lesser degree S.A subsidised W.A and Queensland. Now that W.A do not need as much GST revenue because they collect a truck load of mining royalties, it’s time previous favours are returned. We are one country after all.

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